Rick Porcello Earns Spot In Tigers' Rotation
3-year forecast predictions?
Mine:
2009: 5.69 ERA, 103.1 IP, 52 BB, 65 K (1/2 year in AAA)
2010: 6.20 ERA, 106.0 IP, 55 BB, 51 K (arm injury, back injury, leg injury)
2011: 7.17 ERA, 36.2 IP, 44 BB, 29 K (arm injury, back injury, annnnnnndd boom goes the dynamite)
10 months ago
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2009 4.29 ERA, 175 IP 48 BB 124 K’s
2010 3.92 ERA, 204 IP 38 BB 148 K’s
2011 2.97 ERA, 212 IP 38 BB 175 K’s
I think he’s going to be REALLY good. I was pissed we passed on him for Moustakas then, and even though Moustakas has been good, I’m still pissed.
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 1, 2009 9:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i predict
2009- 4.45era
2010- 4.05era
after massive hype
2011- 5.65era
injury problems, mimics kerry wood.
by 9il on Apr 1, 2009 10:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
your prediction doesnt really mimic kerry wood at all...
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 2, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem
Maybe this is old-school methodology, but I think rushing prospects – even of this caliber – severely damages their long-term potential. Maybe I’m biased, and I remember all the times the Royals rushed hyped prospects, only to watch them fail colossally immediately before their eyes.
by Royals Nation on Apr 1, 2009 10:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
you mean like Arod and Griffey?
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 1, 2009 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Those were “once in a generation” talents, though. Well, maybe not once in a generation, but once every 5-10 years or so. Also, hitters are much easier to predict than pitchers…pitchers are much more volatile. I could be wrong, but from my judgment/recollection, hitters have less attrition and are safer bets, overall, to produce at the big-league level than pitchers.
by Royals Nation on Apr 1, 2009 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Porcello...
was too considered a ‘once in a generation’ talent. He was called by nearly everyone, the best HS pitching prospect since Josh Beckett. Beckett has been a damn fine major league pitcher, who didnt spend all that much more time in the minors than porcello. Also, most people think that pitchers can skip levels and adjust more easily than can hitters….pitching is based more on physical abilities and ‘stuff’ than hitting is….less adjustments involved.
Zack Greinke also came up at about the same age and has turned into a damn fine pitcher. You’re going to say that his psychological issues were caused by being up there too early, but even he has stated that it wouldve happened regardless of when he came up.
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 2, 2009 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think anyone ever described Porcello as a once in a generation talent
He was the best HS pitcher available in that draft. He was a legitimate first round draftee. That’s far, far from a “once in a generation talent.”
He was called by nearly everyone, the best HS pitching prospect since Josh Beckett.
The only one I heard say that was Boras when he was demanding a Beckett-level deal, adjusted for inflation. And even if he’s the best since Beckett, is Beckett a once in a generation talent? Certainly not. He’s a very good starting pitcher. Once in a generation talents are the few truly great players who only come around once every 20 years or so (think Bonds, ARod, Clemens).
Zack Greinke also came up at about the same age and has turned into a damn fine pitcher.
Think he suffered some ill effects from being rushed? I sure do.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Apr 2, 2009 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
or from having chemical imbalances in his brain....
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 2, 2009 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did he seem ready for the majors to you?
Outside of his performance (which sucked after his first partial season), he has said very clearly that he wasn’t ready. He wasn’t ready for Kansas City. He wasn’t ready for the fan attention. He wasn’t ready for the media attention. He wasn’t ready for the stress and strain of major league pitching. Greinke is the textbook example of an excellent prospect getting rushed to the majors before he was ready. Thankfully he’s gotten through the problems and his talent has carried him through despite being rushed.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Apr 2, 2009 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he was physically ready....
and EVERYTHING that you read about Porcello says that he is very mature, grounded and intelligent.
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 2, 2009 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, I guess if he's mature and intelligent, then by all means, rush him!
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Apr 2, 2009 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok....
i’ve explained why i think this is a good move….explain to me why it is a bad move. I made the Beckett comparison which was all over the place before the draft…pretty similar circumstances, pretty favorable result….
im curious why you think this, other than you’re completely unfounded ’they’re rushing him’….
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 2, 2009 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The various reasons I have for thinking that this isn't a good move
Taken as a whole, I think this is a compelling case for starting him in AA or AAA this year.
1. He’s just barely 20 years old.
2. He only has one year of minor league baseall experience under his belt.
3. He’s never pitched higher than the Florida State League (high-A).
4. He didn’t even dominate that league (5.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9).
5. Even if the best case scenario happens and it isn’t rushing him and he’s ready to pitch well in the majors right now, this has some real downside for the Tigers:
a. Pitching well means he stays on the team all year and probably from then on. This means the Tigers don’t get an extra year of team control. Two to three months in the minors would get them an extra year of team control.
b. Starting him as a full-time player now means that the six relatively inexpensive years the Tigers get out of Porcello will be his age 20-25 seasons. Those are not a major league pitcher’s most productive years. The most productive years would be more like 23-28, or perhaps 24-29. They are basically choosing to have their six years of team control over him at an early spot on his developmental curve, instead of at the best spot.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Apr 2, 2009 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I could see putting him in AA for a couple of months for the team control thing.....
but they’re obviously not worried about that. Detroits window is closing fast. Other than Porcello, they have nothing coming up through the minors. Their entire city is having huge financial issues, meaning that their payrolll will be coming down immensely in the coming years, meaning this may very well be one of the only years that they have him under control that they’re able to compete. Doesnt do a whole lot of good to have an ace in his age 26 season if there’s no other talent around him.
would you like to do some sort of charity wager on porcello this year? What kinda terms would you like?
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 2, 2009 1:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Again, I see the problems as 1) there’s a risk to his development that this is rushing him, 2) there’s good reason to believe he’s not ready yet in terms of his performance, 3) there’s a downside to the organization, especially in lining themselves up to not get his best years.
As far as the wager goes, feel free to suggest something and I’ll consider it.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Apr 2, 2009 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about 10 bucks on him being a better than league average pitcher?
There’s my charity of choice
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 2, 2009 2:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, but we have to determine how we're going to define "league average"
I really don’t want to use ERA with all of its extraneous, non-pitching elements. FIP?
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Apr 2, 2009 2:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does FIP take into account groundball rates?
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 2, 2009 2:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it doesnt....FIP will work against Porcello immensely...
due to his groundball tendancies
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 2, 2009 2:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, just strikeouts, walks and HR’s. I’d use tRA (which includes much more batted ball data — I believe including GB’s and FB’s) but I don’t know for sure what league average tRA is, nor if I’d be able to find out for sure at the end of the season. I do know that the average tRA for a #3 SP last year (by my calculations) was 4.98. Actually, if we were to use tRA+ (using a league average tRA as 100, like OPS+ and ERA+) then we could just set the benchmark at 100. If he’s higher than 100 you win and if he’s lower than 100, I win.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Apr 2, 2009 2:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that works for me.....
where do you find tRA+?
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 2, 2009 2:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do we want to have an IP minimum or just stick with whatever his tRA+ is at the end of the season, regardless of how much he ends up pitching in the majors?
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Apr 2, 2009 2:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hmmm....
I like TRA+ definitely. I think we should have a minimum IP…how about 100?
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 2, 2009 2:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm fine with whatever minimum you want
So if he pitches fewer than 100 MLB innings, then there’s no bet. But if he gets to 100, the bet’s on.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Apr 2, 2009 2:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that works
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 2, 2009 2:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stat Corner lists league average tRA for starters and relievers separately
so if you want to see if he’s a a league average starter, there you go.
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.
by devil_fingers on Apr 2, 2009 2:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, we’re going with his SP tRA+.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Apr 2, 2009 3:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
whats your opinion on this porcello thing d_f?
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 2, 2009 3:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know enough about him in particular
or prospects in general, especially pitchers.
Yes, yes, I know, that doesn’t stop me from spouting off about anything else…
Do you mean Porcello coming up this year, or just his future in general? usual caveats here, but the projection systems all say he’s not ready to be very good. My AL Central article averages his FIP from the “Big Three” and it comes out to 5.76, wtih all adjustments added in, that’s barely above replacement level.
CHONE and ZiPS doh’t like his ERA much, either —both around 5.75.
This is a case where there’s so little information on a guy that I think one has to trust in scouting opinions — and in this case, fans scouting opinions, since that’s what we are. And I really don’t know. On the face of it, I have to admit that it seems really early to bring a guy up.
On the other hand, Dave Cameron had a short article today (yesterday) defending the Porcello’s chances this season, and that’s an opinion to take seriously, at least for me.
So, to answer your question, I don’t know. I like reading you guys talk about it when you focus on “stuff” and age and things like that. It would be cool to hear (more) from other “prospect mavens” (at leat in my view around here re: Porcello, like doublestix, kscoliny, nwroyal, marbotty, or whoever follows the minors more closely and maybe has seen Porcello pitch (or at least footage).
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.
by devil_fingers on Apr 2, 2009 3:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, if Horacio Ramirez can succeed with a low strikeout rate and a high GB%, then I’m sure Porcello will too.
[…he said tongue-in-cheek, but with more than a little seriousness]
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Apr 2, 2009 3:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he's got the talent, performance and the maturity to handle the pressure/lifestyle....
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 2, 2009 1:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
there have been lots of players who have been 'rushed' who have failed...
and there have been lots of players who were given ‘adequate’ time in the minors who have failed….there’s no proven formula for success, so why not do what you think is best for your team, while also allowing the guys who get paid alot of money to build/develop a team actually develop your most prized possession?
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 2, 2009 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+100
I think this is more about worrying about the 2009 rotation than doing what is best to develop Porcello. When you think you are going to be in contention, sometimes it makes sense to do what is best for the big team in the short-term rather than what is best for a prospect’s development. But Porcello is that organization’s one and only genuinely good prospect. I think they would be better served to maximize his development, rather than rush him and get the extra win he’ll give to the team.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Apr 2, 2009 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pulled out of my posterior
2009 – 5.74
2010 – 4.12
2011 – 2.79
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Apr 2, 2009 10:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i dont think theres any way he makes it through the full season at the mlb level with a 5.74 ERA
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 2, 2009 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He might not be predicting a full season of MLB pitching from Porcello in 2009
It wouldn’t be too shocking if he didn’t pitch too well early in the season and got demoted and replaced in the rotation by Robertson or Miner.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Apr 2, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What's the deal with Zach Miner?
I’m not saying he’s a stud or anything, but it seems like he’s never awful. CHONE and ZiPS (too lazy to look up PECOtA) both see him as around 4.5 FIP, and I know that’s influenced by his time as a reliever, but a team could do a lot worse than make him their #4 (maybe the Royals can get him to pitch opening day…)…
I just read he made the rotation for the beginning of the season beecause (surprise!) Jeremy Bonderman is already hurt, but it sounds temporary. Does he not have the stuff to be a full-time starter?
Don’t know why I fixated on this kid… Maybe it’s RR’s jokes about his name(s).
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.
by devil_fingers on Apr 2, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ooops, sorry
CHONE’s FIP for him is 3.86
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.
by devil_fingers on Apr 2, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fun fact
Miner was drafted by the Braves before being involved in a trade with Roman Colon in exchange for Kyle Farnsworth.
He is destined to play for us.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Apr 2, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
heh
well, FIP and ERA like him, but tRA is less of a fan…
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.
by devil_fingers on Apr 2, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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