Gotta Blame It On Something...

Hillman puts Butler at first and Jacobs at DH

He’s still a very good pitcher when healthy. He pitched very well. When a team doesn’t get a lot of hits, it isn’t necessarily merely the fault of the hitters. Someone is throwing those balls to them.

And Olivo isn’t good, but he usually hits lefties well. He didn’t today. He did on Opening Day. That’s baseball.

But the eight others are doing so hot right now either. He’s what I’d expect of a nine-spot hitter.

A ready example of NYR’s favorite rant – ST means nothing.

Same old Royals? Seems like it. No bats, mental errors.

knowing that all players have bad days, he just looked bad today. How cranky will he be when Buck plays more? He does have a rocket arm though.

Ponson - If I posted on Thursday, that Ponson was going to throw 6 innings & give up 4 runs, 2 or 3 of which were flukey at best, 99% of you would have been calling me a homer & the other 1%, NY, would have written a 13 paragraph summation of his last 3 years stats & projections as to why that was impossible…

Farnsworth - As I wrote in the game thread, the fact that he has been written off for allowing a bunt base hit – when Gordon was out of position, a broken bat single and a HR to a HOF’er is laughable. I understand that he isn’t supposed to be a #1 option out of the pen, and the way he was used today was a better reflection of how he should be used in the future, but he looked AWESOME today. Was the ‘lack of pressure’ as some put it (which is also laughable, it’s the goddamn home opener v. former teammates in a 3 run game) a factor? I’m not smart enough to estimate that, and quite frankly, neither are you.

The Line-up -Everyone can be clumped in together, because unfortunately, nobody really stands out. Petite was good, he was getting Livan Hernandez circa 1997 calls, there were shadow issues and it is game #4, so some slack needs to be afforded, but it doesn’t look good. Aviles looks like he is feeling the weight of expectations especially, and that frightens me.

The Defense - Ugh. In their defense, both balls @ Aviles & Jacobs in the first inning were hit hard. To call them out, they both played it like Roger freaking Dorn. Jacobs made a nice play late in the game, a really nice play actually to ‘redeem’ himself, whereas Aviles did the same stupid shit he did last year, where he tries to throw behind that runner @ 2B. Last year it cost us a game 0 if memory serves, it was a game in the epic losing streak – with the same stupid play. Today it cost Ponson a run.

I know the offense hasn’t performed up to par or anywhere near where par is but going by what Denny was saying and seeing the shadows myself I’m sure it wasn’t the ideal conditions from the 5th inning on. The Yanks had two hits(gardner infield single) and KC had a weak Teahen infield single. If the Yanks were sluggin around on Ponson and Wright then I would be extremely worried but the unusual start time lead to some bad shadows.

I’m going to try and get some photos up tonight while I’m at work (if I can find my USB cable at least). Didn’t take a whole lot, but the stadium looked pretty good.

Here’s a quick few snippets:

• You can’t go into the dugout concourse (below the stands) unless you have a 100 level ticket. Yeah. The riff raff are not welcome.
• Good luck getting a hot dog upstairs on a busy game. The lines are ridiculous and they have so many specialized consession stands (like the BBQ and KC Cantina, etc) that do not offer traditional favorites. I ended up going downstairs and paying a roaming vendor for one and I highly suggest you do the same. Not only is the wait shorter (especially if you grab it before heading upstairs), but you’re also directly supporting a working bum like my Dad. They only make commission, so I feel proud that I gave someone’s family an extra $0.90 of income. Add on the tip and he’s doing even better than he thought!
• Did not get out to the outfield, way way way too crowded. I’ll take some shots over there Sunday.
• You cannot get from 3rd base to 1st base and still be able to watch the game the entire time, but that’s not a huge deal.

I partially blame the Royals offense, but that had to be one of the worst umpires I have ever seen. I realize that Pettite is elite and has unofficially “earned” a larger strike zone, but he had more than one call that was nearly 10 inches off the plate. Ponson started getting similar [terrible] calls around the 4th, but did anyone see the pitch that hit dead center and went for ball 4?? I simply cannot criticize batters when they are dealing with a terribly ambiguous strike zone.

As far as Ponson, I think he was able to benefit from the umpire in the middle innings, but early on he couldn’t miss a bat. I can’t recall many swings and misses… everything that was hit was tattooed. Jacobs and Aviles did not properly field the balls that were hit at them, but they were absolute missles. Neither went for an error.

I hope whoever calls the game tomorrow calls a much tighter, consistent strike zone for the sake of our hitters, not HoRam. Tomorrow is going down as a loss, no question, but the offense needs to settle in. Someone remind ’em that these games count.

P.S. Why the hell did Trey stack the middle of the lineup with left-handed hitters against one of the best left-handed pitchers in the league? Someone please bitch-slap him.

I was amazed to see LLLRL. Could have been a good game for Buck to DH and sit Jacobs.

The Royals without the option to turn on Gload Mode.

Gload totally would’ve snagged that shot to 1B. If he was playing 2B, he would’ve made the smart play and tagged the lead runner. And is there any question that he wouldn’t have let that grounder get by him like Aviles did?

Losses directly caused by Gload trade: 1.

I would actually disagree with the premise that Ponson didn’t pitch terribly — he was on pace for 6 runs over 9 ip. If he continues to pitch like this, the Royals are almost certain to lose every game in which he appears.

Since Pettite pitched so well, it would have been better that Ponson had given up like 12 runs in 2 innings — we were going to lose anyway, but this would hasten his departure from the rotation, and hopefully the 25 man roster. Instead, we’ll see him out there at least another two starts.

My Simulator has the Yankees with a 60.19% win probability for today’s game, whereas Vegas is drinking the Yankee kool-aid and has them at around a 66% favorite. Vegas is also a little low on the over/under line. My simulator has it at 9.35 runs as opposed to ~8.7 from vegas. Good luck.

Here’s some more simulator output.
Top 5 most likely final scores from today.

1. KC 4-3
2. KC 3-2
3. KC 5-4
4. NYA 4-3
5. NYA 3-2

May seem wierd to see the underdog ahead in the three most likely final scores, but that’s just a function of run distribution and the fact that the home team wins way more one run games than the road team due to batting last.

Next… most likely to hit a HR.
1. Mark Teixeira
2. Mike Jacobs
3. Xavier Nady
4. Jose Guillen
5. Hideki Matsui

Most likely to hit a Triple
1. David DeJesus
2. Mark Teahen
3. Coco Crisp
4. Robinson Cano
5. Johnny Damon

Pitching Lines:
Sabathia: 7-IP, 5.9-K, 1.6-BB, 0.5-HR, 3.11-FIP
Ramirez: 6.5-IP, 2.9-K, 2.2-BB, 0.6-HR, 4.44-FIP

Note 25,000 simulations for this game were ran, and were based on my best guess lineup. Some of the stats may of course came out a bit differently if the lineup changed substantially.

vr, Xei

yeah, yeah…

of being in SRO, on the RF wall. interesting vantage point for $10, but i think i’ll take the hy-vee view level from now on. i’m sore, sunburnt and hungover, but had a blast.