It seems like the definition of a closer is someone who gets the 9th inning save opportunities. I wouldn’t hand over a bunch of save opps. to some other relievers before moving Soria to the rotation. That would be a waste of Soria’s talent, and the limited sample of data wouldn’t tell you whether pitcher X or Y would make a good closer. Basically we can look at the stats of current Royals relievers to determine who the next best closer would be, and I think it’s Cruz. I don’t buy into “closer magic” or a “closer mentality.” I think that is a creation of sports media which prefers to overvalue intangibles. The good news is that the Royals have some bullpen depth and multiple options for closer if Soria moved to the rotation (Cruz, Tejeda, Mahay, eventually even Rosa). Of course, this is all moot. Poz was right when he said that the Royals have made their decision on how they are going to use Soria.

during a strikingly similar discussion.

D-I batboys, the gift that keeps on giving

I don’t personally know any of them.

However, with my years of reading the works of L. Ron Hoover of the Church of Appliantology, I decided to do an exercise to figure out a new winning strategy for the Royals by tapping this under-utilized source of wisdom.

After subsisting on low-protein gruel all morning, I emerged from my mother’s basement to sit in the sauna (closed the bathroom door, put a towel over the crack, cranked up the shower as hot as it would go. Sat on the toilet [low-protein gruel has a lot of fibre]), and exteriorized.

I was 3 feet back of my head, then I was floating. I began to fly. Through the walls I went. I was like Horatio Caine without the sunglasses, speeding to where I could get the information I needed. After a quick stop at Hemet, CA, I tripled the speed of sound on my way to South Florida. From far above, I spotted a swampy baseball diamond. Lighting there, I spotted the wise man from whom I would gain the knowledge I needed. The older man in the manager’s uniform—he was standing between my disembodied self and the person with whom I needed to speak.

Yes, it was the young man who had the knowledge I needed. His arms were bearing a pair of bats in one hand, a bag of balls in the other. His face was clear and pale (when not spray-tanned, I gathered), yet when he turned around, I could see what appeared to be scores of pimples through his greasy white practice jersey. Why did a batboy need a practice jersey? I had no time to to ponder such questions, however, as my energy for exteriorization was running low. I know not how he sensed by presence.

"Greetings, traveller," he drawled. "I gots here the knowledge you seek."

"You wanna maximize yer pitching talent, right? Well, you gotta tell Moore to stop screwing with yer ‘pen. He’s goin’ backwards. In fact, I thunk it over and I came up with a strategery that will gay-run-tee the Royals will shut the other guys down. Mock it up yourself. If having a real shut-down closer makes the game eight innings, wouldna shut-down set-up guy make it a seven inning game? That what you there had when Zack was setting up for Sora. Let’s carry that reasonin’ out to its logical whatfor. Why not have Meche pitch the seventh? And when Hooch is well-done, he can pitch the sixth! I don’t trust that Bannister fella. He may play the game, but with all the textin’ that fat lil’ fella and the numbers and the nerds in the blogs, I’d trade him fast to free up money what for to re-sign a good defensive first baseman to a big extension. But think about it: Hooch, Meche, Greinke, Soria. That four innings of shut-down relief! I’m not even sure I could hit a rope one out of every six times agin’ those dudes! All you gots to do is get some starters, it doesn’t matter where. John Bale, Kyle Davies, they’ll prolly do. They just needs to go five! And who cares about those parts the game. The closer to the end, the more valuble they is. And you wastin’ ‘em in the beginning of the game! Get those worthless innins’ down to five, and you can gay-run-tee the boys will be dominatin’ like the 1996 Yanks in no time. Hoo-wee!"

I had so many more questions. How would I ever transmit this wisdom to the blog world? Would anyone believe me? After all, although I talked to someone who had played the game a little bit at some point, I had not. As I faded, I faintly heard my interlocutor shouting "….will explode!!! 1111!!!" (That’s right, I heard the 1s.)

It was dark. Three feet back. I was in my body, re-awakening to my limited, meat body. And then I heard a beautiful, shrieking voice.

It was my mother.

"Devil _. Fingers! You in the bathroom AGAIN, boy? I’m here watchin’ my stories and you either on that computer box downstairs or in this bathroom again. You better not be usin’ my nice towels. I know what you do in there!"

I was home.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on May 20, 2008 9:55 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions 1 recs

and you’ve only got innings 1-5 to worry about!

Do you doubt that he can throw out of windup? It’s not like it’s difficult. And why is throwing out of a windup important? If he can get good velocity, movement and control out of throwing out of the stretch, why is throwing out of the windup better?

Why can he not pitch out of the stretch all day? It makes screw all difference, the actual mechanics of pitching are identical. If he is happy in the stretch, let him pitch from the stretch.

but this is boneheaded. :)

It makes a difference if a pitcher who is fine in the windup cannot pitch from the stretch, because pitchers often need to pitch from the stretch; it makes no difference whatsoever if a pitcher who is fine in the stretch cannot pitch from the windup, because a pitcher never ever has to pitch from the windup. What you’re saying, to offer an anal goe, is that even having a fully-outfitted kitchen, you wouldn’t hire a cook who you never saw use a microwave even though you’re perfectly comfortable with his ability to use a stove.

Sure, the Royals won the next two games in Chicago but only on the backs of great pitching performances.

Exactly. Add Soria to the rotation and you’d have even more good pitching performances. How good does Meche-Greinke-Davies-Soria sound at this point?

So I would propose that to tease these numbers out- check out offensive output for 3, 5, and 7 days after a blown save versus under "normal" non-blown save circumstances over a fairly large data set of blown saves.

That would be interesting, but I’d bet my life that over a large sample of data, you’d see no difference in hitting after blown saves.

The one argument that at one point I halfway bought into was that having a good closer helps starting pitchers pitch better because they don’t feel like they have to get everything perfect in order for their team to win the game. The theory went that starters would then throw free and easy and would be more willing to challenge hitters and not nibble or be afraid to throw strikes. But I’ve seen at least two studies done comparing SP performances with good closers as compared to with poor closers (a large sample of data over many years) and both studies found no difference (actually one study found that the SP’s with poor closers pitched just a little better, but the difference was probably statistically insignificant).

He points to the numbers, but then says that the intangibles trump the numbers.

I’m all for providing numbers to support an argument whenever possible, and I’m certainly quick to point out logical holes, but I think we’ve gone too far when merely mentioning a decision’s impact on team confidence is deserving of critique.

JoPo does more than mention the pyschological element. He basically says that his guesstimate of the psychological value of having a shutdown closer trumps the numbers which weigh heavily in the other direction. His opinion which is based solely on gut-level analysis was very much deserving of criticism.

As Royals fans, we’ve all seen enough long losing streaks to know that team confidence does affect team performance.

Yes, and Soria would actually likely help the Royals win more games. Wouldn’t that help team confidence? And how much of an opportunity does a closer have to end losing streaks? Not much. When the Royals went through that horrendous 12-game losing streak last year, Soria couldn’t come into the game in the 9th inning, get three strikeouts and manufacture a win for the team. But if he’d made a couple of starts in that streak, he could have pitched really well and genuinely given the Royals a chance to end the losing streak.

I think it is impossible to project Soria’s numbers as a starter.

No batter in MLB has ever faced him twice in the same night. Jose Lima, in his brief, magical stint with the Royals had several outings where the guy looked like nails innings 1 – 3, then once guys started seeing him repeatedly, all of a sudden the game went to shit and he would get cuffed around the yard. (note – I am not comparing Mex to LimaTime Mex clearly has beeter ‘stuff’, I’m just merely drawing a paralell. You could insert dozens of pitchers in Lima’s place in my example and a few from our roster – Jamie Wright, Ho-Ram & Tejada have all been effective releivers and effective starters for 3 innings)

I just love how everyone also just forgets that GMDM and other real life talent evaluators have said that they feel like Mex’s mechanics make him a high-injury risk if extended out to sa starters workload. I suppose the counter-argument is that they are all lying to cover their tracks of their terrible decision to leave him as an All-Star closer, I guess that makes sense too (rolls eyes).

and if it weren’t for the Rule 5 rules, I’d bet money that if they Royals could have sent Soria to the minors there, he would have started, dominated, and been in the KC rotation by mid-2007/ start 2007.

But they feel so comfortable in those three games, that a warm, fuzzy feeling extends to the other two games.

This

Plus this:

Plus this:

Equals this:

but I think in the relative short term, the value difference would make it a moot point

do closers have longer careers than SPs really?

But it’s far too complicated to answer. This post helped me grasp just how hard it is to predict pitcher injuries and how extraordinarily unnatural and complex the act of throwing a baseball is. Pitcher abuse points are wildly imperfect. The only thing that’s reasonably reliable (but still makes everything a crapshoot) is a pitcher’s injury history. But the short answer is nobody really knows.

And Mariano Rivera, despite how good he is, would be a clear liability for any team not called the Yankees because of his gargantuan, 8-figure a year salary – he just doesn’t throw anywhere close to enough innings to be as valuable as an all-star starter or position player.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=844&position=P#value

Since the comment here seems to be that his leaning toward intangible aspects of baseball somehow lessen his qualifications as a baseball analyst

Fixed.

The title of this fanshot is tongue-in-cheek. Although I think it is an accurate representation of this one article. I’ve read lots stuff from Joe in the Star and on his blog. I know that he’s into stats (although not deep into stats). I know he’s not just touchy-feely. I like his writing, and his baseball analysis is decent. But his strength is in prose, not analysis. And he went with his gut on this one, and I think he was off the mark.

If the Royals moved Soria to the rotation and he had a sustained period of struggles, would we then say failed experiment and move him back into the closer role?

Yes.

Because it is that kind of back and forth that people used as an excuse for Jeremy Affeldt’s failures.

First, Affeldt was a two-pitch pitcher with questionable control. Fans can blame whatever they want, but he sucked as a starter because he didn’t have the pitches or control for it. Second, over multiple years, Affeldt went from starting some to relieving to starting to relieving. That’s lots of “back and forth.” Having Soria try starting for a while, fail and then move back to the bullpen to say isn’t a lot of “back and forth.” Nor is there any reason to believe that a stint as a starter would hurt his ability to be a dominant closer.

What can we honestly expect from him if we move him into the rotation? Someone earlier said Meche-Greinke-Davies-Soria. So we can expect him to be a fourth starter?

I think he’d pitch at the level of a #2 starter (not quite as good as Meche has been, but in that vicinity).

I also think it is silly to think we can just throw him into the rotation with the season underway.

Nobody said his move to the rotation would have to happen this week, this month or this year. But I don’t see a problem with stretching him out during the season and transitioning him to the rotation slowly during the season. That would be better than starting the season with him in the rotation and potentially pushing his IP up to 180 or more when he’s been pitching a lot fewer than that. What’s the downside to moving him into the rotation during the season?

FWIW

If anything, i would have been an anti-bringing Greinke up until he is ready to start arguer

There was a pretty vocal contingent that wanted him left in the pen.

as could have nunez or ramirez. if hamulack didn’t have a 108.00 era, i’d say give him a shot.

even the worst pitcher in the bullpen now (Waechter or maybe Wright) would’ve been the best guy out of the pen during the Baird days.

The problem back then (most of the last 15 years) was that the Royals had horrible closers and horrible bullpens overall. Thankfully the Royals have many pitchers who are better now than Hernandez, Blowtallico and others were with the Royals. The Royals now actually have good relievers, unlike those other teams.

Most importantly, we shouldn’t let the ghosts of past bad closers lead us to bad decisions.

And smart teams don’t guy out and overspend on closers (and good, established closers with lots of saves always cost more than they are worth). Smart teams acquire or promote good relievers who don’t have the expensive “closer” tag and turn them into good closers. There are many, many examples of this. The Royals have good in-house solutions in Cruz, Tejeda and Mahay (with Rosa available to step in to shore up setup/middle relief duties.

But seriously, he would then be like a great many sports writers who can put together an interesting, witty, well written column, but whose analysis is no better than the average, moderately informed fan. Thankfully, JoPo is much better than that.

the “original” stats guy?

i hate that drunk. really. 3 years as an AM radio board op during cards games will make you understand why he sucks.

I’m trying to figure out what has the most value:

A. The average KC Star article reader comment
B. The average 12-year-old’s Twitter post (is it called a tweet?)
C. An extemporaneous sentence spoken through a burp.

I think it is a 3-way tie.