Analyzing 3-0 Count Statistics

by CollininCalifornia on Apr 13, 2009 6:22 PM EDT

While watching the Royals game last night, I had a small debate with my buddies about what Billy Butler should do once he found himself in a 3-0 count (in the bottom of the 8th with 2 out).

I said that if Butler were to make contact on a 3-0 pitch, he'd still make an out 70% of the time, according to basic BABIP principals. However, if he were to take a walk, he'd never make an out and would get the free base to boot.

I sounded like I knew what I was talking about so nobody really argued with me, but I'm not so sure I was correct. Today I was looking for stats on 3-0 counts. I found a nice excerpt from "The Book" here, but I'm having trouble making sense of the numbers.

The BABIP for a batter in a 3-0 count is .313 -- so I was slightly wrong in that they'll only make an out 68.7% of the time. From what I can tell (I'm using the through counts, not the at counts), once a batter gets to 3-0, he will hit .296 and get on base at a .725 clip. It seems the OBP is not batting average driven, but largely walk driven.

Am I correct in thinking Butler (or most any hitter in any situation) should take on 3-0 and try to work the BB? Are the numbers I'm referencing even relevant to this question? Are there stats out there that show what the best course of action is once a batter reaches 3-0?

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I just want to throw something into the mix

This isn’t anything like a comprehensive answer to your questions, and it only serves to complicate the issue. But I just wanted to add that I don’t think there is any single answer to the question of what a batter should do on a 3-0 count. I think in most instances, the right thing to do is take. But other variables play into it, including but not limited to:

- Game situation: If there is a batter on third base with fewer than two outs in a one run game (just to give an extreme example) and on a 3-0 count a batter sees a good pitch that he knows he can get in the air and hit for a good sac fly, then perhaps he should do that.

- The pitcher: if the pitcher usually has good control and has even shown good control earlier in the game, then there is good reason to believe he’ll throw a good hitter’s pitch on 3-0. The batter might be advised in that situation to look for his pitch in his spot and if he gets it, he should swing.

- The batter: does he usually have good pitch recognition? If so, then perhaps he can be counted on to recognize if that 3-0 pitch is a good hitter’s pitch. If so, perhaps he should swing.

Just a few thoughts off the top of my head.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Apr 13, 2009 6:40 PM EDT reply actions

I would go with the 2nd situation almost always

Look for one pitch, which you know you can do something with and if it doesn’t come or you are not sure, just take it.

From the link, it shows a wOBA of .570 for 3-0, I am betting alot of those 3-0 hits are long flyballs.

by Jeff Zimmerman on Apr 13, 2009 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Of course many batters can't be trusted to recognize a good hitter's pitch

It may look good early, but because the batter couldn’t recognize that it was a sinker or breaking ball, it wasn’t a hitter’s pitch by the time it got near the strike zone. And I don’t think this is just true of the worst batters either.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Apr 13, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions

One Pitch, One place

that is all you should be looking for as a hitter. By one place, I dont mean, “Fastball inside”, I mean SPECIFICALLY within like a little 6 inch box…You’ve already got your swing worked out in your head, and if the pitch is there, you kill it, if it isn’t you take.

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Apr 13, 2009 7:12 PM EDT reply actions

On 3-0

You take the pitch unless it’s exactly where you want it. Period. (Assuming you even have a green light, of course.) You have zero reason to “protect the plate” on 3-0, you have zero reason to play guesstimate. The only downside to NOT swinging is that you might end up with a 3-1 count, and there is about a 60% league-wide chance that you’ll instead be jogging 90 feet.

In short, taken without any external context, you have a 60% chance of reaching base by not swinging, and about a 60% chance of making an out if you DO swing.

This space for rent.

by jonfmorse on Apr 13, 2009 7:24 PM EDT reply actions

have to agree

this thought I got the other day when BigJim took Farny downtown, which Denny echoed on the postgame show … take that pitch and it’s likely you’ll see it again on the 3-1. That’s what happens when the pitcher is silly enough to serve up the same pitch twice in a row to someone who’s already got 542 career home runs. Likely take on 2-0, and certainly take on 3-0. (I know my 2-0 is going to be disputed … far more situational diversity in that count) just my $0.02

by BillyMojo on Apr 14, 2009 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions