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Random Idea: Trade Hochevar?

After reading some postgame stuff about today's win, I read some comment about our pitching depth. Not sure who it was by, but it got me to thinking about Hochevar being in AAA. We can obviously most likely cancel this discussion if Kyle Davies is only a borderline #4 pitcher, but for the rest of this, we're going to assume Davies is going to be a legit #3 or better.

We have an incredible 1-2 punch, add in the Davies assumption and we have a 1-2-3 that is in the top third of all baseball, and most likely better. If Ponson can be just a fringe 4/serviceable 5, we have a little more depth to work with.

Our current pitching depth leads me to considering trading Hochevar now. I am not advocating it, just exploring potential options. I fully understand that pitching depth can go at any moment and that our pitching won't be THIS good, but I think it would be at least something to look into. This might especially enticing if we are in the thick of a playoff race and a bat could put us over the top.

We need hitting, badly. We need someone that can get on base with regularity. We need someone with power. Getting proven guys with insane costs won't work for our club. We need to utilize some of our trade chips to try and acquire some elite hitting talent before it gets a proven tag. Pitching is the currency of baseball after all. All we've burned so far have been fungible relievers, which can easily be replaced by investing millions into. Hochevar just HAS to be sitting there burning a hole in Dayton's pocket.

What I would explore would be trying to trade Hochevar for a MLB ready hitting prospect or one with a little bit of experience. Hochevar had a decent season with the peripherals, enough so to inspire confidence in his future, so I don't believe he has lost a ton of value, but he isn't going to be valued like a #1 pick anymore.

I like his potential, but I don't love it.  I think he has definite value to clubs because he has #2 starter ceiling and most likely #4 floor.

Who would we trade him for though?

-Max Ramirez would be a great bat at C and i've heard defensive concerns are overblown.
-Chase Headley or Kyle Blanks. It's hard to evaluate prospects that hit half the time in PETCO, but you have to like the power potential to go along with an OBP that projects to be slightly above average. Blanks would alleviate a future logjam at 1st for them. He isn't an OF.
-Reid Brignac- may not be a superstar, but a young SS with some power would be excellent. Would be hampered by Rays depth at pitching. Maybe we could swing a 3 way.
-Austin Jackson could be another target if the Yanks sweetened the pot with Ian Kennedy. At least i'd never have to read another Ian Kennedy for other teams top prospect garbage trade proposal.


Anyways, these are just a few. I'll toss in more, maybe other people have ideas of what we could snag.

Like I said, if Davies is not for real then all bets are off, but it seems like it would be worth just putting some feelers out to see what the market is like for Hochevar.

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Comments

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Only if we get a super-elite prospect

I could see Hochevar+ for Chris Davis because Texas always needs pitching, but I don’t expect anything to happen. Let’s not forget that HoRam is still in the rotation. Even if Sir Sidney proves useful, Hochevar is around for years.

by BrRoyal on Apr 14, 2009 8:31 AM EDT reply actions  

I'm not saying Texas will do that

Only that it’s within the realm of possibility, and he’s the kind of talent the Royals would consider trading for.

by BrRoyal on Apr 14, 2009 8:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

meh

I’d like to think it was an option, but I wouldn’t think that Hoch would be a guy that is highly coveted…

Yea, he was the #1 overall pick, but he shouldn’t have been, and I think basically everyone but Allard Baird & David Ladnier agree on that (I think our former draft guys name was Ladnier, wasn’t it?).

He’s seen moderate success at the MLB level at a (sort of) young age, so he has some value, but I think names like Headley, C. Davis & Brignac are a step above what he would bring in return.

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Apr 14, 2009 8:44 AM EDT reply actions  

His trade value has to be down quite a bit I would think

I can’t see him landing any of those guys. Maybe Ramirez. But he’s worth more to us than he is to anyone else.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 14, 2009 9:02 AM EDT reply actions  

This would be trading low on Hochevar

And the Royals really don’t have that much quality SP depth, even if Davies proves to be a genuinely good and reliable starting pitcher.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Apr 14, 2009 9:31 AM EDT reply actions  

I'm not so sure

maybe its just me, but I still think he has to have most of the value he had when he was a prospect in the minors. Like I said earlier, this isn’t the valuation of a #1 pick but still, a starter with #3 ability and #2 potential should have a lot of value.

Maybe I’m looking at it from an odd perspective though. I feel like there are a few GM’s that emphasize defense that could possibly work a favorable deal for Hochevar. He still had a 4.42 FIP last year in his first go around in the American league. He also had an extremely low 60.2 strand rate, or LOB%, whichever you prefer to call it. I don’t think he is a crap pitcher, so he would definitely regress to the mean there.

It probably is lower value though than we’d prefer. I’m just considering it because say perhaps he is ONLY a low end 3/4 guy. Then I’d probably try and swing that deal because he has to have at least that much value.

I agree though, it is probably a year too early to trade him and give up our only really trustworthy pitching depth.

by wildthang on Apr 14, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

i don't think it can necessarily be considered "selling low"

it’s selling low if he turns into a quality SP, but all we have is projections and an expected value. maybe he does, maybe he doesn’t, but you would be breaking even as long as you get the expected value back in a trade.

and specific to hoch’s situation, if he pitches with this infield behind him, he may look like a worse pitcher than he really is (or would be) in a different ballpark with a better defensive infield behind him.

by benfunke on Apr 14, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not sold on Sid

I think what we saw from Ponson on Friday was the best we can expect. The Yanks hit him hard, just mostly at our guys. When they chose to catch them, we got outs. Some nights, those rockets are going to miss more gloves.

I believe Hoch will be up here as soon as the service time deadline passes. Ponson moves back a spot in the rotation and Hoch starts regularly in the 4th spot. Ho Ram goes into middle relief, where he was pretty effective last season.

by Big Guy on Apr 14, 2009 10:16 AM EDT reply actions  

Ponson had an ERA of 5 and was an 8-5 on the year....

he was actually pretty good in 02-04 so he has a chance to be decent this year. Would i take 11-7 with a 5.00 ERA this year in 32 starts for a 5th starter???? Well that’s what he did last year if you projected his stats another quarter of the year.

Therefore, we can use Hochevar as a 4th starter and I agree with some of the posters that his value is low right now, and he wouldn’t yield much in trade, especially not first round value (and he was the top pick in a the first round, and not even getting first round value for a guy taken 3 years ago is pretty poor)

Leave him and let him develop. Davies and Hochevar are the key to the season (Butler/Gordon’s development are second)

by GobbleforCyoung on Apr 14, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

We should see if CO is interested

They have been trying (not very successfully) to get groundball pitchers to help keep the ball in that park. It is tough to judge their talent, but I could CO want him.

by Jeff Zimmerman on Apr 14, 2009 10:59 AM EDT reply actions  

Swap him for Greg Reynolds

In a swap of high first round draft pick disappointments.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 14, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

This has nothing to do with this post but i just had to get it out there,

I play real spots, i’m not trying to be the best at exercising.

"I can resist everything but temptation." - oscar wylde

by cfizzle on Apr 14, 2009 11:57 AM EDT reply actions  

no.

Everyone's recruits look better than ours.

by 306008 on Apr 14, 2009 1:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Why would KC look at trading a pitcher like Hochevar

who has never had a sustained opportunity? Yes, I know he pitched most of last year – as a rookie. Give the kid a chance to succeed or fail. I believe Hochevar is a key piece to Royals 09 season. He will give them a solid 4th starter for 3/4 of season (after May 1). If KC has 4 solid starters in rotation, their chance to win the AL Central go up even if offense is shaky.

by daveyork on Apr 14, 2009 2:34 PM EDT reply actions  

that's a good point, but

what if they get a quality young catcher who can defend and have a +OBP? doesn’t that also help their chances?

i’m not saying i disagree with you—i’m just saying that there may be pieces to the puzzle more important than Hoch.

by benfunke on Apr 14, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like keeping Hochevar

but I would keep him generally available, especially for OF or SS help. But i truly believe that he was make over 20 starts and perform at above a level 4 starter this year.

by Chyladin on Apr 14, 2009 4:02 PM EDT reply actions  

Another guy to target

would be Gaby Sanchez. He probably doesn’t fit though.

Carlos Gonzalez would be a nice acquisition.

I wonder if we could get the Mets to give Fernando Martinez straight up.

by wildthang on Apr 14, 2009 4:32 PM EDT reply actions  

Lastings Milledge?

Just got demoted to re-adjust his attitude.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 14, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like Blanks and Gaby Sanchez is alright

but does KC really need another First Baseman? Yes none of the ones we currently have are performing well but that is still one of the last positions we need.

No way the Mets give up Fernando Martinez for Hoch.

Keep the Hooch and let him pitch.

Cortes is the one I would probably be more apt to shop. I’m not sold he can develop that third pitch or control and maybe you can get something solid for him while he is still relatively highly thought of.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Apr 14, 2009 4:45 PM EDT reply actions  

Nope

If Hochevar turns out to be a solid #3 starter, or even a decent #4 (which is close to the worst-case scenario), he’s a valuable part of this team for the next five years. Assuming Davies turns out to be pretty decent too, that’s four real starting pitchers. A lot of teams don’t have that.

Over here I only see a few highlights on Internet off ESPN, so I’m absolutely not the guy to opine on how a particular player is looking now, but Ponson and Ramirez have lousy records as starters. They are not good pitchers. They’re over-the-hill hacks. They’re only going to get worse. (Though Ramirez could be an effective reliever. Maybe.) I’d rather see young players with some kind of future starting for us. Like for example Soria, but let’s not get into that again.

I assume that Hochevar will be brought up as soon as it won’t affect his future contract status. Number five, in about a month, will probably be Banny unless he gets lit up at Omaha and shows that 2007 was a mirage. If that doesn’t work, Tejeda’s probably your next choice. After that, Jim Bouton’s probably looking for work and would likely pitch at least as well as Ponson.

Also, as long as TPJ is on the major-league squad as the late-inning defensive replacement, have him pitch a few innings too. He can pitch better than he can hit.

It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.

by Juancho on Apr 14, 2009 5:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Ponson will be gone

Ponson will be gone before the mid or late trading deadline because it’s DM’s philosophy to Buy Low / Sell High to some sucker team trying to find a starter for the playoffs. Or he’ll find the nearest Gates BBQ and go on fatman’s disability.

http://kcsportspodcast.com/

by KCSportsPodcast.com on Apr 15, 2009 1:40 AM EDT reply actions  

I do not want to see Brian Bannister ever pitch for the Royals again

He’s horrible…I don’t want to see “pitching metrics” for an explanation of why Bannister can be good. .252 BABIP in 2007 is an absolute fluke. Ponson gives the Royals a better chance to win every game he pitches over Bannister.

Ponson # 4, Hochevar #5 and they will swap rotation spots after the all-star break

by GobbleforCyoung on Apr 16, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hooch

Pretty solid in Omaha last night. Shouldn’t be too long before we see him back in KC.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 16, 2009 11:01 AM EDT reply actions  

You've got to think Moore and Hillman have soured on HoRam by now, right?

A crappy spring followed by a poor start to the season has to mean they aren’t too in love with their current lefty-in-the-rotation….I hope. [crosses fingers and toes]

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Apr 16, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

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