Some Major and Minor Thoughts
by rockchalk on Apr 16, 2009 5:05 PM EDT
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PrintThese are just random observations I've had so far this year. Some from the big league club, some from the minor leagues. Thus the incredibly creative and clever title. I know, I should probably do it for a living.
Obviously, this all is based off of VERY small sample sizes, so much of it could be wildly wrong in the long run. Or, I could just be wrong because I'm an idiot; that's entirely possible, as well.
- Mike Jacobs has been better than I expected. Maybe it was just because I expected him to completely suck, and he has been as terrible as advertised on defense. But on offense, he is better than I expected. He's working counts, taking walks, shortening up with 2 strikes and simply trying to make contact. He is still swinging for the long ball quite frequently, but he's willing to watch balls and to take the single if it's given to him. And he can hit the ever-living crap out of a ball, as yesterday evidenced. The best part is: the stats say that a lot of this improvement could be "real". Sure, he won't OPS 1.019 all year, but his BABIP is only .313, so it isn't like he's getting a ridiculous amount of luck. Most importantly, his walk rate is up to 11% from 7% last year. If Trey will be more willing to stick him at DH, and play Butler at 1B, Jacobs should be able to be an overall positive player for us. Certainly not what I expected.
- John Buck should be the starter, not Miguel Olivo. Olivo is currently striking out on 62% of his PA's. That is ridiculous. It is easily the highest number in the majors. Buck has been hitting the cover off the ball, and while I doubt that keeps up, the Buck vs. Olivo debate has been well-documented. They pretty much even themselves out, except for Olivo has decided to swing at everything so far this year. Ideally, we could trade Olivo and just keep Brayan as the backup, but whatever. As long as Buck receives the lion's share of PA's, it should all be good.
- Kyle Davies is incredible. If this start (plus last September) is "for real", whatever that means, then we really just might have a chance to win the Central. And, if this is what he really is, a large portion of the RR faithful owe Dayton an apology (me included). Nearly everyone was disappointed with the Dotel-Davies swap at the time, because we thought we could have had Balentein, or Fransisco, or Gutierrez, or blah blah blah. But if this keeps up, Davies was the best option, and it wasn't particularly close (I didn't research numbers to back that up, so watch me be way wrong...)
- Finally, Trey Hillman. I think I'm in the minority here, but I really think he's done a pretty good job so far this year. Opening Day wasn't good, but he's learned since then. After yesterday, where Farnsworth really was the "right call", I think he will slide even further down the pecking order. And yesterday's lineup doesn't really bother me in the slightest. He wanted defense in the lineup for a weaker pitcher. He got it. When we fell behind, he didn't hestitate for a second to replace Bloomy and TPJ with better offensive players in Callaspo and Aviles. I'm a fan.
And, for some Minor League thoughts...
- Don't freak out over Daniel Cortes' early start. Yes, his ERA is off the charts (8.10). But that has as much to do with luck as anything. His BABIP is a ridiculous .562, so that will assuredly go down. His LOB% is also awfully low, only at 44% (compared to a career average around 70%). More importantly, he is striking out more hitters than ever (14.85 per 9 innings) and walking fewer than last year's stint in AA (4.05 per 9 this year, compared to 4.24 last). Don't let the ERA number fool you: he is pitching better so far this year than last.
- Danny Duffy is incredible. He's only 20 and already in A+ ball, and is still absolutely dominating everybody in his sight. He's striking out more than 11 hitters every 9 innings, and walking fewer than 2 per 9. That is off-the-charts. His BABIP is low (.247) and LOB% high (85%), so his ERA will eventually rise from 0.93. But even then, his FIP is 1.65, so his luck isn't ballooning him up too high. He is for real, and should start popping up prospect lists and things if he keeps this up. He may be the real "best pitcher" in our minor league system.
That's all. Nothing ground-breaking, I know. Just my thoughts on the early-going. Overall, I'm pretty happy with our start. We easily could be 7-2 right now, but 5-4 and tied for first in the division isn't bad, either.
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Lots of good points there
But is it true that nearly everyone was disappointed with the Dotel-Davies trade at the time? I know there were some that were very vocal in their disappointment, but I thought the majority sentiment at least on this site was that they weren’t going to get a huge haul for a 2-month rental of a usually injured reliever. And all of the rumors about other players the Royals maybe could have gotten were no more than speculation. Regardless, it looks like a hell of a deal to me, even if all Davies ever becomes is a pretty good middle reliever for multiple years (and I think he’ll be considerably more valuable than that).
The immoderate moderator
I definitely always liked the trade
never understood why people thought Dotel was so valuable to us
by I need more Esteban on Apr 17, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Same reason they think Soria should always stay a closer
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by Matt Klaassen on Apr 17, 2009 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Refreshing
I’m new to this community but it’s refreshing to see that there are more intelligent amateur analysts than I thought there were. After so many years of hearing so many people say the same things so many times, I became the jaded old fart and just stopped talking to people about my second faith; baseball … and particularly Royals Baseball.
I will say that I’m of the Keep It Simple school.
Long wordy posts won’t be my forte, because it seems to me that we are all thinking alike and I’ll only be repeating many of the things that we are all thinking already.
I’ve got a great many agreements with your points. I don’t see much to disagree with.
So for what it’s worth I’ll say ‘high five’ and +1
And in another post I coined a term for our midsummer 4-man rotation —
Gilzackdavieshaver
Turns Out, I appreciate the PLAN but DAMMIT it thuckth to lose
+100 on Cortes
It seems like the sabermetric movement has been successful (at least with intense baseball fans such as those who frequent a place like this) in getting people to recognize that batting average isn’t really a good stat for evaluating hitting. But unfortunately the same is not yet true for ERA. When people see a high ERA, they assume the pitcher stinks, but that just isn’t necessarily so, particularly when you’re looking at smallish sample of data. Just as Coco Crisp has hit very well this season (.965 OPS), even though he has only a .226 BA, Cortes has pitched well this year, even though he has a 8.10 ERA. You don’t always need to look at every stat, but you always need to look past one very flawed stat.
The immoderate moderator
while it isnt wise to look at Cortes' ERA to judge him....
it isnt exactly wise to use k/9 either. when you give up so many hits (however unluckily) you face more batters, so your K/9 should be higher. A better way to look at it would be K%
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 16, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
this year 29.7% k rate
last year 22.1% k rate
so it is in increase, but not an increase like the 14.8/9 ip would lead you to believe
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 16, 2009 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't suggest that one look only at K/9 or just K's in any way
They are an important part of a pitcher’s evaluation, among many other things.
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by Scott McKinney on Apr 16, 2009 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions
so defensive...
i was in no way attacking you….i just saw that the k/9 was used up in the original post and i find that number to be tremendously misleading, and you were a response talking about cortes so thats where it made sense to put my post
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 16, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
So defensive?
You responded to me and I responded to you. That’s how this thing works.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 16, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
alrighty then...good deal
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 16, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Confusion
(Honest question, not trying to be a jerk)
I’m not sure how the number of batters should really affect a pitcher’s K/9. when it comes down to it, every inning consists of 3 outs no matter how many batters come to the plate. So it would seem to me that K/9 really means K/27 outs. Increasing the number of batters does not increase the number of outs, so it should have no effect on how many of his outs are strikeouts. Am I missing something here?
what i'm really looking for...
is the frequency of strikeouts, so if a pitcher strikes out 1 out of 7 and gives up 4 hits in an inning, i find thatless impressive than striking out 1 out of 3 in a 1,2,3 inning
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 17, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Yup, K% is more accurate than K/9 for this reason
Knowing the percentage of hitters struck out per plate appearances proivdes a little more information about the pitcher’s abilities than just the average number of strikeouts per nine innings. But in general, the difference between K% and K/9 is relatively small, so Cortes v.2009 is an extreme example fueled by the ridiculously small sample size of 6 IP.
Strikeout rates stabilize faster than most other rates, but drawing any sort of conclusions this quickly is silly.
I wouldn't say he is pitching good
He has given up 11 hits (3 Xb hits) and walked 3 in 6.2 innings. He might be striking alot of guys out and having some bad luck but to say he is throwing well just because he is striking guys out is a bit misguided. He is throwing 21 pitches per inning, I don’t think anyone with his type of stuff should be throwing that many pitches per inning if he is actually that dominate. His numbers should get better as the luck evens out but if we want him to be a good starter he has a long way to go.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
but to say he is throwing well just because he is striking guys out is a bit misguided.
No, he’s pitching well (in short) because he’s getting a lot of strikeouts, inducing very few line drives, and getting a lot of groundballs. Outside of line drives pitchers have very little influence on what happens to balls in play. So pointing to the number of hits a pitcher has given up is pretty meaningless.
He is throwing 21 pitches per inning, I don’t think anyone with his type of stuff should be throwing that many pitches per inning if he is actually that dominate.
Like Meche?
His numbers should get better as the luck evens out but if we want him to be a good starter he has a long way to go.
He doesn’t have as far to go as you appear to think. You give him far too little credit and continue to rely on less meaningful stats.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 16, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions
He doesn’t have as far to go as you appear to think. You give him far too little credit and continue to rely on less meaningful stats.
Sorry I just haven’t heard or read great reviews on his changeup. He obviously has a dominating fastball but I know he struggles with control and while he can get away with that in the minors that isn’t gonna fly so well in the majors. Lefties BA will regress against him but he is gonna need that changeup to be solid versus them.
I’m not saying he can’t develop or will even be good this year but to credit him just based on strikeouts when he is throwing 6.2 innings and not look at other things is looking at things with Royal blue glasses. He doesn’t have a terrible defense behind him he has the systems best outfielder(Duarte), SS (McConnell) and 3b (Lisson) as well as Parraz who is no slouch. He has good defenders behind him so to just downgrade everything as possible defensive errors is wrong. I’m just hoping he can lower the pitch count and settle down and throw a few more innings without getting in so much trouble. Ala Rosa last year in AA.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
How many average or above pitches does a good MLB SP need? (honest question here...what do you think?)
There are good #2 SP’s that have two plus pitches and one average pitch. Cortes has two plus pitches right now in his fastball and curve. The change is still developing. Basically it is inconsistent. It’s not like he has no changeup. He’s working on it. If he gets it to average, even without improvement in his control, he’ll look like a borderline #2/#3 SP. Add some control improvements and he’ll be better than that. Will these things happen? I don’t know. But it doesn’t seem like they are huge hurdles for him to overcome.
but to credit him just based on strikeouts when he is throwing 6.2 innings and not look at other things is looking at things with Royal blue glasses
Agreed. Thankfully no one is doing that.
He doesn’t have a terrible defense behind him he has the systems best outfielder(Duarte), SS (McConnell) and 3b (Lisson) as well as Parraz who is no slouch. He has good defenders behind him so to just downgrade everything as possible defensive errors is wrong.
First, I’m not “downgrading everything as possible terrible defensive errors.” I am saying that if a pitcher isn’t giving up a lot of hard hit balls, then lots of balls in playing becoming hits is not the pitcher’s fault, period. It’s either luck or the defense or both. And that isn’t a great defensive squad. You listed some defensive standouts. The Royals have a few defensive standouts too. That doesn’t make the Royals defense good, does it?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 16, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I really think to be a good MLB SP...
you need two very good pitches or three good pitches….right now cortes isnt consistent enough with his curve for it to be considered a 2nd ‘very good’ pitch while the changeup sounds like its quite a ways off from falling into the good category
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 16, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you are 100% wrong about Cortes's curveball
From everything I’ve read, it is a very good pitch. And no his change will likely never be good. But it may well become average. And a plus-plus fastball (70+ on the 20-80 scale) with a plus curve and an average change will make for a good MLB SP. Not an ace, but a good SP.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 16, 2009 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you are being very friendly with his curveball
He doesn’t control it all that well yet. It has the makings of being a plus pitch but isn’t there yet if it was he would’ve flown thru AA. Two plus pitches will slide someone thru AA rather quickly. Everything I’ve read and watched on Gameday(yes I know it’s not close to perfect) says his curveball is hit and miss on most nights (Wood same thing). Obviously he is doing a much much better job at keeping his pitches down in the zone to start the season though something he struggled with last year. You are right though about the change. If he can get it to be a average offering he will be a solid 2-3 option. I don’t have a concern in Cortes ability to contribute longterm I just would like him to be a starter as opposed to relegated to the bp like Rosa.
I think GMDM is playing him perfectly by leaving him in AA and letting him develop. I’m really happy with how GMDM is handling the minor league guys. The Ponson-Hoch move was great IMO no matter what everyone else thinks.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
I think you are being very friendly with his curveball
He doesn’t control it all that well yet. It has the makings of being a plus pitch
I wonder where you are getting this from? Everything I’ve read has referred to it as a plus pitch. Last year, BA said he had the best curveball in the Royals organization.
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by Scott McKinney on Apr 16, 2009 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions
In addition to BA, Goldstein at BP likes Cortes's curveball as a plus pitch as well
His curveball is an easy plus pitch that can make opposing hitters look foolish at times, and his changeup flashes plus as well.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 16, 2009 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I should've rephrased it
It is a plus pitch but he has less than ideal control of it. That could be said about his fastball too I guess as it is a 70 on the scale but he left it up in the zone last year alot.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
It is a plus pitch but he has less than ideal control of it.
That describes most of the plus pitches of good MLB SP’s. Plus pitches over which the pitcher has ideal control are the best of the best pitches. Gil Meche has less than ideal control over his curveball and it is an excellent major league pitch.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 16, 2009 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you are overrating where he is
To compare his curveball is anywhere near Meche’s right now is silly. BA Top 10 says he lacks control which I’ve seen everywhere. If his curve was a plus plus pitch that he could control near what Meche can then currently he would be thru AA already. He doesn’t repeat delivery great and lacks control with the fastball and curve. It’s not as simple as you are describing it. Lefties see him very well that’s why they hit him well last year and his 6.2 Ip isn’t all that exciting to me when he hasn’t shown improvement versus lefties yet. I have no doubt he can throw gas has a solid enough curveball to be a ML reliever but with GMDM abilty to put together a bullpen Cortes in the BP doesn’t excite me. The change is a long work in progress that I’m unsure about that’s why the numbers haven’t been great in AZFL, ST or so far in 6.2 Ip.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
To compare his curveball is anywhere near Meche’s right now is silly.
And of course, I didn’t do that. I was pointing out that a plus pitch with less than ideal control is still very good, particularly when it is a pitcher’s #2 pitch.
If his curve was a plus plus pitch that he could control near what Meche can then currently he would be thru AA already.
I didn’t say he was at Meche level. But his fastball and curve aren’t the issue. The issue is the third pitch. He does have control issues, but it isn’t the control of the first two pitches which is holding him back.
It’s not as simple as you are describing it.
And you are describing flaws to a degree that analysts like Goldstein, Sickels, Callis and others at BA disagree with.
The change is a long work in progress that I’m unsure about that’s why the numbers haven’t been great in AZFL,
Apparently you are unaware that he was throwing mostly changeups in the Arizona Fall League because they were more interested in him working on that pitch than putting up shiny numbers. And I guess you are going to keep repeating that his stats so far this season haven’t been so good, even though it’s been clearly shown that they are. Keep repeating it long enough and maybe that will finally make it come true. I guess those hits allowed really are important, lol. I guess it’s a “long work in progress” because you say so. I prefer the opinions of better prospect analysts than you and me.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 16, 2009 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions
No I'm not unaware of that
but I would like to see some shiny stats to backup that it is coming along.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
you keep saying that...
but the prospect analysts really arent that high on him either….and he doesnt have the ’he’s low in the minors’ excuse that the rest of them do
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 16, 2009 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Have you seen what BA, BP and Sickels have written about him?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 16, 2009 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions
yes...and then ive seen him go
lower in their rankings….
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 16, 2009 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions
not exactly a glowing review from sickels
(stats will go here)
One of the brighter lights in the Royals system, Cortes made a reasonably successful transition to Double-A last year. Compared to 2007, he had slight slippages in all ratios, but scouts were still impressed with him overall. His velocity was down early in the season and he missed two weeks with a strained quad muscle, but by the end of the year he had his 91-95 MPH fastball back in full gear. Cortes continued to refine his curveball and changeup, but still needs to improve his command within the strike zone. Although often reported in the press as a ground ball pitcher, his GO/AO ratios consistently show him as a fly ball type, and he could be vulnerable to home runs at higher levels. I think Cortes will need at least 15 starts at the Triple-A level to put the finishing touches on his game. If he gets pushed at a faster pace, he is more likely to struggle. He gets the same Grade B rating he got from me last year.
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 16, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Wow, what do you think a glowing review would sound like?
He put him in his top 100 and if you are familiar with Sickels grad scale, you’ll know that a B grade is actually very high. Basically he’s saying that Cortes is half a season in AAA away from being major league ready. No, he’s not saying that Cortes is set to be a major league ace. But he does think Cortes has an ace ceiling (that doesn’t mean that the player is necessarily most likely to hit that ceiling…most don’t).
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 16, 2009 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions
it comes a long ways from saying that his cb is a plus (or plus plus) whatever you said. he made it very clear that it is still very much a work in progress.
Note who he is grouped with. We’ve discussed before how our A ball guys are so low in the minors that they arent given the ‘ace ceiling’ or whatever. But there are two a ball pitchers with nearly no professional experience to go on and a future reliever with the same grade as Cortes. That does not excite me.
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 16, 2009 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions
You don't understand Sickels grading system or what they mean
And I don’t feel like teaching you anymore. You are stubborn so no matter how much information I give you, you are going to maintain that he’s a meh prospect. Every analyst I’ve read (and I’ve read many) describes his curve as a plus pitch. Every one. How many have you read that have said otherwise? Any? Regardless, I’m done with this silliness.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 16, 2009 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions
goldstein was on rany on the radio last night...
and said that melville may have a 2-3 ceiling and that the rest of the guys profile out below that….feel free to listen to the podcast if you dont believe me….
so, theres one guy that agrees with me
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 17, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
problem
goldstein is just another stupid jerk hoiw stupidly and jerkily is biased against the Royals.
obviously
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by Matt Klaassen on Apr 17, 2009 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Who was that for?
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by Scott McKinney on Apr 18, 2009 6:29 AM EDT up reply actions
laughs
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by Matt Klaassen on Apr 18, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
You keep making that joke
I think it needs to be grounded in reality to be funny. I think you’ve lost your grounding (etc.).
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 18, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
it's a joke off of some people here
who got mad at some internet guys who picked the Royals to be bad because those internet guys were obviously “biased” against the Royals.
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by Matt Klaassen on Apr 18, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok
I just remember that being a very rare sentiment. I see lots of disagreement with those guys and even some “he’s stupid” comments, but not so much “he just hates the Royals!” Meh
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 18, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, that was quite clear from his Royals top 11 post a couple months ago
Thankfully many others disagree. We’ll see how they progress.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 18, 2009 6:29 AM EDT up reply actions
im not even a cortes fanboy...
but its pretty obvious that he’s been extremely unlucky…his walk number are up there…just like his strikeouts…but they are both skewed b/c of the numbers of fluky gb hits he’s given up
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 16, 2009 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Agree on Jacobs point, and want to add something on Crisp as well
Jacobs previous career high for walks is in the 40s – from what I’ve seen so far, I think he will best that this season. Franky, I expected him to look way more hacktastic than this. Granted, he doesn’t look like a Frank Thomas or anything – but he sure looks more disciplined than I thought he would.
WHAT ABOUT CRISP? So far, 8 walks drawn already! His previous career high is 50 in a season, so he is on pace to obliterate that.
If both of these developments continue, I think it would be a big feather in the cap of Moore for his off-season moves to acquire these guys.
Should we consider that Seitzer, although the results have been mixed so far, might have struck a chord with at least a couple of the veterans as far as their overall approach to hitting?
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
At the very least
The players seem to LIKE Seitzer (which is more than I can say about his stint in Arizona) and that has to count for something.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
sss
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by Matt Klaassen on Apr 17, 2009 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Rec'd
Lots of great points in the original post.
I also wonder, like loyal2sdad, if Seitzer may have had an effect on Jacobs and/or Crisp. Based on early returns, it seems like it has been the case with Buck, who just raves about Seitzer (again, caveat of this being a small sample size, plus, Buck got off to a torrid start in 2007 and we all know how he was since). If Crisp and Jacobs keep taking walks like this (I imagine Crisp’s BB% will drop somewhat), then Seitzer is definitely earning his salary.
Re: Cortes: I’m a big fan of Cortes, and the more I read about stats and sabermetrics, the more I am convinced that ERA is a godawful way of measuring a minor leaguer’s performance. Cortes has put together two solid years back-to-back. I’m not terribly worried.
by DarthYoshi on Apr 16, 2009 6:02 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
i'm worried about Cortes walk rate
both last year (and especially this year). The k’s are encouraging, though. Still, I’m just not as high on Cortes as I am on guys like Duffy.
yeah, Cortes's BB/9 rate needs to be lower
but I think as his changeup improves, more control will come with that. Again—not too worried.
.562 BABIP?
Geez, what sort of defense are we fielding down there?
Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!
Mixed
And, more importantly, one of the reason that tiny sample sizes aren’t very reliable is that a few things here or there can really skew the results. We really need to see several more starts before we get excited, worried or somewhere in between.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 16, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions
If the LD% is high, that BABIP should be expected
Just because BABIP is high doesn’t mean he is getting unlucky.
His LD% is 13%
The expected BABIP from that would be about .250.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 16, 2009 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for posting that.
I forgot to put in the LD%.
Yeah, he is basically the same pitcher as last year (really, he’s pitching even better according to most metrics), just his ERA has ballooned.
Sorry for not making that clear.
Keep in mind that LDs, GBs, and FBs
are scored by different people at each part, and so there’s a subjective element in each, and a significant bit of discrepancy has been found. That doesn’t mean it’s unusable, just something to be aware of.
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by Matt Klaassen on Apr 18, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah really
I wonder who they have judging the batted balls at those minor league parks. I mean it’s the only batted ball info we have, but I don’t know how much it can be trusted. Unfortunately, I think it will probably be many years before any spends the money to put Hit f/x technology in minor league parks, even in AAA.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 18, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
another thing that organizations should be doing
that would cost no more than what they spend on their shittiest reliever in a season. That’s not a Farnsworth joke. Heck, for Farnsworth money, you could do probably do Hit and Pitch f/x for all your parks and still have enough money (thankfully!) left over for Ho-Ram.
The problem with scoring line drives (pre-Hit f/x, anyway) is discussed here.
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by Matt Klaassen on Apr 18, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
seriously, that would pay off so fast
not only would you have real information on your own players, you’d have a leg up on scouting the competition’s young players when they played in your parks.
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by Matt Klaassen on Apr 18, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
That really is a great idea.
Of course, I’m sure a lot of offices don’t seriously consider that type of stuff in decision-making.
If anyone did it, it would probably be Seattle’s new GM. That guy with the last name that starts with Z.
The new acquisitions are looking pretty decent
Although I can’t believe that Ponson’s going to keep his ERA at 4.50. If he does we have excellent trade bait at the deadline. Maybe Seitzer has worked some plate discipline magic on Crisp and Jacobs. Let’s hope it’s a real trend instead of just a lucky streak.
I’m concerned about the weak hitting in general. Gordon, in particular, has run up some very lousy stats so far. Small sample size and all that, I know, but the Royals are not scoring a bunch of runs.
I’m rooting for Mr. Work Ethic, Hiram Davies, to throw a bunch of quality starts this year. You gotta like a guy who works construction and is nice to kids. Even if Davies turns out to be a 5.00 ERA fifth starter kind of guy, the trade for Dotel was still a steal.
Kyle Fartsworth should only pitch if all the following conditions hold:
1. The Royals are more than four runs either ahead or behind.
2. Nobody else in the pen needs any work to stay sharp.
3. The bottom of the order is coming up for the other team.
4. There’s somebody fairly fresh in the pen to save Farnsy’s ass in case he gives up two walks and a homer in two-thirds of an inning (assuming the Royals are winning).
Special exemption: If we need somebody to throw a beanball at A.J. Pierzynski or his ilk, bring in Farnsy as the HBPGY. If he gets kicked out or suspended, we don’t lose much. This technique would work better with Olivo as catcher, since he is said to be the one guy on the team you definitely don’t want to get into a fight with. Imagine Farnsy plunking A.J. in the ass with a 95-mph heater, A.J. charging the mound, and Olivo running him down from behind while Farnsy takes on all challengers atop the hill and Jacobs just falls down on top of some guy and immobilizes him.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
by Juancho on Apr 16, 2009 6:15 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
See...
I think Jacobs would probably just start stabbing guys with his goatee. That thing looks dangerous.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
by Sweep_the_Leg on Apr 16, 2009 6:35 PM EDT up reply actions
or vanilla ice....
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 16, 2009 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Rec'd
just because the term “HBPGY” made me laugh
Weaseling out of things is important to learn. It's what separates us from the animals! Except the weasel! - Homer Simpson
by aHorseWithNoName on Apr 16, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I know Olivo is hitting terrible right now, really terrible
but isnt this just a really small sample size. How long did we play TPJ before we finally benched him? Too long, I know. And sure Buck has come out of the gate hittin the hell out of the ball, like he did last season, but he will settle down and become the John Buck that we know. Remember when Brent Maybe was batting around .400, in 2003 i believe, it was too good to be true too.
A grand slam and a home run do warrant extra playing time, but not full time duty.
Buck settling down to become the Buck we all know
will still be a bit better than Olivo.
Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!
IN the larger sample size of their entire careers
John Buck is clearly the superior hitter
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Apr 16, 2009 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions
There are good #2 SP’s that have two plus pitches and one average pitch. Cortes has two plus pitches right now in his fastball and curve. even without improvement in his control, he’ll look like a borderline #2/#3 SP. Add some control improvements and he’ll be better than that. Will these things happen? I don’t know.-Plus pitches over which the pitcher has ideal control are the best of the best pitches. Gil Meche has less than ideal control over his curveball and it is an excellent major league pitch.
These were your quotes, sorry if I thought you were overshooting your analysis. His control is more of an issue than you are presenting it to be. He routinely threw too many pitches/Inning last year. BA/Sickel/Goldstein are good to great but they also didn’t look at every game he threw. Yes they have scouts at nearly everyone but I doubt if they review every start he makes like we do. They have better knowledge at the games but we review every game and I say on average he threw too many pitches per inning and lacks control of his primary two pitches currently. For him to get to his 2/3 ceiling he is gonna have to develop better control of the 1-2 pitches as well as develop the change otherwise he will fall into Rosa’s realm.
I wish they wouldn’t have taken the slider from Cortes as he has developed the curve into a plus pitch and might not have need the change as much if they would have let him continue to develop the slider.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
BA/Sickel/Goldstein are good to great but they also didn’t look at every game he threw.
How many games did you watch Cortes throw? And please don’t tell me that your scouting from gameday is worth much of anything.
Yes they have scouts at nearly everyone but I doubt if they review every start he makes like we do.
All we can review is the stats. And if the worst thing you can say about him is that he throws too many pitches, then that is very good news.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 16, 2009 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm done
I never said anything remotely negative about the guys ability currently but you want to make it about me.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
I just asked how many games you’d seen him pitch and pointed out that it’s pretty good if a pitcher’s worst flaw is that he throws too many pitches.
Seriously, it appears you find the analysis of guys at BA, Sickels and Goldstein because they see a limited number of games (and talk to scouts who have seen a limited number of games. And you think the analysis of fans who follow him more closely is therefore better. But we really don’t get to see him pitch many games, right? I mean I didn’t see any of his games last year. Did you? If not, then is our own personal scouting opinion better than those analysts? I mean we have access to his stats, but so do they.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 16, 2009 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I've seen him pitch once
but I never said anything about it or referenced to it.
Those guys are great but I’m sure with scouting 1000’s of guys they don’t checkout every players stats the way we do or obsess and listen to every game the way I do and I’m sure you do at some point. I said a weakness of his was control which it is. He has a plus 1-2 offering but lacks control of it, which he does. I know BA and Sickels say that and I’m sure Goldstein does at some point if I wanted to go back and look for all his Cortes references.
All I was saying was that I thought you made it sound like all he needed was the average change and I was saying he needed to refine his control too.
This has gone far too long for two people that are basically agreeing.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
He does need to improve his control
I just don’t think he needs to improve it great. Control is a weakness for him; I just don’t think it is a huge weakness. His career minor league BB/9 is 3.6. That’s not too bad. Now in AA last year it was 4.2. He’ll have to do better than that. And I know that control involves more than just giving up walks, but other than the walks allowed, he appears to make the pitches he needs to, as seen by his K/9, batted ball data, etc.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 16, 2009 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions
My own minor thought
It seems like the Royals actually have some decent options in AAA this year. I wouldn’t say any of the guys are stars (or even regulars) in the making, but i think a lot of the guys in AAA are the kind of guys you would be willing to give some playing time too in the event of an injury. We have a back-up option now at 3rd:Metcalf, SS:Hernandez, 2nd:Hulett, and 1st:Shealy/Ka’aihue. Maier is with the big league club so, not much in the outfield. We have Bannister and Hochevar stashed there. Maybe even some long shot bullpen arms, including 7 lefties. All in all, a nice AAA team while we wait for the real prospects to keep moving up the ladder and swell the ranks.
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