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On the Bright Side...

Team Fortress 2 is a PC game that I've devoted waaaaaaayyyyy too many hours to during my slacker college years, you die often. It's an online FPS--that's First Person Shooter, for you n00bs--that places a strong emphasis on teamwork. A staple of FPSes is back-and-forth gameplay, and while your character dying is nowhere as near as random as your typical bullet-spraying fratboy game--Halo and Call of Duty come to mind--you will still die fairly often. The graphics being done in a cartoony style (my avatar is one of the classes), the game has a good sense of not taking itself very seriously. When NHZ or any of the other heroic protagonists (it's a world full of heroic protagonists) die, the game will display some statistic under the heading "On the Bright Side...". This helps takes the edge off dying and waiting to magically come back to life (known as "respawning' in TF2 circles) and lends much-needed humor to the totally non-funny situation of getting your cartoony blood spilled everywhere because your blew yourself up or just got totally owned by some troll who can barely operate a mouse correctly. For example: "On the Bright Side....you had more kills (3) that round than your previous best."

And now Alex Gordon needs surgery, and he's on the 15-day respawn timer disabled list for the time being. "On the Bright Side...it's hard for some of the Royals to keep being this terrible on offense." Too positive, you say? Crazy talk. The primary reason for an offensive rebound without Alex is the indisputable fact that Willie Bloomquist might get an extra base hit sometime soon. Hell, maybe even next month! Seriously folks, the reason that we signed someone like Willie Ballgame is because he's a guy you can plug into any position and lose only a couple ticks of production. It's hard to find someone who can slug .285 over a full season and be a non-entity at seven different positions. No really, it is. Crimony, does anyone else have a player like that?

Player Current wOBA Projected wOBA Difference
David DeJesus .278 .337-.350 .59-.72
Mark Teahen .319 .322-.342 .03-.23
Alberto Callaspo .308 .315-.326 .07-.18
Billy Butler .204 .340-.357 .136-.153
Mike Aviles .206 .328-.350 .122-.144

Star-divide

When I had the idea to compare the wOBAs of the Royals hard-luck offense so far this season, these five were the players I pegged as likely to be the worst offenders in terms of the difference between the level of hitting expected and the level of hitting displayed in this admittably very small sample size. I'm not trying to make any deep, sabermetric argument here - I'm just illustrating that the offense should improve without Gordon. Butler's and Aviles's offensive games have been absent without leave in the first two weeks of the season, and DeJesus is also hitting well below the level that he should reach at the end of the year. If there's any caveats to the large differences between projected and current wOBAs, it's that A) Butler and Aviles are both still somewhat unknown quanitites at the dish, as the number they put up last year don't much resemble what most projection systems show for them and B) the high end projections here are almost always the Bill James projections, which always seem to border on insanely optimistic. The point that Aviles, Butler, and DeJesus are all significantly underperforming at the moment still stands.

In the cases of Callaspo and Teahen, they're both only marginally below the projections, but for different reasons. I think many people were expecting a modest breakout from Callaspo this year, as a modest increase in doubles power would allow him to better utilize his ability to work the count. As for Teahen, his wOBA is close to the projections, but he's only slugging .323 - it's fairly certain that he should be able to do better than that. Even if Teahen isn't the All-Star that he once looked like, what he can do is give a team an above-replacement-level substitute in case of injury. All of the caveats and the small sample considered, all five of these guys should be in the lineup on a regular basis and they should contribue more than they have so far this season. That should be enough to offset the bumps in the road that will no doubt crop up for the ~1000 OPS club of Crisp, Jacobs, and Buck.

Coupled with the fact that the starting pitching has been and should continue to a be a positive for the Royals, KC should be putting more runs on the board despite the injury to Gordon.

Player Current  wOBA Projected wOBA Difference
Miguel Olivo .145 .298-.306 .153-.161
Willie Bloomquist .207 .299-.307 .92-.100
Jose Guillen (15-day DL) .167 .262-.277 .95-.110

The only nice thing I can say about these guys is that while they stink, I really doubt any of these three can keep being this horrible. Olivo has all the plate discipline of a compulsive twinkie inhaler, but he usually does a fair amount of damage versus lefties so he should contribute a little bit more than a .145 figure. Bloomquist is a replacement level player who the Royals would be better off keeping out of the lineup because any improvement of his wOBA won't have much positive effect given his mediocre defense and total lack of power (somehow, I think the projection systems have overvalued his flukey OBP of last year). And Guillen, whenever he comes back, "should" be an upgrade over MITCH or whoever else plays in place of Teahen once Teahen replaces Gordon at third.

I can't call the above players hopeless. I'd like to, but the fact of the matter is that even those guys are likely to do better down the road. Hell, Bloomquist probably will get on base a couple times when Hillman slots the supersub into the lineup.

Player Current wOBA Projected wOBA  Difference
Alex Gordon .259 .337-.359 .88-.100

Likelu improvements or not, it's a little depressing to think the offense could have improved that much more with a healthy Smirk here and there. Gordon had started the season cold, but as a player who had already established himself as a contributor with the bat and someone with breakout potential, he's a rare commodity for the Royals. How many times have we seen some article about KC that drops something like the line "the Royals need improvements from Alex Gordon and Billy Butler to get over the hump"? It's frustrating and scary to see Gordon go down at the time like this, as the early season games seem to have convinced not just loyal rooters, but even a lot of bandwagoners in the MSSM that the Royals have a chance for the AL Central crown this season. In the short term, as I've alluded to here--though this entire article could be just as aptly named "NHZ plays with small sample sizes"--the offense should improve. The pitching looks good, as the Royals are getting quality out of Meche, Greinke, and Davies thus far, and even some tolerable starts from Sir Sidney. Outside of the prediactable HoRam and Farnsworth adventures, the pitching staff has been a definitive positive.

On the Bright Side, the offense should improve without Alex Gordon in it over the next couple weeks. That doesn't change the fact that the Blue are very likely to need me to respawn and kill some more cartoon flamethrower weilding crazies a healthy Gordon's production in the long term to be successful. Unfortunately, it's not clear on when they'll be able to count on that.

 

 

 

 

1 recs  |  Comment 32 comments |

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If the Royals are TF2...

Is Billy Butler the Heavy?

Farny being Farny.

by JobDDT on Apr 17, 2009 2:46 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

No, the Heavy (my avatar) regularly contributes to his team on defense.

Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.

by NHZ on Apr 17, 2009 3:00 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Butler would almost undoubtably be the Spy

Ok-ish on Offense
Horrible on defense
Never really seems to be helping the team.
Oh god, I feel a fanpost with a full TF2 lineup comparison coming on…NOOOOO!

I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT

by RoyalPug on Apr 17, 2009 3:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jacobs is the sniper

Ok-ish on Offense
Horrible on defense
Never really seems to be helping the team.
But occasionally gets that one kill that swings the momentum and boosts his team…
ok this is stopping

I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT

by RoyalPug on Apr 17, 2009 3:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm just kind of thrilled that there's anyone else on here

who gets my references. You actually play?

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on Apr 17, 2009 3:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pfffffffffft!

My Steam name is [ __ ] Hogg .

by Porcus on Apr 17, 2009 3:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

projections

When you’re looking at projections like this, the new data the projection systems have from the start of the season is going to affect the end-results. I don’t know by how much, as that kind of thing is not really my bag (anything requiring that level of math proficiency is not really my bag), but it certainly wouldn’t have a positive return for players like Butler and Gordon.

by sumajestad on Apr 17, 2009 3:16 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The wOBAs here

I mentioned that there’s a lot of small sample size at work here. I wouldn’t put too much weight in 30ish PAs…I just included them to make the point that the offense should perk up. And guess what? Our division still stinks.

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on Apr 17, 2009 3:22 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, I think you're right

There’s no way they end the season scoring less than three and half runs per game. My point was just that, if you were to run those projections again today, you wouldn’t get the same projections. I don’t know how much they would be affected after 10 bad days of production… probably not a lot, but they would look different.

by sumajestad on Apr 17, 2009 3:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Alberto's lost an eye recently?

Well, he hasn’t walked much so far, I guess…

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on Apr 17, 2009 3:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the 3B version of TPJ!

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Apr 17, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

nice to have you back, NHZ

do we really need to worry this much, though? Isn’t everyone smart enough to realize that this is all small sample size stuff? So small it’s not worth worrying about?

I mean, worrying about the offense (more than one should — it’s still not good) after this amount of time is Does everyone think that the Greinke, Meche, and Davies are all going to finish the year with sub-1 ERAs?

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Apr 17, 2009 11:19 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes, I think people are smart to realize.

Main points in summary:

1. the offense WILL get better, and they certainly looked better vs. Texas.
2. Losing Gordo still sucks.

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on Apr 18, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Q: How many extra base hits did Bloomquist have last year?

A: 1 double in a 165 at bats.

http://kcsportspodcast.com/

by KCSportsPodcast.com on Apr 17, 2009 12:37 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

who had a higher 2B/AB Rate at 1/39?

Noted “doubles hitter” Pedro Martinez

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Apr 17, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

CC Sabathia

had 2 HR, 2 Doubles and 7 7RBI. Our man Willie had 1 HR, 1 Double and 9 RBI.

The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.

by kcbottom9th on Apr 17, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bloomie

had 114 more AB’s

The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.

by kcbottom9th on Apr 17, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

In Bloomquist's defense...

it would take two whole Sporks to make up just one Sabathia. You put all that weight behind a bat and you’re bound to have some power.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

by Sweep_the_Leg on Apr 17, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's not how big you are

It’s how you use it!

/twss

The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.

by kcbottom9th on Apr 17, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I am surprised it came to this but

Costa on the major league roster actually would make sense. Costa (332 wOBA CHONE, 333 wOBA ZIPS) projects to hit better than Maier (311wOBA CHONE, 317 wOBA ZIPS), and I am not sure Maier’s defense would make up the difference.

by Gopherballs on Apr 17, 2009 2:42 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

not more Costa talk….Someone archive the “Costa Now!” post from last year, it’s time to get it going again I guess

by I need more Esteban on Apr 17, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Blame Moore for not finding a better stopgap outfielder-type than Costa

Costa is by no means good, but given the lack of viable in-house alternatives, Costa presents the system’s best chance of providing some value with his bat and his glove as a temporary fill-in.

by Gopherballs on Apr 17, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Teahen was supposed to be the stopgap

We just lost and OF and 3B at the same time. Now, if we had kept Esteban. . .

by BrRoyal on Apr 17, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Teahen was suppose to be the starting second baseman

But even if you count him, the organizational depth in the outfield was the three opening day starters (DDJ, Crisp, Guillen), then Teahen, and then . . . Maier and Costa. Maier is fine as a defensive replacement, but not really someone you would want to start everyday while a regular is sidelined for more than a couple days. Which leaves us with Costa.

by Gopherballs on Apr 17, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

averaging CHONE/ZiPS/PECOTA, and TotalZone Projections

I have Costa at 1.4 WAR, Maier at about1, Teahen at 1.5 in the OF.

For the record, Bloomquist is at 0.2 in the OF, Guillen at 0.9 (although I think TZ is pretty friendly to his defense, and a bit hard on Teahen’s)

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Apr 17, 2009 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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