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Our Lineup & Roster

I know Guillen won't be out that much longer but currently with both Guillen and Gordon out, it got me thinking over lunch yesterday about what I would do with our position player roster and lineup.  Here goes...

C - Buck

1B - Butler

2B - Callapso

SS - Avlies

3B - Teahen

LF - DeJesus

CF - Crisp

RF - Maier

DH - Jacobs

That leaves gives us 3 righties, 4 lefties, and 2 switch hitters.  That works.  I would bat them as follows:

1. Crisp

2. Aviles

3. DeJesus

4. Butler

5. Teahen

6. Buck

7. Jacobs

8. Callapso

9. Maier

I know it sounds easy to say after last night's performance but honestly I thought and think this isn't a bad lineup and it's not that much worse than having Guillen and Gordon in it.  It is worse, but not appreciably because Guillen and Gordon are not consistent high level performers and Callapso is a productive offensive contributor.  I guess it depens a lot on how Maier would do in my everyday lineup (but it doesn't look like we'll get to find that out since Hillman will likely play Bloomquist most nights). Where I think the injuries hurt us the most is not in our starting lineup but rather with our bench.  Our bench was a bit odd to start the year (by keeping T. Pena and 3 catchers; I know B. Pena can play other positions but he can't be that good at them) but with these injuries I really don't think it works very well at all.

With our current roster and my suggested lineup above, that leaves us with the following bench: Bloomquist, T. Pena, B. Pena, and Olivo.  The oddity of having 3 catchers needs to end.  I was willing to live with carrying 3 for a little while because I didn't want to lose B.Pena but the time has come to resolve this for the sake of our bench.  I would trade/dump Olivo (if we can afford to eat yet another contract).  We would lose nothing without him.  I would replace Olivo's roster spot with Shealy so we could have a decent righty option off the bench and I would replace T.Pena's spot with Hullet (decent to good plate discipline and can play multiple positions).  This would leave us with the following bench:  B.Pena, Bloomquist, Shealy, and Hullet.  As a manager, I'd feel like I had a lot more options than with Olivio, B.Pena, T. Pena, and Bloomquist.

What do you think about the lineup and the bench?

 

 

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Average catchers

are too limited commodity to just dump them right now. Olivo is really struggling at the dish but he is calling a good game and throwing well both things that everyone has given Buck a pass on for years now. I’m all for trading Olivo or B.Pena but I wouldn’t just dump them, it’s not like they are soft tossin relievers.

Buck is still strugglin tossing runners out. He has given up 4 steals I believe and got a gift call on his one toss out. His limitations in that aspect of the game are still scary to me. Kinsler didn’t wait long at all to take off last night so either Meche needs to vary his pickoffs, his timing or Buck is gonna struggle. I love the way Buck is hitting and hopefully this is a sign of Seitzer helping him out as opposed to another hot start followed by a second half black hole.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Apr 18, 2009 12:22 PM EDT reply actions  

Buck has been good at calling games for quite a while now

his only significant deficiency on defense has been his CS%.

by DarthYoshi on Apr 18, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was joking about calling games. No one really knows the effect of Bucks

ability or Olivo’s ability to call a game. If you look at the winning % maybe Buck was the reason KC sucked all these years. I don’t believe that but it’s hard to tell if Buck is good or not.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Apr 18, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

3 Catchers are too many

I guess my main point is that 3 catchers is too many to carry on the roster. Having a bench of 4 guys and two of them being catchers is ridiculous. It doesn’t leave the manager with nearly as many options late in games. Now if B. Pena is decent defensively then I guess I stand corrected, but I doubt that is the case. Can somebody comment on B. Pena’s ability to play other positions passably?

Assuming B. Pena isn’t very capable at another position, then I think we should get rid of one catcher to have a decent usable bench. And my opinion is that Olivo is the one to go. I’m not going to rehash the whole Buck/Olivo debate, but my preference is to go with the younger guy that at least has possibility of being the better of the two offensively. And I certainly want to keep B. Pena because I think he’s got a chance to better than both Olivo and Buck offensively.

I don't fight extra players.

by paleblueeyes on Apr 18, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

The problem is that demoting B. Pena probably means losing him from the organization entirely
Assuming B. Pena isn’t very capable at another position, then I think we should get rid of one catcher to have a decent usable bench.

I think the Royals have a decent, usable bench right now. I think subtracting B. Pena and replacing him with Shealy or Costa at most makes the team just a tiny bit better (as in probably 0.1 win better). Considering that, I’d prefer to keep B. Pena in the organization, and thus keep him on the 25-man roster.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Apr 18, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

“I just wanted to say skip, carrying 3 catchers is probably a good idea”

“Jake, we’re not carrying 3 catchers”

by I need more Esteban on Apr 18, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nice post

Although we know that batting order doesn’t matter much at all (5-15 runs a season), I obsesss over it constantly, too. You can read my general thoughts on batting order and the Royals here. Obviously, the group that’s available now is much different than before the season started.

I would say, first, that, although no managers do it, given the universality of platoon splits, one should always have different lineups vs. LHPs and RHPs.

So (without rerunning all the platoon numbers or looking) , here is my suggested lineup with the players you use vs. RHPs:

1. DDJ

2. Callaspo

3. Jacobs

4. Butler

5. Teahen

6. Crisp

7. Aviles

8. Maier

9. Buck

Two weeks of stats don’t change guys talent. DDJ is one of the best hitters on the team vs. RHPs, and the best OBP guy historically. He should lead off. I put Jacobs 3rd, since models show that of your best hitters, the guy with the lowest OBP and highest power should hit third, since he hits the most with 2 outs. Thus, I put Callaspo rather t han Crisp second, because Callaspo has the higher expected OBP, and because Crisp’s speed is a sort of neutralized hitting in front of a power hitter like Jacobs. DDJ’s good baserunning (although not steadling) is leveraged better in front of a contact hitter like Callaspo. Butler hits 4th — I still think he’ll pick it up, and we need to separate lefties. TEahen hits fifth, because he’s left. Crisp hits 6th, because, while he’s been good, obviusly he’s ahead of himself. And putting him in front of high-contact, low-power guys like Aviles (who can’t hit RHPs all that well) and Maier leverages both his stealing and baserunning better. I’m one of the bigger John Buck fans you’ll find, but he shold be hitting 9th. Against RHPs, these last three guys could be in a different order.

Vs. LHP:

1. Crisp

2. Aviles

3. DDJ

4. Butler

5. Teahen

6. Callaspo

7. Jacobs

8. Buck

9. Maier

Well, this one is a bit tougher with Guillen oujt. NOt sure about the last three. Of all these guys, Aviles and Butler are the only ones whom can be expected to be above average hitters vs. LHPs this season. If Guillen was here, you can see how I’d order them in my other post. But now Crisp goes into the leadoff spot. NOt much power behind him, so his speed comes into play. Not too many good choices for #3, so I picked DDJ since his historical spits aren’t awful. Feel weird putting Buck #8… the last four spots could be in any order, probably — have to split up Jacobs and Maier, so one ends up being #7 and ahead of either Buck or Callaspo, either of whom probably hits lefties better.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 18, 2009 12:35 PM EDT reply actions  

anyway, these are just my suggestions -- i love talking about this stuff

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 18, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

they're still about as valuable

LIke I said, even if these are the most optimal, they don’t increase production about 15 runs a season, and that’s being very optimistic.

Like I said, they’re fun to talk about, but it’s more important to realize that, say, Callaspo should be starting over Bloomquist than to figure out whether to his Callaspo to Crisp #2.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 18, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

butler batting cleanup against righties...

with his career 649 ops against them?

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Apr 19, 2009 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

regression to the mean

or you could use Trey’s solution, and put 3-4 lefties in a row.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 19, 2009 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

more fully

My lineups are based on 1) projections for next year, which, taken together, have Butler and Gordon as the Royals two best hitters; and 2) expected platoon splits, rather than career splits. Righties especially regress to the league average more heavily that lefties. No, I don’t expet Butler to be one of the Royals 2 or thee best hitter vs. RHPs this season, but he’s probably one of the top 5, and in in order to get the top 5 hitters into the top five spots and atlernating lefties and righties, he needed to be 2nd or 4th.

That’s just my reasoning behind it.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 19, 2009 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm most interested with who's left in and out of the lineup.

Left out: Bloomy, tpj, Olivo. Left in: Callaspo, Buck, Butler, Maier(now). ML baseball games are not the time and place to experiment with players and positions except in extenuating circumstances or injuries during games. Just because a player CAN play a position doesn’t mean he SHOULD play that position in a game. Versatility is great to have on a team but I don’t trust Hillman behind that wheel. Bloomy has no business in RF on a team with Teahen and Maier on the roster. But sure as shit, I know Hillman will put him there. Set the lineup anyway you want—just put the most deserving players in there. Rant over.

by Steve Hovley on Apr 18, 2009 8:21 PM EDT reply actions  

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