Royals rotation - FIP, tRA, tRA+
- Gil Meche - 2.06, 2.04, 160
- Zack Greinke - 1.56, 2.48, 152
- Kyle Davies - 3.15, 2.28, 156
- Sidney Ponson - 3.42, 2.67, 148
- Horacio Ramirez - 8.38, 7.14, 61
about 3 years ago
Scott McKinney
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So far, that's a damned good rotation that needs a new fifth starter
BTW, for an explanation of FIP, go here. And tRA is like FIP, but including more batted data to account for the kinds of batted balls the pitcher gave up.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 20, 2009 12:15 PM EDT reply actions
Which one of these is not like the other?
Wow. And basically giving away a game on Wednesday, to a division rival, ugh.
Don't Stop Believing!
by KC Chris on Apr 20, 2009 12:17 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
But hey, it gives the other starters an extra days rest
Which they so desperately need
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 20, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Should we consider firing our strength and conditioning coach?
I’m alarmed our players need this much rest so early in the season.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Apr 20, 2009 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I would suggest more nap time
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 20, 2009 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hey...
were in the dog days of April here. They’ve played TWELVE whole games. Time for some orange slices and RC Cola (or Shasta, if you must, Retro).
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
by Sweep_the_Leg on Apr 20, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
For an explanation,
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Apr 20, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
BTW, without checking, I'm pretty sure that 1-2-3 is the best top 3 in MLB so far by FIP or tRA
Maybe even the best top 4.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 20, 2009 12:41 PM EDT reply actions
Maybe even the best top 4.
Well. Let’s just enjoy Sir Sidney’s numbers while we can, I guess.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
by Sweep_the_Leg on Apr 20, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Might make for a decent #5 starter
I know that’s heresy, but call me Martin Luther.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 20, 2009 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you and RR need to have an official "I'm the bigger rebel against the Royals fanbase establishment" -off
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Apr 20, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I also wear a black leather jacket and torn blue jeans
Call me Scotty Rebel.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 20, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
My tattoo is of a calculator
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 20, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
hopefully an HP
or I just lost all respect for you.
" I'll be the first one to tell you , ' Don't follow me . I'll let you down. Follow Jesus.' " Trey Hillman
OK, got it.
The General Theory of Royaltivity
I guess I'm finally going to have to read up on tRA
It seems like a flaw that the guy who has pitched 20 innings without giving up a run, leads the league in Ks with 26 and has issued only 5 BBs is not the leader…
We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan
He's been giving up a lot of hard hit balls
His 28.3% line drive percentage is very, very high. He gets credit for his K’s, BB’s and HR’s. But tRA rightly gives pitchers the credit for things like line drives. Things like K’s, BB’s, HR’s and LD’s are much more telling indicators of performance than runs allowed.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 20, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Makes sense, but strange
I wonder if there has ever been a study on the relationship between K rates v. LD rates. I would think that there would be an inverse relationship and Zack’s high LD rate is somewhat of an anomaly.
We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan
by Royal Kingdom on Apr 20, 2009 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the current discrepancy is just about the small sample size
In small samples of data, it easy for things to get skewed in odd directions. His LD% will settle down.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 20, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, there is an obvious relationship between K rates and number of line drives allowed
A pitcher cannot give up a line drive if the hitter cannot put the ball in play. Greinke is striking out a third of the hitters he is facing, so while his LD% is very high (and unsustainable), he is not allowing very many line drives.
Otherwise, what NYRoyal said about small sample size.
So the denominator in LD% is balls in play, not batters faced??
We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan
by Royal Kingdom on Apr 20, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
oh yeah, and
the guy who appears to be the best pitcher on the planet, is actually the 3rd best pitcher on the Royals…I like it.
We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan
by Royal Kingdom on Apr 20, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Banny/Hoch
Both looking good in Omaha and would make fine #4s. Banny only pitched two innings yesterday and the suspicion was that he was getting called up as a result. Reliever was warming as the game started.
Any word?
Russ Gload = Doug Mientiewicz....without the pop
I'm not sure if it's been touched on or not
This is the first thread I’ve opened today…
810 AM reported that Bannister pitched Two 1-2-3 Innings on Sunday in AAA, and was then removed form the game. There was a releiver warming up behind him from the beginning of the game moving forward.
There is speculation that this is to leave him on schedule to pitch again on Wednesday in Cleveland
BOOM! ROASTED!
Could be, but hasn't Hillman already said it would be HoRam?
And didn’t he say that on Sunday? I’m actually not sure when he said it. Maybe Saturday. Or maybe the right hand (TH) doesn’t know what the left hand is doing (DM), but I doubt that.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 20, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm guessing Farnsy to the DL
“Sore back”
We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan
by Royal Kingdom on Apr 20, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Or,
the left hand thinks there will be a different right hand come Wednesday!!
The General Theory of Royaltivity
Dayton Moore makes mistakes
But he isn’t that kind of a reactionary goof.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 20, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Umm, what are we doing ... (this sounds like a dark and bitter post but I'm going for humor)
Actually listening to anything Hillman says? I’ve read posts all day reinforcing the fact of his incompetence as demonstrated yesterday… First off I think… umm… duh why listen unless it’s just to use against him later — and
No professional is going to make any statements that can be regarded as fact until the official announcement is made. Another part of the cat and mouse game. He’s not gonna tell us what’s really gonna happen until it’s made to happen.
That’s the fun of speculation though! We mortals get to sit around and guess what’s going to happen, and if we make the correct prediction we feel like we could do it ourselves .. and the more “in advance” of the event that our prediction comes true, we pat ourselves on the back and say
well shit I could do that
don’t kid yourself if you could do it you would be doing it
Turns Out, I appreciate the PLAN but DAMMIT it thuckth to lose
Bullpen Banny?
Is there any possibility we’re going to put Banny in the bullpen? He could probably stand to gain the few MPH on his fastball that such a move might give him.
by Trey Hillman's Chin on Apr 20, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
banny brings it at 97 in the pen
he just can’t help but conserve his velocity when he starts though.
Kinda like the gymnast from Seinfeld.
Glad you posted this
I was all ready to post a quick fanshot today, basking in the glow of an 8-4 record and sole possesion of 1st place – but that was before “Trey Gate” hit.
I was gonna comment on how I disagree with those who say the pitching can’t last like this, etc. Well, why not? I mean, the pitching may not be quite this good all year, as in an ERA hovering around 3.00, but I certainly don’t see any reason the pitching staff can’t stay in the top 2 or 3 in the league for the entire year – there is that much talent here.
I will point to three interesting stats so far – the ridiculous team strikeout total, which is going a long way towards mitigating the below average infield defense. (Royals are 1st in the AL in Ks, but 24th in MPB DER so far). Second stat is that the team has already won THREE games in which they scored only 2 runs – and if not for Farnsworth in the opener, it would already be at FOUR! That is absolutely amazing, IMHO – last year they only won a total of 5 games all season in which they scored 2 or fewer runs. (They did win an additional 10 games in which they scored exactly 3 runs, but still, they are on pace to blow away last year’s performance in low scoring games). Third amazing stat is one we have been on the negative side for so long, I don’t even want to research the last time we weren’t: So far, we have outhomered the opposition by 13 – 7! To me, this has ALWAYS been a STRONG indicator of overall team strength – without researching it, I’d bet it would be difficult to find a playoff team that DIDN’T out-homer the opposition for the season. Without looking it up, I can tell you that the 85 team outhomered the opposition by plenty, and that may surprise some people, because we were 13th in the league in RS that season.
If Hillman can manage to not screw things up too many more teams, I honestly think this team could win the division, and if they do, the team is really built for postseason success. Great starting pitching, a dominant closer, and short-sequence offense are 3 of the most important qualities needed for success in the post season.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on Apr 20, 2009 1:31 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
As I posted at Driveline earlier this season
The Royals where projected to have the best overall starting pitching, although the systems had HoRam as being aveage, and didn’t like Davies… Whatever. Projection systems are such that one expects them to be less accurate on individual players, and more accurate on groups of players.
Having said, that, of course the pitching isn’t’ going to stay this good, as you say. But right now, it’s utterly lights out. As for the offense getting better — well, sure, it probably will overall. Teahen, DDJ, Buterl, etc. are going to hit better. On the other hand, I’ll gladly wager with anyone that Mike Jacobs will not finish the season with anything like a .900 OPS (given >450 PAs), much less they 1.041 he has now. CoCo Crisp is hitting a bizarre .200/.373/.550 line. Alberto Callaspo, I’m guessing, will not finish the season with a .375 BA.
The other guys will get better, and Gordon will come back… but right now the Royals, as a team, are hitting .241/.319/.415. They’ll get better, but that’s not much worse than what I imagine they’ll hit over a full season.
So, I like the optimism, and it certainly looks as if the Royals have a better shot at the division than I thoguht at the beginning of the year. The pitching looks great, but while some guys are going to start hitting better, some of them are producing over their heads now — in other words, my realistic bet is that the offense is not going to improve nearly as much as the pitching is going to regress to true talent levels.
Does that mean the Royals can’t win the division? Not necessarily, I’m just trying to put the relative performances of each side of the ball into perspective.
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Apr 20, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
and i would expect
that while there will be regression from Meche, Greinke, Daives, and bullpen, there will also be outliers on the other end of the spectrum as they either come back to normal, or are let go/hurt.
Don't Stop Believing!
yeah, that's all I meant
I could have put it more quickly by just saying that I think, taken as wholes, the overall offense is much closer to its probably level of performance than the overall starting pitching
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by Matt Klaassen on Apr 20, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Scotty Rebel says, "True dat"
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 20, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
The Pitching Battle for Grass Creek.
We have 4 pitchers in the top 30 on the fangraph’s leaderboard for FIP (ranking 3, 5, 19, and 29). The Mariners have 3 (Bedard-2, Hernandzez-16, and Washburn-24). All other teams have at most 2.
by Trey Hillman's Chin on Apr 20, 2009 1:38 PM EDT reply actions
The Royals will win that particular battle
Both Ponson and Washburn will fall off of that leaderboard (with Ponson likely falling farther), leaving the Royals with 3 and the M’s with 2. And then of course it’s just a matter of time before Bedard goes down with injury again.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 20, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
There have been a number of trades over the last couple of years
that I wish the Royals could have made. The Mariners trading for Bedard (among realistic ones, trades where the player might come here and stay for awhile) is one I really would have liked to see the Royals make.
But didn't the Bedard trade blow up in the M's face?
That has proven to be a horrible trade for them.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 20, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah....
jones, tillman and sherrill for Bedard I believe….
we’re talking Moose, Cortes and another one of the arms….
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 20, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
And I really think it would have taken more than that
One of the reasons the O’s were willing to do that trade was that the best prospect they were getting was major league ready. None of the Royals best prospects was within a couple years of the majors.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 20, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, I know it hasn't worked out great, we'll how this year goes, and the next.
They certainly gave up a lot. Overall, analysis, maybe not enough return for what they gave up. But the fan in me looks at it and thinks, wow, imagine if Bedard was pitching in-between Greinke and Davies this year.
Bedard looked great at the time
Young, cheap, dominant. Of course his mechanics and makeup turned out to be big negatives. The entire value of having Bedard is elusive. He’s a lot like Sheets. When he’s healthy and pitching, you feel great because you’ve got an ace on your staff. And then we he goes on the 60-day DL you feel like he’s a complete waste of money and roster space.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 20, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
this isn't a very important question due to the relatively little money involved, but
if we were to deem Ramirez as the player to DFA (because he’s the least deserving player on the staff that we would feasibly cut) then some other team decided to take a chance on him, do they owe him the pro-rated minimum for the time he’s on their team or for the rest of the season regardless?
i’m not clear on just how cheap it is to take a flier on a pitcher.
DFA
Simply opens up a spot on the roster for someone else. After HoRam is DFAed, he has to be either traded, waived or outright released. If he is traded, he is someone else’s problem (paging Mr. Wade, Mr. Ed Wade). If he is waived, every team in baseball has the opportunity to claim him and take on his entire remaining salary. If he clears waivers and no one wants his contract, the Royals can either assign him to the minors (and he has the choice to accept or refuse assignment) or release him. If they release him, the Royals are obligated to pay his salary, minus whatever HoRam’s new team pays him (probably the league minimum, although there may be a bidding war since he’s LEFT-HANDED!)
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
If the Royals ended up releasing HoRam, then he becomes a FA and he would get whatever he negotiates with that team. The minimum that they could pay him would be a pro-rated portion of league minimum. Now, I’m not sure, but I don’t think that pro-rated portion of league minimum would be deducted from the money the Royals owe him. I think if the Royals release him, then they are on the hook for the entire $1.8M regardless.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 20, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
If he signs elsewhere, the pro-rated portion of the league minimum gets deducted from the Royals' obligation
With that ~$200,000 in savings, the Royals could buy a seventh round draft pick out of his community college commitment.
Woohoo!
Or maybe a 16-year-old Dominican.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 20, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I think lots of good ones go for $200K
There will be many that get more money. And there will be many that get less than $200K that end up performing better than the 7-figure signees. It all depends on the quality of your scouts.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 20, 2009 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Well...
quality of scouts and the quality of their abilities to get kickbacks.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
by Sweep_the_Leg on Apr 20, 2009 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't mind giving the starters an extra days rest
if Gil needs it. Please don’t start HoRam though !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Banni or Tejeda PLEASE
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
Beyond the obvious quality of this post,
I would like to personally thank NYRoyal for posting this to the front page so that when I log on I don’t have to see that pathetic photo of Kyle (compassionately moved below the screen frame now.)
Will (royalsreview) gets the credit for that
I almost always put my fanshots in the fanshot section and then have Will make the decision whether it should move to the front page or not. And I do agree that the pic of Farnsworth really belongs below the fold.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Apr 20, 2009 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Has Will done damage to himself?
Haven’t seen his comments the past couple of days. Was the Sunday debacle too much for him?
so the answer is "yes"
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on Apr 21, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
OT:
But i noticed Adam Dunn has 17 walks already. Wow.
The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.
shocking!!!!!!!!!!!
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 20, 2009 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Cool, but...
I love coming to this site and learning new stuff and reading different opinions, but I am completely lost when it comes to these stats. It would be awesome if you could put a little link to what it means or just a quick definition. That would make the uninformed like me a little more likely to keep coming back. Thanks.
tRA
is a newer stats created by Graham MacAfee, who is finishing or has already finished his Master’s in biomechanics. It can be found (along with a good glossary explaining the stats there) at www.statcorner.com.
To pimp my own work a bit, here’s a post I did introducing different ways of evaluating pitching performance and their relative advantages and disadvantages, which also contains a fair number of links to explanations of FIP, tRA, etc.: Thoughts on Pitcher Value
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Apr 20, 2009 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions
it's all easier than it seems
heck, I sort of understand most of it
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Apr 20, 2009 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Awesome
I would like to be able to throw these stats around sometime.
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