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Catching Up as the Royals Head to Rainy Cleveland

This weekend, just as the Alex Gordon story was developing, I was down in Brownsville, Texas, for a wedding. Although I'm a blogger, I'm not really a huge travel-with-my-laptop kinda guy, if I don't have to be. As such, I wasn't around for most of the Gordon discussion, the two big wins against the Rangers, or the latest edition of Treyball. Thankfully, the site has evolved to the point where it can pretty much run itself, and most of the time there's a fanpost or fanshot that's ready before I can get one going and just as good.

Nevertheless, after more or less a week away from the site, I'm glad to be back in the swing of things. The only problem is that the weather forecast looks horrible in Cleveland. The chances of precipitation the next three days are: 60%, 60%, & 30%, with temps in the high 30s. The over/under on games played between the Royals & Indians is at 1.5. If they make it to two games, it'll most likely be an "eff the fans game": a six hour, multiple delays affair, played in horrible conditions that gets the total to two.

  • Royals Review is on Twitter. SB Nation is having a contest between the blogs to see who can get the most followers or somesuch. Things haven't been hammered out, but when the first blog gets to 5,000 followers, a random follower is going to win a prize, most likely two tickets to their local team's game. (As you can tell, the details are still being worked out.) Frankly, I'm not sure what the point of Twitter is unless you're someone who doesn't want to blog either due to time or attention-span constraints. Anyway, I post site updates there, as well as random observations. Follow, and watch your life change.
  • I don't really know how I feel about the Bannister-Ho-Ram-Waechter switcheroo. The Royals are replacing a guy who has been getting killed by BABIP with a guy who is likely to do the same. As much as I complain about Ho-Ram, I still kinda like him out there more than Ponson, but the early results have been so strong in the other direction that more or less we should all shut up about Ponson for awhile. With the weather being what it is in Cleveland, either the move is going to be somewhat irrelevant short term or Bannister will be asked to risk injury pitching in mud so that someone more important doesn't have to.
  • We need more Maier and less Bloomquist in right field. Neither guy can hit, so you might as well play the better gloveman. I don't know how Trey can look at Bloomquist and say, "this is my right-fielder."
  • So far so good on using TPJ properly: he's at six PAs in six games.
  • Mike Aviles is hitting .200/.213/.244 in 47 PAs. Are you worried?
  • Coco Crisp has a .373 OPB, despite only hitting .200. I didn't think he could do it, so far so good.
  • Mike Jacobs has been driving the offense for about a week, after a miserable start. In his last 24 PAs, Jacobs is hitting .364/.417/1.000. This may be his best little run since he went .538/625/1.538 in his first 16 PAs as a Met.
  • The Royals have recieved fifteen scoreless innings from the Wright-Cruz-Tejeda trio, which has been almost like having a second Greinke on the staff. Given that more heralded types like Ron Mahay and (cough) Kyle Farnsworth haven't been terribly effective, those dudes have been huge. In modern baseball, sometimes your bullpen is only as good as your third-best guy and said trio has held the non-Soria portion of the bullpen together.

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more cowbell baby

Turns Out, I appreciate the PLAN but DAMMIT it thuckth to lose

by BillyMojo on Apr 21, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

someone needs to tell Trey that the term is cowbell not cowshit

Farnsy=cowshit
Soria = Cowbell

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Apr 21, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

some great Mike Jacobs months

June 2006: .361/.397/.639 in 78 PA

July 2006: .337/.352/.618 in 91 PA

April 2007: .310/.395/.549 in 81 PA

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 21, 2009 3:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Wonderful

Now, how about some great Mike Jacobs seasons? Any of those?

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

by Sweep_the_Leg on Apr 21, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Decide for yourself -- I'm hoping 2009 will be one, though

2005 .310/.375/.710, .448 wOBA, 11.4 runs above average in 112 PA
2006 .262/.325/.473, .340 wOBA, 4.0 runs above average in 520 PA
2007 .265/.317/.458, .331 woBA, -0.1 runs above average in 460 PA
2008 .247/.299/.514, .338 wOBA, 4.1 runs above average in 519 PA

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 21, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'll take 2006 (or even better, 500+ PA's of his 2005 numbers)...

but I’m hopeful that 2009 will be even better, too. I never watched him much before, but it sounds like his plate approach has changed at least a little so far this year. Hopefully that continues. SEITZER, baby!!

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

by Sweep_the_Leg on Apr 21, 2009 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

new approach

On one hand, he’s swinging less than he has over his career:

Swing%, career: 52.6%
Swing , 2009: 44.1

And his First-Strike percentage is lower (which is good for hitters):

career: 60.4%
2009: 55.8%

On the other hand, what’s he swinging and not swinging at?

Z-Swing is pitches swung at in the strike zone:

career: 76.3%
2009: 62.8%

O-Swing is pitches swung at outside the strike zone:

career: 29.1%
2009: 30.6%

So, while he is being more “patient” in terms of swinging at less pitches, he’s swinging at about the same or more pitches outside the zone, while taking more strikes.

What does this all mean? I don’t know. It’s only been two weeks. Worth tracking, though.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 21, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

That makes sense

And it’s a good sign…in theory….

By taking more strikes that he deems (in theory) as pitches he can’t drive, he works more 2 strike counts. At that point, (in theory) he is becoming a more defensive hitter, swinging at pitches that may be outside of the strike zone in order to stay alive at the plate.

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Apr 21, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

no kidding

the Yankees could use the same method to stagger a player’s good month’s with A-Rod’s inevitable choking~!

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 21, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

I am a little concerned about Aviles

I think everyone expected some regression, and it’s still early, but there have been games where he just looks a litlte lost at the plate. I think moving Callaspo into the 2 hole for the time being would help him. I’m still confident that he’s not another Febles or Berroa, though.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

by Sweep_the_Leg on Apr 21, 2009 3:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Can someone who saw more games than I last year

confirm whether Avilanche has always stepped noticeably toward 3rd base when he hits? Thought it was pretty strange.

by stuckinstl12 on Apr 21, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Damn.

Seems like pitchers could exploit that pretty easily by busting him outside. Of course, they probably would have made that adjustment by the end of 2008 though, so who knows.

by stuckinstl12 on Apr 21, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

He covers the outside of the plate

AMAZINGLY well for someone that strides so awkwardly

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Apr 21, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Probably due to the fact that he also...

stands so close to the pitcher in the batter’s box. Helps to cut down on the breaking ability for many pitches.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

by Sweep_the_Leg on Apr 21, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

I was worried

But his demeanor and approach at the plate seemed to take a turn for the better in Texas (Go ahead & hammer away saber-nerds, I know you can’t formulate approach, and since I’m not a professional scout, my opinion is shit). The first 5-10 games of the season he just looked like he was trying not to regress, and I was scared shitless. He looked a lot loose rin Texas. Is it possible he just smoked some grass, or had a qualuude to chillax a li’l bit? I guess, so I’m still not ‘not worried’ but he’s on the right track IMO

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Apr 21, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Aviles seems like a very self-aware and well-grounded...

baseball player, given his draft history, continual snubbing by the big club, etc. I think he’s acutely aware of the history of sophomore slumps for rookies that have big breakout years, and he desperately doesn’t want to be one of those guys. So, he might be putting even more pressure on himself at the beginning of his second year, trying to prove last year wasn’t a fluke.

And that is my professional armchair psychologist opinion, based upon articles/quotes I’ve read, and his body language and demeanor that I’ve seen on TV. So quibble with it at your peril.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

by Sweep_the_Leg on Apr 21, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

In Response to Aviles....

I remember during the WBC reading that, although Aviles was honered to play in the WBC, that he felt that it took away from his off season preparations. I think he ll come around and be consistently just below what we grew to love last year. Just a hair though. There will be games where we sing his praises again, no question!

by 2LegittoShit on Apr 21, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

not worried about Aviles

2 weeks… 2 weeks… much better players have probably had much worse stretches. We knew he was probably going to be below average as a hitter this year. Deep breathes.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 21, 2009 4:30 PM EDT reply actions  

or breaths

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 21, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Trey Hillman is going to shatter...

the conventional wisdom that even a terrible manager can only cost you 3-5 wins a season.

by djk royal on Apr 21, 2009 4:44 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Cleveland Forecast

According to weather.com

Tue.

Rain showers along with windy conditions. Snow may mix in late. Low 37F. Winds SW at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 60%.

Wed. Night

A shower or two possible early with partly cloudy skies later at night. Low 37F. Winds WNW at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

Thu. Day

57F, Wind West Northwest @ 12mph

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Apr 21, 2009 6:05 PM EDT reply actions  

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