Is Jose Duarte's Hot Start For Real?
Because simply following the big league club isn't enough to support my addiction, I check the MiLB boxscores daily. Every day, once all of the games are down, I go to milb.com and click through all of the Royals' minor league affiliates, checking the boxscores. Obviously, I want every team to win every game. But, more importantly, I want players to perform, naturally.
So far this year, one name has stuck out to me throughout my boxscore escapades: Jose Duarte. Now, of course, it is incredibly early to draw any real conclusions from this data. However, there are some things that you can point to as to why this improvement is real, and that's what I talk about below.
Jose Duarte -- FanGraphs
via media.scout.com
He's always been pegged as a defensive-first speed guy without a lot of pop. His first three seasons, he had a high BA thanks to some lucky BABIPs and decent patience. This year, though, he's been hitting. And hitting and hitting and hitting. Last year in Double-A Northwest Arkansas, his BABIP luck finally caught up to him. He hit .250 with very little power. He did walk some, but still, an OPS of .663 isn't pretty whatsoever.
This year, though, he's hitting .390/.480/.512. If he could keep that up, he'd be a top prospect. Of course, his BABIP is an entirely unattainable .457. However, there is still reason to believe he has real improvement this season. A couple of reasons, actually.
For one, his LD% rate. Yes, it's hard to compare different league's LD%, because a line drive has a different definition everywhere. Still, you can glean some information. Duarte's LD% has gone up from 7% as a rookie in 2005 (in the AZL) to 22% so far this year. That is a big jump, and would partly explain his higher BA and such.
For two, his BB% rate is at an all-time high. After posting rates hovering around 9% his first couple of years in the minors, his BB% rate is 16.3% so far this season. Likewise, his K% has gone down from a career average around 8% to 14.6% so far this year.
So, who knows. Hopefully his increase in BB% in K% is for real, as is his much-improved LD% rate. If so, combined with his defense and speed (6 SBs so far this year), we could have a really solid 4th OF prospect. Maybe even a sleeper at CF. Definitely someone you should be watching.
Along with Duarte, there have been some other prospecta that have caught my eye:
Other Hot Starters
Nick Francis -- Yes, I know he's old for A-ball (23 years old; he didn't play in 2007), and he has a long way to go before really emerging on people's radar. However, he is ripping the absolute cover off of the ball, to the tune of a .400/.523/.714 line. Yes, that's a 1.237 OPS. The biggest reason he's improved so much from last season is his BB% and K% rates. HIs BB% rate has gone up to 22.5% from 8% last year, his K% rate falling from 31% last year to 16.5% this year. His LD% is awfully low, but again, LD% rates are hard to get a read on.
In any case, he deserves a promotion, and soon. Wilmington's outfield is stacked, yes, but we need to see just how good they are. Right? And yes, I know it's only 35 AB's. But those 35 AB's are so off-the-charts good, it's worth watching.
Brian McFall -- McFall has always been a power machine. Early on this year, though, his SLG has gone way up. Way, way up. Last year's SLG was .454. This year, so far, he's slugging .650. He is still hardly walking (actually, his BB% rate has gone down to under 5%) and he strikes out at on(his K% rate is 25%), but when he hits it, it almost always goes far. Of his 11 hits, 6 are doubles. Another 3 are HR's. His ISO is .375. If his power surge keeps up, he's another guy to watch out for.
Jeff Bianchi -- Everyone knows Bianchi's story. Widely considred a reach as a 2nd round pick, he put on two fabulous hitting displays in the Arizona League, but both seasons were cut short due to injury. His last two seasons he's been healthy, but incredibly underwhelming. So far this year, though, he's been hitting way better. Of all of my people to talk about, Bianchi is probably the least "for real". His BABIP is a ridiculous .475, despite a LD% of 16%. So, enjoy the hot streak, and he has the potential to keep it up, but don't count on it. His BB% and K% have stayed about the same, showing very little improvement.
Clint Robinson -- I've always liked this guy. He's way old for his level (24 for a A+ player), and he was a college senior when drafted. However, he's always raked, and this year is no different. He doesn't walk (his BB% rate is a laughable 2.4%), but makes pretty solid contact and has a ton of power. A ton. Of. Power. In a double-header today, he hit 3 HR's. His ISO is nearly .300. And compared to Bianchi's low LD% rate, he is posting a 25% rate on the same team. Obviously, he is far from an actual "prospect", but if his power keeps up he could be worth watching. Personally, this is my favorite part of the minors. The guys who probaly aren't good enough to really play in the majors, but it's always fun to dream that they could. Right?
***
OK. Hopefully that isn't too brutal to read. Duarte is really exciting me. I hope, hope, hope he can be "for real". That would be utterly fantastic, wouldn't it?
I want to do something like this for the pitchers too, whenever I get the time. Maybe it'll be soon, maybe not. We'll have to see.
2 recs |
17 comments
Comments
Just a note:
I never did get around to the Omaha roster. Maybe I’ll do an addendum, or something.
by rockchalk on Apr 23, 2009 1:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Huh, I'd noticed Duarte's been doing well
But hadn’t thought much of it. What impresses me most is his 8 walks against 6 strikeouts after striking out nearly twice as often as he walked last year at the same level. It’s obviously a tiny sample, but if he can keep walking as much or more than he strikes out for another month or so, I think that would go a long way toward convincing people that he’s got AA competition under control.
On the other hand, it’s tough to look at any of these hot starts and say they’re “for real” at this point, even though Duarte’s LD% does look promising. The problem is with such a small sample size, the good LD% is as liable to be luck-inflated as the high BABIP. Of the guys you’ve mentioned, really only Duarte and Bianchi can be considered prospects, and I think it’s pretty clear that neither is likely to keep up at their current torrid paces.
That said, I’m still definitely excited by Bianchi’s hot start as well. For one, Bianchi makes very hard contact for a middle infielder to the tune of a .187 ISO. His .209 ISO so far this year might somewhat BABIP-inflated, but even so, you have to make hard contact to luck into doubles and triples. Making hard contact is also very important factor in elevating BABIP. Combine his hard contact with solid speed, and we might be looking at a player who can sustain a relatively high BABIP, although .451 is obviously out of the question. For his career, his BABIP has never been under .300. The problems with Bianchi are that he doesn’t walk and he strikes out a ton. If he could just take a couple steps forward in pitch recognition, we could be looking at an all-star middle infield prospect.
by kcdc1 on Apr 23, 2009 3:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The great thing about Bianchi's weaknesses
is that pitch recognition is the one thing you’d really expect to see a lot of improvement as a player matures, especially in Bianchi’s case. Although Bianchi is 22, he’s dealt with a lot of injuries since he was drafted out of HS, and he’s still had less than 1000 professional plate appearances, and has yet to have at least 500 plate appearances in a single season. It’d be great to see what he’s capable of in an injury-free season.
by kcdc1 on Apr 23, 2009 3:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he had back surgery....
that takes usually around a year to two years to completely get over…. expect big things from him soon.
The 2009 Official You Got Rocked by the Royals and Sent to the Minors List
1. Josh Rupe TEX April 17
by 306008 on Apr 24, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
big things like neck surgery?
I kid, I kid…
what kind of back surgery? Eric Chavez, “I’m fine as long as my position doesn’t require that I bend over” surgery? or some less problematic sort of injury?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on Apr 24, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
At 24 years of age in AA for the second year, it's time for him to blossom
I don’t know if this is for real or not, but he needs to take a significant step forward to get him into AAA either this season or to start next season or his professional career is in jeopardy of stalling. And usually once that happens, you don’t move up anymore, and after a couple more years it’s time to start looking for a real job.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Apr 23, 2009 3:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It does seem to be the age of moving up or dying on the vine
Minors are filled with players who have one or two excellent tools but just can’t close the gap in their game enough to make the majors. Duarte is an outstanding defender with good speed. He needs to be able develop leadoff skills in order to make a difference. Off to a great start so far!
by daveyork on Apr 23, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kila?
The 2009 Official You Got Rocked by the Royals and Sent to the Minors List
1. Josh Rupe TEX April 17
by 306008 on Apr 24, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wasn't he 24 last season?
and in AA to start the season?
Just asking, seems like he “timed” it just right according to NY’s timeline
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on Apr 24, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just a sidenote
Could statistics automatically link to definitions? Mouseover tooltips would be even better. I’m struggling to keep all of these new acronyms in my wee little head.
by kcjb on Apr 23, 2009 5:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Rockchalk comes through again!
I've got crazy flipper fingers!
by labbadabba on Apr 23, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good analysis
Living a mile from the AA stadium I see a lot of games. I love the idea of Duarte, but I really think he’s Joey Gathright 2.0. Hope I’m wrong.
I am higher on McFall.
Russ Gload = Doug Mientiewicz....without the pop
by Dubya on Apr 23, 2009 11:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So I live north of Springfield.... I'm thinking of driving down there... any suggestions?
The 2009 Official You Got Rocked by the Royals and Sent to the Minors List
1. Josh Rupe TEX April 17
by 306008 on Apr 24, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great stadium...
Let me know if/when you come down and I can send you some restaurant suggestions
Russ Gload = Doug Mientiewicz....without the pop
by Dubya on Apr 24, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A Q Chicken House...mmmmmm!
We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan
by Royal Kingdom on Apr 24, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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