SHEALY/KILLA KILA NOW?
by JobDDT on Apr 27, 2009 1:07 AM EDT
60 comments
On the heels of another 0-4 night from Billy Butler, one has to wonder exactly how much a terrible baserunner/project at 1B is hurting this Royals team.
In Omaha, Ryan Shealy is hitting .369 in 65 AB. While Davies has gotten a chance to prove his September was no fluke, Shealy hasn't had that same honor, demoted since the beginning of the year.
"Killa" Kila Ki'iahue leads Omaha in HR with 3, but his average is only .192. He has drawn an incredible 17 BB, though.
Coming into this season, some Royals anaylsts said the three most important cogs to this team were the youthful core of Gordon, Aviles and Butler. All three have been complete trainwrecks at the plate (Gordon in limited time, as he is injured now).
How long do we wait out the storm? When do we start expecting things from Billy Butler?
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We still have a logjam
Both are tempting (especially Shealy), but I don’t think we make a move just yet.
Pecota, watch over us.
by castille on Apr 25, 2009 10:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Butler has nothing left to prove at AAA
You just gotta stick it out for now
by raefzilla on Apr 25, 2009 11:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And Shealy does?
Shealy has NOTHING left to prove in AAA. Yet, he gets the AAAA label unfairly.
What has Butler done to avoid the AAAA label? Underwhelm all of us with his power?
Farny being Farny.
by JobDDT on Apr 25, 2009 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm not sure whether "AAAA" means anything
and I’m actually sort of a Shealy fan — I think he could be a useful contributor as a platoon guy somehwere, maybe even the Royals.
But here are two numbers to consider
23
29
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on Apr 25, 2009 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
+1
Hillman's facial hair is inconsistent. I am anything but
by McClure 'stache on Apr 25, 2009 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really don't think that gap should be a big factor
If you think Ryan Shealy can contribute more than Billy Butler this year if given the same amount of playing time at 1B and at-bats (which I do), a six year gap in age shouldn’t hold you back from pulling the trigger. After all, this was the year we were supposed to be a contender, right?
Billy certainly has more time to get better, but he is way behind schedule and has a lot of catching up to do.
Farny being Farny.
by JobDDT on Apr 25, 2009 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hold the phone...
a 23 year old that is our starting 1st basemen is way behind schedule?
If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.
by Warden11 on Apr 26, 2009 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Performance wise
Not in the “what is given to you” category.
Farny being Farny.
by JobDDT on Apr 26, 2009 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I get what your saying, but here is why I don't agree
Just my viewpoint, of course. Keep in mind that I’m an idiot who just wastes too much time on baseball. There are about 158 people on here whom you should listen to before me, probably including yourself. I just like talking about this stuff. Anyway:
1) The Big One: it’s only been three weeks. That doesn’t mean much
2) Minor League performance. Let’s take Ryan Shealy’s 2008 and (the tiny slice of the) 2009 seasons in Omaha. All data from www.minorleaguesplits.com. I wish they listed PAs rather than ABs, but whatever
2008: .282/.376/.502
2009: .350/.385/.417
That second line looks impressive because of the high BA, but, of coures, that’s unsustainable for just about anyone, even in AAA, except for maybe Howie Kendrick or Alberto Callaspo. And it’s based on a .500 BABIP. I like Shealy, but I don’t think he’s that fast. And if you take away the AVG, there isn’t much to the line — walk, isolated power, etc.
Now let’s look at Shealy’s MLE’s for the same periods:
2008: .236/.310/.389
2009: .295/.323/.344
Not too impressive. MLE’s are sort of shaky in some ways, but if anything, they are too generous, most times, because they are based on how players who play in that league and the one higher in the same period, so there is some selective sampling going on… So that isn’t as impressive.
How about Butler:
Raw Stats at Omaha, we’ll go 2007 and 2008 since he wasn’t at Omaha this year (yet, and hopefully won’t be):
2007: .289/.412/.552
2008: .337/.417/.564
And the numbers for both seasons actually reflect a low BABIP given his line drive rate. How about the MLEs for those seasons?
2007: .239/.337/.423
2008: .276/.339/.457
Not great in 2007, but certainlyl better than Shealy’s. 2008’s numbers don’t blow you away for a 1B, but its been a long time since a KC 1B did something like that.
Here’s the thing: not only to Butler’s numbers over that period blow Shealy’s away, but Shealy’s come during his age 28 and age 29 seasons, while Butler’s come during his age 21 and 22 seasons. While players obviously age and progress in different ways, I think we’re making a good guess if we say that Butler is quite young and still developing, while Shealy is most like as good as he’ll ever be, and at 29, likely at the beginning of his decline.
I’m not sure one month of great performance from Shealy last September outweighs that.
3) Defense: I grant that Shealy is almost certainly better at first. But Billy’s holding his own so far.
4) Baserunning: Billy is bad, but in a limited sample, with a weighted average and regression, Shealy’s actually worse.
Just my thoughts on the matter, at boring and hopefully not too confusing length. Like I said, take them with a salt lick.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on Apr 26, 2009 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
You should write a book.
As always, a well argued point. Looks like I have some research to do myself about MLE tomorrow.
I’d be interested to read your take on Billy vs. Kila, if you have time.
Farny being Farny.
by JobDDT on Apr 26, 2009 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just wanted to make it clear,
that I’m not anti-Shealy either. I thought he did enough last year to warrant a look with the big league club. He hit well when he had the chance in September and he definitely could provide some pop for the line up. Royals management obviously sees something they don’t like with him because he isn’t even getting a chance.
I just think (as do most people) that it is way too early to give up on Billy. The guy has raked everywhere and I believe he will eventually hit the ball well at the big league level.
If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.
by Warden11 on Apr 26, 2009 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I gotta go with
thinking that it’s not a matter of opposing pitching having already “figured him out” a la Hammerin’ Hamelin
He’s evolving and turning the tables, basically “figuring out” the opposing pitching. Hopefully Seitzer evolves into Charley Lau and makes Butler/Gordon/Matsoukas(eventually)/Hosmer(wow he’s not hot this year yet) grow into something like this (in the same sequence) Sweeney (without injuries)/Brett (without hemmorhoids)/“nobody to compare him to because we’ve never had an offensively outstanding shortstop so I’ll say Hal McRae”/Wally Joyner (if his entire career had been in Royal Blue)
Jeeminy Christmas if that happened.
Wow. I previewed that. Damn I’m confusing.
Come on, Annie, think of something clever to say, huh? Something full of magic, religion, bullshit. Come on, dazzle me.
by BillyMojo on Apr 26, 2009 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not true. Looks like you forgot the sarcasm font.
Keep in mind that I’m an idiot who just wastes too much time on baseball. There are about 158 people on here whom you should listen to before me, probably including yourself. I just like talking about this stuff."I'll be the first one to tell you, Don't follow me. I'll let you down. Follow Jesus." Trey Hillman
OK, got it.
The General Theory of Royaltivity
by kabrink on Apr 26, 2009 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i have a headache
from imagining worse base running than billy butler’s.
one thing i think billy could learn in AAA- the changeup is a pitch that comes in at a different velocity than the fastball. i hate watching him learn that at the major league level.
by 9il on Apr 26, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's tough to do
but I guess we’ve got to be patient with both him and Gordon. We really don’t have much of a choice. It really sucks, though, it would sure be nice to have a guy just bust out a la Longoria or Braun
I hereby resign from this post.
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Apr 26, 2009 11:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
it would sure be nice to have a guy just bust out a la Longoria or Braun
or Aviles
I am Billy Butler's Gold Glove.
by cbrett42 on Apr 27, 2009 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aviles wasn't a stud prospect
And so far isn’t sustaining it. Those two were, and are.
The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.
by kcbottom9th on Apr 27, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can't give up on Butler
He’s one of the foundations of the future squad. A bad April by a 22-year-old hitter is no reason to push the panic button. If he doesn’t snap out of it by June or so, then send him down to Omaha to get back in the groove and bring up Shealy.
I kind of feel bad for Shealy. I think he’s probably a below-average but above-replacement 1B, and there must be at least five teams that need one of those. I don’t think we could get much for him in a trade, though.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
by Juancho on Apr 27, 2009 2:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sending a guy to AAA
Is by no means “Giving up on him”.
Did we “Give up” on mark Teahen when he was sent down for a spell when he was struggling?
Did we “Give up” on David DeJesus when he was sent down after being called up early & struggling?
Did we “Give up” on Brian Bannister or Luke Hochevar since they have been sent down?
There is very little reason NOT to send him down at this point. Last year he was sent down and pouted about it, but came back motivated and hit better after his call-up. Last year, that meant handing the 1B duties to Ross Gload, this year it means Jacobs/Shealy/Kila while Billy works out the kinks in Omaha. You can make the argument (with hindsight) that he shouldn’t have been sent down last year, due to lack of depth @ 1B/DH in KC, you cannot make that argument this year.
The one reason we do have (IMO) not to send him down is that he did react so unfavorably to the decision last year. Ther is a decent chance that he’ll throw a major hissy fit if he is sent down this year again (just as it may be), and it may eliminate any chance we have what-so-ever of locking him up long term. Now, that being said, I think this reason is bull-shit, but I have no doubt that it will factor into the thought process of GMDM, if he is indeed contemplating sending BB down to Omaha…
BOOM! ROASTED!
by GoBabies!! on Apr 27, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on Apr 27, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You mean Esteban?
Marriage is a great institution, for those that like being in institutions.
by fats on Apr 27, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Germans?"
“Forget it. He’s rolling.”
Bottom line is, regardless of what Billy would think of it, sending him down isn’t likely to do much good. He’d go down, rake the PCL for a few weeks (as he’s always done), and then maybe come back up and do well. Maybe not. I think he needs to just stay up and work through it like the rest of the big kids do. If your kid can’t stay up on his bike, do you keep putting the training wheels back on? At some point, he’s got to get on the thing, start riding it, and keep it upright without using them. Sending Billy back and forth between KC and Omaha every time he has an extended slump isn’t going to do him or the Royals any good.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
by Sweep_the_Leg on Apr 27, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not a matter of helping Billy out
It’s a matter of Billy not helping KC win games at this point.
BOOM! ROASTED!
by GoBabies!! on Apr 27, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't say that the Royals primary concern should be Billy and his feelings
My point was simply that I don’t think sending him down to AAA will prove anything to anyone as far as his development is concerned. He needs to get some serious MLB time under his belt and learn how to deal with his lack of production/slump in the majors. If there is thought about sending Billy down, the overwhelming majority of that consideration needs to be an analysis of whether Shealy or Kila will help the Royals more right now…not what Billy will think of it or what it means for his development/ego/fragile psyche.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
by Sweep_the_Leg on Apr 27, 2009 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Which was my point
I wasn’t referring to his feelings/attitude, or even his development as a player being improved by being shipped down to AAA.
My point was that he is not helping the team win games right now. That is a known fact. If it continues, in a season where your team has a VERY realistic shot at contending, there may be no other recourse but to send him down & bring up hsealy or Kila.
I didn’t say/don’t think that it is the proper move right now, but if his slow start extends through the Mothers day or so, the conversation has to take place in the GM’s office…
BOOM! ROASTED!
by GoBabies!! on Apr 27, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is this season about rehabilitating Billy Butler
or contending for a playoff spot in a piss poor division?
Farny being Farny.
by JobDDT on Apr 27, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
See my comment two posts above yours
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
by Sweep_the_Leg on Apr 27, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're right, I didn't use exactly the right words
I didn’t mean “give up on” permanently. But this guy has nothing to prove at Triple A. A bad April doesn’t mean you send a promising young player back down again. The only reason I can think of to send him down is to get him back in a groove beating up on lower-level pitching, and it’s too early to push the panic button and do that. Butler needs to practice hitting in the big leagues if he’s going to get any better at it.
I mentioned in a post before the season, by the way, that I smell a similarity between Butler and Gregg Jefferies.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
by Juancho on Apr 28, 2009 3:13 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You're still not reaing the point...
The point in sending Butler down (if it comes to pass) will NOT be in the hopes for Billy to all of a sudden ‘figure something out in AAA’.
The point will be to bring up someone that will produce more than he has to this point in MLB. I still think Billy could be a HELL of a hitter, but I for one would NOT be willing to sit by with a guy that is a 1B/DH, a need to produce offensively position, if he is hitting around .200 with little pop through Mid-May, whether the guy was an uber-prospect or not, when there are 2 players that have a GREAT, if not GUARANTEED shot of bettering the numbers that Billy is putting up.
The point in sending him down (again, IF it happens) will be to make the Kansas City Royals a better team immediately, not in 3 years, and we need to get out of that mindset IMO.
BOOM! ROASTED!
by GoBabies!! on Apr 28, 2009 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are pushing him down the depth chart
Not sending him down to “get his head right” or whatever. Got it.
"I'll be the first one to tell you, Don't follow me. I'll let you down. Follow Jesus." Trey Hillman
OK, got it.
The General Theory of Royaltivity
by kabrink on Apr 28, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well yea
If ya wanna go ahead & take my 6 or so paragraphs of rambling and put them into 2 concise sentences :-P
BOOM! ROASTED!
by GoBabies!! on Apr 28, 2009 9:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You all are crazy
Ryan Shealy is way better than Billy The no hitting Butler… Ryan was on a tear last year with all the homeruns at the end of the season. Everyone needs to step up and reconize talent when they see it……… Dont see age as a factor here he was proven at the end of last year and look at him this year in the minors. I am not going to say give him a shot. I am going to say if we have any chance at the divison he is needed…… EVERYONE LISTEN WE NEED RYAN IN THE LINE UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by bbar999 on Apr 27, 2009 10:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Ryan is that you?
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
by Sweep_the_Leg on Apr 27, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
September call up stats are meaningless...
…just like spring training stats. Guys playing out the string…working against other AAAA or minor league pitching. You can’t put any stock in what happens in a September call-up. You’ll be sorely disappointed. There’s a reason that Ryan Shealy passed through waivers unclaimed.
by RaulDuke on Apr 27, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why didn't everyone on the Royals put up those numbers?
If September is so meaningless, why wasn’t everyone hitting to Shealy’s level?
Shealy was out best hitter in September, and whether that had to do with this bullshit theory that all teams mail it in when Sept. 1 comes along.
That theory is flawed because
a) teams (white sox, twins, etc) are still contending for playoff spots and will likely play harder than they have the entire season during this period.
b) we played seattle and oakland, two teams pretty much eliminated in May, in September. So did they just wait until Sept. 1 to start mailing it in? Or were they mailing it in all along and, thus, you can’t judge anything anyone did against any team eliminated that early?
c) guys are playing for new contracts and deals for next year (which I think is what motivated Shealy).
Shealy raked and should be getting another chance this season. We made an inane trade for Mike Jacobs and our 1B prospect of the future is hitting with David Eckstein power. Something needs to be done.
Farny being Farny.
by JobDDT on Apr 27, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Also
If anything, the Royals are PROOF that eliminated teams often times DON’T mail it in for September. If this theory were true, wouldn’t the Royals just roll over and die and let contending teams walk all over them?
Farny being Farny.
by JobDDT on Apr 27, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe their calendar was bad and they thought August was September.
And in September they thought it was October, so they thought they made the playoffs.
by AxDxMx on Apr 27, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Could Shealy Possibly play Corner OF?
Granted 1b and OF are different but if he is a good defensive 1b and could manage to be a not terrible fielder would that add to his value? He could also be a good pinch hitter late in the game vs. a righty for someone like Butler or Guillen or Olivo.
Pecota, watch over us.
by castille on Apr 27, 2009 12:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
you all are missing the bigger point
Why not call up Shealy and get rid of Tony Pena?
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on Apr 27, 2009 12:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Umm...have you seen Mike Aviles
TPJ may end up getting quite a bit of playing time given Avilanche’s struggles. He’s the only insurance we have at SS right now (which doesn’t say much for our organizational depth at that position). Hey, maybe Mark Teahen could play shortstop?!
by RaulDuke on Apr 27, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've been thinking a lot about that
We might also want to see what he can do behind the plate.
Pecota, watch over us.
by castille on Apr 27, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that dreadful Aviles slump?
yeah, it’s scary
BUt his OPS is still about 50 points higher than any single month TPJ put together last season in which he had more than 15 PAs.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on Apr 27, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, Aviles isn't going anywhere (even the bench)...
but neither is TPJ. The Royals have zero organization depth at SS (unless you count Luis Hernandez, who is just a TPJ clone)…that is anywhere near MLB-ready. Apparently, Bloomquist isn’t as Sporky as was advertised Otherwise, I think TPJ might be gone by now.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
by Sweep_the_Leg on Apr 27, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hernandez is probably worse that TPJ
his defense rates worse, and, incredibly, his bat, too.
Still, we’re talking about not taking a chance on losing TPJ on waivers (or possibly having to go through an inning or two without a shortstop)? I just think that’s overreacting. There are plenty of replacement level players out there for the taking. That’s just the way it is. Give it a week, and some Donnie Murphy type will be available for nothing.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on Apr 27, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But Donnie Murphy is clearly NOT the next Frank White
Oh, and I refuse to believe that this is possible:
and, incredibly, his bat, too.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
by Sweep_the_Leg on Apr 27, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so did I
until I crunched the numbers.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on Apr 27, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Aviles Slump...
18% LD rate and about a .200 BABIP makes it look more like a small sample anomaly than an actual slump. I say give it some time before we call it dreadful. (see also DDJ)
"I've seen the future and it's much like the present only longer." - Dan Quisenberry
by Safe@First on Apr 27, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i agree
I just mean “dreadful” meaning it looks ugly.
Aviles numbers still aren’t great when you adjust for batted ball data, but yes, he’s been unlucky. PrOPS is far from perfect, but it does an okay job of adjusting for batted ball luck season-to-season, even if the sample size is small at the moment.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on Apr 27, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I probably should have done that as a reply to RaulDuke instead of you.
It just seems like alot of people are getting down on Aviles and I wanted to point out that he’s been pretty unlucky so far and it’s really early. If I understand the stat correctly, according to the OPS-PrOPS stats you linked to, he’s the most unlucky hitter on the team right now (with DDJ in 2nd) among qualified hitters.
"I've seen the future and it's much like the present only longer." - Dan Quisenberry
by Safe@First on Apr 27, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's right
although he was one of the luckiest hitters in baseball last season.
I guess it all evens out!
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on Apr 27, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
its odd to me that the Royals would be so concerned with Hoch's arb clock
but have no problem burning years on BUtler & Gordon’s with very little payoff
by royalsreview on Apr 27, 2009 3:34 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
it's one of those mysteries of life you just have to accept
like a platoon with two righties
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on Apr 27, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Butler's time in the minors in 2007 and 2008 bought the Royals another year of team control
I think the Royals are trying to balance “improve now” with “maximize value of young players.” For better or worse, they aren’t interested in being in either ditch; they are trying to get value from being somewhere in the middle.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Apr 28, 2009 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kila has 6 years of team control taking him to age 31, if he is better then Bulter why not play him instead?
He is OPSing over .850 with a BABIP of .175!!!!! Kila’s and Butlers defense is most likely a plus to Kila. Kila is burning options anyway, so why not play the better player right now? I would think that Billy has about one more month to turn it around, and then you have to go with the better player since everything else is equal or better to play Kila. If Kila starts having neutral luck, his OPS is going to climb over one real fast.
Go Royals!
by BabyBlues on Apr 28, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"If he's better than Butler"
Is there any reason to believe he’s better than Butler? I don’t think there is.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Apr 29, 2009 3:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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