The Bellhorn Syndrome - from Darren Everson in Wall Street Journal

by BillyMojo on Apr 29, 2009 1:51 PM EDT

Article in, of all things, yesterday's Wall Street Journal on page D8 written by Darren Everson included some quotes from John Schuerholz. This article made some light bulbs go on above my head. The writer describes something he calls the "Bellhorn Syndrome" because of what Mark Bellhorn did for the BoSox in the 2004 World Series, compared to what he did during the regular season.

Additionally their are references to the swings in performance made by Brad Lildge of rthe Phillies last year compared to his previous season's suckage in Houston. As well as Tony Percival in Tampa Bay, Matt Thornton in Chicago, and Gabe Kapler in Milwaukee. The topper of all toppers though was Jeremy Affeldt's transformation from what we all saw him doing for the Royals into what he did for the Rockies.

It's made me realize that this is some of the cause for the seemingly maddening moves that GMDM and other GMs around the league are making. They are intentionally seeking that magic man that they can pick up for meager $$ that transforms somehow. To sort of quote the article, they are convinced that it is the intangible circumstance that will change a team from an 80 game winner into a 90 game winner.

It also goes on to say that this is a direct result of the increasing parity. Formerly there were a few predictably dominant teams. Now through evolution more and more small market teams are finding ways to compete and win. With the parity on the rise, it's precisely what it's going to take. That unexplainable improvement in a player whose forecast amounts to "don't touch this guy with a ten foot pole".

There has to be the counterpart to this as well. I don't have time to look it up but you guys can probably roll names of the tips of your tongues. Name the guys that went flat? You pay someone a big chunk of money based on his performance last year for another team and then his ERA for the season you have him is 1.50 higher than it was the previous year? It's maddening things such as that causing the 90 win teams to change into 80 win teams. Thoughts?

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Are you basically talking about free agent busts?

Guys like Barry Zito, Carlos Silva, Denny Neagle…

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 29, 2009 2:22 PM EDT reply actions

both ways

Bangs are the ones that were specifically named. Low dollar guys that had crappy years that paid off somehow the next year. Bellhorn led the AL in strikeouts then made good in the WS. That Tony Percival was a pitching instructor then came on and was the closer for the Rays last year. Lidge was 41for 41 in saves last year for the Phillies, but the year before that with Houston, he probably couldn’t strike ME out if I just took every pitch. Gabe Kapler came out of retirement and led his team in SLG. Affeldt pretty much stunk here something like 4.91 ERA then with the Rockies he led in appearances out of the pen and posted a 3.51 and did not allow a walk or hit in his last five appearances; which had to have helped out down the stretch.

Busts? lots of money for yeah like you said, plus is it redundant to say $9.5 for a two year contract paid to someone pitching for a team I won’t name right now?

Come on, Annie, think of something clever to say, huh? Something full of magic, religion, bullshit. Come on, dazzle me.

by BillyMojo on Apr 29, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions