Secrets of the AL Central: Defensive Rankings by UZR

by royalsreview on Apr 30, 2009 9:15 PM EDT in News Comment 111 comments

As we're starting to realize, oftentimes, when a team's performance doesn't quite make immediate sense, it's probable that the squad's ability to turn balls in play into outs is driving things. Of course, even for long periods of time, this ability can be highly influenced by luck and small fluctuations in performance -- does Guillen make that shoestring catch or does he pull up two feet short and allow a single? -- so we shouldn't take a month's worth of data as gospel.

Still, I don't think there's much intellectual harm or bad faith in presenting the data as long as we understand that it is still very very early. And yes, there's always the who knows factor when it comes to defensive stats. You'll see rankings here that jive with our eyes and others that don't.

One final caveat: again, these are rankings by UZR/150 (basically rate UZR, which I preferred slightly to raw UZR, since not everyone has played the same number of games) in the AL, which needs to be remembered. For most positions, there are two or three teams who are really objectively good, posting UZRs that suggest that they are really gaining value from their defense there. Then there are a glut of teams clustered together who are more or less passable at that position, followed by two or three teams who appear to be getting killed by their defense there.

So here's a gigantic table with all the ranks, at each position I've highlighted the division leader:

	KC	CWS	CLE	DET	MIN
1B	7th	3rd	10th	9th	12th
2B	13th	12th	14th	1st	10th
SS	5th	8th	9th	14th	6th
3B	2nd	10th	9th	7th	1st
RF	14th	6th	9th	13th	4th
LF	3rd	14th	12th	1st	8th
CF	2nd	7th	4th	5th	3rd
OF*	7th	10th	9th	5th	4th
OVERALL	6th	10th	13th	5th	4th

*overall OF ranking

Non-horrible first base defense by our Royals? Miracle, modest surprise, or statistical oddity?
Right-field is not going well, and a few games with Mitch did little to improve the overall rank.
Mark Teahen rules. Or could. Or has. Meanwhile, Joe Crede, still getting it done?
The Tigers may have the best defense in the division, and if they can find a way to improve in right and at short, where the numbers say they're horrible. Of course that would mean they stay above the Royals... so fie on that.
What the hell Cleveland?

(Data from Fangraphs here.)

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I don't know what to make

of 1B, there’s clearly been some memorable awful plays there (but some good ones as well, to be fair). Any idea of how the breakout between Butler and Jacobs would go? Butler has played surprisingly well IMO.

I hereby resign from this post.

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Apr 30, 2009 10:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

keeping in mind that 3-4 isolated weeks of defensive stats is worth about a week's of offensive stats

(in other words, not in the least predictive or indicative on their own), and these two guys have split time, further shrinknig the sample:

Billy Butler, UZR/150: +18.3

Mike Jacob, UZR/150: -33.9

These rates would/will both almost certainly regress toward average (zero) over full-time. So far, just what you’ve seen as a fan of baseball probably tells you more than these numbers.

I’m not saying the numbers are wrong, I’m just saying that it’s like picking a week’s (or even a month’s) woith of offensive stats randomly and judging a player like that. It’s would be like saying a guy “can’t hit” after 22 ABs or something — everyone knows who stupid that is.

Having said that, the stats and your eyes don’t lie. While Butler has a (justly) bad defensive rep from his time in the minors and stuff, I haven’t seen a single stat, amatuer scouting report (I don’t get to see the pro ones), or projection that doesn’t have MIke Jacobs as one of the worst defensive player (if you’re the worst defensive 1B, are by definition the worst defensive player) in baseball.

In other words, I’m agreeing with you.

About the hitting: it tells us just how much the previous three weeks haven’t really told us that Billy Butler’s wOBA increased by 60 points from Tuesdy to Wednesday, and probably wnet up significantly after today’s game.

Very nice start to the season for the Royals. Yes, there have been disappointments and frustrations which we don’t necessarily need to recount at the moment. Every player and team is overmatched in some situation during the season, and the Royals have had that happen, and it will happen again. But speaking for myself, it hasn’t felt inevitable like it has in some other parts of seasons. Yes, it’s just a “feeling,” but hey, I’m just a fan.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Apr 30, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

D-F

do any of these rankings look especially weird to you?

by royalsreview on Apr 30, 2009 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hard to say

I haven’t looked at he rankings much. I’m sorry if my post sounded like I was being dismissive of what you’re doing. It is a fun thing to do. I’m doing exactly what I get annoyed with — making a long qualification already made (by you in this case) re: small sample size.

But it’s hard to call any rankings that weird after barely a month of the season. right now, pretty much everyone on the Royals other than TPJ and Olivo is outhitting David Ortiz, so…

I guess if this was the end of the season, I’d be shocked that the White Sox could be 3rd at 1B. If Mark Teahen is the second best defensive third baseman in the AL (and I guess there’s a few games of Gordon in there), then pretty much everyone and everything’s been wrong about him since he’s been in the majors (I remember him have a great defensive rep before he came up, though, which is part of why he was so disappointing). Minnesota’s OF situations isn’t that surprising, since Delmon Young hasn’t been playing that much, and Span is really a CF who plays the corner when Gomez is playing. NIck Punto being one of the top defenders in the league… yeah, I don’t see it.

Hard to say with Cleveland. DeRosa’s playing 3rd, right? Peralta’s always had a bad defensive rep, although it’s not like he’s Michael Young out there. Who the hell is getting all the starts at SS for the Tigers? Everett or Santiago? Again, if it were the end of the season, ,maybe I’d say that Adam Everett’s injuries have finished him off,but who knows. Brandon Inge has been one of the better defenders at his position. Who’s playing left? Carlos Guillen? That won’t last. Magglio being Magglio.

What were you seeing in there?

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Apr 30, 2009 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

detroit at SS

Everett- 104 IP
Santiago- 78 IP

Gotta think their # will improve… I can’t see AE collapsing from asset to worst in the AL like that

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I also don't get the CWS 1B #s

and since I did this table in order, it basically made me doubt the process right off the bat

then again, I can see a scenario in which Konerko isn’t horrible… I guess… I mean, it is first, and he does seem to be a good scoop guy

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And how did CWS get to #6 in RF?

Jermaine Dye is horrendous in the field. Isn’t he almost always playing RF for that team?

IMO, the bottom line with many of these numbers is that one month is a tiny sample size for defensive stats, so they can easily skew wildly in one or another odd direction. It’s a lot like a week’s worth of hitting stats. Even Willie Bloomquist can hit well for a week…or a month, apparently.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 1, 2009 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

CWS in RF

Dye – 164 IP
BA- 19
Wise- 2

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dye in horrible in the OF

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton

by CubFreak on May 1, 2009 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

meant IS horrible IN the OF

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton

by CubFreak on May 1, 2009 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the rankings are slightly deceptive

they’re still posting a negative UZR

maybe the anti-arms race in the AL just out horribled them a little

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

UZR doesn't include scoops

Although MGL (the guy who created UZR) did a study and found that there weren’t terribly significant player-to-player differences — fielding grounders is much more significant in terms of player-to-player variation among 1Bs than “scoops” (broadly construed to include all “saving” of errant throws).

In other words, Ross Gload just got a little more worthless.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 1, 2009 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

would it not show up in the DB rates

at least a little?

I dunno… I guess you’re right

bottom line= Konerko is using HGH

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

DP rates you mean?

I spent 20 seconds trying to figure out how stupid I was for not knowing what ’DB" is.

It’s been a while since I read the article. He seems pretty convinced.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 1, 2009 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yea DP not DB

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

bottom line= Konerko is using HGH

and he did in HS, with kevin brown

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

really? seriously?

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton

by CubFreak on May 1, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

while egging on the Duke lacrosse team

who were totally guilty, remember?

Case closed

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 1, 2009 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kevin Brown= one of the most underratted guys ever

flaming out in NY completely killed the perception of his career

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that, and being an asshole

but yeah, he was a stud.

Seriously, did you read the piece about how Selena Roberts was one of the journalistic ringleaders of the “Duke players = guilty, not due process or evdience needed” crowd? HOw she hasn’t issued even retractions of things obviously false now, much less apologies?

If A-Rod (rightly) loses credibility for his lies, what should we make of Roberts?

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 1, 2009 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

did not know she was tied to the Duke case

I know I’m in the minority on Arod, but seriously… who is buying these books?

I can sorta see The Yankee Years, I guess, but who is thinking, “you know, I hate Arod, and I wanna drop $25 dollars on stories about how he sucks, stories that will be retold in the media anyway”

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

who knows

I wouldn’t bother. I wonder how much it will sell. People have to be sick of it. They don’t even care anymore.

If he really was tipping pitches to the opposing teams, some player, maybe who is out of the game, would have to come forward. I have a really hard time believing that.

On Roberts and DUke, see this:

I’m sure a lot of those Duke guys are jerks, but I hope they can sue the hell out of all the multitude of professors and activists who basicallyl decided that due process, evidence, etc. didn’t apply in that case. I guess “consistency” is just another bastion of Western imperialism or something.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 1, 2009 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the DA isn't exactly blameless either

which caused the greatest harm…

schools can do anything to students they want unfortunately… these guys barely got worse treatment from the school than say, someone who gets caught drinking in the dorm two times in a semester at a lot of schools

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I went to a school like that

and the professors never conspired with profs from another school to slander such students

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 1, 2009 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

right

but i would put that more in the media side of things

if the DA had not pursued charges immediately, I wonder what would have happened…

i guess its a chicken & egg thing, b/c the media coverage led to more protests/town halls/etc, but without intiall coverage it would have had no or less steam

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

also

no one would care about the Iraq War’s problems if that darn media didn’t pay so much attention to it

There are plenty of accounts of professors getting on the bandwagon. You know these guys — they talk about ~~their parents~~ Middle America being “stuck int he 1950s,” when the only people stuck inthe 1950s are them, when their “social criticism” might have been relevant for the evil, racist, bourgeiois Dagwood Bumsteads they imagine to be awaiting enlightenment through horribly-written books about. Hell, they’ve got tenure, and salaries harder to justify than Raul Ibanez’s, what do they have to lose?

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 1, 2009 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This criticism of some professors is certainly valid

But…

when the only people stuck inthe 1950s are them, when their "social criticism" might have been relevant for the evil, racist, bourgeiois Dagwood Bumsteads they imagine to be awaiting enlightenment through horribly-written books about

I think there are many Americans (especially in Middle America and the south) who are stuck in the 1950’s (or early 1960’s). Many have avoided the burden of enlightenment.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 1, 2009 2:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

let's table this discussion for now

Sorry about the politics stuff. when I’m messing around with BBall stuff, I don’t like “real” stuff (ahem) to intrude, so I shouldn’t do it to others. My bad

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 1, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, perhaps.

But, I’m surprised d_f thinks (or I’m interpreting) that professors are stuck in 50s. I would say most of them are stuck in 1968 – end everything that goes with that.

But, enough, I agree to table.

Royals baseball. Where .260 would be orgasmic.

The General Theory of Royaltivity

by kabrink on May 1, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sort of the same thing

they’re stuck in 1968, in that the think everyone else is stuck in the 1950s

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 1, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ah, now I get it

I had you backwards (ok, that didn’t come out the way I intended – get your minds out of the gutter)

Royals baseball. Where .260 would be orgasmic.

The General Theory of Royaltivity

by kabrink on May 1, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In many ways, it sucks that the social movement that was the 60's ended

I guess now we’re supposed to pretend that the various problems that were highlighted and addressed (to varying degrees) in the 60’s have been solved.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 1, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think they can sue activists or professors

The media rushed to judgment and was guilty of professional malpractice (not legal malpractice, of course). But the real harm was done by the DA, as Will said. He was the one empowered to really screw them and he tried his best, even though the evidence was paper thin. Professors and activists may have said and done the wrong things, but certainly nothing actionable.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 1, 2009 1:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've never understood how electing DAs is a good idea

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Democracy, baby!

It’s like electing judges (which is also pretty common). Having officials in important positions subject to public accountability is a good and bad thing at the same time.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 1, 2009 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you'd love the judicial system in texas then

ohh, John Smith is presiding over our trial… time for a donation

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 1:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

but point being

Paul Konerko is using HGH

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't love it

It’s good and bad.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 1, 2009 1:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

also worth reading

Shysterball on Roberts

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 1, 2009 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

but he was SEEN with KEVIN BROWN five years ago

what more do you want?

they were carrying around giant bags with big HGH labels on them

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good article

Roberts’ credibility is trending downward.

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on May 2, 2009 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kevin Brown did not live under a rat.

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on May 2, 2009 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

David Ortiz could be DONE, though

by BrRoyal on May 1, 2009 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've never been a big believer in defense

Up to this year, I’ve always seen most teams make the routine plays, occasionally make a great one. I’ve watched a lot of guys that every one says are awful and gone, eh they aren’t that bad (like Aviles at SS last year). Then there are guys that people gush about and I watch them flub routine plays sometimes (TPJ). I’ve always felt like it’s worth it to take risks on lesser defenders in favor of offense.

That said, this year is just different. Truly, every “routine” play I still hold my breath with this team. Jacobs is truly a butcher at 1B; I’ve really never seen anything quite like it. And Callaspo is either extremely unlucky, attention-deficit disordered or the worst 2B in baseball. And those are positions I’ve always seen as easy. I can’t imagine that Bloomquist would be worse at 2B than Callaspo, so maybe once we get guys healthy we can make that switch. And the fact that Butler is now our defensive replacement at 1B is funny (not ha-ha; Shealy NOW?!?).

by Big Guy on Apr 30, 2009 10:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

um, Bloomquist at 2nd?

Not the way Bert is swinging the stick.

If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.

by Warden11 on Apr 30, 2009 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bloomquist is a zero at best on defense

and unquestionably worse than that offensively. It would hurt the team for him to be in the lineup anywhere.

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on May 2, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm happy with 6th in the AL

And Butler’s numbers are no surprise. He’s looked good. I mean, his UZR should certainly moderate, but I expect it to stay on the positive side given what I’ve seen from him this year.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Apr 30, 2009 11:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes, the eyes and stats agree so far

Billy has been a revelation at 1B from what was expected.

by AxDxMx on Apr 30, 2009 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good thing they made sure that Gload could still play a solid 1B last year

I mean, you wouldn’t have wanted to waste all that valuable grit time by, you know, giving your then-22-year-old hitting prodigy some experience leading into a season that might actually matter.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

by Sweep_the_Leg on May 1, 2009 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs

I was gonna bitch about it

but I decided to let it go. He was not in shape last year, and was pretty bad. He worked hard this offseason to get where he is, and he has obviously impressed them. I fully expect him to be the regular first baseman going forward, with occasional DH days.

by AxDxMx on May 1, 2009 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looks like Butler didn't need that experience to become pretty good defensively

I say that tongue-in-cheek, of course. But at the same time, it looks like the downside for his defensive development was much.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 1, 2009 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

actually

they had a deal with his family that he had to play 1B this year

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

nice effort cleveland...

thanks for playing!

where tpj happens.

by blue bandwagon on May 1, 2009 12:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I know...

I expected better of Shapiro

(just like every other stathead)

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

who ranks 14th in the AL overall?

where tpj happens.

by blue bandwagon on May 1, 2009 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shapiro and the Indians front office is a very mixed bag

They take statistical analysis seriously, but I don’t think they rely on it as much as the A’s, Red Sox, Rays (and now perhaps the M’s). It’s clear from some of their moves that there’s a strong toolsiness in that front office which often goes directly against statistical leanings.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 1, 2009 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yea...

its a weird baseball culture they have… I think they’re very fundamentally sound, but their decision tree breaks down fast

and defintely not a stat-friendly fan/media base

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Does anybody have a stat-friendly fan/media base?

Probably the A’s. Red Sox fans probably don’t care at all as long as the team is winning. But I think that’s about it. Most fans are traditionalists who don’t know or care much about stats beyond those that are on the back of baseball cards and think everything is “made up.”

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 1, 2009 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hmm

I guess not

though there are gradations of open-mindedness and responsiveness to perceived innovation

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's fun how they three infielders

playing at their second best positions.

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on May 2, 2009 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's early

DeRosa is decent at third. Sizemore and Choo are good at their positions (although Sizemore has a Bernie Williams-esque arm). Cabrera is adequate.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 1, 2009 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

doesn't that sound like last year's royals?

lots of dcent guys adds up to a bad team

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Grady Sizemore = "decent?"

Albert Pujols must be “above average”

Seriously, though, I think Choo is as good or better than either DDJ or Crisp overall (he can’t play center, but he’s a very good hitter).. and I’m a DDJ fan. I know that isn’t a universal opinion. Peralta is a 3 win player despite his defense. V-Mart is back, offensively, and can rest at 1B (where his bat plays) and Shoppach could start for any other team in the division. WEll, he’d be onthe bench with Buck in KC for the best catcher in the world, but you know what I mean.

If Hafner is down for a while (and he’s been hitting), they can bring up LaPorta.

Now, pitching, on the other hand…. It’s basically the mysterious Cliff Lee and a bunch of guys like Kyle Davies — not in pitching style, but in terms fo they could shut down a team one day, and get smoked the next.

I’m not sold on Carmona.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 1, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I agree with all of that

Sizemore is a superstar. Choo is very good and very underrated. He’s not a great player and he’s not great at anyone thing, but good hitting + good fielding = a very good overall player. VMart is a hell of a hitter and there is a nice supporting cast of other position players which leads to little in the way of “holes.” The problem is pitching. The bullpen is ok, but thin and the rotation had question marks going in and so far those questions aren’t resolving themselves in a positive direction for the most part.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 1, 2009 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cf. Tigers, Detroit

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 1, 2009 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

did anybody watch that bulls-celtics game?

this is the only forum i ever post on so i figured i would throw it out there.

where tpj happens.

by blue bandwagon on May 1, 2009 12:10 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

watched the OTs

hinrich nearly blew the game… I seem to remember watching him miss bunnies at KU a lot too

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ku didnt have a good showing in that third OT

never good to get posterized by noah…

where tpj happens.

by blue bandwagon on May 1, 2009 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if the Celts win, Simmons will be insufferable

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 1, 2009 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

though he did say that Rondo's foul was flagrant...

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great ballgame

Noah with the steal and the slam was great!

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton

by CubFreak on May 1, 2009 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very Nice Start

just keep up with the division 6-6 so far against the AL Central

Maybe 82-84 wins will be all thats needed to win the division

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton

by CubFreak on May 1, 2009 12:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Could be

I still think some team is going to break out and have win total in the high-80’s or maybe even low 90’s.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 1, 2009 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

do you think KC pitching staff will lead the pack

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton

by CubFreak on May 1, 2009 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

royals have had tons of great SP

and are 12-10… I can’t see them getting over say 85 wins…

yet

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah but 2 of those loses

Farnworthless!

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton

by CubFreak on May 1, 2009 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

really...

my thinking has shifted to the idea that the more we play the AL central… well, you know, anything is possible. i guess that’s my way of saying i’m not impressed.

where tpj happens.

by blue bandwagon on May 1, 2009 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're not impressed by the Royals pitching so far?

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 1, 2009 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Triple Crown in the bigs means nothing :-)

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton

by CubFreak on May 1, 2009 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

should have clarified... i'm very impressed with the royals pitching (and to an extent the royals)...

not impressed with the al central. therefore, i think 85 wins is possible with just a slight uptick in the offense.

where tpj happens.

by blue bandwagon on May 1, 2009 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Royals might have the best pitching in the AL Central

I think the numbers suggested that as a decent possibility (or even perhaps a likelihood) before the season started. I haven’t seen anything to point in the other direction so far. I just don’t think the hitting will be enough to get the Royals much over .500.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 1, 2009 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know its early, BUT if close, IF

would GMDM get another stick, trading deadline, who and where

FA next year, does KC have any trading chips?

"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy."
- Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, A's & Angels pitcher Don Sutton

by CubFreak on May 1, 2009 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No and no

read the post about our untouchable prospects.

by AxDxMx on May 1, 2009 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

like we needed to read that

this is the team that’s afraid to let Tony Pena, Jr. pass through waiver.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 1, 2009 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

UZR/150 = +44.4!!!!!!!!!111

A couple singles and this guy is above replacement level! Small samples mean everything!

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 1, 2009 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

heh

that Stark article is sort of funny. I mean, not really, but it seems like everyone has finally caught on that trading good prospects for a rental is stooooopid. Unless you get lucky and Manny comes and puts up 3 WAR in half a season (and that is probably generous), you’re probably giving the team one win at most, and giving up years of cheap labor that will enable you to sign free agents in the offseason with the money saved without giving up that young talent. Even Sabean figured it out.

So why the hell is Dayton Moore, who, if he is good at anytyhing, is supposed to value young talent, going to trade one of the Royals few A prospects for a rental of, hell, I don’t even know. Brian Giles?

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 1, 2009 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm confused

Do you think that DM is considering trading a top prospect for a rental?

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 1, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

no, the opposite

I’m saying that no one does that anymore, and Moore has been good about avoidng that anyway

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 1, 2009 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, okay, Milwaukee last season

although it’s not like they got a “maybe” guy in return, and LaPorta wouldn’t have a place to play in Milwaukee.

Hmm, I guess the Dodgers did give up a good catcher for Casey Blake.

I guess I though it didn’t happen anymore.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 1, 2009 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

THOUGHT

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 1, 2009 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, top prospects aren't entirely untouchable

They are just almost completely untouchable.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 1, 2009 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder if its gone too far in that direction

especially with pitching prospects… look at the santana/hughes non-trade

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

melky was the dealbreaker

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 1, 2009 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They both suck. Yay!

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on May 2, 2009 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Could be

Holding onto too many good but not great pitching prospects might not be the best idea. The failure rate of such prospects is quite high. Of course, sometimes you can use one decent position player prospect and a few good but not great pitching prospects to acquire the best pitcher in baseball.

I think when the Royals get closer to serious contention (maybe this coming offseason, or perhaps the next one) Moore should start thinking about trading some of the non-elite pitching prospects for position players. Of course they aren’t going to have real trade value until they’ve done something at a higher minor league level. But I don’t know that the Royals need to keep all of them. But in the short-term it wouldn’t make sense to trade any of them unless they can be traded for a position player prospect of equal or greater value.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 1, 2009 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

we'll see

I’ve totally lost a read on Moore. I have no idea what he’ll do next…

Sheehan, I believe it was, said something earlier this season about young pitchers versus young hitters thatreally made sense to me: in most cases, these generic “good” level pitching prospects will be as good or possibly beter at 22 than at 25 or 26… you might as well just get the value out of them when you can

I guess what I’m trying to say is, the royals have the hochevar/butler strategy backwards

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Moore's trying hard to win now, without hurting the team's chances in the future

If the Royals get to .500 or a little above it, then I think that Moore will conclude that the Royals are on the doorstep and he might be more willing to go even harder for a win-now strategy which might include trading some prospects.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 1, 2009 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

is teahen a FA or arb this off-season?

it really seems like the roster, especially the position players, are really locked up for the next few years

by royalsreview on May 1, 2009 1:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I believe the Royals have Teahen for two more years after this one

If he was a super-two last year, then 2009 was his second of four arbitration years.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 1, 2009 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very true

The good thing about Moore’s ill-advised (IMO) win-now strategy is that it hasn’t been an all-out win-now strategy. He hasn’t been willing to sell off important parts of the Royals future for immediate or short-term gain. He’s kept the good prospects in a lock box.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 1, 2009 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I suspect

there’s some pressure being applied to him (DM) by Glass to “win now” or at least make a good looking effort. However, I think that even Glass is bought in enough to agree with DM to keep the prospects instead of throwing everything overboard for this year’s finish.

Royals baseball. Where .260 would be orgasmic.

The General Theory of Royaltivity

by kabrink on May 1, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I mentioned this in the fanshot

If the A’s fall out of contention, what would it take to get half a season of Matt Holliday?

by BrRoyal on May 1, 2009 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A lot

Not sure how much. At least two top 10 prospects, including one top 5.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 1, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the defense at 2b in the AL central is especially stellar this year (sarcastic font)

all hail placido palanco!

where tpj happens.

by blue bandwagon on May 1, 2009 12:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

um, polanco is old, but he has been one of the better defensive 2Bs out there

from 2005-2008 as I mention in passing here, he’s been about as valuable as Manny Ramirez, and Manny had to have a MONSTER year in 2008 to catch up.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 1, 2009 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i was sayin palanco kicks everyone's ass...

even the great BERT!

where tpj happens.

by blue bandwagon on May 1, 2009 2:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

by devil_fingers on May 1, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

And to the “Mora and Huff will be gone,” thing, Mora won’t be “that” hard to replace anyway. His 2004-05 peak is kaput. Huff is still pretty good, but last year was fluky good.

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on May 2, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs