An optimist's perspective on yesterday's game

by cmkeller on Apr 8, 2009 11:11 AM EDT Comment 27 comments

OK, I'm no happier with yesterday's blown game, with Hillman, with Farnsworth, maybe with Moore (remember, he's also responsible for Meche, so he might deserve more credit for yesterday's game than blame). But here's a way to look at things to cheer us up:

After yesterday, the Royals have the same record as the Yankees, and the White Sox have the same record as the Orioles.

If we can say that again at the end of the season, I think we'll all be a bunch of happy campers.

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Optimism is today's starting pitcher.

So today I’m optimistic. Not so much 40% of the time.

by djk royal on Apr 8, 2009 11:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Very pissed

about yesterday, and today is a crapshoot given that Greinke has been horrible in Chicago. My hope is that Hillman learns from his horrible decision (he probably won’t) and the Royals can hit better with men on base.

It’s really irritating, though, b/c if Greinke has another bad day, then you’re pinning your hopes on Davies to salvage the final game and the prospect of two losses to start out the homestand. We could really get off to a horrible start if we’re not careful.

Just a lost opportunity…

I hereby resign from this post.

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Apr 8, 2009 11:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good things that happened

-We looked more patient at the plate. Taking pitches, drawing walks, not swinging at terrible pitches. Even Aviles and Guillen drew walks.

-Teahen’s hot hitting continued into opening day. He had a nice double on an outside pitch taking it the other way (still not pulling the ball, but hey, its one game and he did get a double). Got on base three times.

-Gordon hit an absolute bomb.

-Meche was sensational. I dissed his signing at the time, but he has been worth every penny and more. Looks like a real stud and an elite pitcher.

-DJ had some nifty defense. Having him and Coco out there should be a real plus.

-Teahen has some minor miscues but nothing major. No one hurt themselves.

-Its only one game.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 8, 2009 11:44 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Agreed on all points

I would add:

-The fact that Gordon’s bomb was to (almost) dead center, and off of a lefty. Two things that I don’t recall seeing much of last year.

-I really think that Teahen will be a competent 2B, although probably never above-average. As long as his bat stays strong, then he’ll definitely be an overall asset at the position.

-It’s only one game, but Seitzer may indeed be The Bat Whisperer. Your mention of improved plate discipline was definitely noticeable yesterday, and I think Seitzer is the best explanation for it. Let’s hope it continues.

There was definitely a lot to like about the overall performance yesterday. I’m still optimistic about the team as a whole, but my confidence in Hillman has been shaken. Hopefully, the dramatic failure that resulted from his decision yesterday will cause him to lose whatever misplaced confidence he had in Farnsworth. Rather than continuing to trot him out there several more times when he shouldn’t be, and thereby potentially costing the Royals a few more games. Maybe the trauma of yesterday will encourage Hillman to make a change in his thinking regarding Farnsworth earlier than he would have otherwise.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

by Sweep_the_Leg on Apr 8, 2009 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

i read something yesterday...

that i dont think i’ve seen on this site before. We’ve all just kind of assumed Teahens bat would be above average for a 2b (me included), but the last two years, he’s been a below average hitter for 2b. So, not only will he have to play decent defense at 2b, he’ll need to improve his hitting to be an asset

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Apr 8, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

in 2008, that's true

but in 2007, he did hit slightly better than an AL second baseman. Now, i don’t even like using league positional offensive splits to determine a players’ worthiness to play there, and much less so when it’s in OPS, but for the record, in 2007 AL second basemen hit .284/.339/.416, while in 2007 Teahen hit .285/353/.410.

But if his glove is -15 runs, even being a bit above average at 2B isn’t really enough. Assuming average defense, with the positional adjustments from Tango that I (but not everyone) like, he needs to be at least -2.5 runs per 600 PAs, 700 PAs (whatever your “proration” standard is). He’s been that good in 2006, obviously, in 2007, but not in 2008. If you look at my WAR post, , CHONE has him at +4.9, ZiPS at +6.5, and PECOTA at -0.5. So those are all “good enough” depending on how good/bad his defense is. Average them them all, and you get +3.6, which means he’s need to be no worse than around -6/150 games defensively at 2B to be a league average player.

It’s related to the idea that there are no replacement level hitters or fielders, only replacment level players…

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Apr 8, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Long term, he needs to be only slightly below average defensively at 2B

but with the current roster, he can be well below average with the glove and put up his 2008 offensive numbers and still probably be the Royals best option at 2B.

These are the sacrifices you have to make when you pay a below average RF $13 M a year.

by Top Ramen on Apr 8, 2009 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, you know me

check out the projections post I did — TEahen is the best option in right, and Callaspo is the best option at second, at least according to those numbers.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Apr 8, 2009 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yea, I hope we give up on the Farnsy experiment early

If nothing else, maybe this speeds up the learning curve for Trey on how utterly mediocre Farnsy really is.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 8, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If the latest article on Teahen was any indication

I wouldn’t wait on him to try to pull any pitches. He said that Seitzer had him go back to his original “hit it the opposite way” approach.

by Top Ramen on Apr 8, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well I look forward to him hitting

.280/.350/.410

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 8, 2009 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Better that than a bunch of weak grounders to second from attempst to pull

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Apr 8, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To be fair

the approach is “drive the ball the opposite way”. That’s different than his original approach, which was slap it the opposite way.

When Teahen had his stretch in what, 2006, he was doing exactly this. The last two years he’s been over-pulling the ball in search of “power” but has done nothing to increase production. I’d rather have a guy who drives the ball to all fields and hits 15 hrs run than one who pulls the ball to the first basemen 80% of the time and hits 15 hrs. They should put him in the 2 spot and tell him to get on base hitting it wherever it works.

by Big Guy on Apr 8, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To add to this

Telling a player to try and take the pitch right back up the middle, which is probably more like what Seitzer is telling some of these guys, doesn’t mean he won’t ever pull the ball. Trying to hit the ball right back up the middle will help you square up the pitch and keep a good balance with your swing. Trying to go opposite field will lead to a “slapping” approach and that is why most batting coaches will tell you to try and take it to center. It is easier to have a more consistent swing when using this approach than it is to try and pull the ball every time. There is definitely more room for error as well.

Just my two cents from years of playing this great game!

FKA "MileHighKCfan"

by JSouth on Apr 8, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Have Always

Advocated hitting the ball where it is pitched. Trying to pull outside pitches is pointless, and it seems to result in weak grounders most of the time. Teahen has enough power to hit the ball out to any field, and if a player starts punishing pitchers who pitch him away he’ll start seeing more pitches to pull.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Apr 8, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agree, I'd rather see him go back to what worked

than see him continue to fail at the “pull-everything!!!” approach

by Top Ramen on Apr 8, 2009 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Todays Matchup

PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Jose Guillen 15 14 3 1 0 0 1 0 3 .214 .200 .286 .486
David DeJesus 14 12 5 1 0 1 2 1 3 .417 .500 .750 1.250
Mark Teahen 12 12 2 0 0 1 2 0 5 .167 .167 .417 .584
Alex Gordon 10 10 3 1 0 1 2 0 1 .300 .300 .700 1.000
Billy Butler 7 7 2 0 0 0 3 0 0 .286 .286 .286 .572
Mike Aviles 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .000 .167 .000 .167
John Buck 6 6 1 0 0 1 2 0 2 .167 .167 .667 .834
Miguel Olivo 6 6 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 .333 .333 .667 1.000
Tony Pena 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 .400 .400 .400 .800
Alberto Callaspo 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 .333 .333 .667 1.000
Mike Jacobs 0 AB’s The Spork 0 Ab’s

Today might be a good day to DH one of the catchers instead of Billy and play Callaspo instead of Teahen.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Apr 8, 2009 11:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And tell Farnsworth the game is at Wrigley

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Apr 8, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 4 recs

Kinda Like This

Guy?

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Apr 8, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

I guess one “positive” about moving opening day back is that we don’t have an extra full day to do nothing but discuss yesterday’s disaster.

New day – game tonight – moving on………..

Weaseling out of things is important to learn. It's what separates us from the animals! Except the weasel! - Homer Simpson

by aHorseWithNoName on Apr 8, 2009 12:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Things like yesterday happen

It happened to Jim Leyland also, almost the exact scenario. SP pitched an absolute GEM and he went with option # 3 out of the pen as opposed to option 1 or 2, and stuck with that option even after he got into trouble.

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Apr 8, 2009 12:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs