Pythagoras Is a Dirty Liar: Royals & Twins Now Tied at 12-11

by Freneau on May 1, 2009 10:58 PM EDT in Kansas City Royals News

A winnable game, but the Royals didn't win.

The Twins have been outscored by 21 runs this season. The Royals have outscored their opponents by 15 runs. Nevertheless, here we are: in the only standings that count (tempted to say matter, but the pythag #s do matter) both teams are 12-11.

The Royals are now 0-2 in games in which they score 5 runs. Odd. They're 1-1 in games when they've score 6, if you're curious.
The Royals are now 0-5 in games started by Sidney Ponson, and unfortunately, this loss is more on him than some of the previous ones had been. In 4.1 IP, Ponson allowed seven runs, thanks to two homers and five other hits allowed. He walked one and struck out one, so perhaps he was also a little bit unlucky. Still, here we are, and his ERA is now at 7.16. This is the Ponson world that we've chosen to live in: he's actually done better than anyone expected, and yet, at the end of the day, he's still posting bad numbers.
Because Ponson didn't last long, the Royals burned one of their three good relievers (Tejeda) early in the game.
Who knew we'd wake up on May 1st and we'd all be concerned about whether or not Jamey Wright was gonna be available to pitch that night? Another non-lesson in bullpen construction: Wright is less famous and less rich than Ron Mahay, Kyle Farnsworth and Ho-Ram, yet, at the moment, he's the guy you want out there. Of course, Dayton's response will undoubtedly to extend him for the next two seasons, so will have him around long enough to turn back into a pumpkin... On this topic... can you imagine what the bullpen would look like if the Royals hadn't signed Juan Cruz?
Two hits tonight for DDJ.
Callaspo for MVP.
Oh, Guillen also had a good night... something I always seem to overlook when it happens every five days or so.
The offense has been clicking for the last three games, but tonight was a vintage Royals performance from the Ken Harvey era: no walks, three doubles, seven singles. Ok, not far, the Ken Harvey era would have had two doubles, tops.
Mike Jacobs is in a 3-36 slump, but he was hitting .400/.410/1.500 (approx) when the slump started so know one has noticed except devil fingers.

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by wildthang on May 1, 2009 11:02 PM EDT reply actions

good headline

by wildthang on May 1, 2009 11:02 PM EDT reply actions

Mr. Hypotenuse is scolding you for defaming the name of Pythagoras like that....

after all, he owes all his fame to him!

by Fernando Vina School of Linguistics on May 1, 2009 11:02 PM EDT reply actions

So does Hochevar start on May 6?

This is the Ponson world that we’ve chosen to live in: he’s actually done better than anyone expected, and yet, at the end of the day, he’s still posting bad numbers.

This pretty much sums up the Sidney Ponson era.

The offense has been clicking for the last three games, but tonight was a vintage Royals performance from the Ken Harvey era

Unlike the three wins against Toronto, the Royals faced a RHP tonight. Without Gordon, this team really faces an uphill battle against right-handed pitching of even moderate quality (and Slowey is a quality pitcher).

by Gopherballs on May 1, 2009 11:45 PM EDT reply actions

good news I guess given that RHPs are rare

by Freneau on May 1, 2009 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, they DID get to Slowey (a quality pitcher as you noted) for 5 runs in 5 innings

What more do you want? Considering they scored a whopping total of 4 runs in their 25 previous innings against Slowey, I’ll take it as a big plus.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

by Sweep_the_Leg on May 1, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

when is the magical Hochevar arb-clock-manipulation date?

is it for sure the 6th?

by Freneau on May 1, 2009 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Rany says May 23 maybe

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on May 1, 2009 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions

If the idea is that Hochevar finishes the year with less than 2 full years of service time

in order to postpone free agency one year, the magic date is May 6 (plus or minus a day) based on Cot’s serice time number. Assuming Cot’s is correct, Hochevar would finish the season with 1 year, 171 days in service time, where 172 days are needed to equal one season.

by Gopherballs on May 2, 2009 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions

why do I feel slightly dirty trying to figure this out?

by Freneau on May 2, 2009 1:59 AM EDT up reply actions

I have no idea

I was just listening to the ZitCast

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on May 2, 2009 2:08 AM EDT up reply actions

also

more important, Toronto’s lefties weren’t very good pitchers (Purcey might be down the road). Regressing players to their expected splits, only Butler, Guillen, and maybe Aviles are above-average hitters vs. LHP, while vs. RHP Teahen, DDJ, and Jacobs are above average.

Given the larger splits of LH hitters on average, moreover, given LHP and RHP of equal value, the Royals would be at a greater disadvantage against the LHP.

But that’s just what I think it likely to happen… who knows what actually will.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on May 2, 2009 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Olivo, Buck, Crisp, Callaspo, Bloomquist

The other regulars are all better against LHP, with Olivo and Bloomquist turning into NL pitchers with the bat against RHP. Against LHP, the Royals can put together a lineup with seven hitters who hit LHP well plus DDJ and Teahen who are not disasters against LHP (Jacobs really should sit). Against RHP, however, only DDJ, Teahen, and Jacobs hit RHP well, Crisp and maybe Callaspo are a little below average, but the last four lineup spots are filled players who at best struggle against RHP (Butler, Guillen, Aviles, Buck, Olivo, or Bloomquist). Maier does not hit pitchers of either persuasion.

by Gopherballs on May 2, 2009 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions

I guess it depends on whether you think career splits hold

or if players are more likely (taken as a group) regress back closer to league average. Andy Dolphin’s chapter in the book says RH hitters a platoon splits should be averaged by their career PAs vs. LHP vs. ~2,000 PAs of league average, 1,000 for lefties. I did a crude version of it in a stuff a bit here for some players in general (Gordon and Olivo included), and then used the same stuff here for most of the other Royals, in case you missed it.

It will be interesting to see how it turns out.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on May 2, 2009 2:12 AM EDT up reply actions

while Guillen had a massive split last season

over his career, his split is actually lower that recent league average

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on May 2, 2009 2:15 AM EDT up reply actions

I am not sure I would compare current decline period Guillen with career average Guillen

by Gopherballs on May 2, 2009 2:33 AM EDT up reply actions

true enough

I read Dan Fox’s study a while back, and does seem that RHH in that study declined fastyer against LHH, but even Fox admitted that the study was of long careers and thus suffered from selective sampling issues.

Guillen’s monster split only really happened last season.

Guillen’s main problem, though, isn’t that he’s bad against RHP, it’s just that he isn’t a good hitter anymore. When Gordon gets back, my preferred lineup (which will never happen) is Teahen starting every day in RF, with Guillen and Jacobs platooning.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on May 2, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Royals vs. RHP

Without Gordon, this team really faces an uphill battle against right-handed pitching of even moderate quality (and Slowey is a quality pitcher).

Yeah, as long as Crisp, Teahen, DeJesus, Jacobs, and Callaspo are out of the lineup.

And I’m not quite sure how Friday’s game against Slowey supports your point.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on May 2, 2009 3:44 AM EDT up reply actions

You should re-read Will's passage that I quoted

The Royals scored 5 runs, but as Will noted, the offense was not clicking as it had against the LHP earlier in the week. The “no walks, three doubles, seven singles” yet five runs is the equivalent of the starter who gives up a bunch of line drives, walks, and extra base hit without any strikeouts yet still gives up only a run or two. You are happy with the end result for that game, but are obviously concerned going forward because that type of performance is not going to repeat that result too often.

The point is that the Royals can put a lineup together of almost all right-handed hitters who can hit LHP, but against RHP without Gordon, the lineup of three left-handed bats, two switch-hitters (who do not hit as well left-handed), and four right-handed bats (who are not very good to begin with and struggle against RHP) faces an uphill battle.

Or you can just look at the season splits:

Royals 2009 v. RHP: .238/.314/.410 .724 OPS

Royals 2009 v. LHP: .267/.348/.447 .795 OPS

by Gopherballs on May 2, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions

I wish I could look at those numbers before the TOronto series

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on May 2, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions

The problem tonight was Ponson

His performance tonight was more like one would a expect of a #5 starter that was signed off the street in ST. Just bad timing by the offense—they needed to take advantage of the two quality starts they got previously from Ponson. Instead, they waited until he had a bad night to put any runs on the board.

The only major concern I continue to have offensively is Olivo. I mean, my god, is there any way that man should be allowed to step into a MLB batter’s box any longer? Not only is every at bat just brutally hacktastic, he doesn’t seem to recognize that there might be a problem with his approach. I mean, has he taken a single pitch for a called strike this year? Can they fit him with some sort of special harness or straightjacket that immobilizes his arms?

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

by Sweep_the_Leg on May 2, 2009 12:01 AM EDT reply actions

olivo cant afford to take any pitches

because once he gets down 2 strikes, it’s over
at least when he’s hackng there is a chance it gets put in play, albeit a slim chance

realistically speaking

by slayor on May 2, 2009 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions

reminds me of berroa when i watch him..

just like you said.. 2 strikes.. might as well be 3

Bloomquist. God? Or just an illusion? You be the judge.

by focs on May 2, 2009 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Agreed. x1,000

Step 1: Walk to box

Step 2: swing after pitcher moves arm

If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.

by Warden11 on May 2, 2009 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Yes, he has

and they are usually right down the middle.

by AxDxMx on May 2, 2009 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions

i just went on fangraphs to see who the most hacktastic guy in the game is...

David Ortiz is near the top

by Freneau on May 2, 2009 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions

so you're saying Olivo is better than David Ortiz

is all makes sense now

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on May 2, 2009 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions

the good news...

the royals are 12-6 when ponson DOESN’T start! i always knew i was a stat-head.

where tpj happens.

by blue bandwagon on May 2, 2009 2:44 AM EDT reply actions

shit..i wonder what happens in games that ponson doesnt start and trey/farnsworth dont blow at the end

Fire Hillman

by billybeingbilly on May 2, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Hochevar NOW

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on May 2, 2009 3:51 AM EDT reply actions

gotta game the service time on a potential #3 starter

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on May 2, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Well,

the hope’s there that he could more, I guess. No matter how unfounded that might be. Of course, the silly thing is, the Royals seem poised to hang in the AL Central this year, and there’s little doubt that Hochevar would be better than Ponson.

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on May 2, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions

remember

games aren’t as important this early in the year.

Royals baseball. Where .260 would be orgasmic.

The General Theory of Royaltivity

by kabrink on May 2, 2009 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions

GAAAAAAAAAHRHRHRHHRGREAGaergasdadffdasfad

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on May 2, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions

gesundheit!

Royals baseball. Where .260 would be orgasmic.

The General Theory of Royaltivity

by kabrink on May 2, 2009 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Thank you.

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on May 3, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions

how about pitcher service time (Hochevar) is more important than hitter service time

(Butler, Gordon)

Dayton Moore: Master of Roster Construction

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on May 2, 2009 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Aren't you being a little hasty

in lavishing such high praise on him?

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on May 3, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions

great, single me out on Jacobs

although given that Butler currently has a .341 wOBA and Jacobs a .324, I eagerly await the spat of "call up Shealy/Kila/Lubanski to replace Jacobs now!’ posts.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on May 2, 2009 12:36 PM EDT reply actions

and while we're at it

I’m tired of all the favoritism around here. Alex Gordon’s wOBA has been at .261 for a couple of weeks, and no one has said anything about that slump

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on May 2, 2009 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions