Kansas City Royals Transaction Roundup: Soria to DL, Ponson to the Bullpen, Hochevar to the Rescue
Late last night, the Royals announced that Joakim Soria was headed to the retroactive DL (you actually need a time machine to do this, but luckily Glass owns one, which has been key in maintaining Wal-Mart's labor standards) with Luke Hochevar coming up to take the available roster spot. In an unexpected twist, Sidney Ponson will shift to the bullpen.
Let's take a look at these moves individually, which on the whole represent a mix of the obvious and the curious:
Move One: Soria to the DL
If you buy into the Closer Myth, then this is the scariest move of all, sure tp produce a crushing ninth-inning loss within 48 hours, which will, in turn, send the Royals on a huge demoralization-fueled losing streak. I don't believe in that brand of thinking, though I do agree that a healthy Soria is not only the team's best reliever, but also one of the very best in the game. The problem is that he isn't healthy and that he's barely been around all season. Through the team's first seven games he appeared in four games, but since then, he's only thrown 4.2 innings, good for a total of 8.2 on the season. Even a healthy closer is only vaguely around most of the time and for all intents and purposes, the Royals have been without Soria for a month. Aside from a tense extra-innings appearance in Minnesota, Soria hasn't appeared in a really tough game anytime recently, and in that game, he faced one batter with the game tied, then got the save/win with a three run lead.
The larger concern, at least as I read it, is that no one quite knows what is wrong. He's on the DL with shoulder soreness with an official goal of rest, but he's rested before, to an extent, and still felt pain.
Sitting here, in my proverbial mother's basement, it's impossible to speculate about how this has been handled -- there's been rumblings of a disconnect between Soria and the team's staff -- or what the future holds. All that really matters, as a final takeaway here, is that this isn't a generic trip to the DL, where we have a clear understanding of how long he'll be out. He didn't tweak his hamstring or break a finger, for example.
Some have concluded that this should put the starter/closer controversy to rest, though considering that Soria is under team control for something like the next hundred years, I'm not sure how this settles much long-term. From where I sit, we should also take the last month as evidence for just how unimportant closers end up being.
Move Two: Hochevar to the Rotation
What Soria's injured allowed was for the Royals and their public leadership team/quote givers of Moore and Hillman to do the easy thing and slot Hochevar into the rotation, without having to lie about why this didn't happen from the beginning. As devoted men of faith, I'd hate to see that happen, especially for Moore, a man for whom, we all know, is deeply concerned with lies in print.
All along, this was a simple money-saving gesture, a gambit to game Hochevar's service time clock so that he avoided arbitration for a year longer, or, at the very least, Super Two status. Sometimes these moves work in spades, sometimes they become irrelevant due to a player's poor performance or injury, so who knows. Personally, I think this type of move makes more sense for position players, who remain easier to project and who tend to steadily get better in a more linear way than pitchers. Of course, the Royals have displayed this kind of overt gaming only with a pitcher, while doing the exact opposite with Butler and Gordon, but oh well. Let's just hope the Royals don't lose the division by a game.
Getting back to the rotation, it's interesting to note how quickly the Royals reshuffled their staff. It took 32 games for the Royals to replace 40% of their rotation, with the hated Ramirez-Ponson duo to be replaced by Bannister and Hochevar. Hochevar's the best pitcher of the lot, or at least should be, with the reason why he's the last to join the party described above. Still, it remains murky just how much of an upgrade he'll be. One imperfect way of looking at it, is that PECOTA pegs Hochevar to post a 4.95 ERA, while Ponson and Ho-Ram were at 5.36 & 5.37 respectively.As the team's only really ready pitching prospect, Hochevar's ability and impact has probablybe over-stated a bit by fans. He'll make the staff better, no question, but he's not the next Greinke. In part, Hochevar's value may be more a secondary one: if he's a tick better than Ponson or Ho-Ram, he may be able to pitch that extra inning that they weren't, thus making the next two games easier for the bullpen.
(I do think that Hochevar could have one start a month that's torpedoed by the Royals' infield defense. Hopefully I'm wrong.)
The interesting thing here is perhaps the re-emergence of Brian Bannister as part of the team's plans. Perhaps, for the next few years, this is just how it's going to be: Davies and Banny and probably Luke will have good and bad stretches, and we'll devote a lot of energy to ranking them, writing about them, wonderinng why the struggling one's (at that moment) have lost it, etc. Stay tuned, I guess.
Move Three: Ponson to the Bullpen
This one caught me off-guard and still doesn't fully make sense. It's not a terrible move, but as with the Hochevar moves, it's likely heavily influenced by non-directly-baseball issues, a way of stashing Ponson on the big league roster so that the Royals can't lose him. Ponson has only appeared as a RP fifteen times in what has been a long career, and the bulk of those were back in 1998.
Treyball has described him as a possible "ground-ball guy" out of the 'pen, which is actually accurate, at least compared to similar options like Mahay, Wright, Farnsy, Tejeda, etc: Ponson's consistently posted GB%s around 50%. Sure, imagning a scenario in which Treyball (does a man who calls Soria "Jack" really deserve to be called by his name?) brings in Ponson with runners on first and third specifically to get a double play sounds horrifying to me, and probably you, but there is some logic to it.
In thinking about the post-Soria bullpen now, what jumps out is what an odd mix it is: three failed starters (Ho-Ram, Tejeda, Ponson) who are probably in some vague long-man/low-leverage role,a journeyman failed starter who has been elevated to greater prominence (Wright), a shiny setup man who can't get guys out despite his paycheck (Farnsworth), another shiny setup man who may or may not be the lefty-specialist who also may be toast (Mahay) and one guy who is just a classic, legitimately good reliever (Cruz).
Royals Bullpen (non-Soria) Leverage Ranks, 2009:
| Cruz | 1st |
| Mahay | 2nd |
| Wright | 3rd |
| Farnsworth | 4th |
| Tejeda | 5th |
| Ho-Ram | 6th |
If the rules of the game were changed, and baseball games were played in 11 innings, the Royals would be in great shape with all those long-men. Considering however that Ponson really won't pitch that much (or if he will, it'll be at the expense of Tejeda or Ho-Ram) it's hard to envision how anything is served by having all three of them around, especially in a rotation with Zack Greinke pitching every five days. So if you're looking for the patented RR complaint or dose of negativity it is this: I'd rather have an extra position player the failed starter based bullpen.
This is where the Farnsworth, Ho-Ram and Ponson signings continue to hurt the Royals, because it isn't just about money, it's about roster space. We all know that the Royals, short of just outrighting one of those guys, are stuck with all three. So that means we're talking about Tejeda versus an extra bat. He's the only guy who can be demoted or released realistically,, absent another "injury" like Waechter's, other than Ponson, and the reason why I'm writing this is that Ponson is still around.
If you want to think about it another way, as yourself this question: is there any real difference between Ponson, Ho-Ram, Tejeda and current darling Jamey Wright? They're all just guys. (As I say now about Treyball, "he's just a guy.") They're guys who you probably don't want starting too much, and who are decent options out of the 'pen. At any given moment, two will probably be a little hot, in terms of their performance, two cold. They have value to a team, but only to a point: I can see a real benefit to having two of these guys around, especially if one of them catches fire as a reliever. Maybe three, maybe, if you don't trust your rotation. But four?!?!?!? That's a huge chunk of the roster when they're all in the bullpen. Add in the fact that you have another guy in Farnsworth who you pretty much can't use, and it creates a problem.
Given how much Hillman has displayed a proclivity to pinch-hit in the late innings, I think I'd prefer the extra position player. The man has been pinch-hitting Willie Bloomquist for goodness sakes! If he's going to do that, I'd rather it be Ryan Shealy or John Buck/Olivo (with more use of them thanks to a third catcher and/or more positional flexibility) than Bloomy. I'd rather give Hillman one more toy to PH or PR or defensive sub with than carry the fourth member of the Ho-Ram/Ponson/Tejeda/Farnsworth quartet of emergency low-leverage guys who essentially never appear at moments that matter.
Regarding swing-men/long-men/fifth starter types, the Royals certainly have depth, which is a good thing. On the Major League roster however, depth one place usually means you're shallow somewhere else. The Royals currently have a bullpen that's built for an eleven run game, but ill-equiped to handle a close game in the sixth inning. Assuming Cruz becomes the magical closer who we'll only see in the 9th with a 1-3 run lead, then suddenly the Ron Mahay/Jamey Wright duo becomes the key to the whole bullpen.
3 recs |
59 comments
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Comments
J. R. House Now!
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 11, 2009 6:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
it amazes me too
but I’ve come to the point where the weird quirks of this roster have made me wish for a 3rd catcher
by royalsreview on May 11, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm actually serious
but not as a catcher, but as a platoon partner for Jacobs.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 11, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
House can hit question mark?
He’d make more sense than another long man, for sure. Though I think it’s possible that pigeonholing Tejeda as nothing but a once and future long man is erroneous. He was actually pretty darn good last year, leverage aside.
"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"
by NHZ on May 11, 2009 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
on tejeda
I think it’s possible that pigeonholing Tejeda as nothing but a once and future long man is erroneous.
I agree a little, but in terms of how the team views him… I think the Ponson/Ho-Ram/Wright/weachter moves, as well as how he’s been used, show that this is how they see him
by royalsreview on May 11, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nothing against Tejeda
I think he could be another Cruz actually (lots of Ks, will always have issues with walks).
Shealy, House, six of one…. PECOTA hates both of them. Then agian, that same system thought Matt Wieters was the 5th best hitter in baseball last season, so…
I did the calcs last week. I averaged the big three (maybe Oliver was in there, too… it’s better than people think, just the numbers are park neutral). Neither House nor Shealy is a good hitter according the averages (project about as well as JoGui). However, over the rest of the season, using one of them over Buck or Olivo as the platoon guy means about 3-4 extra runs. Maybe more like 6-7 over Jacobs.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 11, 2009 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
is there anybody else who might make sense?
(for this completely unlikely move/scenario that will never happen)
by royalsreview on May 11, 2009 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shealy, House, maybe Brayan Pena…
do you mean currentlly in the Royals organization? And for the platoon partner?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 11, 2009 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hoagie is the perfect platoon partner for Jacobs with Teahen going back to RF when Gordon returns.
Not that it would happen.
by Steve Hovley on May 12, 2009 7:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW
ZIPS is pretty high on House
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on May 12, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yup
The House Always Wins
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 12, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Was that after the first month of the season
or before?
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on May 12, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Before
I haven’t looked at the in-season projections.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on May 12, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
House doesn't have an updated projection
only players with >40 MLB PAs got the updated tool. House’s still projects for a .343 wOBA from ZiPs.
CHONE has him at .336, Oliver at .342
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 12, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
one nice thing about the Hochevar call-up
it would have been really easy just to wait for Ponson get rocked a couple times as a “justification” for calling up Hochevar. Instead of waiting around, Moore is proactively going with the guy he thinks (and I agree) gives the Royals a better shot of winning games based on upside, rather than waiting for Ponson to fail first.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 11, 2009 7:05 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
I think this is an excellent point.
If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.
by Warden11 on May 11, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
or that he's currently riding he hot hand with Banny
by royalsreview on May 11, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think keeping Ponson
in the pen squarely points to one thing.
They aren’t confident that Davies has turned the corner, but they are going to give him more time to prove that he has.
I think if Davies were pitching better than he has to this point, HELL, I think if Davies were pitching as good as Ponson has so far, then Ponson would be looking for work at this point.
BOOM! ROASTED!
by GoBabies!! on May 11, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think it points squarely to one thing
which is, if somebody gets hurt, the royals have NO starting pitch depth without ponson. we’re looking at duckworth in the rotation, and if he were to god forbid go down, then we would really be in dire straights. i don’t think this really says anything about anybody, other than they view ponson as valuable depth and they’re not willing to part with him just yet. it’s a long season
realistically speaking
by slayor on May 11, 2009 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thnk they have plenty of depth, just not much of it is terribly exciting
i view horam/banny/ponson as pretty interchangable, and i’m not sure ducky or tejeda would be markedly worse
by royalsreview on May 11, 2009 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
tejeda to the rotation is not something they want to do
i think they’ve made this pretty evident, and ho-ram is a batting practice machine, at least ponson can give you innings
realistically speaking
by slayor on May 11, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think KC has
far more SP depth than most teams. Take a look around at the rotations in the league. KC’s is far deeper than most teams.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on May 11, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lenny DiNardo isn't a terrible option
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on May 12, 2009 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or Colon...or maybe even Chen (at least for a spot start or two)
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on May 12, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ponson is a nice insurance policy to have
Remember Brian Bannister got off to a hot start last year 3-0 0.86 ERA thru 3 starts. Kyle is very very inconsistent and Luke is still a unknown commodity.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on May 11, 2009 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'd forgotten that Duckie is getting screwed AGAIN
urge to kill rising
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 11, 2009 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
(insert post about my irrational hate for Duckworth)
by AxDxMx on May 12, 2009 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
C'mon

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 12, 2009 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Banny's better than Ponson anyway
"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"
by NHZ on May 12, 2009 3:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think that's up for debate
i know it doesn’t take a whole lot to be “better than Ponson”, but Banny has had some long stretches of being very underwhelming in his recent past. i hope Banny can keep up his good pitching (and i think he will), i’m just saying it’s no sure thing.
by benfunke on May 12, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting observation on the bullpen
But you’re forgetting that Farnsworth and Cruz are also failed starters, albeit briefly. Moreover, they were both failed starters for the Cubs.
Mahay’s the only thoroughbred reliever in the bunch.
Waiting for April.
by DC Royal on May 11, 2009 7:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
well that's true for most relievers...
I guess its a question of time, both time at starter and how long ago they were flipped
farnsworth has not really been a starter since 1999, for example
by royalsreview on May 11, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In unrelated news...
Jimmy Gobble, now pitching for the Chicago White Sox. Just another in a long line of failed Royals relievers on the Sox.
by Bart41 on May 11, 2009 8:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
also...
good to see Hillman isn’t the only manager who doesn’t have a grip on the obvious. Guillen’s letting Gobbler face righties. Didn’t quite work out for him.
by Bart41 on May 11, 2009 9:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So how much do you earn
for one day on an MLB roster?
The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.
by kcbottom9th on May 11, 2009 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
min/162
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on May 11, 2009 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
$2469
Not bad
The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.
by kcbottom9th on May 12, 2009 7:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
shouldnt it be minimum/181 or whatever?
Fire Hillman
by billybeingbilly on May 12, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hillman said on XM
this morning that we are going to close by committe. Buck thought this was a wonderful idea. How about you guys? Also I found it interesting that Trey flew back to Texas and was going to fly back to Calf. early Tues morning.
by gordonrules on May 12, 2009 12:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i have no problem with it in principle
but I have no idea what it actually means in hillman’s head
by royalsreview on May 12, 2009 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Close by Comedy
First.
The General Theory of Royaltivity
by kabrink on May 12, 2009 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what else could "flying back to Texas" actually mean?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 12, 2009 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't mind
I think the 9th is overrated anyway. I’d rather have Cruz pitching in the highest leverage situations.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on May 12, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
right
I think, in hillman’s mind, when he says “closer by committee” it means, “I will make Cruz the traditional closer until he fails”
by royalsreview on May 12, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
what is the "failure line" set at?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 12, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, if one applies the Farnsworth Corollary for Royals' bullpen roles...
I’d say three blatantly blown games.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on May 12, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not sure
but I’m certain that its illogical, inconsistent, and irrespective of leverage and context
by royalsreview on May 12, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
to an extent piggybacking on posts above
i think there are two main reasons to shift Ponson to the pen (instead of releasing/attempting to send him to Omaha):
1. they don’t trust any of the three back end starters, including Hochevar. Davies has been inconsistent, Banny is a question mark, and they must have seen something wrong with Hochevar. so, i could see them keeping Ponson around at least until they’re comfortable that none of these three are going to fail as a long term starters.
2. pitching is the currency of baseball (just kidding…although, if GMDM traded one of the Low-Leverage Four, wouldn’t that go down as a pretty cunning move?)
by benfunke on May 12, 2009 12:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Also
Sidney Ponson’s mom is friends’ with Bob McClure’s wife. I wish I were kidding.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on May 12, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 12, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
really?
How does Bob McClure’s wife know Queen Beatrix?
First.
The General Theory of Royaltivity
by kabrink on May 12, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Book club? Knitting club? AC/DC groupies?
I don’t know, I remember hearing Dayton or Trey talking about it.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on May 12, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I'm gonna call the Angels GM and see what it takes to get Brandon Wood
It’s obvious he is never gonna play in Anaheim because he just doesn’t fit the mold of playing “The Angels Way”. Do we have any lighthitting fast infielders that they would want? Maybe I can move DRob to SS and sell him on it.
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
by kcscoliny on May 12, 2009 12:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hochevar to the Rescue?
The kid is just not ready!!! Ponson is not doing that badly, so they should have just left Hoch alone. I don’t want to see another 1st round Royals pitcher ruined because they are brought up before they are ready.
by TampaRoyal on May 13, 2009 9:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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