I'm making this a separate thread.  I edited some errors and changed some descriptors to make it less than R-rated and added a few lines.

I posted a question under the Willie's Power is Blooming fanshot, the question was:

Can anyone recall a player who stayed in the majors for their first four or five years just being “right at replacement level” less than or equal to mediocrity; who had a breakout year and then was a .320/.400/.550 line for the next “forever” seasons until retirement?

If memory serves me correctly they break out in their first or second full year more often, or almost always.

Maybe it’s just me, but it seems the superstars get that way because they start out that way.

 But I’ll tell you what, for 45 of 46 hits to be singles, and that out of 192 PA’s; projecting to the line what’s his name put up there; damned if it doesn’t look like the guy you might want batting leadoff or #2. If Willie’s gonna get tagged as a career .280/.380/.280 hitter -crap to me that looks like a fairly above average guy, and I’ll take that for modest contract money any day.

I never thought he was anything but.

Retro came back with Raul Ibanez and maybe Hoagy.  Good call Retro!

And I was thinking Zack would be an example too but I disqualified him because for what it’s worth I feel like this is only his second full season as a starter. He’s not the same person he was 4-5 years ago, and call it what it is, mental illness is under control and he’s a new person. (before mud gets slung I want to say I mean no offense.) Basically Zack is now the type of superstar of which I speak.

While good, Raul and Hoagy aren’t the level I’m looking for but don’t shoot me yet let me explain. We’ve got maybe two, but I’m still leaning toward actually meaning even a higher quality player than Hoagy. I’m talking more Johnny Damon-Carlos Beltran-Ken Griffey type. I mean superstar. Isn’t that the expectation we have for Butler-Gordon-Moose-Hosmer-et al?

Hey don’t get me wrong I agree Raul and Hoagy are far better than just above average, and they did bloom a few games late.

I think a big bunch of my point lies inherently within the system. Organizations can’t afford to screw around with a guy for six years after he’s been developed in their farm system waiting for him to become something. He’s gonna have to put up or shut up, or he’ll get Mendy Lopezzed. (DFA’d or released outright) So you don’t get to see someone last that long, and/or basically it just ain’t gonna happen.

But the problem with that theory is that it flies in the face of my other faith, that coaching still makes a difference even at this elite level. There are guys at the level though that to my curmudgeonly skewed opinion have no business being there. But that allows the opportunity for the coaching to have a major impact.

So the backup for the latter point, there are a bunch of guys at the MLB level that to my curmudgeonly skewed opinion should not be there will be explained. My Grand dad taught me this at a very young age. He explained to me that the level of talent was deflated by expansion. Back in 1969 I was four years old and HE was the curmudgeon. Baseball was the American game for all boys, not soccer.

There are now thirty count ‘em thirty major league organizations all with 25 man rosters. That’s 750 roster spots to be filled by the very top of the very top level players. You’ve got to be damn good to be one of those 750. But that’s a significantly higher number of spots to be filled by prospects that have been playing ball since they were five years of age, than there were even in 1968 before THAT expansion that put the Royals and others in the league.

Back when I was five, there was no tee-ball league. We had pitchers. Every boy in town played little league baseball. How many towns had how many teams? There weren’t summer soccer leagues. We had baseball and we loved it and dreamed of playing in the bigs.
 
Diamondbacks, Rockies, Marlins, (Expos/Nationals), (Astros/Colt-.45’s), Brewers? (Braves moved to Atlanta from Milwaukee), (where did the Pilots go so they don’t count… aren’t they the Rangers now?), Mariners, Royals, Rays (Browns switched towns from St. Louis and became the Orioles). If my grandad were alive today, well, he’d be awful hungry and pissed off because he’s been in a box six feet under for about 29 years, but back in his day there were probably over 6,000,000 boys competing for not 750 roster spots from the age of five till the age of 18. There were only what, how many teams I should look it up to make this more like a professionally written piece but I won’t I’ll make it short and say five teams in each of four divisions for a grand total of only 500 roster spots. So there are 250 spots available now that weren’t in the “old” days. That means 250 guys that are there that by Grandpaw’s opinion, aren’t really good enough to be there. That’s a significant increase. One full third more spots.

There aren’t as many Little League programs any more. I’ve not done the research necessary to back that statement up, it’s just my observation. I don’t think that there are as many little boys playing ball these days as there were when I did it. So we are drawing talent from a smaller pool to fill a larger number of spots.

In 1990-something a guy got drafted by a big league club. Here, look up his stats.

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/players/player.php?p=merribr01

Brett Merriman was born on Friday, July 15, 1966, in Jacksonville, Illinois. Merriman was 26 years old when he broke into the big leagues on April 8, 1993, with the Minnesota Twins. His biographical data, year-by-year hitting stats, fielding stats, pitching stats (where applicable), career totals, uniform numbers, salary data and miscellaneous items-of-interest are presented by Baseball Almanac on this comprehensive Brett Merriman baseball stats page.

Look at that. I would have loved to even have that career let alone be a superstar. Just to throw balls at batters for 34 games over two stressful years in spotty but still Major Leauge games. Coaching did that, through several organizations.

I can tell you from experience through peewee league, pony league, Babe Ruth league, and American Legion Baseball, this guy did not amaze me. I mean I lit this guy up like a Christmas tree, but when he’s a 15 year old pitching to a 16 year old that’s what you expect. In Babe Ruth he threw two consecutive seven inning no-hitters, but then again they were against the worst team in the league. (not my team )  But none of that crap really matters. Brett made it and I’m proud of him. (no dammit he’s not my brother) Point is, he must have got some coaching at Grand Canyon State so that he would even get looked at let alone drafted.  Into a farm system where he must have had even MORE quality instruction. Then he got called up to one of those “extra” 250 spots for 34 glorious chances to play MLB.

How many players are just a little bit better than that? All those guys, the guys that are filling those 250 more roster spots, are the guys that teams need to get that little edge. That’s why I believe in this day and age coaching at the highest level is so incredibly important. It’s gonna be the guy that tweaks Farnsworth just a little bit to get two inches of movement on a fastball that goes only ONE mph slower but becomes 75% harder to hit.

Five more wins over the course of a season is complemented by FIVE FEWER losses, and in a division like the AL Central right now, that is the difference between the top and the bottom, not the top and second place.  Well maybe that's a drastic statement, but it's the difference between 81-81 and 86-76. 

And now for other good news I still think Gil Meche is hurt.