Mike Jacobs's Three 2009 Seasons
by Freneau on May 18, 2009 12:30 AM EDT
in Kansas City Royals News
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PrintMike Jacobs is hot again, and as an act of goodwill, I'd like to point that out in a little RR post. Let the archives reflect I was not 100% negative.
Jacobs has homered in three of his last four games, and is hitting .357/.357/1.000 in that stretch. Looking at his game log, his hot stretch seems to have started around May 4th.
Jacobs, as you'll recall, hit well to start the season, then nearly went hitless for two weeks, before bouncing back (apparently) with his most recent surge (I bet Jacobs drank Surge back in the late 1990s).
Cherry-picking the data for the most extreme results, you get three distinct patches -- mini-seasons if you will -- of Jacobsball.
| PAs | BA | OBP | SLG | HR | |
| April 7-21 | 47 | .326 | .383 | .698 | 4 |
| April 22- May 3 | 40 | .111 | .200 | .139 | 0 |
| May 4-15 | 40 | .361 | .425 | .750 | 4 |
| Total | 127 | .270 | .339 | .539 | 8 |
At the moment, Jacobs HR rate is right in line with what he did last year (6.3%, 6.2% in '08), which is good I suppose, though a bit of a bummer since he's had to go on a spree to catch up. His strikeouts and walks are both up a tick from last season however, which may suggest a new approach at the plate. At the moment, his walk rate of 8.7% is his highest since 2006.
My impression was that Trey had done a decent job shielding Jacobs from lefties, but the numbers don't quite bear that out. He's still racked up 46 PAs against LHPs this year, against 81 versus RHPs. At best, it's been a partial shielding, and it wouldn't suprise me if uneven distribution of PAs against LHPs is in part whats driving these swings in MJs performance. For the record, his line against lefties is .262/.326/.310, while versus righties he's .274/.346/.671. All eight of his homers are against northpaws.
Thanks to Butler's stunning emergence as a somewhat competent gloveman, Jacobs has only played 81 innings at first this season. Among the twelve players considered full-time AL DHs on Fangraphs, Jacobs is 6th in wOBA, 6th in wRAA and 10th in WPA.
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Jacobs, Crisp and Bloomquist...
are all OPS’ing over 800 so far this year.
I wonder how bloomquist will handle the media crunch during his pursuit of .400
its a good thing he’ll have George Brett around to lean on
great comparison
Kingman was a more capable defender, though
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on May 16, 2009 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Jacobs brings the long ball power that KC has been sorely lacking
In the old days, Balboni wasn’t much for fielding and high average – was also slow a foot. But he could hit the bombs. In the AL, you need a guy who go deep. Remember Dougie and Gload, Hal Morris, and the like. For me, give me 1B who can go yard! Best 1B combo in Butler and Jacobs since Sweeney was healthy.
I’d like to see Kila as trade bait down the stretch – top 100 prospect at beginning of year with power and plate discipline to tempt the Pirates, Nationals, Rockies or Orioles.
I'd really rather not trade Kila.
Him and Billy as a 1B/DH platoon looks good to me.
If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.
you'd platoon Billy Butler already?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on May 16, 2009 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
not necessarily,
but Billy and Kila is better than Billy and Mike for me…looking 2-3 years down the road.
If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.
oh, yeah, that makes more sense
I still think bring Shealy/House up now to platoon with Jacobs, and then don’t bring Jacobs back after this season (trade — hopefully high) and use Kila as the other half of the platoon next season or whenever.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on May 16, 2009 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Shealy will obviously never a be a Royal.
Might as well trade him now for whatever we can get.
If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.
Irrational
The irrational side of me does not care what Jacobs’ OBP, BA, wOBA, or +/- on defense is, as long as he breaks that dubious record of 36 home runs set two eras ago. Ball go far, young man!
The rational side of me believes that Trey has generally been doing a good job maximizing his value, keeping him off the diamond other than on offense.
Jacobs is doing exactly what they got him for
and that is hitting the long ball. Everyone obviously knew about the BA, OBP, etc. 32 bombs last year is 32 bombs. If he breaks Balboni’s team record he will be worth the one year investment. If he hits that many hopefully it will be one of the things that keeps the Royals in contention.
Jacobs is doing a great job so far
More than meeting his contract expectations (Nunez aside).
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
Although this year of the deal might look okay so far, we’ll see how things turn out by the end, and the second year might be the kicker. Mike Jacobs’ salary isn’t too onerous, but once one adjusts for arbitration values, one realizes just how unlikely it is that he’ll hit well enough to “earn” it.
The one worrisome thing is that Jacobs has precisely the profile to get a big arb raise, given that these arbitration hearings apparently take place in the 1960s.
yeah, I don't see a seconario under which it's a good idea to bring him back
if he doesn’t hit well, then, well, that answers itself
If he does continue hitting well, sell high
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on May 16, 2009 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions
And congratulations on finally using wOBA in a post
is this the first time?
by the way, for a park-adjusted wRAA (which is just runs above/below average according to linear weights; wOBA is just a rate stat version of lwts), go down to the “Batting” column of the “Value” section of the player pages or leaderboards.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
sorry if that sounded too condescending or patronizing
I didn’t mean it that way, although it doesn’t have to be meant that way to be so
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on May 16, 2009 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions
somehow your note that you are not being condescending or patronizing
is even more condescending and/or patronizing. you’ve got a gift.
thanks
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on May 17, 2009 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions
So Jacobs is now on pace to hit 38 or so homers, which would break the record
I thought that was pretty cool until I caught part of sportscenter last night and realized that Johnny freakin’ Damon has 10 HRs already. That kind of killed the buzz.
that's only because
he plays in New Yankee Stadium – homer heaven!
"Well, if we destroy Kansas the world may not hear about it for years." Blofeld
The General Theory of Royaltivity
I am glad that Jacobs is hitting bombs,
it just seems to me that the majority of them are solo shots.
I’d really like to see him get them when there are runners on base.
Superstitious? I'm not superstitious
*draws crown on floor in front of tv in gold chalk
*spins Frank White bobblehead conterclockwise three times
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