So What is the Deal with Wins Above Replacement? Or, WAR, What is it Good For? A (Relatively) Brief Primer Using the Current Royals' Leaderboard
This is an adaption of the current (as of 5/20/2009) Royals' WAR leaderboard for position players at FanGraphs:
| Name | Batting | Fielding | Replacement | Positional | RAR | WAR |
| Coco Crisp | 2.9 | 1.7 | 5.8 | 0.6 | 10.9 | 1.1 |
| Alberto Callaspo | 6.6 | -1.3 | 4.8 | 0.6 | 10.6 | 1 |
| Mark Teahen | 4.6 | -0.1 | 5.2 | 0.2 | 9.9 | 1 |
| Mike Jacobs | 4.8 | -0.1 | 4.7 | -3.5 | 5.8 | 0.6 |
| Billy Butler | 2.8 | 0.6 | 4.9 | -3 | 5.3 | 0.5 |
| John Buck | 0.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 4.1 | 0.4 | |
| Mitch Maier | 0.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | -0.8 | 3.6 | 0.3 |
| Willie Bloomquist | 2.7 | -2.7 | 3 | -0.4 | 2.6 | 0.3 |
| David DeJesus | -4.3 | 2.5 | 5.1 | -1.7 | 1.6 | 0.2 |
| Alex Gordon | -1.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Miguel Olivo | -4.5 | 3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0 | |
| Jose Guillen | 3.6 | -6.9 | 3.6 | -1.5 | -1.2 | -0.1 |
| Tony Pena | -2.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | -1.4 | -0.1 |
| Mike Aviles | -11 | -1.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | -7.6 | -0.7 |
But what does all of that really mean?
This spring, before the start of the regular season, there was some discussion about some of the newer (I hate the word "advanced" -- makes things sound more complicated than they really are) stats, requests for them to be explained with reference to Royals players. So a mini-series began with Gopherballs' post on FIP, NYRoyal's post on hitting stats, and my own compilation of some introductory sabermetric links.
Shortly after that, NYRoyal asked if I would take WAR (Wins Above Replacement). I was flattered, but a bit worried, since WAR isn't just one stat, but a bunch of them put together, and is different for position players and pitchers (and starters are different than relievers!). WAR is a "total value" stat -- it is supposed to tell us what a player is worth compared not just to other players at his position, or other hitters, or other fielders, but as a whole.
This is just an introduction and brief overview. I might come back alter and discuss individual aspects in depth (such as replacement level, etc.). For now, I'm just going to deal with position players. For an introductory piece on pitcher value, check the links above or click here.
One more thing before the concrete discussion: almost all the concepts and ideas herein are debated as to how they are implemented or if they should be used at all in the sabermetric community. So if you don't like something or disagree with it, chances are, you aren't alone. Again, this is just a way to understand what's up when someone mentions a player's "WAR."
I will simply go through the columns and explain what they mean.
Batting is runs created above what a league average player would create in the same number of plate appearances according to linear weights. While FanGraphs uses a custom version and park adjusts the numbers in the Batting column, the basic formula for this is ((wOBA-lgwOBA)/1.15)*PA.
Fielding is the number of runs above or below what an average player would have saved in the same playing time in the same position(s) the player played. FanGraphs uses a version of Mitchel Litchman's Ultimate Zone Rating (their version is sometimes referred to as "bUZR" because it uses data from Baseball Info Solutions rather than STATS Inc.). Fielding stats are still developing and controversial. Even moreso than batting stats, one should be very aware of sample size issues with fielding stats. A good rule of thumb is that one full season of fielding stats is the same sort of sample as two month so of hitting stats in relation to true talent. Nonetheless, we are addressing value rather than ability here -- players can go through hot streaks and cold streaks, have up and down seasons in fielding as well as hitting. This is a huge topic on its own, and I've said too much already. Note that there are no in-seasons catcher defensive stats listed, as UZR only covers groundballs for infields, a very small part of catcher defense. Catcher defense is tough to measure in general -- there are some good ways of doingn it now with reference to SBs, blocking pitches, etc., but they are mostly done after the season when Retrosheet data is available. that's a whole 'nother discussion, though.
Let's skip over to positional. There are different ways of adjusting for positions, and how this is done is a matter about which there are many different opinions. These adjustments are Tom Tango's. In short, we know that the group of players who can play average defense and hit like major leaguers is much small at SS than at 1B. So we prorate a different number of runs above/below "average" playes overall playing time at each position. Prorated for 162 games played (and for separate positions so that, e.g., Buck, Guillen, Jacobs, et. al. have playing time prorated acording to the time they've spent at DH as well as their regular positions), FanGraphs uses these run values:
C +12.5
SS +7.5
2B/3B/CF +2.5
LF/RF -7.5
1B -12.5
DH -17.5
Replacement is probably the toughest thing to explain, so I apologize in advance for its brevity. Major league teams want to beat other major league teams. To do this, they have to purchase talent through the draft, trades, or signing free agents with scarce resources. While there are millions of people out there who would gladly play pro baseball for free, those who would actually help a major league team beat others are quite scarce. In short, a "replacement level" player is the term for the kind of player that a team would not have to give up talent or money over the league minimum. Triple-A lifers, etc. This is a more useful conceptual baseline than average because not all below average players are freely available -- hence the Royals paying out more than the minimum for two catchers most would see as below average overall players.
[NB: If you ever hear or read someone saying or writing that "sure, the team overpaid for that replacement level player, but they don't already have one in the system!" they either understand replacement level to mean something completely different than what we're discussing here, or, more likely, they don't understand it at all. By definition, a replacement level player is freely available -- if a team gives up talent and/or more than the league minimum for a player, they do not see him as a replacement level player.]
For position players, replacement level about 2 wins/20 runs below average when adding up batting, fielding, and positional adjustment. This accounts for a player's playing time. Even if a player is below the average major leaguer offensively and/or defensively at a relatively non-scarce position like LF, The time the player spends on the field is valuable (given the economic aspect of baseball) because it is the value the player provides over the theoretical Triple-A scrub a team would grab as a free agent at $400,000/year or whatever.
RAR is Runs Above Replacement -- it simply totals the batting, fielding, positional, and replacement columns to give the players "total value." Again, this is against the average/replacement level baseline, _not_ zero. A replacement level player _does_ do something -- he will field some balls, get on base at some point, etc. What teams are interested in are players who can do this at a level beyond what they and every other team can get for "free." ONe can adjust this for relative league difficulty and era, but Fangraphs keeps is simple, prorates replacement level for position players at +20 runs/600 PAs.
WAR is Wins Above Replacement -- runs converted to marginal wins. Teams are after wins, after all. The runs-win ratio is on one hand a complex subject, but in modern baseball, it's pretty much close to 10 runs per win each season.
You can also see last season's leaderboard, but let's go with today's, as posted above. To see what is going on. WAR helps us see just why CoCo Crisp has been the most valuable position player on the team so far this season -- he doesn't have the best offensive numbers (wOBA/Batting includes steals) or even fielding numbers, but he's above average in both at a premium position (CF) and has played in almost every game. He just edges out Bert because -- and this will shock you -- Bert hasn't been great on defense this season.
Mike Jacobs has been one of the Royals best offensive players so far this season, but since he mostly plays DH (and was dreadful at first in limited time there), he's only the Royals 4th most valuable player. While David DeJesus' struggles against LHP have been extremely frustrating so far this season, and Jose Guillen has had a surprisingly good season so far with the bat, Guillen not only missed time with injury, but has given away more marginal runs with his glove then he has produced with his bat. It's stuff like this WAR was made for.
I hope this is helpful to someone. Remember the usual "small sample size" stuff. And keep in mind that sabermetics, as I understand it, is supposed to make the game more accessible and understandable for fans like you and me, not make it more complicated. If I can understand it, you can. And it's all open for debate and discussion.
Quick Update: I should have put this in the original post. What do WAR numbers generally mean? Roughly, over a full season of play, here's a loose rubric. Remember that the following "grades" are for the whole year, we are only through only a fraction of the season so far.
0 or lower (should be) AAA scrub, or not ready, or shouldn't be in pro baseball
1 bench player
2 average
3 above average
4 very good
5 great
6+ one of the best players in the league
Another way to look at this, from the full-season perspective, is like the grading scale in school (back when people were allowed to fail): 0 =F, 1 = D, 2 = C, 3 = B, 4 = A, 5+ = teh awesome
Some WAR numbers from last season:
Albert Pujols 8.9
Chase Utley 8.1
Chipper Jones 7.6
Hanley Ramirez 7.6
Milton Bradley 4.5
Josh Hamilton 4.0
Willie Harris 3.2
Bobby Abreu 1.2
Robinson Cano 0.5
Jason Kubel 0.4
Willie Tavares -0.1
Jeff Francoeur -1.3
Another Update: If you just want an idea of where a guy is "right now" with respect to being "good" or bad, and/or don't like the idea of replacement level," all you have to do is take his current RAR total and subtract the "replacement" amount. That will give you the player's current runs above/below average (average being 0). If the number is greater than 0, he's above average, if it's lower, he's below average. For example, take Billy Butler (as in the above chart's data, it's different by now) -- he's hitting decently, but is it enough to be an average or above average 1B when combined with his fielding? His total RAR is 5.4, subtract the 4.9 replacement runs, and you get 0.4 -- yup, so far, Billy has been an above average player.
5 recs |
93 comments
Comments
I am going to attempt
to read this, so that maybe, JUST MAYBE, I can understand what it means.
By the way, feel free to do a write-up on some of the other stats that you guys use similar to this. As I am totally clueless, honestly.
Trey-Hillman-I'm-A-Dumbfuck-Giveaway-Counter: 4 (as of April 23rd)
"It's gonna be a special year. I'm feeling it." - Jose Guillen - You tell 'em, JoGui!!!
Proud Creator of the "Finsx lol Chart"
by KCsince88 on May 20, 2009 2:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Willie and Maier are both equally valuable players so far this year??
Really? Even leaving grit out of the equation, that seems pretty odd.
Great writeup, though. That’s about as concise and as easy to understand as I’ve ever seen WAR explained. I really appreciate the effort you guys are putting into these posts.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on May 20, 2009 2:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
that jumped out to me as well
defense baby
and that’s factorig in the greatest hitting stretch of his career, yikes
by royalsreview on May 20, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
gotta give credit to MITCH
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
also... Willie's 0.3 WAR isn't so bad at his point in the season
I mean, at this “rate” (“on pace for stats” = teh awesome), and assumming he gets 400 more PAs this season (if he was a full-timer), he’d be around 1.5 WAR, which, for $1.5M, would be great.
All he has to do is maintain a .370 wOBA!
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well consistent playing time won't be a problem...
by royalsreview on May 20, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
don't worry, sitting on the bench and coming in as a pinch runner twice a week
is just what Aviles needs to get going
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that sunavabitch made his bed, now let him lie in it
I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me
by LeoBloom on May 20, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
DF -- Should add PA for reference on the offensive stats
and IP/G for reference for the defensive stats.
Both give a reference to amount of playing time.
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on May 20, 2009 2:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but I just learned to copy-and-paste, as you advised me!
I just took the leaderboard from FanGraphs. I figure people can click on the player links to get that info.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gordon...
impressive defensive numbers from gordon, considering that he only played 58 innings at 3B this year
by royalsreview on May 20, 2009 3:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
yeah, but remember the usual SSS stuff
Teahen was rockin’ at first, and now he’s… not
FGs is adding new stuff all the time — they just added RV/by pitch to the pitcher pages
hopefully, they’ll add in baserunning after this season
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the concise description
This was very helpful, though I doubt I truly understand some of it, and furthermore……
Knowing all of this is great and helpful, but who else uses these stats? (ie at the end of the year does a GM go through stuff like this, and use this info to help make off season decisions on this?)
On a side note, poor Olivo is about as much worth as Gordon who hasn’t played but a few games……….we need an Olivo depressed meme. I’m thinking Eor from Winnie the Poo.
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 20, 2009 3:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think nearly all teams have a guy on staff that's looking at this stuff
but how much it is or isn’t valued ranges widely… look at Guillen, obviously GMDM either didn’t see or didn’t believe in all the various advanced stats on him
I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me
by LeoBloom on May 20, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
I did not know that.
I guess that is true about Guillen, so it just varies about how much these stats could be weighed in to help make decisions, which is all based upon the people making the roster decisions….
I think I just blew my mind.
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 20, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well and some people, a lot of people actually
don’t buy the defensive stats much at all, which form a huge part of all this
or they believe in soft factors like lineup presence, RBI-men, protection, etc.
I would bet my life that GMDM thinks that Guillen is a feared hitter who forces pitchers to throw more strikes to other Royals hitters and that he changes the gameplan just being a threat…
I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me
by LeoBloom on May 20, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good, then at least there is some humanity left in Baseball
Except when Mr. Mark McGrit Von Clutch Jacobs comes in, he is all robot
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 20, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
like that game last season when "terrible bust" Alex Gordon got walked five time in front of "feared hitter" Jose Guillen
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ooppss....I cross homogenated Mark Teahen and Mike Jacobs
bit it still kinda works considering last nights game and all
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 20, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think GMDM hoped Jose would be that guy.
I’d be surprised if he is still thinking that.
If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.
by Warden11 on May 20, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great stuff, one request
Can you add a column for WAR/150? if that is a real stat, that is…just like to see how PT factors in.
We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan
by Royal Kingdom on May 20, 2009 3:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
hmmm....
adding columns is actually a pain in the butt in the SBNation editor. Turning WAR into a rate stat is sort of weird, but one thing you (and anyone else) can do to get the same effect is to look at the “replacement” colulmn above, and to this to prorate for 600 PAs (about 150 games):
RAR x (20/replacement)
So, for CoCo, take his WAR (1.1) and multiply it by 20/5.8):
10.9 * (20/5.8) = 3.8
Screw it, I put it into my spreadsheet, and here is everyone’s WAR/600 off of today’s stats
Coco Crisp 3.8
Alberto Callaspo 4.2
Mark Teahen 3.8
Mike Jacobs 2.6
Billy Butler 2.0
John Buck 3.0
Mitch Maier 4.6
Willie Bloomquist 2.0
David DeJesus 0.8
Alex Gordon 0.0
Miguel Olivo 0.0
Jose Guillen -0.6
Tony Pena -5.0
Mike Aviles -3.7
GORDON’S A BUST!!!!11111 He’s been at replacment level for weeks
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
MORE MITCH NOW!!!!
We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan
by Royal Kingdom on May 20, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hee hee
just noticed that
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Question
I thought the new orthodoxy was that we shouldn’t look at positional adjustments as much and that the argument that a player loses value if he moves to a lesser position defensively was somehow wrong. (I seem to remember people saying this wrt to DDJ switch from CF to LF.)
WAR obviously, is pretty heavily tied to positional adjustments however. thoughts?
I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me
by LeoBloom on May 20, 2009 3:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Correct, but ...
CF is kind of anomaly. Any hit in the gaps that get through, the CF get dinged on his defensive rating, so he gets the initial boost.
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on May 20, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Teahen messing with your WAR adjustments
One game at a time
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 20, 2009 3:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
remember these are FanGraph's numbers
although I think they’re good
what do you mean, exactly? Just asking — don’t quite get it
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some of these are weighted by defence depending on position right?
When Gordon gets back, God knows where Teahen is gonna end up…. so then you’ll have to calculate based on the number of games at which position he is at right?
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 20, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes lame joke
my bad
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 20, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sorry, still confused
do you mean the WAR/600 thing?
Adjustments are all done by games already played. They’re prorated. For each game Teahen plays at 3B, it adds 2.5/162 runs.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sure but then it adds or subtracts depending if he isn't at 3B, right? or am I not understanding it
2B/3B/CF +2.5
LF/RF -7.5
1B -12.5
Which are all positions Teahen could theroretically end up playing, so then you would have to adjust his WAR at different positions, correct? Or while trying to be funny, I just completely messed up my comprehension of it?
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 20, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's why WAR/600
is what it is — not that useful other t han to give an idea. It just projects the player’s performance and adjsutment over 600s assuming he does exactly the same thing. It’s why I didn’t put it up there. People just want an idea of “how good” these guys are doing.
I should have put this in the post above, I still will. In general, over a full season, this is what we can make of WAR rating (generalities):
0 or lower: (should be) AAA scrub, or not ready, or shouldn’t be in pro baseball
1: bench player
2: average
3 above average
4 very good
5 great
6+ best players in the league
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok, so then Teahen could have multiple WAR values by the end of the season?
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 20, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
it’s all additive. For each game he plays at 3B, he gets +2.5/162 runs added value. For every game at RF, he gets -7.5/162 runs added value. Ad the end of the season, you add all those up for the overall positional adjustment.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
AHHHhhh there's the rub
ok, completely irrelevant joke
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 20, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hurray
not just a bad joke, but one that has no basis at all on the subject at hand
I feel like a writer from Family Guy………not in a good way
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 20, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Got the Manitee tank going?
sorry if I missed the joke… then it’s my bad
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
nah
I just saw adjustments based on position, and I thought holy shit I bet calculating Teahens’ WAR has got to be a bitch
But it isn’t, because these adjustments are per game, prorated, not as a WAR/150 games or whatever, there in WAR is kinda per game reflection as it is. There in calculating a players war that can be placed at multiple positions isn’t any more difficult than a player that can only play one position.
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 20, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
right
sorry I explained it so poorly
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no your explination was great, it led me to make a horrible joke
then that made me understand it more
thanks
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 20, 2009 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There in thus.........
Teahen messing with your WAR one game at a time. Joke is not only a bad STATS/Baseball joke, it isn’t even relevant to the WAR stat at all
Hence the manitees.
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 20, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't believe Futurama got canceled...
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is it true
that comedy central is gonna try to get that up again? or is that just urban myth? Like eskimos.
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 20, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think they aired remaining eps
the rest of the “seasons” are the DVD movies
I think
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The DVD movies
Are considered the “5th Season”.
The creators hope someone will want them to produce more, but no confirmation of any talks yet.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
by cmkeller on May 21, 2009 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so wait
does this mean that only one player on the Royals is close to being average? at least so far?
Crisp
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 20, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That rubric is for a full season of play
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the further explinations
and taking the time to describe this to the page retard (no offense to retards, I am just that slow)
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 20, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're good
at explaining things clearly in simple language.
I have a problem with positional adjustments: I find them very arbitrary. I’m a little iffy about the concept of a replacement player as well, since I imagine each team has its own idea of what that is.
What someone ought to do is make up a definition of a replacement-level player. For example: Fewer than 150 at-bats in the majors during the season, age 27 or above (to eliminate young prospects whose value will increase), no significant time on the disabled list (to eliminate guys who didn’t make 150 at-bats because they were hurt), and salary below $500,000. Probably should add the qualifier that the guy must be in at least his second organization (that is, at least one gave up on him.).
Then count up the stats of all the players who fit the definition for the 2008 season, average them out, and we’ll find out the real stats racked up by real replacement-level players, rather than the “typical” replacement player, an imaginary construct, currently used in stats like VORP.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
by Juancho on May 20, 2009 3:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
To get the values for replacement players, they actually look at players that were replaced in the season
Maier would be a perfect example. He was called up for Guillen. He came up and rplace Jose and usually be sent back.
Through past experience the level is found to be around the bottom 10% to 20% of players at the position.
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on May 20, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the definition I just made up is better than
“players replaced during the season.”
And what I want to know is: “An average replacement-level third baseman in 2008 went .238/.302/.356, had a strikeout-walk ratio of 3.2:1, hit 2.4 home runs per 100 at-bats, and had a fielding rating of (whatever your favorite system says).”
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
by Juancho on May 20, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
here's a good series
by Colin Wyers on replacement level inthe context of payroll and stuff
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A lot to talk about here
The positional adjustments (both the values themselves and how to do them in general) are a pretty controversial topic. Dave Cameron gives an introduction to them here.
They are from Tom Tango, and like I said, not everyone likes them. If you are willing to read through the comments, check out some of his threads on this topic, as these are those he got to at some point last season.
UZR Positional Adjusments
Revised w/2008 UZR
The Latest
The issues are pretty thick. My main point here is to show how FGs does it. There’s info enough there so that you can at least know how t hey’re getting the numbers, even if you dohn’t agree, and you can make changes yourself. Some people think 3Bs are overvalued, and prefer “0” for 3B. Keep in mind that’s 2.5 runs over 162 games.
As for replacement level… well, there are a lot of issues there… Jeff? Ah, there you go. Maybe I’ll come back later with some more links.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I opened this to read
and have changed my mind. This is “read after a nap” material.
by KCScuba on May 20, 2009 3:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
sorry
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it's clearly written
and I’m an English teacher, among other things. It’s not difficult to decipher what Dev is saying. The problem is that the subject he is writing about (advanced stats) is currently being hotly debated, and nobody is 100% right on any of it. Most of these guys working on these stats admit cheerfully that sabermetrics is a work in progress. The apple has not fallen on Newton’s head yet.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
by Juancho on May 20, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm gonna go with "it was really long".
and I found it a good read. So the Royals are a team of bench players and players that shouldn’t be in the league, huh?
by KCScuba on May 20, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the position players are pretty weak, yes
this team is winning b/c of its pitching
by royalsreview on May 20, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
remember that the rubric is for a full season
the values you see are for about a fifth of the season
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
I understand the concept of replacement level player. But, I’m not quite following your table. The actual values in the table under “Replacement” mean what exactly? These are runs that would be produced by a replacement level player at that position? If that’s the case, wouldn’t Coco’s (for example) RAR = 10.9 – 5.8? => WAR = 0.5 ?
"Well, if we destroy Kansas the world may not hear about it for years." Blofeld
The General Theory of Royaltivity
by kabrink on May 20, 2009 3:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No
It’s the value an average player has over the replacement player per PA, Fangraph sets that value at 20/600 per PA.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So
Coco’s 5.8 is based entirely on his # of PAs so far this season. Nothing positional in it. I guess I also didn’t understand the difference in “Replacement” values as you go down the list. Hence, my question. The difference has to be based on something and I assumed positional.
"Well, if we destroy Kansas the world may not hear about it for years." Blofeld
The General Theory of Royaltivity
by kabrink on May 20, 2009 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the differentin replacement values is entirely tied to PAs (one could do it by games, too)
the difference in positional values is separate — that’s by games. One could to that by Innings played at position, too
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now I am going for total confustion
Replacement is mainly an adjustment for the Fielding and Batting numbers which are average numbers. The more at bats a player get the more these numbers increase
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on May 20, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but then they could just do
batting stat divided by .80 or something, right?
My head hurts.
We should start our own site, that’s just like FanGraphs, except with less stats, and are also more outdated, with a bunch of superflous commentary, then charge $40 a year for people to access the “good” stuff
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
sounds like the deeper you go, the deeper you have to go.
I was thinking about that and if the Batting and Fielding are for “average” players then doesn’t there really need to be Batting and Fielding for Replacement rather than one number? Especially since, as I always read on here, the Fielding portion is very difficult and controversial to develop.
"Well, if we destroy Kansas the world may not hear about it for years." Blofeld
The General Theory of Royaltivity
by kabrink on May 20, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
eek, better get back to work
will join in again later.
"Well, if we destroy Kansas the world may not hear about it for years." Blofeld
The General Theory of Royaltivity
by kabrink on May 20, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anothe complicated issue
Some people (BP) think there are replacement level fieldrers. However, check this good article by Justin Inaz (who did his own version of a WAR/Total Value stat before FanGraphs — it was awesome. Lots of good reading at his blog). Replacement level players are pretty much the same sort of defenders that average players are. The main difference is in the bat.
This may lead people to ask “then is VORP correct in just adjusting by offense?” No. While there is a greater variance in offensive abilities between replacement players and MLB regulars than there is in defense, a guy like, say, Adam Everett or Craig Counsel can be a horrible hitter, but still be a good enough defender to be a league average starter. That’s why I should have put the excellent phrase “there are no replacement level hitters or replacement level fielders, only replacement level players” in the body of the text.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks D_F
for the post, and thanks all the rest of ya’all for the comments. I mean to study this stuff ‘cause ya’all have got me geeked about this “new stat” stuff; what it has done is provide a ton of ‘backup’ to things that I thought I already saw.
Again, thanks. I intend to be a student.
Yeah? From what I hear, you couldn't hit water if you fell out of a f@#%ing boat.
by BillyMojo on May 20, 2009 5:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
How is fielding more important than hitting
Guillen had one play that looked awful in RF when the ball bounced off his glove on the foul line. But now his WAR numbers is below 0? His .402 OBP makes him a AAA scrub.
It’s just ridiculous. Yes, he’s not a good defender, but his arm prevents runners from advancing (unlike Coco who can’t even prevent albatrosses like Giambi from advancing). He made an error. Who cares.WE WEREN’T GOING TO BEAT THE ANGLES ANYWAY! I think many of these “advanced” stats aren’t noticed by main stream America, not because they clash with the original statistics revered on the back of a baseball card – it’s because they are over-analyzed and overthought . Some of you can bash me all I want that I don’t followSabermetrics as some sort of Bible and Bill James is not a God (although i do agree with the system of objectivity)
Guillne has an OBP of .402. Gordton was atrocious at the plate on not any better in the field and Mark Teahen has been a better offensive and defensive player than him as well but his fielding statistical is worse?
Fielding is valued WAY TOO MUCH. I’m also a Mets fan and watch most of their games. Daniel Murphy has been every bit as horrible in LF as Guillen has. HE ACTUALLY LOST A GAME WHEN JOHAN DIDN’T EVEN GIVE UP AN EARNED RUN.
I’m sick of reading all the hypothesis and thorough analysis of why Guillen is the biggest piece of shit on earth (meanwhile he has the 2nd best OBP or our team hitting in an important 3-5 slot, positions hitters like Alex Gordon can only produce a meager .300 OBP at – he needs to be bumped down to the 6th, 7th slot to produce)
We scored one run the game Guillen made that huge error. I’m just tired of it. Sorry for the rant
by GobbleforCyoung on May 20, 2009 5:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The problem is that Guillen is not better than almost any RF the game
Compared to other RFers he is way below average. He may be some what of an OK hitter compared to Olivo, but compared to the other RFs in the game he sucks. Yes he sucks compared to other corner OFers.
Which of the RFers in the above link do you think is worse than Guillen?
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on May 20, 2009 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This year he's better than
Maglio
Chruch
Cust
Francour
Swisher
Winn
Hart
Ross
Cuddyer
But none of them are making 12 million so I can relate to your point
by GobbleforCyoung on May 20, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
for this year
you are right about all those guys except Cust.
And Swisher
And Winn
and Cuddyer
or Hart
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
QUIT BRINGING STATS INTO THIS GD ARGUMENT!
wait… I meant sabermetric stats.
If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.
by Warden11 on May 21, 2009 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Addedum: One thing I wish I had emphasized more in the main piece
is that while WAR is sort of a “counting” stat, it isn’t really (other than “replacement”) since batting, fielding, etc. are all with reference to average, so just because I guy is +5 in hitting now, if he goes ‘cold" or whatever he could end up negative. Same with fielding. Jose Guillen’s -6.9 is as UZR/150 of -47.6. Yeah… he’s a bad defender, but he’s not going to end up at -47.6 runs. Just like with hitting, fielders go through slumps. Just like with hitting, they regress to the mean.
In other words, this is just a “so far” stat. Guys heat up and cool down. Judging a player’s future performance by 6 weeks of WAR is as almost as dumb as judging his hitting potential based on 26 PAs.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 20, 2009 6:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Two more (hyopefully helpul) notes
1) On the “grading scale” 1-6+ Remember that the following “grades” are for the whole year, we are only through only a fraction of the season so far. Another way to look at this, from the full-season perspective, is like the grading scale in school (back when people were allowed to fail): 0 =F, 1 = D, 2 = C, 3 = B, 4 = A, 5+ = teh awesome
2) f you just want an idea of where a guy is “right now” with respect to being “good” or bad, and/or don’t like the idea of replacement level," all you have to do is take his current RAR total and subtract the “replacement” amount. That will give you the player’s current runs above/below average (average being 0). If the number is greater than 0, he’s above average, if it’s lower, he’s below average. For example, take Billy Butler (as in the above chart’s data, it’s different by now) — he’s hitting decently, but is it enough to be an average or above average 1B when combined with his fielding? His total RAR is 5.4, subtract the 4.9 replacement runs, and you get 0.4 — yup, so far, Billy has been an above average player.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 21, 2009 11:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Very well done
Thanks for doing this.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on May 21, 2009 12:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
no prob
good to have you back
You gotta get over to the postgame and join me and Gopherballs’ “Rosa Now!” campaign. Heck, you should be running it!
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 21, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good to be back
I moved last Friday (within NY) and I’m still unpacking, assembling baby furniture, etc. That has left little time for blogging.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on May 21, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ah... I thought the baby might have come already, but I didn't want to ask until you "announced"
I hope this kid doesn’t get in the way of your real work
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 21, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This kid is already causing me problems
I think we should re-think this baby thing.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on May 21, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
havent taken statistics yet (next spring)
but i have a random question DF. would it help for defense stats to have all outfields cut their grass the same way in exact squares and take time from contact to catch and distance (squares) traveled kinda like they do in mythbusters for high speed camera work. also how much do errors hurt a players defense rating
My stories a lot like yours only more interesting because it involves robots!
by AvilesRotY on May 21, 2009 12:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
well, like I said, if I can understand this WAR stuff, anyone can
I’ve never taken stats, and I was/am terrible with math
As for your question about defensive stats, I really don’t know. There are park adjustments made for certain aspects, but it’s like other park adjustments — comparing results in the subject park to league average.
For park adjustments in general, maybe TucsonRoyal can chime in here, as he did some cool work on weather, altitude, etc.
Gopherballs knows more details about how defensive stat info. is gathered than I.
Here’s a good intro to the various defensive stats by David Gassko, although it’s pre-plus/minus (Dewan’s system).
here is MGL’s introduction to UZR.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 21, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For the gathering of info for the defensive stats
google John Dewan — there are several articles and interviews where he explains how Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) collects the data (UZR on fangraphs uses this data). In short, there is no need to cut the grass uniformly because they can do the same thing using video and computers.
by Gopherballs on May 21, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hit f/x should help with defensive stats as well,
correct?
If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.
by Warden11 on May 21, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Absolutely
BIS takes into account how hard balls are hit, but actual MPH readings would certainly offer more precision. I think hit f/x will also read the angle of balls off the bat, but we might have to wait for field f/x to get the precise angle of balls as they approach the fielder.
by Gopherballs on May 21, 2009 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
how do they adjust for the hill in houston
haha wtf were they thinking when they put that there
My stories a lot like yours only more interesting because it involves robots!
by AvilesRotY on May 21, 2009 1:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
hmm.. ok
thanks for the links
My stories a lot like yours only more interesting because it involves robots!
by AvilesRotY on May 21, 2009 1:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

















