Heart, Guts, Magic, Momentum, Belief & Something Special Come up a Little Short, Against A Reeling Indians Team No Less
by Freneau on May 20, 2009 11:44 PM EDT
in Kansas City Royals News
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PrintAs it turns out, life isn't a perpetual Disney movie.
No matter how hard you hug Willie Bloomquist, sometimes it just doesn't happen. The Royals looked like a team of destiny last night, while the Indians have looked like a team cursed for about two months now.
I'm sure everyone in the dugout felt as great tonight as they did last night, I'm sure they wanted it just as badly. I'm sure they believed. Moreover, I'm sure many of the Indians also felt the same way.
It just didn't happen.
It was all there in the 9th, but it didn't happen. It didn't happen. For a second straight night, Kerry Wood was terrible, but then he was great, gutty, gritty, moxie-driven, or whatever. I guess.
At the end of the night, its just another 6-5 game, and we get ready for the next one.
The good news is that the Royals have the best pitcher on the planet taking the ball tomorrow afternoon.
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Can one of the stat guru's here
tell us what our batting average is as a team with the bases loaded?
And maybe how many RBI’s we’ve had in those situations…I can’t be pretty…
I've got crazy flipper fingers!
royals with bases loaded...
in 34 PAs prior to this game
.194/.250/.323 with 20 runs scored…
that is the lowest OPS in the AL with the bases loaded
Fail list::
Coco misses cutoff man – 1 run
Aviles boots double play – 1 run
Teahen fails to put ball in play with runner at 3rd <2 outs – 1 run
Jamey Wright walkks in run on 4 pitches – 1 run
Umpire rules HBP on foul ball
Trey Hillman inexplicably allows Sydney Ponson to pitch during tie game: 1 run
What am I missing?
realistically speaking
DDJ
could have taken a HBP for the team and tied it up in the 9th…maybe that’s splitting hairs.
I've got crazy flipper fingers!
Anyone care to make a list like this for the Indians?
by sterlingice on May 20, 2009 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions
it would be even longer
the point is, the indians are on pace to lose 100 games, we’re supposedly competing for the division. losing this game, in this fashion is totally unacceptable and was a total giveaway.
realistically speaking
But so was winning last night
the baseball gods giveth and the baseball gods taketh away
I've got crazy flipper fingers!
by labbadabba on May 20, 2009 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
the point is, we just pissed away everything we did good last night
by shit today. obviously, you’re not going to win every game but you need to win every game you should win + some you shouldn’t to win the division.
realistically speaking
The thing is
is that we didn’t do that much good last night either. We had a good inning at the right time but the rest of the game was pretty hacktastic and overall pretty ugly.
Tonight was just more of the same…
I've got crazy flipper fingers!
well, then maybe that's my real point
that this team still is playing poor baseball and tonight was just another shining example. i think my negativity is being fueled by watching the tigers play, and realizing just how much better they are than this team
realistically speaking
No, you need to win a set number of games
It doesn’t matter who you beat. Sometimes you beat the best team in baseball, sometimes you lose to the worst. The difference is you win 2 of 3 from the worst and at least 1 from the best and then you go from there. With two such awful played eight inning games, we should be happy they got one, and have the chance to win the series tomorrow.
"It’s not about the guacamole itself," Greinke said. "I just don’t want to let them win."
by Joseph Landis on May 20, 2009 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know if the move to ponson was that bad?
other than going to cruz, which would never happen, I don’t see many clear cut better options
if you're going to replace him with tejeda
why not put tejeda in in the first place. i don’t get it
realistically speaking
prob looking for a dp grounder
thus the reason for Sidney……..who actually did get that dp ball until Aviles screwed it up
by Fernando Vina School of Linguistics on May 21, 2009 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Again, I posted in before the 7th- dang, let me go dig that up...
“Without Soria, I’m not nearly as confident that we can just go whoever-Cruz-Soria. That means we have to get 2 bridge innings to Cruz and I’m not sure 85 pitch Gil or 3rd/4th reliever is better. Tho, we probably won’t need the pen much tomorrow”
by sterlingice on May 20, 2009 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions
So, yeah, what it says is that I wasn't sure what the answer was at the time
Anyone else have theories?
by sterlingice on May 20, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Sometimes you just don't have enough good guys out there to get it done
by sterlingice on May 20, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but isn't that the problem with people falling in love with
Wright/Tejada/HoRam/Farnsworth/Mahay last year/etc
Eventually the law of averages catches up with guys who have significant flaws in their game.
I know the converse to this is that you can’t run out a team of superstar relievers. Hell, the Yankees even tried to spend their way into a flawless bullpen in the late 90s and it backfired (except for the freakish Rivera).
And the corollary to that which fans often forget is that if you overwork those elite guys (Soria, Cruz in our case) then they get hurt and are no longer elite.
So, again, I go back to the “I don’t know what the answer was tonight” other than we rolled the dice with our middle inning guys and it came up snake eyes. Sometimes that happens because we have players who can’t always get it done. You just try to rig the dice so it doesn’t happen as often or at least just don’t drop dice already on 1’s straight down onto the table (see the case of Farnsworth vs Thome)
by sterlingice on May 21, 2009 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Cruz is good
he isn’t elite
Soria is the only “elite” reliever left on the team at the moment. Cruz is good… Rosa might be really good.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on May 21, 2009 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions
do't know how often the stats are updated
his ERA his horrible, but his fIP and tRA are both decent. Did he give up a home run tonight? If so, it’s his first of the season.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on May 21, 2009 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Dear God the sky is falling again
"It’s not about the guacamole itself," Greinke said. "I just don’t want to let them win."
That game sucks
should be goin for the sweep tomorrow. Oh well just need to win tomorrow and hope Detroit starts fallin(don’t see that).
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
Verlander can't pitch every game, I guess
we just hope that Edwin Jackson turns back into Edwin Jackson
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on May 20, 2009 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions
And/or Dontrelle Willis turns back into Dontrelle Willis, circa 2007-2008
by sterlingice on May 21, 2009 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions
or simpy the Willis of the start before this last one
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on May 21, 2009 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions
See... Francour is right!
Walks are meaningless!
by XBic on May 20, 2009 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Because we can't hit.
It’s nice that we have more patience this year, but it’s too bad we still can’t hit.
by hippdoghipp on May 21, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
DFA Pontoon
There has to be SOMEONE in the minor leagues who can come up and be our last bullpen option.
- W. Bloomquist homered to deep center
- P. Earth explodes
Or Carlos Rosa could com in and be the #2 guy right now
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on May 21, 2009 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions
His stats look
terrible right now. I haven’t looked in a day or so but he doesn’t seem to be pitching very effectively.
by gordonrules on May 21, 2009 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions
hmmm
I hadn’t looked in the minors all season. I’d just been thinking about him before the season as potential bullpen flamethrower a la RamRod last season.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on May 21, 2009 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions
I just looked them up
0-4 6.64ERA 12games 20.1 IP 23 H 7BB 24K 1.31 GO/AO league hitting 284 against him. Last game he had an ERA of 36 I believe so that kind of f’d up the ERA.
by gordonrules on May 21, 2009 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions
(To play Devil's Advocate)
Right behind our second ace Luke Hochevar?
by sterlingice on May 21, 2009 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions
went to the game
very fun but also very frustrating. there were numerous giveaways by the royals. these are the same types of things we were doing during the losing streak but overcoming them. i know that no team is going to play flawless but we really make way too many mistakes to consistently win at the pace necessary to win the division.
i will say though, it does seem like almost every time we make a mistake the other team jumps on it. you would think that those would average out somewhat over the course of the year.
I hereby resign from this post.
by Home Run Tony Cogan on May 21, 2009 12:30 AM EDT reply actions
like last night?
Or in Minnesota?
Seriously, it’s not like it is a hard luck season…yet.
If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.
By the way.
what is our record in one run games now? It has to be abysmal.
realistically speaking
Ah, chilling.
From what I understand, record in one run games is not luck. Going to be very, very, very hard winning this division with that kind of record in one run games. Yuck.
realistically speaking
i think luck is a big part of it
royals were 20-18 in 1-run games last year & 21-22 in ’07, for whatever its worth
well shiiiiiiiiiii-oot
This is they way it goes sometimes. Ya have it the W in your sights and then the avalanche of bad takes over.
Just hope the Zackkkkkkkkk can put the W back.
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 21, 2009 12:22 PM EDT reply actions
I'm with devil_fingers -- Carlos Rosa Now!
Rosa is an example of why looking at ERA, especially in small sample sizes, is a bad idea. He had one miserable outing in his last game at — surprise, surprise — Colorado Springs, one of the PCL’s notorious Coors-like ballparks. His strikeout and walk rates are fine (10.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9), he is keeping the ball on the ground (50% GB rate), but he has been terribly unlucky on balls in play (.382 BABIP against a 12% LD rate). Aside from the unlucky BABIP, his rate stats are right in line with his career numbers. As a bonus, Rosa has shown little platoon split against left-handed hitters (maybe because he has a changeup to flash to lefties). Scouts have always liked him (especially as a reliever). His health has been the thing holding him back.
The Royals bullpen could use an arm who can miss some bats, limit walks, keep the ball on the ground, and keep left-handed hitters honest.
Carlos Rosa now; Carlos Rosa forever
Why Carlos Rosa should be in the Royals bullpen right now:
1. Excellent stuff
2. Good control
3. Good minor league performance in both 2008 and 2009
4. He’s likely better than multiple pitchers currently in the Royals bullpen.
I can’t think of a single good reason to not call him up. Does anyone have one?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 21, 2009 12:53 PM EDT reply actions
The Royals might lose Wright/Ponson/HoRam/Waechter!
That’s four reasons.
Oh yeah:
5. Omaha’s pitching is really struggling right now, they need Rosa.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on May 21, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Ramirez is not even getting grounders
When the one trick pony is not performing his one trick, it is time to put him out to pasture.
I’d hang tight with HoRam and his 123 tRA+ as a reliever.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 21, 2009 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
in 11 low-leverage innings against primarily left-handed batters
if his sinker is not sinking, it is not going to end well
I don't know what to expect from HoRam as a reliever going forward
But he has a very good tRA career track record as a reliever (of course this is mostly 2008 and 2009). I think his sinker actually is sinking and that’s why he’s been effective. I think his GB% and FB% will regress to his normal levels. As far as these appearances coming in low-leverage situations primarily against LH batters, well that is of course how he’s primarily going to be used. That’s his role and he’s handling it quite well.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 21, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
A 5th outfielder or 3rd catcher has more utility than a low-leverage LOOGY
In his 53 IP as a reliever, his K/BB is 1.3, his K/9 is 3.7, his BB/9 is 2.9, his HR/9 is 0.85, and his line against is 295/349/429 (virtually the same as his line against as a starter). B-R splits unfortunately do not provide FIP, but eyeballing it, his FIP would be close to his 4.72 ERA. Better pitchers will be put on waivers this summer.
But I am not going to argue if you prefer to dump Ponson before HoRam.
Again, just to play devil's advocate (not that I necessarily believe it all, but it makes for something to do before today's game)
1, 2, and 3 in the minors don’t necessarily translate to 4
I’m not saying he won’t be, but, again, how is this nothing more than backup QB syndrome: “he has to be better than what we have, so let’s try the new guy”. Actually, no, he doesn’t have to be- see Hochevar, Luke.
So, what’s the roster move to get Rosa up here? We’re already running 13 bats and 12 arms so we can’t send a bat down. Hell, with Hillman’s proclivity to pinch run/pinch hit/defensive sub- it’s probably better to go 14/11 but I know you just don’t do that in this day and age in the AL.
That leaves pitchers. I guess we could just option Luke back but what does he have left to prove in AAA? And that thrusts Ponson back into the starting rotation. So, let’s take that off the table. Here’s the bullpen:
J. Cruz
K. Farnsworth
R. Tejeda
S. Ponson
R. Mahay
H. Ramírez
J. Wright
It’s not going to be Cruz, Farnsworth, or Mahay. HoRam and Wright are useful parts in the correct roles- or do you drop one of them? Tejada has options but he’s pitched well.
Then we talk about DFA’ing Ponson as a kneejerk to last night and other parts of the season. Hell, I don’t know if he’s all that useful in his current role. But let’s be honest he’s there for when, not if, one of our starters gets hurt. Hell, or if Hochevar or Bannister revert to Chris George “I can’t even make it 3 IP without having to go to the pen down 9-0 unpitchable”, at least he’s there as Mr “6 IP 4/5 R” security blanket.
Someone’s going to get hurt and is bringing up Rosa to take that spot in the pen give more improvement than the drop down from Ponson to whoever is starter #7 right now, be it HoRam, Ducky, etc?
Tejeda doesn't have options
Wright has pitched well, but guys like him are a dime a dozen.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on May 21, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
1, 2, and 3 in the minors don’t necessarily translate to 4
If you’re saying that success in the majors for him is anything but certain, you are definitely correct. That is true of every prospect. But when you’ve got some unimpressive shit on the major league team, it makes sense to try the guy who has shown good stuff, control and results in the minors.
I’m not saying he won’t be, but, again, how is this nothing more than backup QB syndrome: "he has to be better than what we have, so let’s try the new guy". Actually, no, he doesn’t have to be- see Hochevar, Luke.
This is different from backup QB syndrome because we have good reason to believe that Rosa will be: 1) good in the majors, and 2) better than some of the Royals current relievers. Stuff, control and minor league track record don’t guarantee anything, but they mean something.
So, what’s the roster move to get Rosa up here?
DFA Ponson.
Then we talk about DFA’ing Ponson as a kneejerk to last night and other parts of the season.
No, it’s not a “kneejerk” to anything. It’s about recognizing that he’s a so-so pitcher at best. He’s a veteran who adds some SP depth, but no better than someone like Duckworth. Depth is useful, but having a guy for depth shouldn’t keep you from a potential genuine bullpen upgrade. A below average veteran journeyman like Ponson shouldn’t be blocking a real prospect with talent. He wasn’t doing that early in the season when he was starting. He is doing that now.
But let’s be honest he’s there for when, not if, one of our starters gets hurt.
There are multiple pieces of Ponson-like below average, 5.00 FIP-ish pitching.
Someone’s going to get hurt and is bringing up Rosa to take that spot in the pen give more improvement than the drop down from Ponson to whoever is starter #7 right now, be it HoRam, Ducky, etc?
Yes. Ponson isn’t even better than Ducky. Look at the stats. Look at the projections. Ponson is extremely replaceable by Ducky, by Rosa as a starter, by Tejeda, etc.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 21, 2009 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Rosa has a better skills set than most of the relievers currently in the Royals pen
Those skills come with him to the major leagues.
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