Should DM blow this team up?

by Home Run Tony Cogan on May 23, 2009 11:27 PM EDT

I am readily going to admit, I am really pissed, disappointed, and despondent, whatever you want to call it, after today's game. However, I went on a long run today during and after the game and really thought about where this team is at and where we are headed, not just because of the current stretch of poor play but overall as an organization. So, although I don’t expect many people will agree with the question, I do think the question should be asked. Keep in mind, I still think this team could approach .500 this year. I realize that the current run that the team is on is just a cold streak that will turn around and that we’ll probably have some real good runs this year.

However, I’ve had quite some time to think about it and am thinking that it might be time to dismantle the current team we have and start over. I am not saying that this is going to happen, nor necessarily saying that it should happen (although I’m leaning towards yes).

Craziness? Perhaps. Playing devil’s advocate for a moment, you’ll note the following:

We are in 2nd place in our division;
We are one game under .500;
At this point in the year, we are still in the race;
We have some of the best pitching in baseball.

While these are all very true points, let me bring up these counterpoints:

Before this season started, the team projection was for around 75 wins or so (BP)
This team was projected to struggle (and indeed has struggled) to score runs (currently 17th in OPS-actually not as bad as I would have thought);
This team was projected to struggle (and indeed has struggled) defensively (currently 20th in UZR).

Since a very promising start that was despite several instances of poor play, the team has fallen off of a cliff of late, going 3-11, ranking 21st in OPS (sorry, I couldn’t find UZR for a specific time period). However, in addition to that, there have been any numbers of instances of poor fundamentals that don’t necessarily show up in the stats. Things like missed cutoff men, dropped fly balls, and baserunning mistakes.

This got me to thinking, that this team is indeed probably going to end up somewhere around it’s projection, 75 wins (maybe worse – I would be happy to wager $25 to one of several charities on I Need Esteban’s behalf that they will play at a 100 loss pace for the rest of the year. Let me be clear, I am NOT saying they will lose 100, but from this point on that they will play at a 38.2% clip, which works out to 46 more wins, putting them at 67-95). So, this team wins 75-80 games this year as currently constructed, with a payroll in excess of $70 million. I would be willing to bet that there will not be significant additions to the payroll prior to next season, so factoring arbitration awards, losing guys like Mahay and Yabuta, that this team will essentially have to stand pat for 2010.

So the question is, then as currently constructed, what is it that we see out of this team that convinces us that we have nearly enough players on the roster to compete for a division title or wildcard berth? Where on this team are the stars, the "go-to" guys that have enough overall talent to get us to where we all want to go? I don’t know if there are enough.

Having said that, I think that it might be wiser for this team in the long run to trade several players now and really stock the farm system with some significant talent. Who might those players be? If I were in favor of such a plan, I would definitely trade Meche, Soria, and Butler. I think these three players could net us some significant prospects in trade. I would also consider trading several other players if the right deal could be had, including Gordon, DeJesus, Teahen and Crisp, although the former two might not net much in return because of injuries or performance. Others like Jacobs and Guillen aren’t going to get us anything in value, although I would be happy to unload them as well. What some of these moves would do is bring back some significant prospects while at the same time providing some payroll space to go get an impact player or two.

Let’s say, for example, we were to trade Meche, Soria, Butler, Olivo/Buck and DeJesus. That would lop off about $18 million from the current payroll while presumably bringing us some potential impact prospects. That $16 million could be used to bring in a significant bat in left such as Jason Bay or Matt Holliday and more prospects to possibly package for someone like Alcides Escobar or Reid Brignac.

I’m not saying that we should trade all of these players; I’m not looking to turn this team into a laughingstock over the next two years. What I am saying, however is that the combination of current major-league talent and players in AA/AAA are not going to be enough to get us into contention IMO, and that I don’t think the payroll is going to go up enough to significantly improve the team to that level. So, what I would consider is having us take one step back in order to move two steps forward.

As much as DM has done to improve the farm system, in reality it is still not anywhere near where it needs to be, especially at the upper levels, to build a consistent winning ballclub. The current roster is poorly constructed, with a glut of DH types and suboptimal defensive players. Bringing in another RF, for example, isn’t going to work, because we’ve already got one that we’re paying $12 million/year. Sure, we could just release him, but then who are we going to put in his place that’s going to be an upgrade? We could play him at DH, then what do you do with the other DH on the roster? We could send Aviles down and play Bloomquist, but does anyone think he’s a SS on a contending team? He’s just another Ross Gload at a different position. Can we go out and sign a SS in free agency? Not with the payroll already over $70 million and nowhere to cut. And so on.

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Comments

In short: no

In Long: noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Quite simply because this team is going to blow itself up after 2010, which when you look at the contracts that moore has given out, seems to be the plan.
I mean guillen, farnsworth, Gload(ugh), mahay, crisp, dejesus, Teahen, Jacobs, Buck, Olivo, and probably a couple of bullpen guys I’m forgetting, all have their contracts run out or enter their post arbitration years after next season.
Which means the Royals need people from inside the organization to fill those holes, guys like Moosetacos, Hosmer, B. Pena(I hope) Kila, Cortes, Rosa, mongomery, melville, and hopefully a few others (like Giovotella) will hopefully be ready tehn

This is not unlike what the braves did right before they went on their big postseason run. They sign a bunch of servicable vets to contracts that expired right as a large number of prospects came up, they then resigned a few select guys and let the rest go to make room for the youngsters.

So no moore shouldnt blow the team up because the team is already a walking time bomb.

I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT

by RoyalPug on May 24, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

that's part of my point

who in the organization are going to be good enough to fill in? most of those players are far enough away that we have no idea what they’re going to do. several of the players you named (Kila, Pena, Rosa) are nothing more than major-league filler IMO. where are the longorias, brauns, zimmermans, pedroias in our organization? in short, we don’t have any. hosmer and moose are at least two years away, and then you’re starting off by counting on them to carry the load for the whole team? that’s part of what’s gotten us in trouble with butler and gordon. and what if hosmer and/or moose turn out to be gordon/butler v2.0? serviceable players, but not the absolute studs you need?

then you’ve pissed away the entire meche contract with nothing to show for it, zack’s contract is near completion, and there’s really no studs (save for possibly cortes, but even he’s just a borderline top 100 prospect) on the pitching side of the ledger. i know that we all love our prospects, but let’s look at the top 100 guys and we’ve got 3-that’s not going to get it done. this organization has taken strides to improve the minor leagues, but there is still a LONG way to go. we need to have twice that many top 100 prospects in our system, plus another several on the fringes of the top 100, if we’re going to really build a championship team from within. otherwise, we’re going to be plugging holes here and there trying to patch a .500 team together. so, maybe we take a hit now, but we further stock the farm system and have some real firepower to go to war with in 2010-2011.

if you were to trade meche, soria, olivo and butler, you’ve got cortes to put in the rotation for next year, you find a closer or keep cruz, and you put kaaihue or shealy at first, and pena backs up at catcher. the team still has greinke, bannister and davies pitching and cruz closes for the rest of the year. so, maybe we’re a little worse in 2009 but we’re still at least respectable.

then on top of it, you’ve got several prospects in your organization plus $16-$18 million to play with for 2010 to bring in a complete player at SS or LF. then, for 2011, guillen’s albatross of a contract comes off the books, and you’ve got that much more money to play with plus several prospects ready to really contribute or to use in trades.

I hereby resign from this post.

by Home Run Tony Cogan on May 24, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions

This is a very good response

You are exactly right. Moore’s moves all expire at the same time. He knows that it is HARD to get free agents to sign in Kansas City. So when one does sign with us, we overpay for two things.

1). It expands the payroll for the future. We are getting tightpockets to loosen up now rather than in the future.

2). We get in a guy for two or three years that is “serviceable” to sell tickets and keep the team dream alive.

Think of it as “cap room”. We maxed out our salary camp this year. This is awesome because then the payroll has $$millions$$ of room to sign key FAs to help the younger guys get going. The “bad” contracts expire leaving money to get Torii Hunter-type players at that time. At the same time, we are filling needs from within. Then we just pick and choose who is best for the team.

GMDM takes some heat now in the end of the honeymoon stage and becomes the savior to the franchise in a few years. It seems to be a good business plan.

The 2009 Official You Got Rocked by the Royals and Sent to the Minors List
1. Josh Rupe TEX April 17
2. David Purcey TOR May 1
3. Brian Burres TOR May 1
4. Bryan Bullington TOR May 1

by 306008 on May 24, 2009 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions

torii hunter types?

please god no

Fire Hillman

by billybeingbilly on May 24, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions

you know me, I'm all about torii hunter types

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on May 24, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions

No

This seems like a huge overreaction to a slump. The MLB season is long and it is going to be made up of many good stretches and bad stretches for every team (and particularly for a .500ish team). When the team is in a good stretch, it’s an overreaction to talk about how we’re going to cruise to the playoffs. When the team is in a bad stretch, it’s an overreaction to talk about how the team should be blown up.

I’m in favor of any trade that makes the team better. But a fire sale makes no sense. First, this team doesn’t need to be clear cut and rebuilt from scratch. Second, if the idea is about freeing up money to be used on the FA market, is that the best way to use our resources? Has DM shown himself to be good at spending money on FA’s? In short, given DM’s abilities, I’d rather have the talent then trade away the talent, gambling that Moore will spend the savings wisely.

Stay the course. This is a .500ish team. This team is still on pace to contend (with this core of players) in 2010.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on May 24, 2009 7:35 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs

good post NY

The 2009 Official You Got Rocked by the Royals and Sent to the Minors List
1. Josh Rupe TEX April 17
2. David Purcey TOR May 1
3. Brian Burres TOR May 1
4. Bryan Bullington TOR May 1

by 306008 on May 24, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm with NY

It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.

by Juancho on May 25, 2009 3:29 AM EDT up reply actions

Tony, every now and then, you go off the deep end. This is one of those times.

Found this in your fanshot of the same title:

probably won’t lose 100 because we’ve already got 21 wins, but let me put it this way- will we play at a 100-loss pace the rest of the year? 48-70 would put us at 70 wins for the year. does anyone think 70 wins is an unreasonable expectation for this team?

Will the Royals play at a 100-loss pace the rest of the year? Of course not. Is 70 wins an unreasonable expectation for this team? Of course that’s unreasonable. For some odd reason, you appear to see everything good that the Royals do as an aberration and everything bad is the real deal. According to you, the Royals Sept. 2008 was a fluke, but their worst month of the season was apparently the genuine article. Apparently you must also be thinking that the Royals winning stretches this season a fluke but the current stretch of losing is the team’s true talent level. I don’t know what odd bit of psychology leads you to jump to these conclusions and to abandon the team from time to time, but let’s put psychology to the side.

The best way to evaluate a team is to look at large sample sizes to see the overall picture. To evaluate the 2008 team, you can’t just look at May or September. You should look at the whole team, which won 75 games. And that was a meaningful 75 wins, as can be seen by the team’s Second Order Wins (75) and Third Order Wins (76). And there’s no good reason to believe that the 2009 team is worse than the 2008 team. There wasn’t good reason to believe it before the season started and even less reason to believe it now. The team for the season is one game under .500 with a positive run differential. The pitching has been great and the hitting has been poor. That’s the kind of thing that leads to about a .500 record.

If you’d like to make a bet about the Royals playing at a 100-loss pace for the rest of the season, I’m game. If the Royals played at that pace for the remainder of the season, they would win 66.5 games. I think the odds that the Royals win total ends up starting with “6” is much less than 1%. But I think you should get a few nights sleep before you take the bet. I hope your “100-loss pace” nonsense was the product of gamethread insanity. I’m sure that on further reflection you’ll see that it was an overreaction.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on May 24, 2009 7:59 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

even after sleeping on it,

i think my basic point was that the upside of this team and this organization at this point isn’t enough IMO to get where we need to go. as much as DM has done to improve the farm system, it’s just not there yet. so, are we going to be in this endless loop of medicority?

Tony, every now and then you go off the deep end. This is one of those times. For some odd reason, you appear to see everything good that the Royals do as an aberration and everything bad is the real deal. According to you, the Royals Sept. 2008 was a fluke, but their worst month of the season was apparently the genuine article. Apparently you must also be thinking that the Royals winning stretches this season a fluke but the current stretch of losing is the team’s true talent level. I don’t know what odd bit of psychology leads you to jump to these conclusions and to abandon the team from time to time, but let’s put psychology to the side.

Therapy has cured much of it, but it’s a process. Notice that I haven’t resigned this year :-)

I hereby resign from this post.

by Home Run Tony Cogan on May 24, 2009 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Notice that I haven’t resigned this year

Yeah, but does that mean you haven’t “resigned” as in “left your post as a Royals fan” or that you haven’t “resigned,” as in your going to wait out the year and see which team to go with as a Free Agent fan in the offseason?

/dorky joke

[Yes, I know the latter is “re-signed”]

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on May 24, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions

i think my basic point was that the upside of this team and this organization at this point isn’t enough IMO to get where we need to go

The Royals have a good core on the major league team and lots of good prospects. Few of the prospects are close to the majors, but there’s a hell of a lot of talent in the minor league system. That’s a lot of upside.

Therapy has cured much of it, but it’s a process. Notice that I haven’t resigned this year :-)

That is definitely progress. I appreciated that this fanpost was about how to improve the team, rather than just quitting on it.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on May 24, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions

That's what watching this team has done to his soul.

As humans, we are to afraid to open up because we don’t want to get hurt again. Because we’ve made the mistake before. I think there are some songs about this….

The 2009 Official You Got Rocked by the Royals and Sent to the Minors List
1. Josh Rupe TEX April 17
2. David Purcey TOR May 1
3. Brian Burres TOR May 1
4. Bryan Bullington TOR May 1

by 306008 on May 24, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions

I'll bet anyone as much money as they want that this doesn't happen:

they would win 66.5 games

If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.

by Warden11 on May 24, 2009 10:17 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

get in the line..........

looks like you’re behind I need more Esteban, myself, NYRoyal, and now you….

Mr. Duvall: Now, I'm not gonna do that because we've already paid the DJ, but don't think I'm not taking this book seriously. Coach Carr has fled school property. Ms. Norbury has been accused of selling drugs. Now what the young ladies in this grade need is an attitude makeover. And you're going to get it, right now. I don't care how long it takes. I will keep you here all night.
Joan the Secretary: We can't keep them past four.
Mr. Duvall: I will keep you here until four.

by Fernando Vina School of Linguistics on May 24, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions

he's behind himself?

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on May 24, 2009 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions

good call...

self-fail.

by Fernando Vina School of Linguistics on May 25, 2009 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions

maybe not

maybe Warden is a scientologist

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on May 25, 2009 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Um, no.

If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.

by Warden11 on May 25, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions

You Mean You

Can’t be 3 feet behind your head? You’re just not even trying. Try moving an ashtray by talking to it first.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on May 25, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions

get your TRs in

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on May 25, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions

I have been openly critical of this team this season.....

But after I slept on it I feel that this team is headed in the right direction. While I dont know a ton about the farm system, my gut feeling says things are gonna be ok but just not overnight. As a reasonably new hardcore royals fan(as well as being extremely impatient by nature) it has taken me time to understand that wins and losses game to game sometimes arent any indication about whats good/bad for the royals. Immediate success would give everyone here smiles ear to ear. However, thats just not the way it works in baseball and it has taken me a while to understand that. Am I harsh during game threads? Absolutely, because that is my “heat of the moment”, impatient reaction. I also have a tough time with this 24 innings scoreless thing. Even Mr. Patience himself would have a coronary with that. Furthermore, you and I have exchanged some comments thru certain threads and I appreciate where you come from. Also, I will not judge this post as an overreaction or frustration. I will see as you proposing an idea(albeit bold and a bit outlandish :) )that you think could benefit the royals. With that being said, I dont think that this team should be blown up AT ALL. The points made above are good ones and I believe the future for this team is already put in place. A “fire sale” would only complicate the future and discourage and dishearten a fan base that has been huge this year. Butts in the seats this year and in the future are going to be a big part for this team and the teams in the futures success.

by 2LegittoShit on May 24, 2009 1:16 PM EDT reply actions

You Are Learning

Well, Grasshopper. I went through the pain of seeing the A’s just starting to develop the nucleus of the early 70’s team team that won 3 Series in a row only to have them move to Oakland before it happened. Patience. I don’t think the Royals are going to leave KC before they win another Series.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on May 24, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

yeah. what he said.

Yeah? From what I hear, you couldn't hit water if you fell out of a f@#%ing boat.

by BillyMojo on May 26, 2009 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Like I said in the game thread

thta this issue was originally discussed, I think this is an overreaction to a rough stretch. It’s not even June yet. Don’t really have much else to say about it but that.

by I need more Esteban on May 25, 2009 10:41 AM EDT reply actions

Hope this is on-topic

All I have to say on this issue is that looking at the big picture, long-term, I hope Moore decides to find out what Kila can do on an every day basis in the big leagues at some point. If the team falls out of the race this season, then it probably should occur the 2nd half this year – if they stay in contention, then certainly it needs to happen next season. Trading Jacobs at the appropriate time would be my solution – ideally he hits another 30 bombs or so this season and has some real trade value. It would take a lot of courage to trade Butler, because there would be a chance that move would haunt the team for a decade. Personally, I wouldn’t move Butler.

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on May 26, 2009 4:38 PM EDT reply actions

This would be a good time to sell high on Jacobs

And by “this” being a good time, I mean sometime between now and the trading deadline. He’s putting up good numbers and showing real power. And he’s cheap for this season and cheaper than market rate for the next two seasons. He’s arguably at or near his peak value. Trading Butler or Kila at this point would be selling low (and too early).

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on May 26, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree about Butler or Kila

I wonder what Moore will do. Keep in mind that Jacobs only go the Marlins Leo Nunez.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on May 26, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd bet a lot of money that Moore doesn't trade Jacobs

I think he’ll keep him for the next two years, paying him arbitration money. And I don’t think the haul for Jacobs would be huge. But if he has another 30-HR season (or continues to be on pace for one — he’s currently on pace for 32.4 HR) with 90+ RBI and does so in the AL, I think his stock will go up (and it is already up from what it was a couple months ago. Several teams would like to have a .260/.330/.500 first baseman with 30+ HR and 90+ RBI, who has 2+ cheapish years of team control, regardless of his speed or defense. If he still looks like that in July, what would other teams give for him? I don’t know. But more than Leo Nunez.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on May 26, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah and all that when he's getting

.120/.120/.120 against LHP’s

Yeah? From what I hear, you couldn't hit water if you fell out of a f@#%ing boat.

by BillyMojo on May 26, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions

here's what I think

it all makes perfect sense to just leave it alone all year this season, and let those prospects develop completely. It may sound just ‘too simple’ but here it is:

Teahan-Gordon-Butler-DDJ are finishing ‘development’ so they will be the ‘vets’ to show Moose-Tacos and Hosmer and KillerKila and the like “how to get it done” but unfortunately it probably won’t happen before 2012 season.

There have to have been bets hedged on what is going to happen in the future two years to either Gordon-Butler-Teahan. Either one (or hopefully ALL) mature and just start burning shit up; or one or more of them turn into a complete bust. (throw a link back to my post about “breakout players”) Someone is going to have to move to get the kids up here, but from what I read on here, it doesn’t look to me like any of the “top prospects” will completely be ready to come up the second half of this season.

My call before I get jumped on, is that Teahan will stay the Teahan we already know. He’s not going to break out. Butler looks like he is breaking out right now. Alex could go either way. DDJ stays being DDJ, he is what he is — smiling all the time, and he’ll eventually come around, but if that doesn’t happen, he’s done after this year. (When is his contract up and what kind of AA prospects and draft choices could we get for DeJesus and/or Teahan this winter if he stinks up the rest of the season?)

Possibly in 2012 we could have 3 ROY candidates on the roster all in the same year; with ZacKKKKKKKK starting in his (last?) contract season, Brayan Pena catching every other pitcher (yeah we keep Olivo as the personal catcher and spot an out several times since he hits like a pitcher but that’s okay we spot the entire AL the fact that we can beat them even without a true AL batting lineup) Moosetaco’s at 3B, Butler in the third year of a perennial .320+ 20-some HR 100 RBI guy, in a wierd 3-way platoon with Kila and Alex Gordon at 1B. Alex gets some time at 3B as well, and Moose turns out to be a power-hitting too-big too-slow shortstop but we spot the other teams those runs because he makes up for them offensively… and where is Hosmer?

anyway when I preview this post I see how ridiculous it looks. I’m just not overly excited and still think that 81-81 for this season would be something to be proud of.

What are we going to do? Hell I don’t know.

I hope we play better than .500 ball for the season and JoGui actually spanks the ball when it gets hot outside, and Jacobs just barely misses the Balboni record but gets like 35 for the season and there’s enough value to move both of them.

I don’t think we’re gonna get much for John Buck even though his character is the kind I like, his abilities are less than what we need from him.

Keep Coco until he expires.

Pitching is too volatile to predict. I’ll stop now because I’ve started to ramble.

Yeah? From what I hear, you couldn't hit water if you fell out of a f@#%ing boat.

by BillyMojo on May 26, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions

KC Fan therapy

People, baseball is by nature a sport with lots of time for breathing. So all you Royals fan take a breath. The Royals have what it takes to go the distance. The outstanding bullpen and focus on the play at hand is the way to win championships. Penants are won…ONE play at a time. Improving the basics, lower the errors, pitch smart. And always know your opponents weak spots. Baseball is a game of skill, execution and as the BIG Bam said…Its about FUN.

glamma

by baseballglamma on May 26, 2009 7:16 PM EDT reply actions