More Thoughts on Davies

by Gopherballs on May 29, 2009 3:03 PM EDT Comment 3 comments

Davies 2009 (through May 27 start):

4.94 FIP
6.33 K/9, 3.86 BB/9, 1.64 K/BB, 8.9% swinging strike rate
1.23 HR/9, 11.8% HR/FB
17.4% LD%, 44.4% GB%, 288 BABIP

The K/BB is almost exactly his 2008 1.65 K/BB, so he has added a few strikeouts at the expense of a proportional number of walks. A good sign is that his swinging strike rate is up almost a 1% from 8.0% in 2008. As expected, his HR/FB rose from an unsustainable 6.7% in 2008 to a tick above average in 2009. He has also turned about 5% of batted balls from line drives (21.6% LD% 2008) into groundballs (38.8% GB% 2008).

Going from a flyball pitcher to a neutral pitcher helps, but Davies needs to push his K/BB closer to 2.0 to become an effective middle of the rotation starter.

There also seems to be a commonality between the teams from last September and his first start this year when Davies was dominant -- he faced the Mariners, White Sox, Twins, and White Sox again -- all teams that generally employ an aggressive approach at the plate and like to swing at pitches out of the zone. On the other hand, he tends to have mixed results against teams with better patience and discipline.

Davies for now is an adequate back of the rotation starter who still has some work to do to become a middle of the rotation starter. He has the raw tools to work with, but it will not come automatically. If it does not happen, he probably could become a pretty decent reliever who could go multiple innings -- relievers usually add velocity and control is not as important. With Cortes battling his own control problems on a second tour of duty in AA, the Royals do not have any major league ready pitching prospects to push anyone out of the rotation. But the clock is still ticking on Davies, as he will already be in his second year of salary arbitration this offseason, when teams start having to pay starters real money. He has come a long ways from 2006 and 2007 when he was one of the worst starters in baseball, but the Royals will have a tough call in the not-so-distant future if Davies does not show more improvement.

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Good post and rec'd

The mysteries of the arb process still elude me — how do you judge a second year SP’s award?

When I averaged PECOTA, CHONE, and ZiPS and used BP’s playing time projections, Davies projected as a 1 WAR pitcher. I’d say that ‘s a #4 starter at best. If that’s going to be his performance as a starter going foward, then next season he’d be worth about $5M on the FA market (hard to judge given this past offseason). So, in his second year of arb (on the 40/60/80 assumption), he’d should get $3M.

Every place figures WAR a bit differently. I figured things in a way closer to FanGraphs, except I use different replacement levels for AL and NL and Pythagenpat and whatnot.

Here are some WAR numbers using different methods for Davies 2007-2008:. I’ll start with my numbers, then Rally’s (we both use databases that aren’t compiled until the end of the year), then FanGraphs (FIP) and Stat Corner (tRA) for 2007-2009 so far, just as some additional information. All figures are park-adjusted.

d_f FIP:
2007: 0.3 (total KCA and ATL)
2008: 1.5

d_f Baseruns-FIP:
2007: 0.5
2008: 1.8

Rally (RA adjusted for quality of defense)
2007: -1.6
2008: 1.7

FanGraphs:
2007: 0.2
2008: 1.8
2009: 0.6

Stat Corner:
2007: -0.3
2008: 1.0
2009: 0.2

make of that what you will…

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 28, 2009 2:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Arbitration

It basically boils down to traditional stats for previous two years, salaries of comparable players at the same position and service time, and prior salary. Based on the salary structure, middling starters get paid more than good relievers. Even if his 2009 stats stay about the same for the rest of the year, he is still looking at a decent raise, given that he plays a premium position (starting pitcher), he had good traditional stats last year, and there are comps like Claudio Vargas out there who as a player with four years of service time got $3.6 million after posting two previous seasons with ERAs of 4.83 and 5.09.

The dollar per WAR is a tough nut to crack right now — it may be back closer to ~$4 million, which would be around what Davies could get in arbitration. If you think he is a 1 WAR pitcher going forward, his break even point in terms of value is probably 2010. So unless he really takes a turn for the worst this year, I would expect the team to offer him arbitration after this year as long as there is room in the budget (but Moore probably gives it some thought before doing so). Next year, however, might be the really hard decision.

by Gopherballs on May 28, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nice post

I pretty much agree that Davies’ upside is a mid-rotation start, which he has shown the ability to reach. As it is, he’s pitched more a weak 4 or good 5 so far this year.

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on May 28, 2009 8:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs