Top MLB pitchers by WAR
- Zack Greinke 2.0
- Dan Haren 1.7
- Gil Meche 1.5
- Javier Vazquez 1.5
- Tim Lincecum 1.4
almost 3 years ago
Scott McKinney
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Wow...Gil being that high really shocks me....
2 WAR already for Zack?….that puts his ‘value’ at close to $10 million already, doesnt it?
Fire Hillman
Per Fangraphs, Greinke's 2.0 WAR is equivalent to $9.1M
And Meche’s WAR is so high because his FIP is so low. Lots of K’s, few walks and very few HR’s = an excellent FIP.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
this is 100% hindsight....
and i was a fan of the hochevar pick at the time, but how awesome would it be to have Lincecum as well?
Fire Hillman
Add Lincecum and Wieters and subtract Hochevar and Moustakas and the Royals are almost certainly a 2009 playoff team
(and a force in the division for years to come)
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
the better question is....
would Weiters be sitting on Omaha until mid may?
Fire Hillman
by billybeingbilly on May 4, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Could be
Seems like just about every team is playing that game nowadays, including the Orioles with Wieters. BTW, I just checked his AAA numbers from this season. Did you know that he’s hitting .270/.373/.365? That’s news to me. I don’t know how meaningful that is, but maybe he isn’t quite ready for the majors. Don’t know.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
And for the hell of it, I looked up David Price's stats too
5.38 FIP
10.2 K/9
4.1 BB/9
2.0 HR/9
37.2% GB%
32.6% FB%
27.6% LD%
He’s had some bad HR/FB luck, but he’s giving up more than his share of flyballs and that LD% is huge. When you’re giving up a good deal of walks and line drives, that’s not very impressive.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I gotta wonder if some of that is attributable to being pissed about going to AAA
He obviously wasn’t happy about it.
I don't know
If he was pissed, then he’s either an idiot or a narcissist. He’s still a kid and has very little minor league experience. If you think you should be in the majors, then show it on the field by dominating AAA competition. Luke Hochevar gets it.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2009 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions
you cant help but be pissed off....
when you know you’re one of the top 25 players in the organization, you were a crucial part of their late season/playoff success and you’re still getting sent down to the minors….oh, and it probably means absolutely nothing how he performs down there…he’s coming up on the arb date
Fire Hillman
by billybeingbilly on May 5, 2009 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions
you cant help but be pissed off….
when you know you’re one of the top 25 players in the organization, you were a crucial part of their late season/playoff success and you’re still getting sent down to the minors
I don’t know, you don’t know and Price doesn’t know if he’s one of the 25 best players for the major league team this year. Is he ready to be a good pitcher in the major leagues this year? Maybe, but I don’t know. Lots of talented pitchers who eventually become good or even great aren’t yet ready at his age, with his amount of experience. And his success in the playoffs in very little action doesn’t tell us much. He may well be like Porcello in that he’s very talented, but not major league ready yet.
My point is that it’s not a slam dunk that Price is major league ready and given his little experience, he shouldn’t have thought that it was an insult for him to start the year in the minors. If so, that’s just ego talking.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 5, 2009 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions
how do we know if anyone is among the top 25 players on their team any year before the season starts? Hell, how do the cards know Pujols was one of their top 25? Oh, by looking at the stats and by watching him. No way can one look at Troy Percival and at David Price and conclude that Price is not the better pitcher.
They sent him down to hold off arbitration, which is 100% within their rights. If he wants to react to it by pouting, knowing there will be no repercussions b/c he’s going to come up to be the savior of a struggling team whenever the calendar says so, thats well within his rights too. Lots of players perform poorly when they’re at a level that they’re too good for. Look at Justin Upton’s 1st year in pro ball.
Fire Hillman
by billybeingbilly on May 5, 2009 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions
how do we know if anyone is among the top 25 players on their team any year before the season starts? Hell, how do the cards know Pujols was one of their top 25?
A significant major league track record.
No way can one look at Troy Percival and at David Price and conclude that Price is not the better pitcher.
I don’t know how long you’ve been following professional baseball, but in my life I’ve seen hundreds upon hundreds of great pitching prospects who had sparkling scouting reports and great minor league stats and came to the majors and failed dismally. Failure of top pitching prospects is very, very common. And in the case of Price, I’m not even talking about him potentially never panning out (which of course is possible). I’m just talking about him perhaps not being good in his rookie season, which is also very, very common.
If he wants to react to it by pouting, knowing there will be no repercussions b/c he’s going to come up to be the savior of a struggling team whenever the calendar says so, thats well within his rights too.
Sure he can react however he wants. And, as I said, if he’s pitching poorly because he’s pissed off, then he’s either an idiot or a narcissist. That’s pretty common for professional athletes too.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 5, 2009 2:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Why's he an idiot?
theres no benefit to him to perform well, nor any repercussions if he performs how he’s currently performing. He’s coming up when the calendar says so.
Fire Hillman
by billybeingbilly on May 5, 2009 4:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Is it guaranteed that he gets called up when it gets past the service time D-Day?
Do you or Price know for sure that no matter how well he’s pitching in AAA, he’s getting the call regardless? No, I don’t think either of you know that for sure. You’re just assuming. That may well happen. Or it may not. First, he’s a great starting pitcher prospect, so even if they think he’s better than some relievers, that doesn’t mean they’ll call him up to stall his development by pitching out of the bullpen. Second, weeks from now will the Rays FO think the rotation needs an upgrade and that Price would likely be an upgrade?
Nothing is certain. That’s why it would be stupid for him to let his mood affect his pitching in AAA. Neither he nor you know what kind of consequences there might be to him pitching poorly in the minors to start the season.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 5, 2009 4:11 AM EDT up reply actions
i guess we'll see....
do you know what the date is for price?
Fire Hillman
by billybeingbilly on May 5, 2009 6:11 AM EDT up reply actions
No
Nobody does really. I don’t think there’s a set, clear formula either (at least not one that resides outside of the MLB offices). I think everyone, including MLB teams, has to estimate. So, a couple months is probably safe. A month-and-a-half is, perhaps, borderline.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 5, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah...i knew about Weiters....
simply b/c i have him sitting on my bench on my fantasy team….patiently waiting for him to come up and hit so i can trade mccann for an OF
Fire Hillman
by billybeingbilly on May 4, 2009 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
WRONG
PECOTA said that he was one of the top 5 hitters in the pro baseball period last season, PECOTA is “deadly accurate.” Awesome numbers man Steve Goldman defended the .311/.395/.546 projection. Who are we to question PECOTA’s MLEs and system of comparables.
But seriously… yeah, Wieters is going to be awesome, and I’d feel pretty comfortable calling him at 3 WAR player over a full season now, at least. I just don’t think he’s Lance Berkman at the plate at this point.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on May 4, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, that 2009 projection for Wieters is a joke
Every projection system is going to spit out a weird result here and there, particularly for some players who haven’t made it to the majors yet. But they aren’t to be taken seriously.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
the difference
is that not all of them trumpet the wacky predictions as a triumph for the system rather than as a curious outlier that might make them wonder if, say, their MLEs might be a bit off or something (i.e., the Eastern league being the toughest minor league out there, the A+ Carolina league being a third AAA level).
One advantage PECOTA is supposed to have over other systems (especially CHONE, which doesn’t use comparables at all, just component aging curves) is regressing to comparable players. You’d think that would be especially important int he case of catchers, yet the only catcher name I recognize on the list for Wieters is Joe Mauer.
You’re right, all projection systems are going to come up with strange results. And MGL’s projection for Wieters’ was pretty high, too. But he didn’t make a big deal out of it, nor do others.
Anyway, even if one thinks that CHONE’s .255/.357/.507 for Johnny Gomes is too high (and I do think it is), that’s still not as nuts as .311/.395/.546 for Wieters. Not even close. And I like Wieters, although watching Moustakas behind the plate in 2013 will be reward enough.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on May 4, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
isn't this more fun than figuring out exaclty which decade professors are stuck in?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on May 4, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe.
But not as much fun as projecting which decade most professors will be stuck in during the 2029 academic year.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
by Sweep_the_Leg on May 4, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, defending that projection makes it seem like Goldman is more interested in blindly defending anything PECOTA churns out than trying to be honest and reasonable
And as far as the year professors are stuck in, I’m going to go with….1974. Not sure why. It just feels right.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
that's the year of the first Rush, Judas Priest, and AC/DC albums
so it makes sense. Not sure how that correlates with the unreleased recordings of Crosby, Stills, Nash, and Young Fighiting at the Fillmore East.
I just think it’s funny that the had Goldman do it. He’s a good writer, and i’ve enjoyed his stuff, but if Nate was too busy doing stuff everyone cares about but isn’t all that impressive when you think about it, couldn’t they get an actual numbers person? I’m not sure what sort of Casey Stengel or GIl MacDougald anecdotes would help you with that.
Seriously, Davenport’s more of a number-cruncher than an analyst (although he’s very, very good and i envy his abilities, even if EqA is way too complicated), but if something happens to him, is there a legit sabermetrician in the house over there?
BTW, did you enter BP Idol? You should have. I didn’t,but you should have.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on May 4, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Goldman may have inherited PECOTA
I don’t now for sure, but I bet Silver is just letting it go. BP has the algorithm. They just need to put in the stats and run the numbers every January. Of course this would mean no more tweaking of PECOTA (or tweaking by a less competent sabermetrician). Goldman may be the new PECOTA guy. Yikes.
I’m not sure what BP Idol is. I saw a brief mention of it on a BP blog post recently but it just referred to it without explaining it. I pick and choose very selectively with my reading at BP anymore.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
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