Postseason Odds, May 6

For those few, you unhappy few, who are not familiar with BP's postseason odds reports, they're generated by a program which plays the remainder of the season a million times a day to get percentage results.

As you can see, the Royals now have a 43% chance to win the division, and even a 10% chance to win the Wild Card -- primarily due to the fact that the Royals' average win total after a million sims is the second-best record in the AL.

At any rate, as of today (which marks the 1/6 point of the season, believe it or don't) KC's playoff odds are now over 50%. The Royals began the season at 22%, around the same odds as everyone else in the Central, with virtually no chance of the WC. It's still early, of course, but the results of the sim are promising.

Another thing which won't jump out at you if you're not used to checking the report: the average win total to take the AL Central is now at 94 wins, and since KC is the champion in 43% of those simulations, I reckon Clay's computer now has the Royals winning in the mid-90s an awful lot of the time.

6 months ago jonfmorse 8 comments 0 recs |

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I eagerlyl await the revelation

that the Playoff Odds report still hasn’t converted to the new WARP, and that every team’s win prediction is overestimted by 10.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 6, 2009 3:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I eagerly await

that % chance to win division to creep to 100%.

Don't Stop Believing!

by KC Chris on May 6, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ah, but there's a catch.

I’m not referring to the PECOTA-adjusted report (which still doesn’t have the Royals finishing over .500 yet). This is the baseline report, which only uses real data.

This space for rent.

by jonfmorse on May 6, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs