Royals rotation - FIP, tRA, tRA+

Zack Greinke - 1.39, 1.35, 174 (#1 starter level)
Gil Meche - 2.46, 2.85, 146 (#1 starter level)
Kyle Davies - 5.62, 7.01, 66 (#5 starter level - below replacement level)
Sidney Ponson - 4.70, 5.15, 102 (#3 starter level)
Brian Bannister - 4.05, 3.49, 133 (#1 starter level)

10 months ago NYRoyal 30 comments 1 recs |

Comments

In short, A "Big Three" lives!

FYI, I got my tRA+ by rotation slot from Matt Carruth at statcorner.com. You can find the breakdown here. Here is the basic data:

AVERAGES. (based on 2007 and 2008 data)

#1 STARTERS: 130 tRA+

#2 STARTERS: 112 tRA+

#3 STARTERS: 100 tRA+

#4 STARTERS: 91 tRA+

#5 STARTERS: 76 tRA+

MARKERS.
These represent the breakpoints between each slot. For example, between a 95 and a 106 tRA+ would be rated as a #3 starter. Below 86 and you’re a #5, above a 118 and you’re a #1.

1 - 2 BARRIER: 118 tRA+

2 - 3 BARRIER: 106 tRA+

3 - 4 BARRIER: 95 tRA+

4 - 5 BARRIER: 86 tRA+

So, as of today, the Royals have three starters who, so far, have pitched better than an average #1 SP.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 8, 2009 5:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Remember when Davies was one of the Big Three?

That lasted for all of two weeks.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 8, 2009 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To be accurate

it lasted about 7.5 months.

The only problem was, we didn’t have any games to watch for 6 of ’em.

This space for rent.

by jonfmorse on May 8, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great post, NYRoyal, but shouldn't you point out some of Bannister's red flags, too?

If you’ve posted about this before, apologies, but I’m curious. Love the tRA-FIP breakdown, but aren’t you worried about how Bannister’s walk rate, at 4.07 BB/9 this (versus about 2.40 BB/9 in 2007 and 2.8BB/9 in 2008), while his home rate/Fly ball rate is 3.7% (vs. career 8.8%) and his IF fly % (25% this year vs. 12.5% career) and his GB/FB rate is pretty much the same as always. Al this looks awfully unsustainable, although he’s still a solid pitcher. And I know *tRA (regressed tRA) only stops having a fit about small sample sizes and becomes useful about halfway through the season, so I understand why you haven’t used it.

And oh yeah, Grienke and Meche are the illest 1-2 in baseball. Wow. Even better than Felix and Bedard.

by Decatur on May 8, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's no question that Bannister has red flags

He’s not going to maintain an ace-like tRA. The HR’s are going to come up some. And his batted ball luck will moderate. But when he’s showing some different numbers from his career numbers (which covers basically two seasons), how are we to know which numbers are sustainable and which are not (at least with regard to non-luck-based stats)? He has a lower LD% and a higher IFFB% than his career averages? Are those good numbers unsustainable? His walk rate is higher this year than his career average. Is that sustainable?

One important thing is that he’s pitching differently this year from last year. The Pitch f/x data shows (and he’s discussed it in interviews too) that he’s throwing many fewer 4-seam fastballs and many more cutters and sliders. His 4-seamer is not one of his best pitches, so he’s decided to go primarily with pitches that maximize movement. I think this new strategy should be expected to give rise to some new results. What is the “real Banny” that we should see going forward? I’m really not sure. But I would guess some kind of middle-of-the-rotation performance level, which is a wide range covering both above average and below average performance.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 8, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

wow.

Yeah? From what I hear, you couldn't hit water if you fell out of a f@#%ing boat.

by BillyMojo on May 8, 2009 8:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I really hope Banny's #1 status continues

and that I am completely wrong about him.

by AxDxMx on May 8, 2009 9:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

All that matters is WINS!!!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 8, 2009 10:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

THEY PLAY THE GAMES ON THE FIELD!@!

by Top Ramen on May 8, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Time for a "Should the Royals extend Bannister now or after the season?" post

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on May 8, 2009 11:29 AM EDT reply actions 3 recs

never

by GobbleforCyoung on May 8, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bannisters' initial should now be part of the MGD, and the D dropped

Davies though makes the acronym cool because it’s a beer. However he may not deserve to be part of it, until he starts throwing angry again.

MGD to ?

GMB? GrMeBan?

by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 8, 2009 1:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Let's replace Meche with Horacio

and it will be GHB

"You know what, I mean I cried in bed for a while, moaning 'Why!? Why did this have to happen?'"

Zack Greinke on the Brad Pitt - Jennifer Aniston split

by DCRoyals on May 8, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is it at all possible

Tha Bannister is somehow an exception to the ‘rules’ that govern statistical analysis of pitchers?

When he tried to become what “should” be more succesful and strike more guys out, he failed miserably. When he lets balls be put into play, he is successful. Granted, his last start was the best of both worlds, with 7 K’s, but that has been the abberation.

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on May 8, 2009 1:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Its certainly possible

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 8, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

These "rules" are pretty complicated

The “rules” don’t say that you have to get a lot of strike outs. The rules strongly take into account the three true outcomes (K, BB, HR) as well as recognizing the importance of batted ball data. The metric tRA accounts for all of those things.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 8, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The unconventional pitcher

Bannister does it right, and why not? It works for him and his gigantic IQ, his brain forces the batters to place the ball where he wants it!

I am going to show my ignorance; Have there been pitchers in MLB that have similar stats to Banny that we can look at and get a gauge on perhaps his growth curve, potential in terms of what could be accomplished?

I know there are many pitchers who pitch to contact, but like Banny?

by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 8, 2009 1:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

but he got 7 Ks yesterday...

not sure how much pitching to contact he did

by Will McDonald on May 8, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

banny be smart

where tpj used to happen but no longer does due to his current dl status.

by blue bandwagon on May 8, 2009 1:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Renaming MGD

MGD-light? light equals = minus the D, but added the B

by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 8, 2009 1:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Is it possible that Davies needs to go to the pen

instead on Ponson for the Hochevar callup? Who would have thought.

by KCScuba on May 8, 2009 1:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think Davies needs regular starts to work out his issues

Unfortunately, he can’t be forced to do so at Omaha. I think the best option would be to hope/pray that Ponson has another good-to-decent start or two, and then trade him to a starting-pitching-starved team (paging Mr. Minaya, Mr. Omar Minaya) for…something of value (B-level prospect?). Hochevar would then be called up and he and Banny can take over the 3/4 spots, with Davies moving back to 5th in the rotation until he shows consistent improvement.

They’ve still got decent SP depth at Omaha in case of injury with:
Dinardo, 3.68 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 15:3 K/BB (22.0 IP)
Colon, 3.12 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 19:7 K/BB (17.1 IP) or maybe even
Chen, 4.82 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 23:9 K/BB (28.0 IP).

And never forget Ducky.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on May 8, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dinardo has better stuff than HoRam

and he’s lefty!

by GobbleforCyoung on May 8, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think Davies is done

I know there’s not a long track-record of success here but he’s had 3 bad starts 1 excellent start and 2 good starts. That coupled with a solid finish to last year and a solid spring lead me to believe that he might have tinkered a little bit since the opening of the season and hopefully he makes the adjustment to bring it back in line.

With the relatively few games played this year the numbers are easily skewed. Davies and Banny will even out and we’ll have two good mid-rotation starters when its all said and done.

I've got crazy flipper fingers!

by labbadabba on May 8, 2009 1:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

True about Davies

He needs to adjust back, and a couple of his starts he got Gil Meche type run support, so he could have a couple more W’s.

Bring the fire back Kyle!

by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 8, 2009 1:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The point of this post

if I understand it correctly, would be that his tRA+ is below replacement level. His run support wouldn’t be relevant to that. He does need to figure it out. I hope he returns to being quite good again, but we are also contending and don’t need to be hanging on too long if he we have better alternatives in Omaha for his starts. I think he would be an excellent reliever if he doesn’t work out as a starter.

by KCScuba on May 8, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Add in (hopefully) Luck Hochevar soon

I don’t know how to determine FIP or tRA+ but Hochevars counting numbers are:
5-0, 0.90 ERA, 30 SO, 10 BB in 40 ip

I sure his advanced stats are pretty good too. This is really the first time he has dominate competition at the higher levels. That has to be a good sign.

by Chyladin on May 8, 2009 3:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs