Friday Bingo Bango

by royalsreview on May 8, 2009 3:54 PM EDT in News Comment 64 comments

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

But can he get up? (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

It's Friday, which already means everyone's fairly relaxed, and between the day game yesterday and the late start tonight, there's almost a sneaky off-day here in the middle.

Scattered things:

Unlike, say, the Blue Jays, the Royals haven't benefited from a particularly easy schedule thus far. In fact, it's about to start getting easier. This probably will end up being a larger post at some point, but the clearest path to the Royals winning the division is to keep banking wins in May and June. When I did a rough eyeball of the schedule back in March, those two months looked like the easiest the team would have. August and September figure to be the toughest months schedule-wise, though a lot of that is dependent on how good the Indians and Twins are.

Everyone in the Central is now squared up pythag-wise, save for the Indians, who are two games below their expected record. Yes, that means that even luck's darlings, the Twins, have an accurately representative record.
Thanks to (or possibly in spite of, I'm not sure) their recent offensive surge, the Royals are now eighth in the AL in runs. Amazingly, they're fifth in OBP at .346.
The Draft Reports Series has reached the Royals.
Since returning from the DL, Jose Guillen is hitting .326/.442/.581. This is different from his hot streak last year, when he hit .330/.330/.550 for a month (or whatever it was). His walk rate is at 12.7%, an astronomically high number for him (his career average is 5.1%).
So no one is with me that Guillen's profile picture on yahoo looks like Kenneth the page from 30 Rock? I see the same toothy-smile and a childlike look of innocence.
While he was with the White Sox (of all teams) early in his career, Miguel Olivo posted somewhat respectable walk rates (around 6%) but since then he's completely cratered, and continues to do so. Right now, he's walking in 1.6% of his PAs and striking out in 38% of them. I don't get too worked up about strikeouts, but when you reach a certain threshold of absurdity, it's indicative of multiple problems. But hey, he's randomly become Greinke's buddy, and without him Greinke's ERA would probably be 4.50... He's that good. Now if we can just get David Riske somehow.
The Coco Crisp trade has worked out for the Royals defensively, and Crisp has responded well to being the leadoff man: he's getting on base at a higher level than he's done in years. Less positive however, has been the slotting of DDJ further down in the order. Both his walk and line drive numbers are down.
Billy Butler is hitting .340/.426/.528 in his last 61 PAs.
On April 30 I posted the Royals' UZR rankings. Overall, the Royals had the sixth best defense in the AL. At the moment, they're fourth, though way behind the top three teams (Sea, TB, Tex).

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First place in the AL Central!

It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.

by Juancho on May 8, 2009 3:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

But the most important Royals news of all today

A-ROD IS BACK!!!!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 8, 2009 4:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

according to ESPN anyways.

Your fucking out! I'm fucking in! -Kenny Powers

by RoyalChief8569 on May 8, 2009 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

how about Manny news? and Brett Favre?

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on May 8, 2009 4:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Coco has been good. RamRam has been odd. His ERA is 0.59. But his FIP is merely 4.16 (tRA of 4.59, tRA+ 109 which is about average for a reliever). Why? Mostly because his K/9 has dropped precipitously. It has dropped from 8.79 last year down to 4.70 this year. No idea why. He hasn’t lost velocity. Maybe it is just a small sample anomaly.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 8, 2009 4:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Crisp trade would look even better...

if Farnsworth had not been Moore’s apparent answer for a set-up replacement. Imagine if he had simply acquired Crisp for RamRam, signed Cruz, and given Rosa the last spot in the pen. Even if nothing else was done with that extra $4M+ this year, that would have been a excellent series of moves (at least from what we’ve seen so far).

However, if the Farnsworth money had been used toward signing Hudson, then it’s unlikely that Callaspo would have been given the chance to do what he’s doing. So, see…signing Farnsworth = blessing in disguise. No more complaints about the Professor.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on May 8, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, one can look at it differently

Imagine if he had simply acquired Crisp for RamRam, signed Cruz, and given Rosa the last spot in the pen.

He did sign Cruz. Can’t we look at it the following way?:

Royals trade RamRam — sign Cruz
Royals trade Nunez — sign HoRam
Farnsworth is just a failed FA signing

While HoRam is a poor starter, he’s been an effective reliever again this year. That doesn’t mean he should have gotten $1.8M of course. And the Farnsworth money could have definitely been spent in any one of a million better ways.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 8, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's certainly one way to look at it

And who knows what was going on inside Dayton’s head at the time. He traded RamRam and Nunez in the offseason, and given Nunez’s mechanics, injuries, and history, I don’t think Moore was going to rely on Nunez. He might have hung onto him, but I don’t think he was confident in going forward with him as a go-to set-up guy. That was RamRam’s job.

So, once RamRam was also traded, he knew he needed to replace him. I think he considered Farnsworth to be RamRam’s direct replacement, given when he was signed and the statements made afterward. My scenario would have had Dayton not even considering Farnsworth and placing Cruz as his top priority. The timing of the Cruz signing seemed almost like he was an afterthought, and probable bullpen filler (in Dayton’s eyes). If not, then why didn’t he make Cruz his first/top bullpen acquisition? Were there discussions with Arizona about the weird “sign-and-trade” tactic that everyone theorized about (to avoid draft pick implications)?

Obviously, all this is just hindsight and speculation, but the bottom line is that the size of Farnsworth’s contract and the emphasis placed on getting his deal done lead me to believe that Dayton thought he was definitely going to be his direct RamRam replacement.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on May 8, 2009 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So, once RamRam was also traded, he knew he needed to replace him. I think he considered Farnsworth to be RamRam’s direct replacement, given when he was signed and the statements made afterward.

This is probably true, but all I really care about with regard to the bullpen situation is how he handled rebuilding the pen after trading away two good relievers. I don’t care the order the new guys were acquired. I don’t care who was supposed to replace whom. Functionally, it appears that Cruz replaced RamRam. And overall Moore has done a pretty decent job of rebuilding the pen.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 8, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And overall Moore has done a pretty decent job of rebuilding the pen.

Agreed. In fact, I would say it’s proven to be his best GM’ing ability thus far. It’s just me doing some backward “wishcasting” (as you like to say) for a best-case-scenario instead of a pretty-decent-job.

Thank God no one else offered Cruz a bigger contract in the meantime, though.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on May 8, 2009 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

SERIOUSLY!

Imagine our backend right now if we hadn’t picked up Cruz.

Don't Stop Believing!

by KC Chris on May 8, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

“Our backend” would be really sore from the repeated kickings it’d be getting!

Weaseling out of things is important to learn. It's what separates us from the animals! Except the weasel! - Homer Simpson

by aHorseWithNoName on May 8, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps, but I think if we hadn't picked up Cruz, we'd be raving about how good Tejeda is

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 8, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Probably

Tejeda was my pick for this year’s RamRam season, but hasn’t he been pretty erratic?

Don't Stop Believing!

by KC Chris on May 8, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yea, I think Tejada is a bit too wild to be left in true high leverage roles

Maybe we’d be raving about Jamey Wright. Or maybe we should already be raving about Jamey Wright.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 8, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here here

Agree on Tejeda. Wright may end up being the RamRam of 2009. Different sort of pitcher, but he might have year as equally and suprisingly good as RamRam.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on May 8, 2009 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Even with his walk rate?

That’s eventually going to get him. It could be the difference between being like RamRam (all around solid with high k/9), or being like the professor (high era, high whip with high k/9).

If you don't understand it, kill it.

by Discodave on May 8, 2009 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For a reliever, even a setup man, I think his projected BB/9 (about 4.5) is acceptable if the guy gets a lot of K's

And he gets a ton of K’s as a reliever. I don’t know that he’d make an elite setup man. But I think he’d make a good one. Setup men aren’t usually known for their pinpoint control.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 8, 2009 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That makes sense.

It would be interesting to see what the theoretical ‘break even’ point would be. After all, you can walk three in a row to start an inning as long as you strike out the next three.

I would just rather to continue to build confidence in Tejada, although I’d like to see that happen in the 7th instead of the 5th and 6th. I definitely wouldn’t want to enter a season depending on Tejada as the setup man. Not necessarily that he couldn’t be slightly below to right about league average in the role, but what that would say about our overall bullpen depth.

If you don't understand it, kill it.

by Discodave on May 8, 2009 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's always good to have a setup-quality pitcher as just one of your middle relievers

Or I guess long reliever as Tejeda is being used now.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 8, 2009 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe it's Quality Of Competition

keeping Ram Ram’s K/9 down (in addition to regressing toward the mean)

by benfunke on May 8, 2009 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmmm, I doubt the quality of batters he's faced has been so high that it would account for him striking out 4 fewer batters per 9 inn.

He may have faced better hitters overall this year than last year, but I doubt the difference is huge.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 8, 2009 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm tired of Olivo getting even partial credit for Greinke's success

The dude CANNOT block a pitch. And it was only a year ago that Zack called Buck the best catcher in baseball.

"Can't win at home, can't win on the road, and quite frankly I don't know where else to play."

by PianoMonkey on May 8, 2009 4:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Greinke is really the only one giving Olivo partial credit for Greinke's success

I just give Olivo credit for being able to hit lefties.
Career vs. LHP .289/.318/.526 (.844 OPS)
2009 vs. LHP .344/.364/.531 (.895 OPS)

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 8, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

which explains his usage pattern by hillman...

33 PAs v RHP
34 PAs v LHP

by royalsreview on May 8, 2009 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

side note

I thought you were the guy who didn’t believe in platoon splits for hitters?

by royalsreview on May 8, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't believe in extreme platoon splits based on less than a ton of data

I agree with the common sabermetric opinion that the vast majority of players have the standard platoon split. Very few have extreme platoon splits. The vast majority of players, over a large sample (many seasons) have their platoon splits even out to the average, standard platoon split. I believe this came up with regard to Gordon who has had a pretty big platoon split over two seasons. But it is likely that this will calm down to a more common platoon split over the next several seasons.

The question is whether Olivo is one of those few extreme platoon split players. He has been over the course of his career, but maybe that will eventually even out. But even if he isn’t that extreme, he still has at least the normal platoon split. I’d direct your attention to d_f’s posts on this at Driveline Mechanics where he attempted to find the “true platoon split” for guys like Gordon, Olivo and others. Even regressed to average, Olivo still has a pretty big platoon split (though less than his career split).

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 8, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So, the solution is to only start Greinke, and therefore Olivo, when the Royals are facing a LHP

Otherwise, just skip his turn in the rotation until an opposing lefty comes along. Problem solved. That was easy.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on May 8, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

-100

/sarcasm’d

by stuckinstl12 on May 8, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, I say start Greinke against EVERY LHP opponent

Maximize Greinke’s value as well as Olivo’s!

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 8, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Muser (or Dusty Baker) were still managing, I shudder to think that he would strongly consider this scenario

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on May 8, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the overall teams we've played have been good

but we’ve been lucky in regards to not facing the other team’s ace. No Halladay (in a four game series), no verlander, no bedard or hernandez.

by 9il on May 8, 2009 4:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting point.

Which top pitchers have lost to the Royals this year? Let me go look it up.

It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.

by Juancho on May 8, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep. The only ace we've beaten this year

is Cliff Lee, who might not be an ace anymore.

It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.

by Juancho on May 8, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But we faced Buehrle

And got up on him….and that’s saying something.

by kd_in_kc on May 8, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Royals are up to #4 on the BP hit list

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8850

Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. ~Greg, age 8

by loyal2theroyals on May 8, 2009 4:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

We're 5th on SI's power rankings, too.

"Can't win at home, can't win on the road, and quite frankly I don't know where else to play."

by PianoMonkey on May 8, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Haven't beaten a ton of Aces

but we’re taking care of business against everyone else. We’re beating the beatable guys and not giving up the ghost like we’ve done the past 6 years and snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

by Your_Moms_Boyfriend on May 8, 2009 4:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'll take losing to the other team's ace

if we are going to win the other 2 games.

If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.

by Warden11 on May 8, 2009 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

one thing different this year from the recent past is that we are beating the teams/pitchers we should be beating. Then next level is beating other team’s aces.

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on May 8, 2009 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, not a lot.

Kevin Millwood – April 18
Cliff Lee – April 22
Scott Baker – May 3 (Some would say Liriano, but I think Baker was to start Opening Day before his injury.)

*Should have had the win against Buerhle on Opening Day.

by BrRoyal on May 9, 2009 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

taking 2 of 3 for the rest of the year, usually means playoffs

rally alpaca nods in approval

by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 8, 2009 5:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

(nodding)

by Fernando Vina School of Linguistics on May 8, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Where did this come from?

I love the term Rally Alpaca. When you say it, it rolls off your tognue like sexual butter or something like that… I can’t describe it. Love me some Rally Alllllpacas.

What's this day of rest sh@t? What's this bullsh!t? I don't f#ckin' care! It don't matter to Jesus. But you're not foolin' me, man. You might fool the f*cks in the league office, but you don't fool Jesus. This bush league psyche-out stuff. Laughable, man - ha ha! I would have f&cked you in the @ss Saturday. I f#ck you in the @ss next Wednesday instead. Wooo! You got a date Wednesday, baby! - Jesus Quintana

by ratherfantastic on May 8, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You haven't heard Bloomquist's alpaca story?

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on May 8, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Courtesy of the good folks at Lone Star Ball

…the Texas Rangers site. They’ve got a whole bunch of them. I figured if their offense is good, it MUST be due to their rally animals. All credit to them.

by Fernando Vina School of Linguistics on May 8, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ahhh, I see...

I love the Ian Kinsler dog, but I never saw this.

by ratherfantastic on May 8, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are we going to get a trademark claim, though?

Or are they unfairly trying to use up all the obscure rally animals in a scurrilous effort to destroy other teams’ rallying chances?

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on May 8, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How bout these Rally Alpacas?

by ratherfantastic on May 8, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Does Guillen have any alpacas down on his estate/ranch in the Dominican?

If not, then maybe we could use his favorite livestock/farm animal.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on May 8, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He has lions I think

by AxDxMx on May 8, 2009 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The most important thing right now...

beat the teams that are down and don’t give them a chance.Beat the teams we should beat and wins there series’ against the better teams. The second most important thing is to avoid a bone crushing loss (ala the BoSox no hitter last year) that leads to the team depression that leads to a huge losing streak.

by ratherfantastic on May 8, 2009 5:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Anyone see that Gator got traded

for Ryan Freel. Or vice versa. Or watever.

Don't Stop Believing!

by KC Chris on May 8, 2009 5:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

DM is an idiot for just letting Gator go

We could have had an expensive, oft-injured no power 32 year old outfielder!!!!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 8, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

don't you dare insult ryan freel

he is the kind of player that will surrender his body for the team in order to make a play.

You cannot put a value on a man who is willing to die for his teammates.

by wildthang on May 8, 2009 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just saw this on B-r

kinda cool info so far, gotta like not being shutout yet:

Days in First 20 last on May 7, counts only the days a team played and was in first at the end of the day
24 last on May 7, counts all days of the season including off days
Biggest Lead 3 last on May 7, for days on which they played
Farthest Behind 1 last on Apr 28, for days on which they played
Most Games over .500 7 last on May 7
Most Games under .500 1 last on Apr 11
Longest Winning Streak 6 May 2 to May 7
Longest Losing Streak 2 Apr 10 to Apr 11, Apr 19 to Apr 21 and Apr 25 to Apr 26
Most Runs Allowed 9 Apr 25
Most Runs Scored 12 Apr 17
Longest Game (innings) 11 May 2 and May 5
Times Shutout by Opponent 0
Times Opponent Shutout 4

by wildthang on May 8, 2009 6:01 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Yup, not shutout and longest losing streak is 2

Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!

by mazoboom on May 8, 2009 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I HOPE....

that the hot streak continues when I return from Hawaii. I’m starting to wonder if I should try and find a job here on the island and stay just to see if the Royals can go 151-11 on the season.

It doesn’t get any better than Hawaii and a Royals winning streak!!

FKA "MileHighKCfan"

by JSouth on May 8, 2009 6:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs