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Reviewing the 1st Round of the 2008 Draft

June and the 2009 MLB Draft is coming fast.  Last year the debate on this site about who KC should pick was basically between Eric Hosmer or Justin Smoak.  While the Hos has gotten off to a typical slow midwest league start Smoak is doing just what you would expect someone with his name to be, Smokin'. 

The debate won't be as great in the 12 hole this year so let's take a look at how the 1st rounders from '08 are currently doing.  This look means absolutely zilch for longterm future of these players but will at least give the Hosmer Bust camp a little info on how all the picks are doing.  I also gave a KCScoliny ETA prediction/guess on each pick. 

  Jamie-lynn-sigler-pinup_medium

via hollywoodismyhood.files.wordpress.com

Wow who knew the girl from Sopranos could look like this.  What round would you draft her in?

 

Star-divide

1st Pick Tampa Bay Rays - Tim Beckham - Tim finds himseld in a highly offensively weighted SALLY (South Atlantic League) league.  Mike Stanton hit 39 HR's in this league last season just for reference.  Parks are smaller and very friendly to hitters.  24 G .301/.323/.441 3-2b 2-3b 2-HR Beckham struggled in the APPY league last year posting a .642 OPS but is off to a decent start in A ball.  Tim from everything I read is very raw and gonna take his time level by level to reach the majors.  His athleticism is off the charts and Tampa Bay really has no room for him anyway so hard to argue with the pick even if the results are questionable up to this point. KCScoliny Guess at a ETA 2012

2nd Pick Pittsburgh Pirates - Pedro Alvarez - Pedros contract dispute and spring weight and knee problems precede him quite well.  Pedro like Moustakas and many of the Royals top prospects has started in the pitching friendly Carolina League. 26 G .207/.321/.391 2-2b 5-Hr 17Bb 28 So.  It's very early in the season especially for a player that has played inconsistently over the last couple years due to injury.  He is absolutely crushing righties(.919OPS) and struggling versus lefties(3bb 20so), his BABIP isn't doing him any favors either .245.  Look for a second half surge from Alvarez.  KCS ETA Sept 2010

3rd Pick KC Royals Eric Hosmer joins Dan Gutierrez on the Scott Boras Scottsdale Indy leaguers.  Wins the 2010 Indy League MVP and Triple crown leading Scottsdale to the championship.  Realizes his pro dreams by moving to Japan and just like Tuffy Rhodes mashes 500+ Japanese league Home Runs while leading the Ham Fighters to their first title since Trey Hillman was manager.  The Ham Fighters rename Hillman;s restaurant the Hoz House and only serve Fried Chicken and Waffles.  The Bust returns to the states to try to regain glory in the MLB only to find himself tragically injured in a Moustakas locker slamming incident.

4th Pick Baltimore Orioles - Brian Matusz -The Orioles took this lefty out of San Diego with the 4th pick to add to their talented group of pitchers and sent him to the Carolina League after a nice stint in the AFL. 5 GS 2-1 3.67 ERA 3.79 FIP 27 IP 28 H 32/11 So/Bb 3 HR .262 BAA.  Pretty impressive 10.54 K/9.  If he performs well he might be on the fast track to Baltimore as they could push their young pitchers to go along with their already talented lineup. ETA 2011

5th Pick San Fransisco Giants - Buster Posey - Maybe one of the better athletes in the draft some thought Posey was gonna demand 8-9 million as a signing bonus.  Those thoughts were incorrect as the former FSU SS/C signed in the 6M range.  Posey has been sent to the very hitter friendly California League. .314/.395/.533 13/15 Bb/So 8 2b 5 Hr Buster is exhibiting more power than many scouts anticipated and he is crushing lefties to the tune of a 1.352 OPS.  ETA 2011

6th Pick Florida Marlins - Kyle Skipworth - SALLY league Skipworth was supposed to be a pretty polished hitter when drafted out of high school.  .183/.234/.296 3-2b 1-3b 1-HR 5/26 Bb/So Kyle had a very slow start to his pro career last season as he struggled in GCL to the tune of a .602 OPS.  His undisciplined ways have carried over this season as well.  So far during the early stage in his career he has 18/72 Bb/So ratio.  Maybe handling pro pitchers is hurting his bat.  ETA Never

7th Pick Cincinnati Reds - Yonder Alonso - Florida State League is a pitcher friendly High A League.  Yonder is a very polished college bat who some thought would be first player taken to reach the major league level if he could find a solid position for Joey Votto to play.  .272/.330/.495 8 2b 5 Hr 10/17 Bb/So I bet Yonder is sorry he didn't take up Alex on that offer to stay at his condo in NY if he didn't sign.  He could've hung out with Madonna and Alex's cousin.  What a great time that would've been, oh well I guess minor league cougars will have to do.  KCS ETA Sept 2010

8th Pick Chicago White Sox - Gordon Beckham - AA Southern League Georgia SS was probably the best college player in the country the last couple months of the season and hasn't cooled off since.  .303/.381/.505 14 2b 2 HR Gordon was crushing the ball in spring and nearly won a big league job.  He has continued the hot hitting for Michael Jordan's former team.  He is currently playing SS and while Alexai Ramirez has oodles of talent he also has loads of plate discipline issues.  I expect Gordon to play 2b in the majors but if Ramirez's struggles continue don't be shocked if Gordon forces managements hand to give him a shot at SS.  KCS ETA July 2009

9th Pick Washington Nationals - Aaron Crow- Unsigned

10th Pick Houston Astros - Jason Castro - A+ California League Castro was a surprise pick and many believed it to be a signability draft by the weak Astros farm system.  Castro is a so called polished catcher out of Stanford who should move quickly as he has no real roadblocks in the system.  .276/.322/.438 6 2b 1 3b 1 HR 7/23 Bb/So An overdraft at the time is not putting up numbers to validate the pick so far.  ETA 2010

11th Pick Texas Rangers - Justin Smoak - AA Texas League hitters league The best farm system in the majors were handed a nice shiny package by the Astros not drafting Smoak a pick earlier.  As Billy Beane sat drooling the Rangers did the right thing taking the pitch smashing switch hitting college hitter.  .358/.470/.547 6 2b 4 Hr 20/13 Bb/So As you can see Smoak has been a large disappointment so far in his minor league career.  He smoked pitches all spring and is slugging away at a nice clip in the Texas league so far.  Smoak could move fast allowing the Rangers to ship Chris Davis for some pitching depth if they want.  KCS ETA Sept '09

12th Pick Oakland A's - Jemille Weeks - Not assigned yet this season.  I personally didn't like this pick as I'm not a big fan of college second baseman in the first round.  IMO if Weeks is good enough to play middle infield in the pros than he should be playing SS in college or have a bat that can carry his average defense.  I don't think Weeks has either. .297/422/.405 3-2b 1-3b 1 HR 13/12 Bb/So  Single A Kane County last season  Billy Beane has taken to accumulating second baseman after trading for Eric Patterson, Corey Wimberly and Adrian Cardenas(playing SS) in seperate deals the last two seasons and drafting Weeks.  KCS ETA Never

13th Pick St Louis Cardinals - Brett Wallace - AA Springfield Texas League There was a slight opening prior to the season for Wallace to get a major league job as Glaus went down with an injury.  Wallace didn't seize the opportunity and has taken his smooth bat to AA.  .283/.414/.465 3 2b 5 Hr 15/28 Bb/So There aren't many questions about his bat but there is gigantic question about his glove at 3b.  With Glaus signed thru '09 Wallace has an opportunity to capture the '10 job.  KCS ETA Sept. 2009

14th Pick Minnesota Twins - Aaron Hicks - Not Assinged yet this season.  Hicks is a supreme athlete that could've been a high pick as a pitcher.  ' 08 Stats 45 G GCL .318/.409/.491 10-2b 4-3b 4-HR Labeled as raw Hicks athleticism talent is hard to question.  ETA 2012

15th Pick Los Angeles Dodgers - Ethan Martin - Midwest League Pitchers League 5 G 4 GS 3-0 21 IP 13 H 3 ER 28/7 So/Bb Martin pitched in relief last game for some reason but has done well so far in the pitcher friend MWL.  ETA 2012

16th Pick Milwaukee Brewers - Brett Lawrie - Midwest League The Canadian hitting specialist was the 4th catcher taken in the '08 draft and some thought was the most talented hitter among the group.  Lawrie has since moved to second base I assume to avoid the clutter of talented catchers in the Brewers system.  .330/.381/.596 5-2b 4-3b 4-Hr 8/14 Bb/So Lawrie has international experience as he has traveled with the Canadian team since he was 16 yo.  With that background it is not shocking that he has got off to such a fast start considering his hitting background and play versus advanced competition prior to this season.  KCS ETA Sept 2011

17th Pick Toronto Blue Jays - David Cooper - AA Eastern League Pitcher Friendly League Cooper was flying thru the system last season bouncing thru 3 levels and finding himself in the Eastern League this season.  .267/339/.376 8-2b 1-Hr 12/22 Bb/So The Blue Jays have been pretty aggressive with Cooper playing him in 3 levels last season and bouncing him into AA to start the year.  His bat is his specialty and he has been judged as a 1b/DH only.  If he is to play those spots then his HR numbers are going to need to increase.  KCS ETA 2011

18th Pick New York Mets - Ike Davis - A+ Florida State League Some questioned Davis lack of college pop.  A big kid at 6'5 people expected him to fillout and develop power longterm.  .288/.378/.423 9-2B 1-3B 1-Hr 15/27 Bb/So If Davis is to be a 1b he is gonna need to develop more power.  After struggling in the NY Penn league last season Davis is off to a very average start this season.  The ASU alum is gonna need to improve his power numbers for a shot in the pros.  Especially playing in the NY Fishbowl.  KCS ETA Never

19th Pick Chicago Cubs - Andrew Cashner - A+ FSL TCU always has quite a few talented arms and as most college teams do they typically beat the crap out of them.  Maybe knowing the history the Cubs are taking it very easy with Cashner.  3 GS 0-0 9 IP 4 H 1 ER 5 Bb 6 So Pitching decently so far but the Cubs are being very very gentle on him.  He should be performing at least this well considering his age.  KCS ETA Not enough info

20th Pick Seattle Mariners- Josh Fields - AA Southern League Fields was a Georgia reliever who was a major cog in getting the Bulldogs to Omaha where he quickly collapsed.  It took Fields quite a while to come to an agreement with the Mariners as he was a college senior who didn't have to sign technically until the draft this year in June.  10 G 9 IP 15 K 9 Bb 7 H 6 ER A power arm who depends on the flyball and strikeout could be a future closer on the Mariners roster and lead Jack Z to a WS implementing the 6 IP rotation with a Aumont, Fields, Morrow 7-9.  KCS ETA Sept 2009

21st Pick Detroit Tigers - Ryan Perry- Part of the talented Arizona Wildcats bullpen Perry was the first 1st rounder to break into the Bigs.  Expect to see this talented righthander in a Detroit bullpen for at least six years.  13 G 12.1 IP 0-1 7 H 11/10 Bb/SO 4 ER ETA - Predicted Correctly God I'm good.

22nd Pick New York Mets - Reese Havens - FSL A+ Smoaks teammate in college has taken his solid bat to pro ball and has not missed a beat at lower levels yet.  Havens has been a highly sought prospect since HS and the Mets could've landed a steal here..276/.374/.533 7-2b 1-3b 6 Hr 17/21 Bb/So Showing quite a bit of pop so far Havens could be the 2b answer the Mets need.  ETA 2011

23rd Pick San Diego Padres - Allan Dykstra - MWL Dykstra was injured his hip in a fall pretty significantly(BO Jackson injurly) prior to the draft and leave it to the Pads to not know the situation despite him playing his ball in their backyard.  Considering their beat writer knew the details of Dykstra's injury hard to give the Padres a pass on this one.  .183/.380/.317 23/22 Bb/So 8 2b 1 Hr Dykstra is showing quite a bit of patience at the plate and having some bad luck with a .238 BABIP.  That being said you would expect a 22yo 1st round pick to be performing quite a bit better in the midwest league.  ETA Never

24th Pick Philadelphi Phillies - Anthony Hewitt - Not Assigned '08 Stats .197/.256/.299 ETA not enough info

25th Pick Colorado Rockies - Christian Friedrich - SALLY League Power lefty pick out of Eastern Kentucky 5 GS 3-1 29 Ip 19 H 3 ER 1 Hr 45/8 SO/Bb 2.9 GB/FB  Friedrich has been striking out people since being drafted and is showing that he is a step above the competition level that he is currently at.  Expect a promotion to High A Modesto rather soon for Friedrich. ETA 2011

26th pick Arizona Diamond Backs - Daniel Schlereth - AA Southern League Part of that impressive Wildcats bullpen the DBacks stayed with the local talent.  8 G 9.2 IP 10 K 4 Bb 5 H 1 Hr 2 ER  Schlereth is a power lefty who could be ready if the DBacks were to climb back in the playoff picture later this season.  ETA 2010

27th Pick Minnesota Twins - Carlos Gutierrez - FSL Miami product without overpowering stuff who fits the mold as current great control Twins pitchers6 G 5 GS 1-1 1.50 ERA 30 IP 19 So 6 Bb 0 HR 16 H 2.89 FIP  Gutierrez is a pretty polished starter and could move fast if the Twins needed him to.  Without that need expect the Twins to take a patient approach and leave him in the minors until he is seasoned and absolutely ready to contribute.  ETA 2011

28th Pick New York Yankees - Gerritt Cole - Unsigned 1st or 2nd pick 2011 if he stays healthy.

29th Pick Cleveland Indians - Lonny Chisenhall - Carolina League the first junior college player takin in the '08 draft Chisenhall was said to have a outstanding bat.  .327/.383/.527 7 2b 5 Hr 9/23 Bb/So Chisenhall probably profiles more as a 3bagger than a SS and his bat should still be able to carry that position.  He was POW the last week of April in the Carolina league and has outperformed former #2 picks Moustakas and Alvarez so far.  ETA 2011

30th Pick Boston Red Sox - Casey Kelly - SALLY League Very interesting pick who also with Hicks and Posey could be the best athlete in the draft.  The Sox have agreed to let him play the field after he reaches his innings total for the season. 4-0 5 GS 25.2 IP 21 H 2 ER 23/4 So/BB A great athlete who I'm sure the Sox will probably get to give up the SS dream if he continues to throw like this in a hitter friendly league.  ETA 2012

 

2 recs  |  Comment 27 comments

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More from Royals Review

Royals Top 30 Prospects: #6-1

Dec 2009 by nwroyal - 107 comments

Comments

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how big is the talent drop off typically from top 3 to 12th?

it may be more controversial b/c it could be a much more difficult decision

by royalsreview on May 9, 2009 5:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

It varies from year to year

but from what I’ve heard teams put their own talent list together and the teams have quite a bit more variation than one might think. The NFL draft seems to have a larger consensus about who the best players are than the MLB draft does. Not shocking considering the age range and experience levels of each player as opposed to the NFL where players are all within a year or two of each other and played at similar levels.

The Marlins head of minor league development talked about how one season they ended up getting the Top 3 of 4 players on their list of overall talent with picks in the 1st, Supp 1st and 2nd round. Something similar to that would never happen in the NFL without having at least 3 of the Top 5 or 6 picks overall.

I think prior to the season the talent broke down into 3 tiers. Strasburg tier 1, Ackley and Green tier 2 and everyone else tier 3. As the season has developed it seems like it is currently Stras Tier 1 Ackley Tier 2 and then everyone else as Green as struggled to live up to the lofty expectations. I personally don’t like trying to draft for best ceiling even though Hosmer and Moustakas both fall into that level. Guys like Evan Longoria, Lincecum, Ryan Braun and Zimmerman end up reaching levels no one ever expected and they were pretty safe picks as solid contributors while the high ceiling guys end up never reaching those levels and cratering out.

This season I would prefer a draft of Scheppers if he is there or maybe Max Stassi who I view as a pretty safe bet for a High School level talent.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on May 9, 2009 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i'm not sold on scheppers

but that’s mainly because i am anti-indepenent league after the drafting of hochevar. irrational, i know. fortunately, hoch is pitching well this spring, but i still can’t help but feel mildly disappointed in him so far.

admittedly, a lot of the disappointment is based on his not being lincecum.

by marbotty on May 10, 2009 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Totally different situation

Hoch didn’t sign because he just didn’t like what the Dodgers offered. Scheppers fell in last years draft because of injury.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on May 10, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Way too early to tell

I think both Smoak and Hosmer will be pretty solid.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 12, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wanted Posey

But I didn’t want him at the $8M mark.

The guy I reallllllllllllly wanted ended up with teh fragging White Sox. I think G. Beckham is gonna be a player

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on May 10, 2009 12:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Gordon Beckham looks pretty sweet as does Smoak

but remember that Hosmer is basically playing the equivalent of his freshman year of college with a wood bat against tougher competition and playing in a pitchers environment which the SEC definitely isn’t. Give the kid sometime from what I’ve heard he was killin it in ST and it might take sometime for him to adjust. I would rather see how Hos does the second half.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on May 10, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i'm definitely excited to see what happens

i have by no means given up on the guy… just a little wary. it’s hard not to be as a royals fan, considering how few first rounders seem to work out for us.

by marbotty on May 10, 2009 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ya that's definitely true

Good news though he was 2-4 today with his first professional HR. A opposite field Homer. Burlington has all of a sudden came alive with 4 straight wins.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on May 10, 2009 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I need to find some new video of Hos

But when I watched the HS highlight tape that was on MLB.com, I was less than impressed. I am in no way saying that he sucks, or I think he will suck. I’d be a complete moron to suggest I can make that call from a 2 minute clip.

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on May 11, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Quick update for a few of the Posey fans

Posey’s Last 10 games
.179/.238/.231 his OPS has dropped to .888
Hosmer last 10
.313/.450/.563
doesn’t really mean anything but nice to see Hos waking up.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on May 11, 2009 6:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Sickels on Alvarez
Is it time to worry about Pedro Alvarez yet? He’s hitting .214/.328/.417 at Lynchburg, and has made 10 errors in 28 games at third base. He’s fanned 32 times in 29 games, but on the other hand has drawn 19 walks. The sample is still small. . .but geez, he hasn’t really played that well for over a year now. Remember his junior year at Vandy wasn’t what people expected either, though a wrist injury was the reason given. I’m gonna give him more time before pushing the panic button, but it makes you wonder.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on May 12, 2009 10:34 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Really surprised

Considering he absolutely RAKED when he was in MLB camp for spring training.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 12, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Callis on The Border Patrol

mentioned Jacob Turner as a possible 12th pick.

Still says that no one has two power prospects like the Royals do with Moustakas and Hosmer.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on May 12, 2009 10:41 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I like Turner

Seems to fit DM’s MO too – local kid, high upside, high school kid with a fluid delivery.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 12, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

he's from Georgia?

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 12, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seems like he will be pretty polished coming out of HS too

Working with Matheny (former STL catcher) and Worrell in high school according to BA. In a down year for bats seems to make sense to go with a pitcher.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on May 12, 2009 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And there are supposedly signability issues

Which don’t seem to be an issue as much with DM as with other GMs.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 12, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ya he is a Boras client. GMDM isn’t scared by something like that. Weeks was taken with the 12th pick last year and paid 1.9M so KC would probably have to pay in the neighborhood of 2-2.5M. That would leave 3.5M to toss at some highly touted DR prospect or a prospect that falls in the draft because of signability issues.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on May 12, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ya that

seemed like a good idea with Gutierrez

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on May 12, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And

We don’t have a second round pick that will cost us money.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 12, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

until someone signs Grudz!

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 12, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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