mellinger: Ouch. Just heard AL scout say "I don't think alex gordon will get past being just an...

mellinger: Ouch. Just heard AL scout say "I don't think alex gordon will get past being just an average big league player"

over 2 years ago Freneau 13 comments 0 recs |

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Would that really be that bad?

If he were an average third baseman, I’d probably take that at this point, and for a #2 overall pick, that’s probably not a terrible pick.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 1, 2009 3:39 PM EDT reply actions

yea... in a post-replacement level universe

you have to rethink what “average” is or means

by Freneau on Jun 1, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Was this one of those oh-so-rare quotes from an “anonymous” scout, who are always accountable for their claims so we can track them down later to see how reliable their evaluations were/are?

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on Jun 1, 2009 3:45 PM EDT reply actions

what really chaps my hide

is these internet nerds who just hide behind their computer screens in their mother’s basements and aren’t out there in the real world

by Freneau on Jun 1, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Gordon may not be Longoria or Braun but could easily be Zimmerman

I think his improved plate discipline is a sign that he will be an above average hitter in the majors. I think he will develop (or already has) nice power as well. Not sure he’ll ever be that great defensively so his overall stats may rate average. Still, I think above average is much more likely than average when all is said and done.

Speaking of plate discipline – I get mad everyday I see the hacktastic approach that most Royal hitters are displaying while Kila is languishing in AAA and is gaining nothing from being there.

by jsolo on Jun 1, 2009 3:53 PM EDT reply actions

If he doesn't pan out...

…it would set the franchise back significantly, that’s for sure. We shall see, though…I feel like he still has a good deal of upside.

But if Mr. Anonymous Scout ends up being right, yeah…when you draft a player as the # 2 overall pick and he ends up as an average MLB player, that’s a problem in terms of the franchise ever reaching a championship-caliber level. Especially with Hochevar, a # 1 overall pick himself, not appearing to be on the way to stardom.

You can’t miss on picks that high (though in fairness, Gordon was pretty much a consensus selection at that spot….Hochevar, certainly not).

by cookierojas73 on Jun 1, 2009 4:03 PM EDT reply actions

ouch X 2

We’re really missing his “average” bat in the lineup right now. It doesn’t seem like we have many average hitters lately……..

When is he due back again???

Tension is the enemy. - Charlie Lau

by aHorseWithNoName on Jun 1, 2009 4:19 PM EDT reply actions

Part 2

Is this scout saying that Gordon has already peaked? 2 WAR is average. This is not a construct of replacement level — it’s more accurate to say that 2 wins below average is replacement level. Gordon was 2.6 WAR last season according to FanGraphs — or 0.6 Wins above average. And that doesn’t include his above average baserunning, which EQBRR has at over 3 runs (.3) wins above average.

Rally, who does all his own stats and adjustments, has Gordon at 3.3 WAR (1.3 Wins Above Average) last season.

You know, I thikn we can resolve this. I’m guessing that the scout is using a different system fo linear weights and/or park/league difficulty adjustment than these amateur sites.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on Jun 1, 2009 4:32 PM EDT reply actions