has Mike Jacobs increased his K rate because he is being more patient?

Now the reasons behind this is of course speculation, but Jacobs has his highest unintentional walk rate, 7.9%, since 2006 when it was slightly higher (and when he was in the NL); he also has his highest K rate (both looking and swinging), 28.6%, ever in his career.

You might say that it's the move to the AL or maybe hitting against more lefty pitchers that has raised his K rate, but you wouldn't expect his BB rate to increase as well. My theory is that Seitzer talked him into being more patient (his pitch/PA is a career high this season), but the unintended consequence is that he's K'ing more, too.

He's swinging at fewer pitches (44.6%) than ever in his career, but he's also taking more strikes and fewer balls than ever.

5 months ago benfunke 13 comments 0 recs |

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you could have something there.

It may take time for it to work out if “Jake the so-far suckage Snake” actually figures out the patience adjustment.

Gives me at least a little bit of hope. If this crusher actually “masters” patience, oh hell.

Too bad it takes too long for a little adjustment to actually have a major affect, but that is the same thing that Charley Lau did for GB Pottymouth years ago. It took a half of a season but it made ungodly results.

Yeah? From what I hear, you couldn't hit water if you fell out of a f@#%ing boat.

by BillyMojo on Jun 10, 2009 5:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

or maybe he just goes back to swinging away — not that his wOBA is much different this year than in years past (.337 this year vs .342 in 2008 and .340 in 2007).

by benfunke on Jun 10, 2009 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I could live with his K's

if the Royals would have recognized his limitations and planned for him to be a platoon DH only – at least he might be marginally acceptable in that role.

(They can still accomplish this the 2nd half by moving Teahen to RF and platooning Guillen with Jacobs – but it will never happen because it’s too logical)

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Jun 10, 2009 6:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yeah if we go on the obvious stats

and NEVER give him a PA against a LHP even if the only other option is Dorothy Gale. (there’s no place like home)

But they keep saying that they know more than we do, so there MUST be something going on.

I think I’m going to grow a raccoon’s derierre on my mouth then I’ll look like a GENIOUS.

Yeah? From what I hear, you couldn't hit water if you fell out of a f@#%ing boat.

by BillyMojo on Jun 10, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'm okay with giving him a chance to prove that he can hit lefties

but he has shown that that isn’t the case.

by benfunke on Jun 10, 2009 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

short speculations

as a general rule (although, of course, these are very general aging curves) after around 27 ( Jacobs is 28), contact decreases, with both K and BB rates increasing through the end of a player’s career. That’s probably the best founded explanation…

The positive side would say he’s also just “becoming more patient.” The negative perspective would be that RHP are pitchign around him to get to crappier hitters, while in general the decline of his BB-rate after the first month or so shows that the widely-acknowledged superior AL pitching has “figured out” the “mystery” that is Mike Jacobs.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 10, 2009 11:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yeah if your lefty

and throw a curve ball Jacobs will swing and miss 99.9% of the time

by GobbleforCyoung on Jun 11, 2009 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i suppose the higher # of pitches seen could also

be a result of being pitched around (i.e., forcing him to be more patient b/c there’s nothing decent to swing at. frankly, i think that seems more likely than substantially altering his plate approach b/c of a new hitting instructor. i wonder if Seitzer is looking at this kind of stuff…i’m saying 60/40 yes.

by benfunke on Jun 11, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sure Seitzer is looking at this stuff

but the impact of coaches, at best, is not really generally amenable to connected with player performance. That’s why I stuck with generalizations about players that are pretty well established rather than the specifics of Jacobs case. Again

1) PLayers tend to regress toward an a combination of league average and their past performance. We’ve already seen this in Jacobs’ BB rate — let’s

2) As players age past 26-27, their contact rate goes; their BB and K rates go up.

3) American League pitching is superior to National League pitching.

This doesn’t conflict with what you’re saying, of course, and actually supports it in some cases. It’s not always true, but general, more patience = more walks and strikeouts. And, as above, most hitters get more patient as they get older, generally because they not only know the strikeout better, but probably also to compensate for their decreasing ability to make contact. Whether this has to do with Seitzer or not, though, well, we’ll have to see. I don’t know what the standard year-toyear variances and correlations with age adjustments are for skills like this. I was simply going with what we do know.

It will be interesting to see where Jacobs ends up. Hopefully, it’s in a uniform other than the Royals, considering he’s a DH who is currently a below average hitter.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 11, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I found the problem

In 2008, Jacobs’ plate appearances:
vs RHP: 394
vs LHP: 125

In 2009,
vs RHP: 88
vs LHP: 60

Similar to Olivo’s problem this year (facing more RHP) and Gobble’s last year (facing more RHB), they’re using Jacobs in a way that he’s not going to perform well.

DM might want to make a note of Trey’s inability to control platoon situations, and adjust for it going forward.

by Top Ramen on Jun 11, 2009 10:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

by the way, i have a question

Mike Jacobs OBP is currently .310. Is it okay to make fun of his OBP now? I’m asking because I’m still those glorious few weeks where he he a slighlty-above average OBP might still outweigh his current seasonal stats and his entire career.

thanks

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 11, 2009 12:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think you're forgetting how many homeruns he hit last year.

by hippdoghipp on Jun 11, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

just playing the devil(_finger)'s advocate

shouldn’t we be worrying about his park-adjusted wOBA (.337)?

or give him some credit for moving to the AL and hitting against more righties yet improving his OBP from last season (increase in BABIP not withstanding)?

by benfunke on Jun 11, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs