Good News, Everyone! The "Mystery" of Kyle Farnsworth's "Improvement" Revealed!
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 12, 2009 4:37 PM EDT
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Before last night's game, there had been some talk here and perhaps elsewhere that, despite a horrible first week with the Royals, perhaps Kyle Farnsworth was working out. A bunch of scoreless innings... and it wasn't just that "streak." At the moment, his ERA stands at 3.43. FanGraphs has his FIP at 3.04. His K/9 is 9.00 (league average is 6.91). His K/BB is 4.20 (league average is 1.91). His tRA is 3.07, for a 133 tRA+ when measured against other AL relievers. Knowing the Royals' current front office and their affection for these and other "advanced metrics," perhaps he's simply a good pitcher that they identified. Hmmm... maybe... but , maybe, just maybe, there's something else going on here.
Some seem to think he can't stand "pressure" situations. There isn't much statistical evidence to back this up, though. If we reject the "clutch" evaluation for position players like Alex Rodriguez, David Ortiz, Derek Jeter, Joe Carter, etc., then we should do so for pitchers as well. It simply hasn't been shown to be a repeatable skill. This is borne out by the "clutch" stat on Farnsworth's own FanGraphs player page, (you can read this for an explanation of win probability stats -- they work the same for pitchers and hitters) -- yes, this season he's been horrible, but in previous bad seasons, he's been above average. What I'm saying is, if you're looking for a "skill" explanation for what's up with the professor, this isn't it.
But what other explanation might there be for the Professor's so-called "rebound" the last few weeks that seems to be reflected in his stats?
Believe it or not, there is still plenty of useful stuff to be found at Baseball Prospectus. Of relevance here is their Quality of Batters Faced by Pitchers stat. That is, it lists the accumulated stats of the hitters the pitcher has faced, except against all pitchers, to get a sense of the quality of competition the pitcher has gone against. Although it still uses BA/OBP/SLG/OPS (why not EqA?), it serves well enough for our purposes. It would be nice if they allowed one to exclude the performance of the batters against the pitcher himself (since facing, e.g., Zack Greinke, Tim Lincecum, or Roy Halladay's opponents are obviously going to look worse as a group simply for facing those guys, or, in the cases of Horacio Ramirez, Oliver Perez, etc....).
Here is the Royals' page. Cutting to the chase: as of the time of this post, Kyle Farnsworth has faced the weakest hitting opponents of all Royals pitchers. He's a reliever, so it's not like he's biasing the sample with his awesomeness, either. Almost as interesting is checking out the AL leaderboard. Out of 255 pitchers, Kyle Farnsworth has faced the hitters with 223rd highest OPS. Hmmm...
In summary: on one hand, there's not much statistical evidence that Kyle Farnsworth has a problem with "pressure." On the other hand, there does seem to be a problem with him facing guys who can actually hit.
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Nice
That’s a pretty cool stat — I was looking for something like that when trying to figure out how well Soria was used in 2008; it seemed like he was called to face the 7-8-9-1 hitters pretty often, while the “lesser” Ramirez was used for the 3-4-5-6 hitters because it wasn’t a 9-inning save situation.
And, here are the results -
2008 Royals Relievers based on Quality of Batters Faced by Pitchers:
Peralta – 0.765
Mahay – 0.763
Gobble – 0.759
Ramirez – 0.756
Tejeda – 0.756
Duckworth 0.754
Soria – 0.750
Yabuta – 0.748
Nunez – 0.747
Hey, at least he faced tougher batters than Yabuta and Nunez!
Good info.....though I'm not sure how significant of a difference that is....(.729 compared to .726)
seems pretty miniscule to me. I think it’s a bit of a jump to conclude that he has a hard time getting “good hitters” out more than you can say the same thing for Mahay or Cruz.
In case anyone’s interested, here’s the batters Farnsy has faced (starting with the most recent):
S. Choo (single)
V.Martinez (walk)
M. Derosa (single)
L Valbuena (strikeout)
J Peralta (groundout)
T Hafner (flyout)
J Bautista (flyout)
M Scutaro (flyout)
J McDonald (strikeout)
J Chavez (groundout)
BJ Upton (strikeout)
R Brignac (lineout)
D Navarro (groundout)
B Anderson (strikeout)
AJ Pierzynski (double)
A Everett (flyout)
R Raburn (strikeout)
G Laird (groundout)
J LaRue (strikeout)
C Rasmus (flyout)
K Greene (single)
L Valbuena (strikeout)
K Shoppach (strikeout)
B Francisco (strikeout)
M DeRosa (single)
A Cabrera (flyout)
L Valbuena (groundout)
K Shoppach (lineout)
F Pie (strikeout)
G Zaun (single)
N Reimold (foulout)
L Montanez (groundout)
F Pie (flyout)
G Zaun (flyout)
N Reimold (groundout)
O Cabrera (flyout)
J Hannahan (flyout)
T Buck (strikeout)
C Figgins (groundout)
J Mathis (strikeout)
H Kendrick (strikeout)
J Rivera (groundout)
M Napoli (single)
K Morales (lineout)
T Hunter (groundout)
I Suzuki (strikeout)
Y Betancout (flyout)
F Gutierrez (infield single)
K Johjima (flyout)
K Griffey Jr (reached on error)
D Span (flyout)
N Punto (walk)
C Gomez (groundout)
B Harris (strikeout)
S Rolen (lineout)
A Lind (pop out)
V Wells (single)
A Rios (strikeout)
A Hill (single)
R Chavez (pop out)
L Overbay (strikeout)
S Rolen (single)
A Lind (flyout)
A Cabrera (gidp)
B Francisco (walk)
R Garko (flyout)
M Young (HR)
V Martinez (walk)
M DeRosa (single)
G Sizemore (pop out)
A Cabrera (double)
T Graffinino (fly out)
R Garko (foul out)
J Peralta (walk)
T Hafner (groundout)
H Matsui (strikeout)
M Teixeira (strikeout)
J Damon (strikeout)
J Dye (single)
J Thome (HR)
C Quentin (strikeout)
C Getz (single)
D Wise (flyout)
J Fields (bunt single)
by Fernando Vina School of Linguistics on Jun 12, 2009 2:30 PM EDT reply actions
interesting
my point isn’t so much relative to other Royals relievers, but just in general.
According to B-R, the average AL hitter at the moment is a .264/.335 /.423 /.759 hitter. 1.75*OBP+SLG/3 = a.336 pseudo-wOBA.
Farnsworth has faced guys hitting .254/.328/.398/.726, a .324 pseudo-wOBA.
yes, he’s gotten some good hittets out — and this whole thing is a small sample sizes. Of course, this whole thing is based on small samples sizes — but not any more than the “maybe he’s not as bad as we thought” claim. If anything, it just shows on average, he’s faced significatly below average hitters, which might explain why, in his average inning, he’s doing better. It’s certainly better than the “unclutch” or “too much pressure!” explanations. I don’t think it’s a complete explanation, of course. Again, SSS, etc. But it does go to a certain ways to show just how “helpful” he’s been this season.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 12, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe they're numbers don't look so good
Because Farnsworth retired them!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
basicially
did you know that Lee is only making $1.5M more than Farnsworth this year?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 12, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't know that
But then, Jose Guillen earns a Farnsworth more than Adam Dunn.
The world ain’t fair.
Oh and sweet futurerama reference in the title!!!!
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Jun 12, 2009 2:50 PM EDT reply actions
Even better Futurama news
Comedy Central has ordered 26 new episodes of Futurama!!!
http://ausiellofiles.ew.com/2009/06/its-official-futurama-returns.html?cnn=yes
by AxDxMx on Jun 12, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
on one hand, that's exciting
on the other hand, my longstanding theory is that shows usually outstay their welcome. Especially with how the last movie ended, I’m not sure where they can go from here.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 12, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Outstaying welcome
= better than what happened to Firefly.
"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"
what happened to Firefly?
actually, I have no idea what that show was. Was it Joss Whedon’s post-Buffy project?
I can’t believe I even want to know. Suicide now.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 12, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
It was a decent sci-fi series that was cancelled for lack of interest
You may remember a movie trailer for “Serenity”. Same show made into a movie. Movie was ok, didn’t watch the show.
If they do it right, they'll just ignore what happened in the movies
Hopefully they’ll return to what made the best episodes:
Lots of Bender, Fry, and Zapp Brannigan – less Leela heavy episodes.
It’s the same format that seems to work for the other shows:
For the Simpsons – Lisa (and to a lesser extent, Marge) heavy episodes are terrible
For American Dad – Haley heavy episodes are terrible – the best ones focus on Stan, Steve, & Roger
For Family Guy – well they’re all pretty much terrible now. I think they’re trying to see how bad they can make the show and still have people watch
totally
don’t get Futurama. Guess it’s just not my thing. It has moments, but seems drawn out to me. I’ve watched it a lot as it seems TV sucks after 10 pm now, but the only episode I liked what where Bender was floating through space and became a defacto God. That was pretty funny to see play out.
Obviously, you are not a golfer.
So is what we're saying here
That to make Farnsworth even better would be to have him in some other AL Central bullpen, coming in on middle to late relief assignments every time his team faced us?
Yeah? From what I hear, you couldn't hit water if you fell out of a f@#%ing boat.
Yes
Farnsworth would be worth every penny of his contract if he were only allowed to face the Royals’ lineup.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jun 12, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions
That's what I thought this said
nice to know that I got some back up in the
“wow I get it” department. Thanks, Sweep.
Old dog like me can still learn new tricks stats.
Yeah? From what I hear, you couldn't hit water if you fell out of a f@#%ing boat.
On Clutch
Isn’t there some thought to the idea that pitchers can be effected (affected?) by situations because they initiate action. Hitters on the other hand respond to an action that has to be repeated so often that it becomes second nature. Therefore, a pitcher standing on the mound does seem to have the ability to mind-fuck him self out of pitching well. Batters only swing like they have drilled into themselves.
Agreed or no?
Obviously, you are not a golfer.
Crash Davis said
“Don’t think, just throw.”
so, for me FWIW, agreed.
Yeah? From what I hear, you couldn't hit water if you fell out of a f@#%ing boat.
Farnsy
blows donkey dongs. Everybody already knew tthat. So why did we sign him?
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
GMDM Likes Watching
A tatted out, spec sporting, well built guy blow donkey dongs. That’s the only reason I can think of.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jun 13, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
i think this is one crucial element that has been missing from
our analyses and most everyone else’s. without QOC, a player’s WAR is subject to all kinds of variation not necessarily attributable to that player’s skill. and we’ve been tending toward using WAR as the great unifying statistic, but:
Cliff Lee 2008 WAR: 7.3
Roy Halladay 2008 WAR: 7.6
according to that, Lee and Halladay looked like similar pitchers;
take into account their quality of competition by looking at opposing hitters’ OPS, and you get a slightly different story
Cliff Lee 2008 QOC OPS: 0.735 (p.s. you’re welcome Cliff, signed Dayton Moore)
Roy Halladay 2008 QOC OPS: 0.766
this was much discussed in the Cy Young "debate" last season
with reference to these two guys. Now, you can adjust hitter linear weights for pitchers faced, and vice-versa, I believe. But note that despite the pretty large discrepancy, there’s still only about a 3 run difference between them — and Halladay still came out on top.
Smart uses of WAR don’t claim to be able to make that miniscule of a distinction anyway, even with good park-vvlue-adjustments like FG uses.
In addition, tRA has Lee as the better pitcher last season, at 7.6 WAR, and Halladay at 7.1.
Rally gets still different results. Instead of using FIP, he uses RA and then adjusts for defense. He also takes the pitcher’s own fielding into account (keep in mind each of these sets uses different park adjustments, too, and probably a difference way of accounting for replacement level). He has Halladay at 6.6 WAR, and Lee at 7.3.
Using my Colin Wyer’s BaseRuns-FIP with my usual pitching-WAR SQL, I get Halladay at 8.8 WAR, and Lee at 8.0 even.
So, while I would have voted for Halladay, I’m pretty comfortable saying they were similar pitchers last season. I don’t think all these differences indicate a problem with the “WAR” idea, anyway. This isn’t like calculating batting average or obp — it’s difference views on what makmes a player valuable. Personally, I think the variety that points to health in sabermetric research.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 13, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
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