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Miguel Olivo's Fascinating, Remarkably Dumb, Almost Useful, 2009 Season

Jose Guillen shocks no one by endorsing the Olivo Plan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

Jose Guillen shocks no one by endorsing the Olivo Plan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Thanks to a .333/.364/.786 run in his last 44 plate appearances, Miguel is now hitting .257/.287/.493 on the season. His slugging percentage is easily the highest of his career, as is his wOBA, which now stands at .335. He's outperforming the projection systems. Now, it needs to be pointed out that that wOBA total is still just the sixth best on a very bad offensive team, and is barely ahead of the figure put up by the exiled John Buck (.331).

And this, essentially, is part of the Miguel Olivo experience: even when he's good, he's still so incredibly bad that he isn't really good. On the other hand, he does some things so well, that his rather glaring flaws are almost, read, almost, canceled out.

Commenting on the Buck-Olivo Catcher Controversy back in April, I wrote:

From where I sit, Olivo is a wildly more talented player, yet is no more effective. Olivo's cartoonish approach at the plate, which is legitimately one of the worst in the sport, tells us two things: 1) he isn't thinking up there and 2) he's like 15% Vlad Guerrero or he wouldn't be at this level at all. Buck is just a guy who swings and misses a lot, but who can hit the ball far when he connects with it.

 

As has been pointed out earlier on this site, he's reached first base via striking out on a wild pitch (3) than he has by simply walking (2). This is, without hyperbole, one of the more amazing "achievements" of the decade.

Without meaning to comment on how he might be off the field, which could easily be the exact opposite, let's just get this out there: Miguel Olivo is one of the dumbest hitters in the game. He makes the same mistakes, over and over and over and over and over again. And yet, for about the last month, he's almost made it work.

Star-divide

Imagine a guy in college. He's just a generic guy: middling grades, middling major, middling intelligence, middling connections, etc. He's just a guy. However, there's one thing about him that's different: he makes great hamburgers. He started cooking in high school, and while he's never branched out from hamburgers, he's definitively mastered the genre. Everyone says so. At the beginning of his junior year he decides to drop out of school and start a restaurant. A hamburger place. He has no money, but he's going to borrow what he can, live at home, and max out six credit cards. Everyone tells him this is a bad idea. People send him emails pointing out that 90% of restaurants fail. Moreover, people politely tell him that while his burgers are good, you can get burgers anywhere. Cheaply too. They tell him that he knows nothing about working full time, much less managing or owning a business. They tell him that his patented "blood burger" -- a favorite at his frat cookouts -- is actually a health hazard and could not only ruin his business, but legitimately kill someone.

Hamburger man doesn't listen to anyone. He goes forward with his idiotic plan. He opens a burger stand in a strip mall in the bad part of town, works 100 hour weeks, lives at home, takes the bus, burns his bridges with every friend he has asking for money and "volunteers" on weekends, etc. Somehow, however, because of the hamburgers he makes, he survives. His talent, his singularly common and easily replaceable talent for making hamburgers is somehow also so strong that he's found some business. Five years later he's still in debt, still lives at home, still only has one store and still works 100 hour weeks. He is not thriving, but he's eeked out a particularly greasy existence. He is not a success story, but he's still open.

That's Miguel Olivo. Or at least, Miguel Olivo on a hot streak.

What I keep coming back to is this: essentially, Miguel is both the best and worst Royals hitter. Somewhere inside him there was once a nascent being that could have been an All-Star, possibly even a Hall of Fame player. But he never overcame his limitations and instead began to be defined by them. He's a different kind of three-true-outcomes player: his outcomes are miss, popup, home run.

Look at the AL "leaders" in strikeout rate (min 130 PAs), hmm, who doesn't fit:

K % BB %
C. Davis 45.5 6.5
K. Shoppach 39.7 8.3
J. Saltalamacchia 38.3 6.7
C. Pena 36.0 16.7
OLIVO 34.7 1.9

 

He controls the at bat about as much as Tristan da Cunha controls the Atlantic.

Olivo's contact rate is just 47.3 %, second worst in the AL behind Chris Davis (who I guess we should expect in a Royal uniform by 2012). Olivo's o-swing number -- the percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone -- is at an astounding 44.9%, easily tops in the AL.

When you consider these factors, it's amazing that Miguel ever gets a hit, let alone hits a homer. And yet, every so often, intermixt amidst hundreds and hundreds of completely idiotic swings, Miguel runs into one and hits a homer. He's taken an astoundingly dumb and unlikely path to being not quite useful out there, and even in many senses beat the odds to do so. Yet another fitting emblem of the Dayton Moore Era.

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FWIW

Royals position player WAR so far this season and the dollar value that they’ve earned so far (per Fangraphs)

1. Crisp, 1.0 WAR, $4.5M
2. Callaspo, 0.9 WAR, $4.1M
3. Olivo, 0.9 WAR, $4.0M (actual salary $2.7M)
4. Teahen, 0.7 WAR, $3.3M
5t. Bloomquist, 0.5 WAR, $2.0M
5t. Buck, 0.5 WAR, $2.0M

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jun 16, 2009 4:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

interesting...

did I have to write about Olivo to get you back on the site? :)

I think with all the playing tim escalators in MO’s contract he’s going to be closer to 3.5 million earned this year:

  1. performance bonuses based on games, plate appearances:

    * $25,000 each for 75, 80, 85, 90, 95, 100 games
    * $50,000 each for 105, 110, 115, 120 games
    * $25,000 each for 275, 300, 325, 350, 375, 400 PAs
    * $50,000 each for 425, 450, 475, 500 PAs

by royalsreview on Jun 16, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It was Crisp that brought me back in

And the fact that Katie is sleeping for a few consecutive hours. BTW, I don’t like Olivo much at all. I think re-signing him was probably the second stupidest thing Moore did this offseason. The sooner he’s gone the better. But one has to give credit where credit is due. But then one has to get into the issue of defensive metrics for catchers.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jun 16, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ok, I'll bite

What's the stupidest thing Dayton Moore did this offseason?

by RoyalsFanInBillings on Jun 16, 2009 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

what's the third?

i’m pulling for signing Jacobs even though we have a logjam at 1B.

by benfunke on Jun 17, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Only if we did not have Jacobs...

Gload would be the firstbaseman, and Butler would be the DH.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jun 17, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i was thinking of Kila/Butler splitting 1B/DH

with Teahen as one of the backups. and Guillen DH’ing some of the time

by benfunke on Jun 17, 2009 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But he's hitting well right now!

And hot streaks like this aren’t just streaks! They are often returns to true talent level.

Remember how badly Jose Guillen started out last season? And some people said he sucked, but others said that he would come around, that he never hit in April. And come around he did. Starting sometime in May, he went on a torrential display of offensive prowess (which, remarkably, featured even less walks that even Miguel Olivo typically displayers). Widely acknowledged expert analyst declared the signing “great.”

And so Dayton Moore was proved right about Guillen after all, and everyone lived happily ever after.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 16, 2009 4:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

And hot streaks like this aren’t just streaks! They are often returns to true talent level.

Raul Ibanez is one of my favorite people in baseball.

by royalsreview on Jun 16, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Do you suppose that Poz has a piece of parchment, upon which he only writes...

with his finest calligraphy fountain pen, the names of the 3 (or maybe 4 someday) people who are on his official “NOT My Favorite People in Baseball List”? Which he keeps safely locked away inside a floor safe inside his bedroom closet, never to be revealed to anyone, and which must be destroyed upon his death.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on Jun 16, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

anyone get the idea that Trey Hillman is just trying to get on the list?

“I didn’ t know you were going to ask me a baseball question.”

Just stunnning. Simply stunning.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 16, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

not to hijack a proper Olivo discussion

but the last three things I’ve read from Poz have really annoyed me, albeit in different ways, the most recent being his pitch count/Nolan worship piece for SI

I eagerly await his upcoming column on how the dodgers are winning because of Joe Torre’s style & grace

by royalsreview on Jun 16, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

which were the other two?

Haven’t read the Nolan Ryan piece yet.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 16, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nolan Ryan piece

I thought it was kinda dumb too. Of course we all WANT more complete games. But stretching pitchers to 125 pitches isn’t necessarily the way to do it. And 100 isn’t necessarily an arbitrary number used for its roundness – there are studies that show pitchers deterioriate around that point.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/joe_posnanski/06/15/james.pitchcounts/index.html?eref=T1

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 16, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ibanez and his SI article on Lebron/Cleveland

the latter was one of the more self-absorbed things ever..

not in a terribly noxious way, just … the entire article was just Poz talking about how honored/horrified (because of the “cover curse”) the people of cleveland were that he was writing a cover story about lebron

it was very pozesque and everything, but it didn’t ring true to me (It isn’t 1975), and there was no there there

by royalsreview on Jun 16, 2009 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Alex Gordon might be on it

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 16, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Olivo reminds me of

this kid I played baseball with when I was growing up. Chad had the most talent of any other kid on the team (hitting-wise at least). He could hit just about anything, and hit it hard and far. One game, he was so eager to get a hit, and there was a pitch that literally came in over the plate ABOVE the level of his helmet. He just turned the bat almost perpendicular with the ground and laced a shot off the top-half of the fence in left-center. It was one of those times when you see him doing it, and you’re yelling “No, no, NO…YES!”

Miguel’s problem was that he was like Chad. But he never got past the 12-year-old, “I can hit anything” attitude. Meanwhile, pitchers got a LOT better, and had all sorts of stuff that can easily fool players like that (i.e. pitches that have any change in trajectory whatsoever between their release and the plate). Miguel didn’t care. He knew what worked for him, because he hit lots of home runs when he was 12, and that was it for him. He had it figured out. No sense in changing. Ever.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on Jun 16, 2009 5:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I know my overall negativity probably ended up coming through in the end...

but yea, there is a good side to olivo at the plate that you touched on… physically, in terms of just mashing a baseball, he’s probably one of the best guys on the team, but he does have a little league approach up there

by royalsreview on Jun 16, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, well it's cool when you're 12 years old and he's the best player on your little league team

It’s incredibly frustrating when he’s the “starting” catcher on your favorite MLB team and he’s being paid millions to hack like that.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on Jun 16, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey

That kinda looks like one of those guys on the Reds team

eyes …. are completely closed

by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Jun 16, 2009 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

sort of

curiously enough, Tucson Royals’ preimilary study with hit fl/x show Olivo’s top balls to be, on average, the least hard hit of all the Royals.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 16, 2009 5:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

meant as a reply to RR

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 16, 2009 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

interesting

could it be the pop flies weighng down the average?

by royalsreview on Jun 16, 2009 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

well, I doubt it

those averages from TucsonRoyal were the averages of the 10 and 20 hardest hit balls by each individual player..

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 16, 2009 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

somehow, it's just hilarious

do you think WIllie B. lords it over Miggie?

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 17, 2009 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yea

I imagine they talk often

by royalsreview on Jun 17, 2009 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Roger Twibell disagrees with you.

I can’t get too worked up over Olivo as a one-off, but as we’ve discussed before, it’s the combination of all DM’s no-plate-discipline signings that scare me.

Poor Kila doesn’t have a chance.

And seriously, can Twibell shut up about playing golf? I miss DA.

by hippdoghipp on Jun 16, 2009 5:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Hey, Twibell's got the 50-60 year old, white male, golf-playing demographic...

all wrapped up. I’m surprised that 610 isn’t getting crazy ad revenue from Viagra, Caduet, Extenze, Tommy Bahama, etc.

I don’t listen to his show very often, but the few times I’ve heard more than a minute or two of one of his shows, I have not heard a single bit of actual insight or analysis about anything of substance.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on Jun 16, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What did old Roger say?

He has the most milquetoast sports talk show I have ever heard. The guys on NPR are more exciting.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 16, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Milquetoast to the extreme

Before Buck got hurt he always complained that Olivo didn’t play more. His main arguments were (1) Olivo’s arm is stronger, and (2) the Royals announced that Olivo was the starter during the offseason, so Olivo should be the starter.

Twibell is typical old-school media establishment guy. No analysis beyond the typical cliches and narratives that old sports writers/announcers like. Basically like listening to Ryan and Frank go on and on about how good teams score runs by advancing runners from 2nd to 3rd. Situational hitting, blah blah blah.

Yes, I know no one makes me listen.

by hippdoghipp on Jun 16, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep HippDog

It’s been said on here before.

(when the Overlord Royal held up 3 fingers, he didn’t mention Soren Petro’s name did he>)

Yeah? From what I hear, you couldn't hit water if you fell out of a f@#%ing boat.

by BillyMojo on Jun 16, 2009 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I liked him better the first time

When his name was “Mark Quinn”

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 16, 2009 5:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Weren't there people here

actually giving ear service to the idea of trading Greinke to the Rangers for a package centered on Davis rather than simply laughing their asses off?

Yikes.

This space for rent.

by jonfmorse on Jun 16, 2009 7:55 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

really?

i don’t remember people being too down with that

by royalsreview on Jun 16, 2009 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

there were packages with Texas that I was willing to consider...

none of them were centered around Davis though. I wouldve started with Andrus, Holland/Feliz+

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jun 17, 2009 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I said I'd consider it

If we got some of Texas’ top prospects.

Did anyone expect Greinke to get off to a historic start though?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 17, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They weren't "down with it"

but there were some people who were saying they wanted Davis, anyway.

This space for rent.

by jonfmorse on Jun 16, 2009 8:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Olivo

I find it amusing that a player whose #1 job is to analyze how to get out opposing batters can, apparently, learn absolutely nothing from that task that he can apply to his own batting efforts. You would think, knowing how important walks are from his pitcher’s point of view, along with pitch counts, he would at least attempt to have some amount of plate discipline himself.

I think RR nailed it when he said that Olivo must have at least some level of Guerrero like talent, in that it is sorta impressive to be able to slug anything at all with that hacktastic of an approach.

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Jun 17, 2009 10:55 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

THIS

The cognitive disonance from his plate approach to his “mastery of the catching arts” is what makes this so frustrating. How can these things coexist in the same body? It makes you wonder whether anyone really “catches a great game”, lol.

Seriously, they should start slipping his at bats into the film sessions, maybe with the face and jersey fuzzied out and ask him how to get this guy out.

On a related note, I think if I were a catcher i think I would have it written in my contract that i was the “designated catcher” for the best player on the team.

by Big Guy on Jun 17, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

maybe all his strikeouts are just

research on how to call a better game.

by benfunke on Jun 17, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If it's research, then it's not very advanced

He’s using the same lab rat, and the same potentially fatal drug, EVERY time. “Gee, I wonder what will happen if I inject the rat with cyanide in the FRONT leg this time instead of the hind leg.”

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on Jun 17, 2009 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

More than likely he just fails to recognize pitches very well

So he gets burned by the slider a lot. The difference in perspectives may have somethign to do with it too.

by AxDxMx on Jun 17, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Anyone know of an available stat for HR% on balls put in play?

piggybacking on loyal2sdad’s comment (and RR), but just wondered if Olivo must be near the top in HR% — not on HR per at bat, but on HR per balls actually put in play.

by benfunke on Jun 17, 2009 1:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

His HR/FB% is 28.1% in 2009

Compared to his career average of 13.3%. If I understand this ratio correctly, then 28.1% of the time Miguel hits the ball in the air this year, it’s not coming down until it’s gone over the fence. Judging by his career numbers, though, I wouldn’t expect him to keep this up.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on Jun 17, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also, just doing some quick math in my head (which is always dangerous)

Miguel has put 102 balls in play this year. So far, 9 of those hits are HR’s. Which means his HR/BIP ratio is 8.82%.

I have no idea what any of that might mean.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on Jun 17, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't know if anyone else has heard this

but in talking with some casual baseball fans at a LSU Tigers game, they informed that the reason guys like Vladimir Guerrero or Olivo (ie Dominican players) hack like that is because of a philosophy that you’re not going to get out of the Dominican unless you can hit the long ball. According to them that’s where the hacktasticness of these players comes from (I didn’t know Mark Quinn was from the DR)

Curious if anyone else heard this.

by Your_Moms_Boyfriend on Jun 17, 2009 3:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

yes, I have heard this

There is supposedly an oldsaying among Dominican ballplayers that “you can’t walk off of the island.”

Of course, this doesn’t seem to have effected Manny Ramirez too much (although I think he went to HS in NYC). Or David Ortiz. Or Albert Pujols. Or Carlos Pena. Or Esteban German….

A few examples doesn’t make any point, really. I guess we’d have to do a larger study comparing players of different national origin and their walk rates to the league averages in the seasons that they played.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 17, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

my point being that I'm familiar with the stereotype

but I’m not sure how much it is or isn’t based in reality

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 17, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Its also kinda silly

Because I rather doubt too many American HS kids got attention from college and pro scouts by their tremendous ability to walk.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 17, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jeremy Brown scoffs at this

But you are right. Scouts are drawn to hitting, whether you are American, Canadian, Dominican or Egyptian.

by kcbottom9th on Jun 17, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would imagine that the smarter players from the Dominican

realize it is easier to hit for power, when you are more selective. But some get so good at hacking, they never have to adjust.

Berroa was good enough for awhile. Alexei Ramirez seems to be the second coming of Berroa and is nosediving faster (though he is from Cuba).

by AxDxMx on Jun 17, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Olivo

Olivos numbers are still horrible, and that’s after being boosted by a hot streak. His lack of walking is totally pathetic. He doesn’t learn from his mistakes at all. Jacobs is the same way. If I was pitching against the Royals, I would throw Olivo and Jacobs nothing but sliders out of the zone. They will both strike out on 3 pitches everything. I’m sick of them killing rallys by striking or poping out.

by TampaRoyal on Jun 17, 2009 5:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i can’t stand to watch the olivo at bats. almost looks like a ken harvey 10 point homerun swing on any pitch down and away. but he’s almost got the lead in HR’s. i don’t know why anybody throws a real strike to him

My stories a lot like yours only more interesting because it involves robots!

by AvilesRotY on Jun 17, 2009 6:02 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Maybe he just can't distinguish a fastball from a breaking ball quickly enough

He could be an extremely patient hitter, but if his brain tells him all these pitches are where he wants them, you can’t blame him for swinging. Your only options are to trust yourself to identify whether to swing at a pitch as it is coming at you or to decide before the pitch whether to swing, which probably won’t work except in special circumstances.

Not that I really want to defend Olivo, but I question how much of his approach is "dumb"ness (probably some) and how much of it is just his limited ability to identify pitches well, which I’m not sure how much you can really improve at this point.

by PopeSoria on Jun 17, 2009 6:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

limited ability to identify pitches? isn’t that how he knows whether to dive or stay crouched when he’s catching? catchers should be the best at picking up spin

My stories a lot like yours only more interesting because it involves robots!

by AvilesRotY on Jun 17, 2009 7:36 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

weak

he knows whats coming

by PopeSoria on Jun 17, 2009 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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