Is it time for Kyle Davies to permanently move to the pen?
by RoyalsRetro on Jun 20, 2009 12:47 PM EDT
32 comments
[ed. note] Looks like Davies will be headed to Omaha instead.
It doesn't seem that long ago that we were trying to come up with clever nicknames for our "Big Three" - Greinke, Meche and Davies, and discussing whether it was time to ink Hiram to a long-term deal. Ah, innocent days of yore. The awful truth is that since those halcyon days of April 19, 2009, Kyle Davies has made eleven starts with the following results:
2-7 6.64 ERA 61 IP 33 K 33 BB 68 H 49 R 45 ER, .887 OPS against, -1.36 WPA
That's right, over his eleven starts, Kyle has made everyone look like Todd Helton. The club has lost eight of those eleven starts. He has made three quality starts over that period, yet in even his good starts, he seems to labor, nibbling the corners, barely escaping out of jams much like MacGyver, using just a 89 mph, poorly commanded fastball, a weather vane, some WD-40, and the Earth's rotational axis.
Kyle Davies now has 91 starts, 467 innings as a starter, and a 5.65 ERA to show for it. This is not a small sample size. His top comp at Baseball-Reference.com is.....Runelvys Hernandez. His top comp through age 24 is.....Jamey Wright. It is kismet.
Is it time for Kyle Davies to make a permanent move to the pen? Eric Gagne posted terrible strikeout-to-walk ratios at age 24. He improved at age 25, moved to the pen at age 26, and became the game's most dominant closer. Joe Nathan posted more walks than strikeouts at age 25. By age 28 he was a dominant closer for the Twins. Davies wouldn't even be the first wild starter converted to successful reliever in Kansas City - Robinson Tejeda has been a modest success thus far.
I'm not saying Davies will or can become a dominant closer. At this point, I'd settle for "useful reliever". But going forward I'm not very confident he can be much of a starting pitcher. I realize there aren't many good options in Omaha to replace him, but we do have useful filler like Bruce Chen, who recently tossed his third shutout, who can be a warm body in the rotation to get Davies started on his new journey - the life of a reliever.
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Food for thought
although the fact that Bruce Chen has become a real option for the Royals really, um…
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on Jun 20, 2009 1:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We're gonna die
"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"
by NHZ on Jun 20, 2009 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
In predicting who's going to start the next time Davies spot comes up
keep in mind the following quote from the Kaegel article:
Chen, who broke into the Major Leagues in 1998 with the Atlanta Braves, has a 35-37 record with a 4.63 ERA in 242 games (112 starts). His last effective season was 2005, when he was 13-10 with a 3.83 ERA as part of the Baltimore Orioles’ rotation.
by Top Ramen on Jun 20, 2009 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
My guess is
They get a spot start out of the pen. A Tejeda/Wright piggyback or something.
by kcbottom9th on Jun 21, 2009 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wish there was a "Super-Rec" option
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on Jun 21, 2009 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Damn that John Buck not calling aggressive enough games for Davies
he really needs Olivo to catch him. That should solve his problems! "
Oops….
by Top Ramen on Jun 20, 2009 1:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Davies to Omaha?
which middle infielder are we promoting?
by BHWick on Jun 20, 2009 1:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Aren't They All
Here already?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jun 20, 2009 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I Thought He
Plays 3B.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jun 20, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Give Irving Falu a shot!
His .686 OPS can’t be any worse than TPJ.
Then rotate 2B/SS every other inning!!
1st and 2nd: Callaspo/TPJ
3rd and 4th: Hulett/Callaspo
5th and 6th: Hernandez/Hulett
7th and 8th: Bloomquist/Hernandez
9th: Bloomquist/Falu
Gotta save Willie for the grittiest innings.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jun 20, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I guess I was wrong about Davies being out of options
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on Jun 20, 2009 2:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Davies Optioned to Omaha and Robinson Tejeda Call Up
Bloomquist. God? Or just an illusion? You be the judge.
by focs on Jun 20, 2009 2:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I've Always Thought
Davies’ “stuff” looked more like a pen denizen’s than a starter.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jun 20, 2009 2:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
gotta love the edge of
Davies walking off the mound thinking he had strike 3… only for it to be a ball, and him to give up a homer on the next pitch
by BHWick on Jun 20, 2009 2:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
love it in the way
that I love to put my face in the palm of my hand and laugh/cry at the same time
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Jun 20, 2009 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gracias, Señor Davies, for pitching moderately well!
Don’t thank me, thank the moon’s gravitational pull.
by marbotty on Jun 21, 2009 10:55 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
rec'd
although this should somehow be used with Banny for maximum effect
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on Jun 21, 2009 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Something to consider
Davies arm is probably tired.
I can recall him hitting 93-94 on the radar gun when he had those two or three dominating starts in April. Yesterday he topped out at 91, avg FB velo was 90.12
He’s lost a couple ticks on his fastball, and I will give two possible reasons:
1.) the 126 pitch outing in Toronto didn’t help, but I think it’s more of an issue of throwing too many pitches in one inning. Kyle always has one or two tough innings where he really labors and ends up throwing 30-40 pitches. The start in Tampa where he threw 114 pitches in 5.2 IP could’ve done just as much harm as his next start in Toronto.
2.) He’s been throwing his changeup a lot more lately, and throwing too many changeups can make your arm drag when u throw a fastball. Although he could be throwing his changeup more because his fastball sucks. It’s a chicken-egg thing.
Anyways, I think Davies just needs to rest his arm, get it back to full strength, and hopefully be back in KC soon
by gilmeche55 on Jun 21, 2009 12:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
interesting observations
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on Jun 21, 2009 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Normally, I'm all for trying a failed starter in the bullpen
However, not so sure about Davies:
In 2009, he has allowed 8 ER in 14 1st innings, and 8 ER in 14 2nd innings. ERA for each inning is 5.14
Going back to 2008, he allowed 4 ER in 21 1st innings, but 11 ER in 20.1 2nd innings. That translates to 1.71 and 4.87 respectively, for a combined figure of 3.27
If we are to assume he will never make it as a competent big league starter, then I guess it wouldn’t hurt to move him to the pen just to see what happens – but I’m not holding my breath on this working all that well either.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
by loyal2sdad on Jun 22, 2009 3:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So, basically, what you're saying is that Hiram might just be completely horrible as a pitcher...
UNLESS you can put him in the bullpen and convince him that his first 30 or so warmup pitches are actually going to count? THEN put him into the game and he’ll be fine.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jun 22, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was my first thought
He is normally quite awful in the first inning. He has a .927 OPS against in his career in the first, compared to .749 in the second. He actually gets better as he goes along.
However, that is when he is in a starters’ mindset. Maybe he’s pacing himself or something like that. If he just goes in knowing he is only tossing one inning, perhaps we get different results?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jun 22, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe he's saving one of his pitches?
When he can’t really afford to and would be better off using them all up front?
by PopeSoria on Jun 22, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And/or trying to be the opposite of Hochevar...
in not gassing himself out too early. Being TOO cautious about coming out with his best/hardest stuff because he wants to make sure he can get through 6+ innings.
I don’t think Kyle has ever really had to learn HOW to pitch up until recently. Wasn’t he awarded with something like “The Best Young PItcher in America” when he was 14 and 15 (I thought I heard Lefebvre talking about it)? I think going through that just gave him the mindset that he knew what he was doing, and shouldn’t have to listen to anybody about pitching. Kind of the same approach as Olivo…"I"ve been hitting home runs ever since I was a 12 year old in the DR, so nobody can tell me how to hit. I know what I’m doing."
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jun 22, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe
Still, if he could get down to just using 1 or 2 pitches, and just worry about those… well, I just don’t see how he could be worse in the pen.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on Jun 22, 2009 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His fastball should jump 1-3 MPH without having to pace himself as a starter
I might have been one of earliest to suggest Davies as future reliever, but with no other young pitchers pushing for a spot in the rotation, I am certainly fine with giving him the rest of the year to work things out as a starter. He can always be converted to a reliever in the offseason.
by Gopherballs on Jun 22, 2009 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does command improve in the pen?
That seems to be Hiram’s biggest problem.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jun 22, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sometimes, sometimes not, but it is not as important in the pen
There is not the same direct relationship between command and a move to the bullpen as there is with velocity (and strikeouts and to a lesser degree, HR rates). But if the pitcher is striking out more players and giving up fewer HRs or at least inducing less contact, a reliever can get by with less than perfect placement. Robinson Tejeda is a good example.
Relievers also get the benefit of playing platoon matchups — both his and the reliever who replaces him with someone on base.
As d_f mentioned, throwing fewer pitches might lead to refinement of the ones he keeps. With Davies, I am not sure which ones to keep — looking at fangraphs pitch-type values (scroll down), his change up has historically been his worst pitch, but he is getting good results this year. His curve has been effective in the past, but not this year. Despite good results in the past, it looks like he has scrapped his slider for the most part this year. A change and curve are generally better pitches to throw to opposite handed hitters due to their movement, so maybe a reduced repertoire of fastball/cutter, change, and curve would help his consistency with those pitches and allow him to keep pitching to left-handed hitters.
by Gopherballs on Jun 22, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
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