The Saga of Gil Meche's back
The lastest part of the Gil Meche injury soreness saga is news that he will pitch today to test his "dead arm".
But there's a claim spreading like the Swine Flu out there. The myth that "Gil Meche is better after throwing lots of pitches, therefore Trey shouldn't get so much heat for keeping him out there for 132 pitches"
It is a complete and total logical fallacy for one concrete reason. Gil Meche had back pain. And was put out to pitch over 115 pitches multiple times after the back pain flared up. Gil Meche's performance coming off of high pitch outings is as relevant as your feelings coming off of a twinkie bender. Just because something feels or looks good doesn't mean it's good for you, or good management. And what Gil Meche did at times when he wasn't coming off of game-ending back tightness doesn't factor into the question of "Should we keep a pitcher out there for 115+ pitches after he left a game with back injuries). Let's go more in-depth.
For those of you out of the loop, the back pain story goes back to April 28th when "[Meche] left the game early with tightness in his lower back"
In the next two games, Meche threw 116 and 120 pitches. To review that point. In two starts after leaving a game with back problems, the same back problems he had since January. Meche threw over 115 pitches twice. Here's some quick division here for you all. 116 pitches over 6 innings is 19.3 pitches per inning. 120 pitches over 5 2/3 IP is 21.2 pitches per inning.
Certainly that's a new method of back injury treatment.
Following those games, Meche got rocked by the Orioles, got past the last place Indians, and had his shortest outing of the year against the Tigers. Which meant that it was time to change things up and move slightly on the mound.
Then he threw 110 pitches (18.3 pitches per inning), 115 pitches (16.4 pitches per inning), and 132 pitches (14.7 pitches per inning).
The 132 pitch outing and following problems didn't just occur after lots of tame starts. Gil Meche wasn't a chipper buck picking daisies, before getting a 132 pitch outing and having his career go downhill. Arm injuries tend to accumulate more often than "randomly show up" (the random injuries would be more of having something blow out unexpectedly). Gil Meche, by the reports we know, was experiencing back pains, and was kept out there to pitch two of his heaviest workloads directly after he left a game with back tightness. This is how not to handle someone who you pay $11M to and who is the "number one starter" (according to media figures who don't want to give the best pitcher in the AL the honor of being the #1 guy on the Royals).
The question to consider here is not "Was Gil Meche good after heavy work loads?", the Question is "Is it worth it to put Gil Meche out there for 116 pitches, 120 pitches, 115 pitches, 132 pitches when Meche has an acknowledged back problem?"
Much to Trey Hillman's credit, he isn't all that bad with pitch counts. But in this situation, it'll take a big turnaround for him to come out looking good in regards to his decision making skills in the Saga of Gil Meche's back.
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Background
this spawned out of getting a direct message on Twitter from a KC star writer on the topic. After finding that I couldn’t directly message him back, I went to work on this.
Still suffering from the greatest robbery of all time: The stealing of the 1994 AL Central title from the Royals
What was the message?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jun 29, 2009 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions
OMG Dayton n me lunch @ teh The Kougar re: Treys awesomeness
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 29, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
just something about how Meche is better in starts after throwing lots of pitches
Still suffering from the greatest robbery of all time: The stealing of the 1994 AL Central title from the Royals
ooops...
The Associated Press reports Kansas City Royals SP Sidney Ponson tested positive for a stimulant while pitching in the 2009 World Baseball Classic and has been banned from international competition for two years. Major League Baseball will not suspend Ponson. The International Baseball Federation said Ponson tested positive for Phentermine, a stimulant and appetite suppressant.
I haven't heard anything about Meche's back since the game he left.
Assuming you’re right, how long should the Royals baby Gil Meche because he had a sore back at one point in time. April 28 was the last time there was any indication that Gil’s back wasn’t feeling right, and you’re using that as an argument for why they should limit his pitch count in the middle of June.
If the Royals ever make the playoffs, should they drop Zack Greinke from the rotation because he had a social anxiety problem 5+ years ago, and pitching in a pressure situation in the playoffs might be bad for him?
I am Billy Butler's Gold Glove.
The article I linked to
had Gil Meche noting that his back was sore in May all the way to the time that he moved on the rubber. So he was throwing 116 & 120 while still hurt. And he said he was feeling back pain since January.
And if Gil hurt his arm and shoulder by masking the back pain, I wouldn’t be shocked. But it would make the usage of Gil since the back straining plainly irresponsible.
But if you want to toast a guy’s arm who you’re paying $11M, go right ahead. And if you want to make an irrelevant comparison, go for it.
When the phrase “dead arm” is being used, that’s pretty serious. It’s not going to go just go away short of either going on the DL or Benny Hinn visiting Gil.
Still suffering from the greatest robbery of all time: The stealing of the 1994 AL Central title from the Royals
Sorry, I didn’t actually go read the article. Been super busy at work today, and just checked RR during a quick break I had. So that puts the 116 and 120 in question, but I still don’t think it’s that relevant at this point. Sure, it would be stupid to have him throw 132 pitches in that situation if he’s sore/tired in any part of his body. But it still doesn’t seem to me like his back had anything to do with it.
The question of whether he should have been left out there for 132 pitches is a question that deserves to be asked, but I don’t see the back problems as having any relevance in the discussion. That was kind of the point of my “irrelevant comparison.”
Is claiming that Gil Meche is better after starts with a high pitch count stupid? Yes.
Should Gil Meche have been allowed to finish his 132 pitch game? Debatable, but I wasn’t bothered by it at the time.
Is Meche’s sore back from April and May related to his arm problems in June? Possible, but seems unlikely.
Is Meche’s 132 pitch game related to his arm problems? Seems a little more likely, but there’s no way to know. He threw 129 pitches in a game in April last year, stayed healthy all year, and had a pretty good season. I don’t think 3 additional pitches were the tipping point between “beginning of a successful season” and “devastating injury.”
I am Billy Butler's Gold Glove.
When it comes to an injury correction
if you were to change your routine to make up for a back injury, there is a probability of messing up your arm or shoulder due to doing something unfamiliar
Still suffering from the greatest robbery of all time: The stealing of the 1994 AL Central title from the Royals
That game,
I had just finished vending for the night, checked out of our vending room, and took a quick peek in the vomitorium, and was UTTERLY SHOCKED to see Meche come out for the 9th. While the rest of the crowd roared for the shutout, I fumed and vented to anybody who would listen about how nonsensical the whole thing was. (I really need to be more careful while still in uniform!)
Hope I’m wrong, but this is beginning to sound like it won’t end well.
You know what bothers me the most about the whole incident? The fact that Trey had decided to (rightly) pull Meche after 8, then LET MECHE TALK HIM INTO PITCHING THE 9TH! To me that was far WORSE than if he just stupidly decided it himself, because he needs to be the manager and do what’s best for the team, which INCLUDES the long-term picture. I know Trey has to keep his players positive and happy so they perform well, but dismissing what he did as a “veteran courtesy” DOESN’T CUT IT.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
You should be happy to know that
it’s Gil’s decision if he pitches on Wednesday, not the decision of Trey or anything involving an MRI or doctors
Still suffering from the greatest robbery of all time: The stealing of the 1994 AL Central title from the Royals
There's quite a bit of documented evidence in the 132-pitch game thread about how bad an idea I thought it was
I even did some legwork, getting stats for every game after a 115 pitch outing. It turned out he wasn’t bad, but, still- that’s bad long term…
by sterlingice on Jun 30, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
ask
Chad Durbin about it sometime
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

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