Royals Review Prospect Pulse: June

by nwroyal on Jun 3, 2009 10:40 AM EDT in Royals Minor Leagues Comment 30 comments

Things get a lot more interesting this month in the prospect pulse. One of our top prospects bounce back from a difficult first month and a couple of our top pitching prospects make their full season debut. Later this month, our short season affiliates will start playing. The best part of minor league season is when all 7 affiliates are up and running and draftees from next week will start getting assigned. Speaking of the draft, I hope to have a draft news and notes article up tomorrow as we are only 6 days away from the big event. Meanwhile, enjoy the rankings, rip them apart, tell me why I'm right or wrong.

For hitters, we've got the traditional triple slash numbers and for pitchers you see: ERA/K/BB

Rank	Name	last month	age	level	month stats	YTD	Comment
1	Eric Hosmer-1B	1	19	A	299/413/483	267/383/400	Starting to click, power will be the next thing to come.
2	Mike Moustakas-3B	2	20	A+	266/296/404	269/306/445	Slumping of late, but not too worried--yet...
3	Dan Duffy-LHP	3	20	A+	2.10/33/10	2.95/53/15	crusin' along-getting more GB but less K vs. his 08 numbers
4	Kila Kaaihue--1B	5	25	AAA	299/434/557	275/431/525	guess last year wasn't a fluke, was it?
5	M. Montgomery--LHP	7	19	A	3.27/12/10	3.27/12/10	some control issues but gets lots of ground balls
6	Tim Melville--RHP	11	19	A	3.86/11/4	3.86/11/4	looking good in his debut
7	Dan Cortes--RHP	4	22	AA	2.81/21/23	4.01/36/32	his ERA last month was good but more walks than strikeouts--I'm starting to worry
8	Jeff Bianchi--SS	8	23	A+	305/342/400	313/373/443	numbers came down a bit but still hitting pretty well.
9	Dan Gutierrez--RHP	6	22	SUS	N/A	N/A	The whole dust up with the Royals was good for no one--here's hoping he's back to pitching soon
10	J. Giavotella--2B	12	21	A+	220/351/297	223/354/350	Been unlucky some, numbers should even out
11	Kelvim Herrera-RHP	13	14	A(DL)	0.00/1/0	0.00/1/0	Was hurt but will be back with Burlington any day
12	Carlos Rosa--RHP	9	24	AAA	10.43/20/11	7.36/31/14	Disappointing season so far
13	David Lough--CF	15	23	A+	342/393/430	340/402/447	This guy continues to hit--he's starting to become very interesting. DDJ 2.0?
14	Chris Nicoll--RHP	14	25	AA	3.44/16/5	2.27/29/8	Not much left to prove at AA
15	Blake Wood--RHP	10	23	AA	5.59/17/9	6.31/31/15	Very frustrating prospect
16	Tyler Sample--RHP	17	19	EXT	N/A	N/A	Should make his 2009 debut this month
17	Henry Barrera--RHP	19	23	AA	N/A	N/A	Assigned to full season club this week
18	Joe Dickerson--OF	16	22	AA	242/342/333	230/338/317	Prospect status: dropping
19	John Lamb--LHP	20	18	EXT	N/A	N/A	Very excited to see how this kid does
20	Greg Holland--RHP	23	23	AA	1.50/15/7	2.59/25/10	NW Ark bullpen better the KC Royals bullpen?
21	Disco Hayes--RHP	25	26	AA	0.00/9/4	0.53/14/6	0.00 ERA in 21 (!) relief innings this month--let's all pitch in and buy this guy a ticket to ~~Omaha,~~ KC!
22	Nick Francis--OF	33	23	A	307/365/511	310/377/544	really like to see what this kids can do at A+
23	Jordan Parraz--OF	27	24	AA	333/463/529	336/445/470	Tyler Lumsden has an ERA of almost 5 for Houston's AAA team
24	Salvador Perez--C	24	19	A	210/258/274	175/213/223	Tough to believe: May numbers were actually an improvement
25	Chris Lubanski--OF	22	24	AAA	308/357/385	308/388/462	Been hurt, can't recall what the injury was
26	Jose Bonilla--C	26	20	A	250/316/333	241/298/339	coming to life a little
27	Brian McFall--1B	30	25	AA	287/356/440	277/346/470	not sure why, but I like this guy
28	Sean McCauley--C	36	20	A	286/357/408	219/284/324	Hit pretty well in May--hopefully keeps it up--supposed to be pretty good on D.
29	Paulo Orlando--CF	31	23	A+	222/276/309	207/258/351	Paulo Orlando/Adrian Ortiz have never been seen in the same place at the same time
30	Adrian Ortiz--CF	22	28	A+	277/302/277	261/277/294	even TPJ is laughing at your ISP
31	Blaine Hardy--LHP	35	22	A	3.09/17/8	3.00/42/8	couldn't sustain April's 25/0 K/BB ratio--but still had a good month
32	Mike Lehman	NR	20	A	2.70/8/6	2.70/8/6	2008 20th pick from HS
33	Jose Duarte--CF	32	24	AAA	182/250/218	182/250/218 651 OPS @AA	becoming minor league filler at this point
34	Clint Robinson--1B	34	24	A+	250/316/420	297/350/491	...and back to earth he comes.
35	Barry Bowden--RHP	NR	24	A	1.84/19/6	2.11/26/7	2008 undrafted FA--but has pitched well so far
36	James Thompson-RHP	NR	21	A	0.59/14/8	2.92/29/16	38th round pick last year--that's all I know.
37	Nick Van Stratten-OF	NR	24	A	362/425/511	336/403/479	Good numbers but is an old man in the Midwest League
38	Sam Runion--RHP	39	21	A	5.83/13/7	7.26/20/14	Put together a few good starts before getting bombed last time out
39	Brent Fisher--LHP	38	21	A+	3.86/4/3	6.19/11/8	hurt
40	Luis Cota--RHP	37	23	A	DL	4.26/15/5	hurt

Player of the Month:

Kila Kaaihue. He's still getting on base well over 40% of the time, his power is not quite where it was last year but that is nitpicky. He'd doing a good Nick Johnson impersonation--with less of a glove but also withou the injuries. Is Kila the Rich Gannon of the Royals? I hope not. I supported the Mike Jacobs trade and he's been about what I expected. The next few weeks are a perfect time to flip him to a contender who needs a LH bat. Kaaihue is cheaper and better. But we've heard how Jacobs is an emotional leader and I'm sure you wake up in the middle of the night in a cold sweat like I do having just dreamt that DM flipped Kaaihue for a poor hitting SS.

I almost went with Hosmer, but I think I'll have other opportunities to pick him.

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Comments

Does Disco have a shot at getting promoted to KC anytime this year?

He’s already 26 and he is showing he can throw. About to time to get a look, right?

If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.

by Warden11 on Jun 3, 2009 10:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I would think if he keeps this up

He’ll have to get promoted to AAA soon and if he pitches well there, he’ll be in KC by September.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 3, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just asking, that's about what I figured.

I think I was brainwashed by the previous years (Baird era) of bringing those who are successful up to the bigs, i.e. – Disco and Kila.

But for Kila to come up, Jacobs or Guillen will have to go and I’m not holding my breath.

If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.

by Warden11 on Jun 3, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think retro has it right,

but if I were running things, he’d already be in AAA. Rany wrote about Disco earlier this year and had some really interesting info re: submariners.

by nwroyal on Jun 3, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cortes

It’s too soon to panic, but Cortes would be a good, possibly great reliever if he can’t overcome his problems as a starter. He has two above average pitches, but so far this year seemingly hasn’t put together more than a couple really good innings at a time before he loses the strike zone. If he were older, this would probably be a no-brainer.

baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator

by RATW on Jun 3, 2009 11:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 3, 2009 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

rec'd

though, I didn’t realize Kelvim Herrera was so young—i wonder when he’s getting his braces off.

by benfunke on Jun 3, 2009 11:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Great wrap up

Kinda surprised Derrick Saito doesn’t make your Top 40. I think he’s more of a prospect than say Luis Cota. But that’s splitting hairs.

I saw we signed OF Tim Raines Jr. this week. Not a prospect, but still he brings BLOODLINES!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 3, 2009 11:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

agree

I don’t know how I forgot about Saito—I just wrote about him last week. the last few on the list are scraping the bottom of the barrel—but Saito has a better shot at the big leagues than a lot of these guys.

by nwroyal on Jun 3, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kila

He needs more seasoning, obviously, the kind of seasoning he can only get if traded for Diory Hernandez (h/t: Retro).

Jacobs is now at .788 OPS with a .322 OBP (are we allowed to mock him now even though his OBP was slightly above average as opposed to his career sub-.320 mark?). He’s a DH. We all know what should happen here. Don’t hold your breath.

Donh’t worry about Moustakas, he’s got those intangible leadership qualities that aren’t covered in your made-up stats. Plus, DMGM, who is the renowed Director of Player Development who scouted superstars like Kyle Davies and Jeff Francoeur, took him over Crappy College Catcher Whatshisname, so he’s going to be at least that good.

Ok…. just had to get all that ~~realism~~ snarkiness out of my system…

I really like this post. Are you going to do separatr ones in the future for pitchers and hitters? It would be nice, especially for the lower level guys, to have their various peripherals listed and discussed.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 3, 2009 11:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

(and rec'd)

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 3, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't worry about Jacobs

if he'd hit a few more singles, that OBP would shoot right up

by Top Ramen on Jun 3, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Singles are for pussies

JACOBS IS DA MAN!!!!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 3, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If obp was so important, why don't they put it on the score board at the park?

by ddw on Jun 3, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

df: elaborate....

what kind of separate posts are you thinking about? are you looking for scouting reports, breaking down gb , fb, age vs. league? I’m going to need some ideas about what to write once the draft is done.

also, I’m open to what the people want—should I do one list for hitters and one for pitchers? or keep it all together?

by nwroyal on Jun 3, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, you could do it all in one post, it might just be a really long, or graph too big for sbnation to handle

I just meant, from my crappy knowledge of player development, that for younger players, especially, peripherals are more important than actual three slash lines. So things like Ks adn BBs/batters faced for pitchres, K, contact, and BB rates for batters might be more indicate for young guys in A-Ball. Or whatever peripherals are relevant — you know better than I.

This is a great post, is was just a suggestion to make it even better, possibly.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 3, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How about K/9 and BB/9 instead of Ks and BBs?

They provide more information in the same amount of space.

by Gopherballs on Jun 3, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

does minorleaguesplits or somewhere else have Batters Faced By PItcher?

that’s the rate I was thinkig of, although obviously, if not, per 9 IP is fine

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 3, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Firstinning.com has minor league K/PA % and BB/PA %

K/9 and BB/9 are just more widely used and accessible, which for this purpose, probably outweigh the slightly better precision of PA %.

by Gopherballs on Jun 3, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I gotcha

I could do:
for batters—wOBA/BB%/K%
for pitchers- FIP/BB%/K% or FIP—K/9—BB/9

I think I will change the pitching stats I give b/c I went back and forth with those. The hitting ones—avg/obp/slg vs wOBA/BB%/K%—I could go either way on that one. Thoughts?

by nwroyal on Jun 3, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you are the prospect guy -- use the stats you think are best for the younger players

I like FIP and wOBA and stuff, but I thought the thing with younger players is that we have to look more at peripheral stats, so even FIP, wOBA, etc. give us a very incomplete picture. I’d love you hear your thoughts on this stuff. I’m not sure which would be the best — you and others would be the best to decide that, it was just to get the ball rolling.

On the bright side with Hosmer, Moustakas, etc., by the way, here’s a nice piece by Dave Cameron on how “straight up” stats for young prospects can be deceiving if not put in context. It’s about Justin Upton.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 3, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My two wheat pennies -- balance between traditional and "advanced" stats to keep the articles accessible

For hitters, I would do avg/obp/slg plus BB%/K%. The triple slash lines give a shorthand profile of the hitter and are traditional stats that will be readily accessible to everyone. The BB% and K% provide the most important peripherals.

For pitchers, I would do ERA for the traditionalists and K/9, BB/9, and if you have room, FIP. K/9 and BB/9 are easy to grasp and are the most important peripherals. Using ERA and FIP in tandem can help identify pitchers whose results may not be in line with their actual performance (both good and bad).

Thanks nwroyal for writing this series. It is top notch.

by Gopherballs on Jun 3, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wonder if Rosa is pitching hurt again

He was doing fine until a couple weeks ago, and the last time his numbers dropped like that, he ended up on the DL.

by Gopherballs on Jun 3, 2009 12:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I pretty sure if he was hurt,

the Royals

well-regarded

training staff would be all over

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 3, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 3, 2009 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I. Love. This.

by royalsreview on Jun 3, 2009 3:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Whats the deal with the James Thompson guy?

38th round pick a year ago to one of the top 40 prospects in the system?

I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me

by LeoBloom on Jun 3, 2009 5:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Jacobs is sneaking grit into his socks

by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Jun 3, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks for the work nwroyal!

Its great to get a monthly write-up like this of the top prospects, i know personally, that i am always checking on the guys in the system each night, so its great to get a monthly overview of how they have done.

I think moustakes is about to heat up again, i forget when he went on his tear last year, but it feels like its about that time. Plus if he does go on a similar run, since he had a better beginning of the season this year, his numbers will be even better, and boy do i love good numbers.

"I can resist everything but temptation." - oscar wylde

by cfizzle on Jun 3, 2009 6:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs