Royals batters contributing more or fewer runs than preseason projections

by benfunke on Jun 5, 2009 3:19 PM EDT Comment 10 comments

My table is a little garbled, but here's what I'm after: players' wOBA for the season (Fangraphs) versus their Zips projection (again, Fangraphs), then convert that into Runs Above Replacement (with positional adjustments per THE BOOK) per at bat (wRAR/AB -- actually abreviated wR/AB in the table to save on width). With an At-Bat-measure of how hitters have performed relative to their projections, I can look at how many runs they have actually contributed in the number of at-bats they have gotten (wcRAR -- actually abbreviated wcR in the table) above what a replacement-level player would have.

According to what I've come up with, 7 players are hitting better than their projected wOBA, and 8 are hitting worse -- which is actually overall better than I expected. But, those 7 have over-performed projections of runs contributed by about 10 runs, while the slackers have under-performed projections of runs contributed by just over 24 runs.

Name	AB	wOBA	Proj	diff	wR/AB	Proj	diff	wcR	Proj	diff
Alberto Callaspo	174	0.344	0.325	0.019	0.006	-0.010	0.017	1.1	-1.816	2.875
Willie Bloomquist	95	0.346	0.319	0.027	0.015	-0.008	0.023	1.5	-0.774	2.230
Coco Crisp	163	0.339	0.325	0.014	0.009	-0.003	0.012	1.5	-0.478	1.984
Jose Guillen	137	0.349	0.337	0.012	0.003	-0.008	0.010	0.4	-1.028	1.430
John Buck	84	0.331	0.317	0.014	0.010	-0.002	0.012	0.8	-0.201	1.023
Mitch Maier	58	0.327	0.318	0.009	-0.001	-0.009	0.008	-0.1	-0.523	0.454
Mark Teahen	185	0.346	0.344	0.002	0.008	0.006	0.002	1.4	1.126	0.322
Luis Hernandez	23	0.237	0.248	-0.011	-0.079	-0.070	-0.010	-1.8	-1.608	-0.220
Billy Butler	180	0.338	0.341	-0.003	-0.014	-0.012	-0.003	-2.5	-2.074	-0.470
Miguel Olivo	114	0.301	0.306	-0.005	-0.016	-0.012	-0.004	-1.9	-1.363	-0.496
Mike Jacobs	164	0.334	0.342	-0.008	-0.021	-0.014	-0.007	-3.5	-2.362	-1.141
Alex Gordon	21	0.261	0.346	-0.085	-0.066	0.008	-0.074	-1.4	0.164	-1.552
Tony Pena	17	0.090	0.246	-0.156	-0.207	-0.072	-0.136	-3.5	-1.218	-2.306
David DeJesus	183	0.292	0.337	-0.045	-0.047	-0.008	-0.039	-8.5	-1.373	-7.161
Mike Aviles	120	0.206	0.312	-0.106	-0.106	-0.014	-0.092	-12.8	-1.709	-11.061

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Wow

looks like Mikey A. got the brunt of the “suck” virus

by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Jun 4, 2009 2:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

great work by the way, these are interesting to look at

by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Jun 4, 2009 2:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

thanks

i’ve followed some pretty standard formulas, so hopefully i don’t get the

rain of fire from d_f and Tuscon

by benfunke on Jun 4, 2009 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I guess charts like this alleviate my Coco hate

But i wanted this guy to put it together and be an above average leadoff hitter for us…..he batted over .300 in Cleveland (with a weak OBP albeit) but has really improved his walk ratio which is the only reason he has a respectable OBP.

He just needs to hit better and i hope he does…maybe putting Dejesus to the top of the lineup with Coco 2nd would be what he needs – less pressure

by GobbleforCyoung on Jun 4, 2009 3:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

TPJ Is Just

Funny, small sample size or not.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jun 4, 2009 3:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

btw,

TPJ and Hernandez were the two lowest-rated wOBA for SS by Chone predictions in all of MLB

by benfunke on Jun 4, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The .0 Pretty

Much seals it for TPJ. Underperforming is one thing, that is ridiculous.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jun 4, 2009 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is great stuff. Thanks for the post!

By the way….I have been SOOO frustrated with this squad lately that it is hard to imagine we are still only 5.5 games out of first.

For a sucker like me…it gives me yet another reason to watch these games and hope that something miraculous happens. But…while this shows our differences offensively…I’m worried that we will never be able to make a sustained push when we play defense the way we do. Sad but true.

Nevertheless….let’s figure out a way to take two out of three in Toronto.

By the way..just saw today’s lineup. Why is Jacobs DH’ing and batting 5th against a lefty? Even if you don’t want to use B Pena since he is your backup C. Wouldn’t DeJesus be a better lefty/lefty option than Jacobs??

by Quagmire Giggity on Jun 5, 2009 6:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice job, benfunke

but for the record, if you’re3 using ((wOBA-lgwOBA)/1.15) for run value per PA (multiply by PA for run value), that’s actually runs above average, not replacement.

To get replacement level, well, there are a lot of different ways to do that. (See here). There are no replacement level hitters, or replacement level fielders, only replacement level players. Replacement level is always relative to league average.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jun 8, 2009 11:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

after double-checking,

you’re right, i should have labeled it above average. i was thinking that my replacement level adjustment was included with my positional adjustment in my spreadsheet, but it wasn’t. luckily it doesn’t affect the “difference” column.

by benfunke on Jun 8, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs