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Draft Notes

(sorry, I promised this article yesterday but a power outage changed my plans)

4 days-it's like counting down to Christmas.  We are starting to get a trickle of information about the Royals draft (still no KC Star article on the draft-Hey Mellinger-where is our draft article?!-don't make us wait until Tuesday morning!).   So here are a few somewhat random thoughts and rumblings that I've put together regarding our draft.

Star-divide

Up the middle

We've heard from a couple of places that the Royals would like an up the middle player-C, SS, CF-preferably from college.  One problem: this years draft is very, very thin on position players.  Last year, 12 of the first 14 picks were position players.  This year there may only be 3 or 4 taken in the first 14 picks.  There is a deep group of catchers available and the Royals have reportedly looked at Boston College C Tony Sanchez, and HS catchers Will Myers and Max Stassi.    But most of those guys appear to be reaches at #12.  CF-Donovan Tate might be available-but his Boras asking price is supposed to be pretty high and his bat is questionable.  Southern Cal SS Grant Green is sliding and could be available, but is also a Boras Client.  One other player HS SS Jiovanni Miller is supposed to have a great glove with a decent to good bat. 

International signings

I've seen Royals front office folks quoted a couple of times talking about how having a lower draft slot will allow them to be more active on the International market.  Just a few months ago the Royals were budgeting for the 12th overall pick, a sandwich pick (for Grudz) and a 2nd round pick.  The last two aren't happening which will save the team close to $2 million.  Look for that money to be reinvested, either in the July 2nd International Signing Day or some later round signability picks.  The Royals already spent $600,000 this winter/spring signing a 17 year old Korean catcher, Shin Jin-Ho.

Players

Most of the players we are linked to have been the ones we've discussed some before:

We have been recently linked to Grant Green who will take an above slot deal to sign and it won't be before August 14th.  I like Green, but I'd like him a lot more if we could get him 200 abs in the Midwest League this year. (UPDATE: Kevin Goldstein over at BP is saying that Green is moving back up draft boards--or he never actually moved that far down)

We could still take a HS pitcher.  I think Matzek, Turner, and Wheeler will be gone by the time we pick.  That would leave Shelby Miller and Matt Purke.  Miller throws the fastball/curveball combo that we seem to favor and I've heard differing stuff on his changeup. 

Greg Schaum seems to think (or wants to think) Sun Devil RHP Mike Leake is a strong possibility-and I would be fine with that-his 15 strikeout performance last week got a lot of folks attention.  Leake would probably be a realtively easy sign but college pitchers are about the least important players to get signed soon after the draft since their arms probably need some rest after a grueling college season.

Jonathan Mayo has us taking Missou RHP Kyle Gibson-who has dropped b/c his velocity was down in his last start.  I would be shocked if we did that for two reasons-first the Royals favor pitchers with a good curve and Gibson's calling card is his great slider, also the health concerns raise all kinds of red flags.

Round 4

The first night of the draft is only the first 3 rounds-so we will have two picks #12 and #90ish.  Our 4th round selection--our first picks of day 2--could be interesting.  Last year, our 4th round was Tim Melville (who we signed for $1.25 million), and the 1st selection of day 2 was Jason Esposito (who we offered $1.5 million).  If the Royals want to take a big signability choice it might be with that 4th round pick--when we have had a chance to check with a player over that night and confirm what they are willing to sign for--as long as they aren't committed to Vandy.  A name to look for might be Luke Bailey who was considered the top prep Catcher but had to have TJ surgery--the Royals could take him and give him $1+ million. 

Rankings:

Instead of ranking the top players in the draft, I'll rank the players we've been linked to or should be linked to.  This draft is getting less predictible by the day so there may be somebody availible that we never expected to be there--which would be the case if Green is on the board at 12:

1. Grant Green--SS

2. Mike Leake--RHP

3. Shelby Miller--RHP

4. Donovan Tate--CF

5. Matt Purke--LHP

6.Tanner Scheppers--RHP

7. Will Myers--C

8. Max Stassi--C

9.Jiovanni Mier--SS

10. Tony Sanchez--C

11. Kyle Gibson--RHP

12. Chad James--RHP

Poll:

let us know your thoughts in the poll.  I'm sure JJ Picoolo will dutifully consider the results of the poll.

Poll
Who should the Royals take with their 1st round pick?
Grant Green--USC SS
111 votes
Mike Leake--AZ ST RHP
21 votes
Shelby Miller--HS RHP
7 votes
Donovan Tate--HS CF
10 votes
Max Stassi--HS CF
3 votes
Kyle Gibson--Missour RHP
19 votes
Matt Purke--HS LHP
12 votes
Other (let us know in the comments)
5 votes

188 votes | Poll has closed

2 recs  |  Comment 48 comments |

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Comments

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Leake is the best choice IMO

But Green would be a nice get too. I’d avoid Gibson and Tate at all costs. We can’t really afford to take those kind of risks.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 5, 2009 12:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

as for Tate

…a player from Georgia that Atlanta would usually try to draft but won’t = right up DM’s alley?

by benfunke on Jun 5, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think they go with Green, and if he's not there

then the standard quality HS pitcher, especially in a pitcher-heavy draft

by benfunke on Jun 5, 2009 12:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

If Green is there

and they DON’T take him I will be one pissed off individual. Even though I think Gordon Beckham > Green, I still think SS is a position we MUST address with a top pick.

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Jun 5, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great work nwroyal

How would you put them in order of your preference (considering practical realities such as taking a high asking price guy is less likely to play this year, is a greater risk not to sign, and if he does sign, likely to reduce the team’s ability to spend money on signability picks or international free agents)?

by Gopherballs on Jun 5, 2009 12:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

the rankings I list there kind of take that into account

Green—Pros: skill position, college player could be ready at about the same time as Moose/Hos
Cons: asking price, questionable power, fringy defense, might not be as good as Jeff Bianchi

Leake—Pros: polished college pitcher—lots of ground balls, should sign quick and be ready with Moose/Hos
Cons: not huge ceiling—still could be #2 starter though,

Miller—Pros: huge fastball, big potential, should be signable
Cons: still needs a consistent 3rd pitch, long way from being ready

Purke—see above—he’s got a better 3rd pitch but some don’t like his mechanics

Scheppers—Pros: probably 2nd highest ceiling of any “college” pitcher, great fb/cb, close to being ready
Cons: health, health, health

Tate—Pros: huge ceiling, skill position Cons: cost/signability, questionable bat

those are the 6 guys that I think stand out. With more thought, I dropped Tate to 6th Bottom line, we’ve got to take the best player available—forget about trying to time a “wave” of prospects or positions we need in the system—those things are nice bonuses. The Royals will have money to spend on the international market—and at this point they probably have a good idea of who they will sign—regardless of who they draft.

by nwroyal on Jun 5, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks

I just mentioned the international market as part of the hypothetical — spending extra on the draft for a well above slot pick usually means less extra money in the international budget. The Royals certainly have separate budgets for the draft and international free agents, but there is a relationship between them. BP has been doing a nice series on the international free agent market, and one thing it mentioned was that with the draft and international signing period so close together, teams can make adjustments as needed.

by Gopherballs on Jun 5, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah, I agree

there is some give and take with those budgets. if we were going for one of the big players in the international market (i.e. Sano) it would be a bigger deal but the Royals seem to, so far go for cheaper signings in bulk.

by nwroyal on Jun 5, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would like Green if he is there

if he or Turner aren’t there at 12 I won’t be too excited about anyone else. John Manuel mentioned the Royals are looking at Sanchez pretty hard. I hope KC takes a chance in the 3rd or 4th round on guys who falls due to signability issues or someone like Bailey who is falling because of TJ.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Jun 5, 2009 12:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The Future

Hosmer 1B
Giavotella 2B
Green SS
Gordon 3B
-———- LF
Robinson CF
Moustakas RF

Bloomquist. God? Or just an illusion? You be the judge.

by focs on Jun 5, 2009 12:56 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

SS Tony Pena Jr.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 5, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Billy DH?

Some how we need to land Mauer to fill that Catcher position

Mike Jacobs you're 2009 AL MVP

by eboston on Jun 5, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If I didn't think Mauer would be the second coming of Mike Sweeney's injury issues

I’d be right there with you. He won’t catch for more than another 5 years I bet.

by AxDxMx on Jun 5, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

have you seen the move Celtic Pride?

i’m assigning you the task, except in this version you kidnap him and make him sign with the Royals

by benfunke on Jun 8, 2009 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

has any team ever had 7 of 8 position slots filled with homegrown talent?

that would be awesome if it worked out that way.

The Alex Gordon era - www.number4thesmirk.com

by CollininCalifornia on Jun 5, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

it seems there are always FAs in there... and traded players to fill holes

i think it’s possible but not likely that all these guys pan out like we want… usually a trade or FA signing is in order to make up for a player that didn’t pan out.

The Alex Gordon era - www.number4thesmirk.com

by CollininCalifornia on Jun 5, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, the Braves did for at least a game

I’m currently reading the John Schuerholz book “Built to Win”. On June 15, 2005, in an interleague matchup with Texas, they had 6 of 9 lineup spots filled by their drafted players, and Kyle Davies as SP for 7 of 10.

Pete Orr DH*
Marcus Giles 2b
Kelly Johnson LF*
Adam LaRoche 1b
Andruw Jones CF
Ryan Langerhans RF*
Andy Marte 3B*
Brian McCann C*
Wilson Betemit SS*
Kyle Davies P*

by AxDxMx on Jun 5, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

wow, that's pretty cool.

The Alex Gordon era - www.number4thesmirk.com

by CollininCalifornia on Jun 5, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the A's

Probably got close there for a while…

Wasn’t Andruw drafted by Atl?

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Jun 5, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Atlanta signed him as an amateur

in the book the asterisks are for drafted players that were rookies. Adam LaRoche was also drafted by Atlanta, but was not a rookie. As was Marcus Giles. Those are all Braves system players.

by AxDxMx on Jun 5, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There is nothing cool

About having Pete Orr DHing.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 5, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

my thoughts exactly haha

The Alex Gordon era - www.number4thesmirk.com

by CollininCalifornia on Jun 5, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Doubtful Robinson

ever makes it that far. Maybe Lough in his place.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Jun 5, 2009 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

in the whole draft?

Stephen Strasburg is a college pitcher who is one of the most hyped prospects in recent memory. He’ll go to the Nationals with the first pick and will get a boatload of money.

by nwroyal on Jun 5, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You sure?

It sure seems to me like the Nats want to be a laughingstock, and as such, will pass up Strasburg for someone cheaper.

by AxDxMx on Jun 5, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

check out this link

at MLB Trade Rumors It seems like a sure bet the Nats will sign Stratsburg

The Alex Gordon era - www.number4thesmirk.com

by CollininCalifornia on Jun 5, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like the strategy hinted at in the 2nd part

If they can’t sign Strasburg they get 2 top picks next year as they are a lock for #1 again. Screw it, draft Strasburg and stick it to Boras by not even attempting negotiations.

by AxDxMx on Jun 5, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There is a 0% chance that the Nats pass on Stras

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Jun 5, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

haha, sweet pic!

from the stories I’ve read about Bowden, it seems like he’s just not a good person. The nationals are better off.

The Alex Gordon era - www.number4thesmirk.com

by CollininCalifornia on Jun 5, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You are telling me

that a "not good person’ would steal signing bonus money from illiterate teenagers that don’t speak our language and were born in such poverty they wouldn’t know the difference anyway?

NOOOOOOOOOOOO WAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYY

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Jun 5, 2009 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Um this is kinda difficult..

Green is obviously the best player, and usually at least one really good high priced player slips in the draft.
But I can’t see teams passing up a SS that might be as little as a year away from the majors.
While I agree that pitching depth is certainly always a good thing, again I can’t help but remember last year when one of the M’s(melville, montgomery) slipped to the fourth round due to signability. So that makes me think at least one of these guys will be available with out second pick
So for me that means we should probably go with Stassi, from what I hear hes got the most potential at Catcher, and though he’ll need a couple of years to get here, catcher is far away our worst position.

I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT

by RoyalPug on Jun 5, 2009 3:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Don't draft for position

BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 5, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here's the thing though

If Aviles doesn’t come back, Green is probably better than ANY SS in our organization. He could move straight to MLB and bat better than TPJ. How sad is that?

by AxDxMx on Jun 5, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like Green

But my point is, if there is a better player on the board, you take him. MLB needs should not be a factor. And we shouldn’t take a guy just because our MLB player at that position sucks. If we take Green and he becomes just an okay MLBer like a Jack Wilson, will it be worth it that we passed up a guy that can become the next Zach Greinke to get him because we just had to fill the shortstop position?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 5, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd agree

if we had any depth at SS in the org. But we have NOBODY. There is a distinct possibility that Luis Hernandez has the highest Ceiling of any SS in our organization (well probably not, but you get my point).

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Jun 5, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

maybe you have forgotten that
pitching is the currency of baseball

by benfunke on Jun 8, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

See I agree with that too a point...

But the problem is that we would get a much much larger boost by drafting a catcher or a SS(I dont think Green will be there) than another HS pitcher.
If you expect Melville and Montgomery to perform somewhere around the level of a #3 in 2 years(about 2-3 WAR) then the pitcher that you draft has to be better than that, or else you risk having no place for him.
And even if he does, unless he becomes an bonafide ace, the odd are against him ever putting up more than 1-2 extra WAR over those guys.

On the flip side, any catcher we draft that can perform at 2-3WAR will likely be improving the position by 3-4 WAR over what we currently have.

tl;dr A pitcher may be worth more, but he is likely replacing someone worth more as well. While a catcher might not be worth as much but is replacing someone much worse than him.

I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT

by RoyalPug on Jun 5, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Teams will always trade for pitching

If we have too many pitchers, we can always deal them to plug holes in our lineup.

Melville and Montgomery are nice prospects, but we really shouldn’t be counting on them to be in our rotation. We’ll probably be lucky if one turns into a solid #3. They’re are too far away to say with any certainty that they’ll be blocking anyone.

At this point, we have to get best player available. And I think drafting catchers in the first round is generally a bad idea unless you’re dealing with a consensus top five pick. They are very hard to project.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 5, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How does Gordon Beckham stack up to Grant Green?

Or should it be the other way around? If they are compatible, it’s a sure take.

The 2009 Official You Got Rocked by the Royals and Sent to the Minors List
1. Josh Rupe TEX April 17
2. David Purcey TOR May 1
3. Brian Burres TOR May 1
4. Bryan Bullington TOR May 1

by 306008 on Jun 5, 2009 4:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Green doesn't have Beckham's power

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 5, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I heard his hand was injured during the season

Power that he exhibited in the Cape just doesn’t disappear. He showed alot more pop during the latter half of the season. He doesn’t have Evan Longoria power (Comps in the Cape) but he doesn’t lack pop either. He was the #2 overall player prior to the season and a little case of draftitis shouldn’t drop him that low. If he is there at 12 he is an extreme extreme value regardless of position. Some think he had a hand injury

The Royals should pick the best player at whatever slot they draft. I have heard people complain at times about Moustakas-Weiters while they forget that Rick Porcello was there at 2 also. Weiters is good but obviously he has some questions about him. Look at Porcello at 20 in the majors.

Greinke
Meche
Porcello what a rotation that would b

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Jun 5, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

FWIW

I just participated in the mock draft on John Sickels draft. And I immediately regret my first round pick. Grant Green and Mike Leake went off the board so I panicked and took LHP Rex Brothers. In retrospect, I would have taken Matt Hobgood or maybe even Shelby Miller, but Brothers isn’t terrible.

I took prep SS Stephen Perez in the third round.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 6, 2009 6:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Schaum's take

I would be really happy with either Green or Leake

I have no issues with Borchering either. However, I guess I am in the camp that thinks if u r a 2nd division team you take the college bat (from a quality program) every time over the high school bat.

Gibson and any of the catchers would be a mistake at 12….

"our deepest fears are not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fears is that we are powerful beyong measure."

by gashousegang on Jun 7, 2009 2:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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