Already looking towards next season's roster and payroll
by benfunke on Jun 8, 2009 2:24 PM EDT
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PrintPartly extending from Retro's fanshot of an blog article by Mellinger, I was questioning Mellinger's claim that the Royals don't have much salary coming off the books for 2010. On one hand, $28 million of the $76 million from 2009 is able to be cut (without trades). But on the other hand, much of that $28M would be needed for arbitration for players such as Teahen, Bannister, Hochevar, Davies, Gordon, and Butler.
<A chart is after the break. > I listed the 2009 and 2010 salaries as they stand, with my estimates for what 2010 arbitration amounts would be (rough, rough estimates just to get a feel for the overall team salary number) if those players were offered arbitration. In my estimate below, Crisp is not extended for 8M, and a number of less-than-stellar players are not re-signed, such as Jacobs, Mahay, and HoRam.
In the end, it depends on what the team wants to do with the more expensive arbitration players (and Coco); there isn't a whole lot of flexibility if DM feels the need to keep Teahen, Bannister, Davies, and Buck/Olivo. Then again, if you replace Teahen with a more affordable utilty player (Bloomy 2.0) and use AAA guys in place of Banny and Davies, then there's another $6M or so. Also, trading high on Farnsworth wouldn't be so bad, either.
(Buck and Olivo each stand to make 3M+ next year, so I have a wishful thinking scenario that involves releasing/trading both of them with some new face as the starter and BPena as the backup.)
Hypothetical arbitration numbers are in bold, along with Crisp's 500k buyout, which would be paid if they don't extend his contract.
| 2009 | 2010 | |
| Guillen, Jose | $12,000,000 | $12,000,000 |
| Meche, Gil | $11,400,000 | $11,400,000 |
| Crisp, Covelli | $6,083,333 | 500,000 |
| Farnsworth, Kyle | $4,250,000 | $4,500,000 |
| Mahay, Ron | $4,000,000 | |
| Greinke, Zack | $3,750,000 | $7,250,000 |
| DeJesus, David | $3,600,000 | $4,700,000 |
| Teahen, Mark | $3,575,000 | 4,000,000 |
| Jacobs, Mike | $3,275,000 | |
| Buck, John | $2,900,000 | |
| Olivo, Miguel | $2,700,000 | |
| Cruz, Juan | $2,250,000 | $3,250,000 |
| Ramirez, Horacio | $1,800,000 | |
| Bannister, Brian | $1,737,500 | 2,300,000 |
| Hochevar, Luke | $1,725,000 | 2,400,000 |
| Bloomquist, Willie | $1,400,000 | $1,900,000 |
| Davies, Kyle | $1,300,000 | 1,900,000 |
| Bale, John | $1,200,000 | 1,500,000 |
| Soria, Joakim | $1,000,000 | $3,000,000 |
| Wright, Jamey | $800,000 | |
| Waechter, Doug | $640,000 | |
| Gordon, Alex | $457,000 | 1,000,000 |
| Tejeda, Robinson | $437,000 | 640,000 |
| Aviles, Mike | $424,500 | 640,000 |
| Butler, Billy | $421,000 | 1,000,000 |
| Pena Jr., Tony | $425,000 | 640,000 |
| Callaspo, Alberto | $415,500 | 640,000 |
| Pena, Brayan | $405,000 | 640,000 |
| Maier, Mitch | 640,000 | |
| Barrera, Harry | ||
| Hulett, Tug | 640,000 | |
| Ka'aihue, Kila | 640,000 | |
| Lisson, Mario | ||
| Lowery, Devon | 640,000 | |
| Pimentel, Julio | 640,000 | |
| Rosa, Carlos | 640,000 | |
| German, Esteban | $196,721 | |
| Gobble, Jimmy | $221,312 | |
| Gload, Ross | $1,500,000 | |
| Peralta, Joel | $157,377 | |
| TOTAL | $76,446,243 | $69,640,000 |
| difference: | $6,806,243 |
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If Glass freezes salary, that could be a VERY good thing
As it will force GMDM into looking at freely acquirable talent, and young, cheap alternatives instead of mediocre, overpaid veterans.
Is Hochevar already arb eligible?
I thought we pushed back his super-two status by a year.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
good point
i was taking the spreadsheet from
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2004/12/kansas-city-royals_28.html
on faith, but there may well be some other details that they missed
Also
Where are you coming up with the $640k number from? I have the MLB min. salary as $400K through 2011. Almost all the players have at $640k will make at or near the league minimum with the exception of Tony Pena who will likely be given a multi-million dollar extension. (Callaspo and Aviles will probably make $500-600k actually)
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
yeah
I think Tony Pena will get the equivalent of Mark Teixera’s contract, maybe a bit more – 10 years $190,000,000
by GobbleforCyoung on Jun 8, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions
i was just being conservative
with the thought that one or more of these players would actually over-perform and require a salary increase, and my intent was to sort of roughly prorate that out—i didn’t look closely enough to see that i had done that with 11 of them! my tactic adds about $2M of salary (just based on a hunch), so we could take that away and have a little more room to work with.
Arbitration
Gordon is due a lot more in arbitration. Without looking through the comps, he should get at least $2-$3 million (Jacobs got $3M+ as a 3 year player). Arbitration awards are almost as much about service time as they are about stats, so Teahen, Davies, and Bannister should be due bigger raises.
Butler will not be arbitration eligible, so he and the other non-arb eligibles will get near the league minimum again.
Hochevar is an odd case in that he will not be arb-eligible, but he has a high salary based on his draft contract — I would guess he gets the roughly same salary next year.
Callaspo is on the borderline of being a Super Two arb-eligible — if he makes it, he probably will have enough playing time to get at least $1 million.
If Crisp maintains his level of play (which has featured a nice bounceback year with his fielding range), his $8M option is movable. But if you let him go, who is playing CF next year? (I’m not sure DDJ really can play there regularly anymore.)
Cot’s has the contract info plus links to past arbitration eligible salaries and awards.
my arbitration knowledge is sketchy at best
so i was trying to get some close guesses (which is to say i thought Butler was arb eligible and that Gordon won’t have much to push his arbitration considering he’s missing 2/3 of the season in all likelihood).
I like Crisp, and it will be a tough decision as to whether he’s worth 8M next year. My hypothetical situation has Maier pencilled into CF, just to view the lowest team payroll.
Good work
You definitely produced a good snapshot of the payroll. I was just trying to fill in some of the edges.
Cot’s has a nice transaction glossary. For arbitration, players generally need 3 full years of MLB service time to qualify for arbitration time (MLB DL time, including minor league rehab time, counts as service time). The exception is what is called a “Super Two” — the labor contract between the owners and the players allows the top 17% of players with at least 2 years but less than 3 years of service time to become arbitration eligible (the cutoff is usually around 2 years, 130-135 days). For each team, Cot’s lists the players’ service time.
I don't want Coco back hitting .230 with no arm
He was looking good during the beginning of the year drawing tons of walks. Maybe he’s slumping. If he can’t have an OBP of .340 or better he’s useless.
You sure about Gordon getting 2/3 million if he misses half the year?
Check the comps on Gordon
The arbitrator would consider his stats for the past two years, not just this year, and he played a full season last year with solid numbers. As long as he does not hit like TPJ when he comes back, he should get at least $2 million. The misssing time knocks him down from the $3+ million range.
What I would do
And this is tentative and subject to change based on performance this year and any trades obviously, but I would…
C Buck 3.5
1B Butler 0.7
2B Callaspo 1
3B Gordon 2.5
SS ???
LF DeJesus 4.7
CF Maier 0.5
RF Guillen 12
DH Kila 0.4
Bench: C Pena (0.4), IF Bloomquist (1.9), IF Hulett (0.4), OF
SP Meche 11.4
SP Greinke 7.25
SP ???
SP Davies or Banny 2
SP Hochevar 1.8
RP Soria 3
RP Farnsworth 4.5
RP Cruz 3.25
RP Tejeda 0.7
RP A guy like Wright or Waechter $0.7
RP Rosa or Nicoll or Hayes $0.4
Teahen and Jacobs have to be dealt. Assuming you can do that, that would get you at a $63 million payroll, with SS and a starting pitcher slot still to be filled. I think you could take a flyer on a good glove man like Bobby Crosby and it wouldn’t be terribly expensive. I’m not super impressed with the FA class for pitchers and we’re not going to get the top guys, so perhaps you look for a bargain from a team looking to dump a pitcher for salary reasons, or maybe you try to get a young guy who is close to MLB ready, but isn’t a top prospect in return for Teahen or Jacobs.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
And that still doesn't strike me as a very good team.
Maybe slightly .500 depending on how you fill SS and SP and/or what you can get back for Teahen and Jacobs.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Davies v. Bannister
I think you are right that payroll realities may effectively set up a Davies versus Bannister showdown at the end of the year.
and i think that my silly optimism is that
there’s a decent amount of fat to be trimmed (Teahen/Jacobs) which can make way for some better additions, via trade/FA.
since we all know how well GMDM has done acquiring new field players
I fear a Matt Morris-to-the-Pirates kind of deal looming
Jokes aside, there are some pieces that Moore could move for a decent return — no elite prospects, immediate third starters, or instant All-Stars, of course, but definitely solid upper minor league prospects or young, cheap major leaguers who are blocked elsewhere. Of the realistic veteran trade candidates (not Meche, etc.), DDJ and his affordable contract might bring the most return, but his stock is certainly down with his slow start. Two players who are not necessarily mere rental players — Crisp with his semi-reasonable option and maybe Teahen with his versatility — might return a B-type prospect for a team with a specific need at CF or 3B. Decent left-handed relievers like Mahay and Bale, if healthy, can always return the proverbial live arm. Jacobs might be tough to move because few teams need a 1B/DH-type and there will likely be better 1B/DH alternatives available to those who need one.
Teahen at 4M is not a "must deal"
he’s playing like a 1.5 WAR player I thought he was, and given Dayton Moore’s “ability” to find 1.5 WAR position players on the FA market (I assume such a player would get a Mark Teixeira deal from The Bravest LIttle Person in Baseball), that’s not bad for a stopgap. People who think that $4M (even in the third year of arb is too much for Teahen probably think that Jacobs deal was a steal, that Jose Guillen is clearly one of the Royals better players, etc.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 9, 2009 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions
sorry, I misread up there
what do you think he’ll get?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 9, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Hmmm....
$5M is 80% of $6.25M. If we assuem ~$4.5/WAR for next season (that’s up in the air), and Teahen’s a 1.5 WAR player, then he’s worth $6.75 on the FA market. I still see that as a good deal for the Royals, particularly given the dearth of other options.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 9, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
seems to me that if he’s a starter, then yes that’s a decent price. but if he’s going to be “super-utility”, then the royals’ strategy has to be to look for cheap players who may turn out to be diamonds in the rough.
Agreed
The built-in value of his salary situation adds to Teahen’s trade value.
Interesting
I was looking at it more from the perspective of Teahen being a not-inexpensive player, whose best position is one where we already have a young, cheap player at. He has value and thus we could get a decent player or two in return for him.
I guess you could put Teahen in LF, DJ in CF and Guillen in RF, but I shudder at that defense. Moving Teahen seems to be the best option IMO.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
other than moving Guillen, you mean
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 9, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
you're right, Glass should start
selling meth on the side to raise some extra cash and eat part of Guillen’s contract in a trade
beyond Hypothetical to Theoretical
$82.5M team payroll in 2010. 8 starters in the field + 2 main backups + 5 starting pitchers + 5 priority relievers = 20 “full-time” players. 5 backups make minimum, ~2.5M total. That leaves an average for the full-time guys at $4M. So for every “Teahen” signed at $5, the team needs a full-time player for $3M. To find these undervalued players (not that Teahen isn’t undervalued), the team needs home-grown talent (which we already know) and players that somehow the market has incorrectly valued (aka Moneyball).
We already knew this is a daunting task, but it doesn’t help when you up the degree of difficulty with Joagie/Farnsworth signings weighing the payroll down.
i’m not sure what the point of this was, i just wanted to see the numbers
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