Royals and Rays Show How Fast Perceptions Can Change
by Freneau on Jul 16, 2009 3:30 PM EDT
in Kansas City Royals News
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In November of 2007, I wrote that the Rays were now better than the Royals. Now, I was no genius, in fact, I blatantly stole the idea of the post from Lookout Landing, as noted in the very first line. The final occasion for the sentiment was the Matt Garza-Jason Bartlett trade, in which the Rays gave up Delmon Young. It was one of the last moves in a series of transactions that the Rays made in 2006-7 that produced the 2008 American League Champions.
The number of good moves the Rays made over those two years is staggering. Essentially, they did what Dayton Moore has tried and failed to do: build around their young talent with veteran players. Aside from Evan Longoria, they built an elite infield (Bartlett, Iwamura/Zobrist, Pena) in those years, snagged the key pieces to a good bullpen (Balfour, Percival, Wheeler), found useful spare parts for DH/COF (Gross, Floyd, Hinske) and rounded out the starting rotation (Garza).
It goes without saying that in nearly every case, Dayton has attempted a similar move, and has brought in a lesser player nearly 100% of the time. For more money. Tellingly, five days after I posted about the Royals being eclipsed by Tampa, the Royals signed Jose Guillen. For $36 million dollars.
The interesting thing is, prior to last season, the Royals were the intriguing young team that was building a winner. Everyone knew the Rays had good young players, but they'd also traded away Elijah Dukes and seen Upton struggle throughout his career. Evan Longoria had played about ten minutes in the minors. A number of people thought the Twins easily won the Young-Garza trade. I mean, Delmon Young was the perfect replacement for Torii Hunter, and was the Rookie of the Year!
Here are some of the comments people posted in response to what I wrote: "mmm, nah", "You're kidding right? I'll be interested in your argument", "I don't think the Rays are better", "in a year or two they will be, but I don't think they'll put up a better record in 2008", "No, at least not right now", "I've been reading about the Rays promise for years... and I haven't seen it come to fruition", "Next year's a reach", "I still don't buy it", etc. Yes, a few people, notably "Gopherballs" agreed with me, but the resounding response was: no way. The Royals, everyone thought, were going to be better.
In retrospect, of course, thinking the Royals were better looks insane. The especially curious thing, when you go back and look at the numbers, is that the Rays had likely been better than the Royals for many years.
| Rays | Royals | |
| 2005 | 65-97 | 56-106 |
| 2006 | 65-97 | 62-100 |
| 2007 | 67-95 | 69-93 |
Yes, the Rays had the look of a stagnating team, but the Royals had had to improve by 13 games just to reach their level, in a much easier division.
However, we shouldn't feel too bad, because Dayton Moore felt the same way. Actually, he still does. The moves he made last off-season were, no joke, intended to be finishing touches. Arguably, aside from a few minor league pitching moves, Alberto Callaspo was the last player Dayton Moore has reasonably acquired for his upside. Everyone else, from St. Willie to Farnsworth to Jacobs, were intended to be finishing touches, bits of certainty stabilizing our exciting young team.
A year and a half ago, Dayton Moore was a pitching guru who had brought professionalism and accountability back to Kansas City. Moore had convinced Glass to spend more -- at all levels of the organization -- and the Royals were going to develop a horde of young pitchers and buy key bats to contend. And because Moore was an old-school guy, it went without saying that the Royals would always be at least average defensively.
Funny how things can change.
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while the Rays certainly had a better farm system and and (outside of Greinke) the Royals’ “homegrown” playres have been inferior (Gordon, Butler < Longoria, Upton), one key is that the Rays identified undervalued players and got them on good deals. Zobrist and Barlett were throw-ins. Pena was picked up for next to nothing, originally. Etc.
note that they never gave anyone anywhere close eo a 3/36M or 5/55 deal. I assume it’s because tons of players wanted to play there because ofr their long winning tradition.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
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Drafting in the top two picks every year
for almost a decade doesn’t hurt either. I was surprised it took them so long to contend in the first place.
which of those top picks were on those championship teams
other than Longoria?
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 16, 2009 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
ah yes
i knew there were more
not to take anything away from price or his performance in the playoffs, but I also think it’s fair to say that he didn’t have much to do with getting them there
Still: Garza, Kazmir, Gross, Iwamura, Pena, Aybar, Hinske (last season), Navarro, Howell, Balfour, Bartlett, Wheeler…
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 16, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
oh definitely...
the little moves had more to do with it than one would assume. upton was a stud, as was longoria…but other than that…its small under the radar moves
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 16, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
yes, especially
when “under the radar” means “inexpensive, low-risk”
"The life of a (Royals) fan must be lived forward but can only be understood backward" -- Kierkegaard (more or less)
Jeff Nieman has been good for them too
He was a top 5 pick.
He was essentially the replacement for Edwin Jackson. It’s a mark of a good franchise when they trade a player, Edwin Jackson, that happens to become an AllStar the following year, but it doesn’t affect them at all. They had a replace waiting in Jeff Niemann. And in a few years Matt Joyce could be a star.
by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 16, 2009 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions
ehhh....niemann has been a serious downgrade for them...
and joyce isnt likely to be much more than an averageish at best player. this is one of the few major black marks on friedman and co.’s resume
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 16, 2009 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions
really you think so?
Niemman has been as consistent as Bannister actually. his numbers are almost identical. Sonnastine is the failure on the staff.
by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 16, 2009 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions
banny is better than niemann across the board....
and jackson has been one of the top 5 pitchers in the AL while joyce has contributed less than nothing…definitely a substantial loss for the rays at this point. your point still stands though, that the rays can trade one of their starting pitchers and have a legit replacement, while the royals just struggle to have a legit starter. the problem wasnt that the rays traded jackson, it was that they traded him for matt joyce’s half of a good season….they bought high.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 16, 2009 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't understand why Moore didn't even attempt to get him
If we aren’t even going to use Kila could we have traded him for Jackson….throw in Rosa or Cortes. To let him go to a your division rival was a mistake.
And why did we give up on Jorge De Larosa. If we are going to overpay for Horam and actually start Bruce Chen we might as well have left Jorge in the rotation as the 5th starter. He pitches at Coors, his number might actually improve in the AL
by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 16, 2009 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions
he got us ramon ramirez....
which was an awesome trade….but that awesome trade was undone by the awful coco trade
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 16, 2009 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll disagree.
Sonny was better than Jackson ever year until this year. Niemann has been better this year than Jackson ever was in a Rays uniform. Jackson hasn’t been a top 5 pitcher in the AL (top 10 so far, yes, but I doubt that holds). Jackson and Niemann have the same career FIP at this point.
How exactly has Joyce contributed less than nothing?
How exactly has Joyce contributed less than nothing?
Actually, you’re right so far. He does have a negative win-value.
I'm sorry, but this mainstream media view of the Rays is simply not accurate...
Longoria and Upton were the only Rays drafted in the Top 5 that had a major impact on the 2008 season. The Rays were built on buying low on players, and making excellent trades. Carlos Pena could have been signed for peanuts by any MLB team that would give him a MLB job. Iwamura was very inexpensive. Bartlett was acquired in an absolute rape of the Twins. Navarro was acquired in a deadline deal for a playe that was a FA the following year.
Every team in baseball passed on Carl Crawford in the draft. The Rays had a fricking platoon in RF. Their rotation was loaded with James Shields, Matt Garza, and Andy Sonnanstine…All of whom the Royals had an opprtunity to draft. Edwin Jackson and Kazmir were acquired in trades. You know how bad the JP Howell trade was. Grant Balfour was a steal.
This entire team was BUILT not throuh the top 2 picks of the draft, but by the diligent efforts of Andrew Friedmanand the Rays FO.
They also didn't play a part in the Latin American market untill recently either...
nor did they go after high-priced free agents. Nor did they accumulate picks through type A/B free agents. Haters wanna hate.
I know what you mean
my “six pack” feels like it is totally cramping up from the hammering it’s taken from my never ending dry heaves.
Fuck This Team. Period.
The General Theory of Royaltivity
I don't know if this has much effect,
but it seems like a lot of players like living in Florida for the weather, and probably because of the state income tax benefits. They can work out year round, and half the teams have workout facilities in South Florida. All these reasons must make it easier to attract players to Florida teams, compared to cities like KC. Just a thought.
What free agents have they attracted though?
Cliff Floyd? Eric Hinske? Surely the Royals could get guys like this.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
2008 Rays by WAR - and how acquired
Evan Longoria 5.3 – 1st round, 2006 (3rd overall)
BJ Upton 4.9 – 1st round, 2002 (1st overall)
James Shields 4.2 – 16th round, 2000
Carlos Pena 3.8 – free agent (after being released)
Andrew Sonnanstine 3.6 – 13th round, 2004
Matt Garza 2.9 – trade (with Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie)
Carl Crawford 2.7 – 2nd round, 1999
Dioner Navarro 2.7 – trade (with Jae Seo and Justin Ruggiano for Mark Hendrickson, Toby Hall and cash)
Akinori Iwamura 2.6 – free agent
Grant Balfour 2.2 – trade (for Seth McClung)
Gabe Gross 2.1 – trade (for Josh Butler)
Eric Hinske 2.0 – free agent
Scott Kazmir 2.0 – trade (with Jose Diaz for Victor Zambrano and Bartolome Fortunado)
Jason Bartlett 1.8 – trade (with Matt Garza and Eduardo Morlan for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie)
JP Howell 1.5 – trade (for Joey Gathright and Fernando Cortez)
Willy Aybar 1.4 – trade (with Chase Fontaine for Jeff Ridgway)
Edwin Jackson 1.4 – trade (with Chuck Tiffany for Danys Baez and Lance Carter)
Ben Zobrist 1.3 – trade (with Mitch Talbot for Aubrey Huff and cash)
Fernando Perez 1.0 – 7th round, 2004
Cliff Floyd 0.6 – free agent
Trever Miller 0.6 – free agent
Shawn Riggans 0.5 – 24th round, 2000
Rocco Baldelli 0.3 – 1st round, 2000
Dan Wheeler 0.2 – trade (for Ty Wigginton and cash)
Al Reyes 0.1 – free agent
Gary Glover 0.0 – free agent
Justin Ruggiano 0.0 – trade (with Jae Seo and Dioner Navarro for Mark Hendrickson, Toby Hall and cash)
Chad Bradford 0.0 – trade (for cash?)
Jason Hammel -0.2 – 10th round, 2002
Troy Percival -0.7 – free agent
Jonny Gomes -1.2 – 18th round, 2001
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 16, 2009 5:07 PM EDT reply actions 4 recs
that is a great post/comment
did you have to look up each player’s acquisition?
"The life of a (Royals) fan must be lived forward but can only be understood backward" -- Kierkegaard (more or less)
Rec'd for sheer amount of work done
Who the hell was Fernando Cortez?
by Soria's Unibrow on Jul 16, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions
the weird thing is
it just seems like the Royals can never ever do anything right. For instance, it seems like even had the Royals been smart enough to pick up Carlos Pena in the exact same manner and money instead of Rays having done so he would have turned out to suck and the move would have failed. I don’t have an explanation for this apparent phenomenon. Or am I simply so cynical that I’m imagining this?
Fuck This Team. Period.
The General Theory of Royaltivity
I don't think so
Swap Gordon and Longoria, and something tells me the Smirk just went to the All-Star Game while Longoria continues to underwhelm. I’m convinced that the Royals have epically failed at developing the players we have gotten the past 8 or so years—it’s not just picking up the wrong guys. Unforntuantely, like talking about draft picks, we won’t actually know if this has changed under Moore for another few seasons.
Yeah, it was a stupid screen name.
by CentralChamps2009 on Jul 16, 2009 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think
your simply so cynical that you’re imagining this is what I meant to say.
Yeah, it was a stupid screen name.
by CentralChamps2009 on Jul 16, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I somewhat agree
these past three years I’ve really been wondering how much professional coaching matters to a guy’s final product. Baseball’s version of the ol’ nature/nurture debate. There’s no way for us to measure it except to go back in time and put different players in different camps, but can horrible coaching in the minors turn all-stars into hacks, or are players already set by the time they’re drafted?
Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!
I feel the same way
it seems like there are a lot of examples of this, especially on the offensive end. However, we have had our share of nifty little finds as well, eg Soria, RamRam, and Bannister, they just seem to all be on the pitching end.
Specifically regarding Gordon, I do think in hindsight he was rushed and kept up in 2007 when he should have been sent down to get his head right. Looking at the numbers has made me appreciate what he does, but I think he could have been even better sooner had he been given the chance to get right in Omaha for a month or two. That has seemed to help a lot of players.
Kansas City Royals - rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic since 1994.
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jul 17, 2009 2:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I think he won't be a superstar
but I still think 4 WAR is realistic for him don the road and very good, as long as they don’t extend him as if he’s a 5 WAR player (Cf. Wells, Vernon… althoug 4 WAR would be a miracle for him at this point).
That sad, yeah, I don’t understand 1) Why he wasn’t promoted to AAA in 2006 when it became apparent he had mastered AA; 2) why he started in the big leagues when he did — why not at least game the arb clock; and 3) why he wasn’t sent down after he was obviously struggling to at least help him regain his confidence and, not coincidentally, game the arb clock.
Who knows, maybe it wouldn’t have made a difference, but at the very least it would have relieved a bit of financial pressure down the road.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 17, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions
What's really interesting to me is the trades
They traded guys that aren’t really any better than the guys we have.
Aubrey Huff – was an All-Star, but really a declining bat without a position. And he was in a walk year I believe. And they spun him into Ben Zobrist, who, honestly, no one predicted would have this kind of power, but still, this is why you trade for young guys with upside, not 27 year old established vets with a reputation for not listening to coachign.
Mark Hendrickson – this is the kind of guy the Royals always have – 5.00 ERA, soft-tosser, can’t strike anyone out. And they spun him and a backup catcher into a former prospect named Dioner Navarro who finally lived up to potential with his third organization. Again, taking on guys with upside.
Victor Zambrano – this shows why you always deal with the Mets. They make stupid trades.
Danys Baez and Lance Carter – two “proven closers” who were really crappy relievers, but the Rays once again took a flyer on a young guy with upside who hadn’t lived up to potential – Edwin Jackson. Jackson wasn’t the All-Star he is now, but he still was a solid back of the rotation guy, certainly an upgrade over guys like Kyle Davies.
Jason Bartlett and Matt Garza – a now-famous trade, with the linchpin being Delmon Young. The Rays weren’t afraid to deal a former highly prized prospect who had some obvious red flags (terrible OBA and defense, attitude problems) and turn them into a solid mid-rotation starter and an excellent defensive shortstop who learned how to hit a bit. A great “challenge trade” it would have worked even if Delmon had worked out since Tampa Bay was trading from an area of depth (outfield) and filling other needs (shortstop defense and MLB-ready starting pitching). The Royals don’t seem to do this nearly enough.
I thought Dayton would be a wheeling and dealing GM ready on overturning the roster with trades for young upside guys that his scouting eye could identify. Instead, he has been a much different GM than I expected, trading for MLB-ready vets and signing expensive old free agents in a vain attempt to win at the MLB level now, instead of cultivating a young core ready that will be around when his draft picks are finally ready for MLB action. Bizarre.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 17, 2009 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Dayton Moore would definitely be the guy trading
for Delmon Young, dontcha think?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 17, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Reading the November 2007 post, it's amazing how blind the masses were.
not that we are expected to avoid being homers (or should).
especially considering the Rays were a better team at least a season or two before, they just played in a tougher division.
"The life of a (Royals) fan must be lived forward but can only be understood backward" -- Kierkegaard (more or less)
I actually can't stand watching the Rays
They were like the blueprint for success while we have to sit around watching draft picks and free agents struggle or fail.
it wasn’t too long ago when Delmon Young was throwing bats and talking about how stupid management was for keeping BJ Upton and Dukes in the minor leagues…I also remember guys like Lugo and Huff being problems and their starting pitching being worse than the Royals
by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 16, 2009 7:50 PM EDT reply actions
I know what you mean, but
they also have a couple things going for them, from an adopted fan perspective.
they play against the Yankees
they play against the Red Sox
so, as i’ve done the last couple years, i keep an eye on their blog, drasybay, as the season progresses and the Royals become less of a factor. they have some quality stats guys there, too, and the fans on the blog in general are well-educated (i like our blog and our fans better, but then again i’m biased).
i recommend keeping an eye on the Rays, if nothing else because at least we can learn what a well-run franchise looks like, and we’ll know it when we see it if it ever shows up in KC.
"The life of a (Royals) fan must be lived forward but can only be understood backward" -- Kierkegaard (more or less)
they're only winning because of their massive payroll,
the outstanding foundation ex-Brave exec Chuck LaMar laid for them
And, of course, their long tradition of winning, which is why they sign all those free agents at low prices, instead of having to handing out 3/36 contracts to guys whose upside is league average because they have to overpay
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 17, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm So Horny
For a ballgame I’m listening to Dave “I Just Shit Myself” Niehaus call the Seattle-Cleveland game. This brought to my attention that Ryan Langerhans is not a Royal but Ryan Freel is. Why?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
that Seattle lineup is just odd to look at
Branyan hitting 2nd
Jose Lopez 3rd
Griffey 4th
……Woodward & Cedeno?
by Fernando Vina School of Linguistics on Jul 16, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions
They're Over .500
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jul 17, 2009 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions
for now...
i’m not a believer.
by Fernando Vina School of Linguistics on Jul 17, 2009 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions
It's Pretty Shaky
And heavily dependent on starting pitching; sound familiar?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jul 17, 2009 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Defense, you mean.
Roughly average starting pitching and the best outfield defense ever.
---
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
I can't wait to see Jarrod Washburn in a Royals uniform
I hope Seattle enjoys Alex Gordon
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 17, 2009 9:54 AM EDT up reply actions
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