Yunie > TPJ: Why the best argument for the YBJ deal sucks.

by stuckinstl12 on Jul 17, 2009 1:22 AM EDT Comment 21 comments

So far, the best argument for the Betancourt trade has been that he is an improvement over TPJ. Overstating the point is ineffective, even though it's fun to say that random geriatric sotfball players would be an improvement over TPJ. But really, Yunie v. TPJ is not the issue.

The following is inexact and based on statistics I couldn't calculate myself. I'm using BP's Postseason odds (pecota version) and Fangraphs WAR calculations.

According to BP, the Royals are most likely on pace for 68.5 wins. We'll give them 69.

Fangraphs has the following value (Wins above Replacement) for the relevant players:

TPJ: -.8

Bloomquist: .5

Betancourt: -.8

I think WAR is dependent on playing time, which TPJ has less of than Betancourt. So WAR says Betancourt is an "upgrade" over TPJ. I'll go ahead and concede that.

Pretending Bloomquist and TPJ had equal playing time (I realize it's not true) and presuming they would have equal playing time for the remainder of the season (also not true), the Royals would have received a -.3 WAR at SS.

(Yes, I realize this freezes WAR at a point in time and then projects forward. And that it might be a slight bastardization of the stats' utility.)

Anyway, the Royals just replaced -.3 WAR with -.8 WAR. So now they’re on pace for 68 wins. This is, as we like to say in the rationality business, not improving the ballclub.

Today, GMDM touted his acquisition of WFB as proof that those who crush his moves are not ALWAYS right (just 4 out of 5). Except, his most recent trade relegated the acquisition he was touting to a lesser role. That's actually pretty funny ("You guys are dumb. Remember when you said Bloomy would suck? Well, now he doesn't. So I made a move that means he won't play anymore, and becuase you were wrong (rationally: totally arguable) about his signing, you are also wrong about the utility of me neutering his role on the team. Heads, I win. Tails, numbers are Satan.").

My main point was that the BEST argument for this trade is that Betancourt replaces TPJ and that’s got to be a positive, right? Amiright? Well, yeah, it would be except that it really replaces a (however shocking) productive player with one with negative WAR. And it costs $7 million.

Of course, it’s not my money, so I don’t care. If it were my money, there would be bankruptcy lawyers involved--for sure. The problem is that DMGM is destroying Glass’s willingness to open the checkbook for wins. He’s going to (once again) believe that paying for wins doesn’t work.

And, thus, back we go to Glass collecting revenue sharing money and paying 6th round picks $1k in gun-to-your-head deals. Awesome.

What’s the number for season ticket sales?

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Comments

Yeah this has always been my biggest problem with this trade...

And the moore Regime in general.
The need to run out and overspend on players that we already have IN SYSTEM that are CHEAPER, and dont cost prospects.

Time and again Moore has “traded” for a an “upgrade” to position that we already have a better player at.

Gload-Shealy
Jacobs-Kila
Betancourt-Bloomquist
Guillen-Emil(yes, sad as it is Emil would probably have been the better option of the two)
Olivo-Buck
Gathright-DDJ

And of course, the parts neccessary to make that all happen
Nunez-Farnsworth
Ram-ram-Cruz
Howel-…no one really…

Its stupid pointless and costs this team wins, money and opportunity.

I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT

by RoyalPug on Jul 17, 2009 3:06 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

oh and before someone asks...

Yes, I do believe that Shealy would have performed substantially better than Gload.

I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT

by RoyalPug on Jul 17, 2009 3:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Jul 17, 2009 7:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That last one

has a DeNiro in “The Untouchables” feel to it.

Yeah, it was a stupid screen name.

by CentralChamps2009 on Jul 17, 2009 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The first one makes me think of Office Space

Actually, that has to be Michael Bolton

the funniest thing about this particular signature is that by the time you realise it doesn't say anything it's too late to stop reading it!

by ratherfantastic on Jul 17, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, we shouldn't talk about things like trades involving a new regular on the team and one of the Royals best prospects

We should just talk about how good the good playes are, how pretty the stadium is and how much we love rainbows.

This was a significant trade for the Royals which has major implications for the Royals present and future. People are still talking about it because they are interested in it and there is still some debate about how good/bad the trade was. If you want thoughtless rah-rah cheerleading about this team, you’re at the wrong website.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jul 17, 2009 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

NY, I agree

but do it in one of the 37 other threads that have been started about this thread. And if you do start a new thread, at least have new information about the trade, instead of basically posting a summary of what has been said in other threads. *

The above is not meant to bash the user who started this thread. I am not calling you a bad user, a moron, or anything else. I’m not sure if the threads about this thread are still visible on the ‘recent’ fanposts/fanshots or not, but they are there.

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Jul 17, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

point taken

I was inspired to post by moore’s statements yesterday about how he got the bloomquist deal right. He was trying to show how current criticism of his moves will likely be wrong because the Bloomy deal worked…except he had just negated the value of the move he was touting. I thought that was particularly silly.

I probably put in too much extraneous info.

by stuckinstl12 on Jul 17, 2009 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, I hear you

And it wasn’t a ‘bad’ post at all (I really wasn’t trying to say that at all) buy NY posted something directed at me that I felt I must respond to…

It happens alot on SBN sites, because people (me included) really only see 20 stories with the rest falling off of the front page. It happens w/ good stories too (as rare as they are). In April/MAy there were 35 “This is why Greinke is Good” threads, and basically, they all said the same thing…

(The Yuni deal was JUST made worse by the Red Sox, as they DFA’d Lugo. We coulda got him for (presumably) league minimum salary + incentives for 1.5 years.)

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Jul 17, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd love to hear

Moore go through and rationalize every one of his trades/signings. I fully realize that no GM has a perfect track record and we can’t expect this of anyone. However, I think it would be quite enlightening. If he’s going to defend the newest trade by cherry picking some other trade/signing, he should be held responsible to analyze ALL his signings.

Fuck This Team. Period.

The General Theory of Royaltivity

by kabrink on Jul 18, 2009 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What does Betancourt have to do...

For Royals fan to be happy with his performance. I am new to this website and it seems that EVERY Royal fan has already made up his mind that Betancourt sucks, the second coming of Angel Berroa and that Cortes is the next perennial Cy Young Candidate. I am sure several people that bashed the Bloomquist signing are now giving Moore props for the signing. Anyway love reading the posts and comments.. keep it up and go Royals!

by RoyalMizzou on Jul 17, 2009 8:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Get used to it!

Betancourt has already been tried and convicted as the worst player in MLB. He goes out and gets two hits, including a triple in his first at bat. Posters on here such as NYRoyal can see the future and speak as if it’s 2011 and we are talking about his horrible career as a Royal in hindsight. NO ONE knows how he will perform as a Royal. (it reminds me of the NFL draft watching “experts” and “analysts” vilify a team for taking a certain player and declaring him a bust before the NFL season even starts – Aaron Rodgers/Mario Williams were supposedly automatic busts whereas Cadillac Williams/Robert Gallery were considered sure things) To conclude my point, It’s probably easier to argue Betancourt hasn’t been good in 2008/part of 2009 and will continue to perform at that level, but what’s the problem thinking he has a chance to improve and be very close to league average (slightly better defensively/ below par offensively) like he was in 2006/2007? I think it was Ax who told me, “just read what everyone is saying about the trade!” If Chariie Casserly believed what “everyone” said before the 2006 NFL draft, he would never made such a great selection. And this is a guy who was getting death threats for passing on Reggie Bush.

stuckins – I think the argument is getting simplified about the TPJ vs Betancourt debate. Remember, the move frees Bloomquist to play CF and gets Maier and his .230 OBP from June 1st off the team.

by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 18, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The argument is that he cost the team way too much for the player that he is.

Julio Lugo being DFA’d yesterday just puts an exclamation point on it.

If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?showforum=129

by Warden11 on Jul 18, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lugo the answer?

Because teams contending part ways with 9million dollar players that they feel can help the team win all the time. Lugo is a 33 year old overrated SS who has trouble staying on the field and does not posess the speed that made him a real good 8th or 9th hitter in a lineup. Daniel “Cy Young” Cortes stayed true to form in his debut for the Diamond Jaxx’s last night. throwing 87 pitches in 4.1 innings 4 H 4 BB 5 ER 5 K’s. Montgomery stole 4 bases on him in the second inning alone. Royals are paying 7 million for 2½ seasons for Betancourt, any other FA SS would cost that much for one year (i.e Jack Wilson).

by RoyalMizzou on Jul 18, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OF course, many shortstops about as good as Betancourt would cost much, much less

i.e., Donny Murphy

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Jul 18, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

make that "e.g."

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Jul 18, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"e.g, i.e, fuck you"

One of my favorite movie lines of all time.

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on Jul 18, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

thank for the correction

your correct..e.g instead of i.e. But really Donnie Murphy?

by RoyalMizzou on Jul 18, 2009 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he could have been had on a minorl-league deal for no prospects

offense and defense combined, I could buy him being 5 runs worse than Betancourt over a full season of PAs.

But at the cost of no prospects and at the league-minimum (at most, on a minor-league deal), well…

the point isn’t that Donnie Murphy is good. the point is that approximately replacement level players should be acquired at an appropriate price.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Jul 18, 2009 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think...

a lot of people have been lost in the forest that is sabermetrics. So I know its early but does Betancourt look like the worst SS in the game? What play can’t he make? No lateral range? Ohh I forgot the game is played on paper. In that case the Royals already lost. Side note…Fire Trey Hillman. Can’t afford to lose well pitched Greinke starts. In a way they are worth two in the fans minds.

by RoyalMizzou on Jul 18, 2009 10:16 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs