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Where do the Royals go from here?

Well, this season has surprisingly gone south the last two months.  The Royals are 15-33 in their last 48 games.  That equals a winning percentage of .313 in those last 48 games.  For reference, the lowly Nationals are sporting a .289 winning percentage on the season.  The Royals aren't that bad, but lately it hasn't been a whole lot better.  The promise of the 18-11 start is gone and we are left with a roster that is so bad, I don't know how to describe it. 

So, the question in my mind becomes "what happens now"?  Was the start a hint that with healthy players this team could be competitive as is?  Doubtful.  We've seen this stuff before and have been fooled by it.  Lets take a look at the pitchers and see what 2010 looks like.

Star-divide

Here are the pitchers for the Royals in 2009.  All contract information is from Cots.

 

Pitchers

Gil Meche- Signed for 2010 and 2011 at 12.4 million.  Enough has been said about his recent starts, lets hope he is still capable of brushing his teeth by this time next year.

Zack Greinke- 7.2 for 2010, 13 million for 2011 and 2012.  Ace of the staff and could anchor any rotation in Major League Baseball. 

Brian Bannister- Getting 1.7 this year and looks like he will be in his second year of arbitration next year.  Definitely looks like he can be a solid starter, could easily get shipped out for parts soon though.

Bruce Chen- He isn't listed on the Cots spreadsheet, I'm assuming he signed a minor league contract?  Either way, doubtful that he is a key piece of this rotation going forward.  Special note from his baseball reference page- "Hey Chickenman at least I wear a glove! So the Phillies finally won, great now you're tied with the Marlins."  That is from his sponsor.

Luke Hochevar- 1.75 this year and with his arbitration years is around until 2013.  Luke has looked pretty salty at times this year.  Interesting trade material?

Kyle Davies- 1.3 this year, second year of arbitration next year.  I don't have any longterm faith in him being 1-4 starter going forward.  Maybe a few spot starts and some bullpen work in his future.

Bullpen-

Joakim Soria- 3 mil for 2010 and 4 mil for 2011 with club options after that.  Great contract and one of the best closers in the game.  He's looked great the last few games and could bring a great haul in a trade.  Definitely a risky move though.

John Bale- 1.2 mil this year and listed as Arb 2 for next year.  Has looked good at times and can definitely be a useful part of a bullpen.  Might have some value on the trade market.

Ron Mahay- Free agent next year.  Hopefully he gets traded for something.  Anything. 

Juan Cruz- 3.25 for 2010 and a club option for 2011.  Disappointing year to this point but he has still shown flashes.  Another possible trading chip or solid bullpen material for 2010.

Kyle Farnsworth- Do I need to rehash his contract again?  Great, great mop-up reliever and with his contract it is unlikely he is traded for much.

Jamie Wright- Free agent for 2010.  Can't get here fast enough for me.

Robinson Tejeda- 437,000 this year and elligible for arbitration next year.  Struggles with the strike zone occasionally and must not be very vocal in the clubhouse as it seems Trey forgets he is on the team at times.

Roman Colon- Not listed on Cots and is making around the league minimum (I'm guessing?).  Solid year up to this point, I can handle him in the bullpen.

 

What do we have here?  Out of the starters, I'm guessing we have 4 guys that belong in a Major League rotation.  In my mind, it is unlikely we make it past the trade deadline with all four of those guys.  It seems like Zack is the only untouchable with Meche's name being mentioned in the last week.  I'm all for trading anybody, well except Zack.  I'm not sure if a team could put enough together to take him. 

The bullpen is a question mark for most teams and the Royals aren't any different.  It's ok though, we have Dayton Moore and he can build a bullpen using play-dough.  Soria could bring in a lot of talent and I firmly believe another closer can be found somewhere.  The question is whether during a season like this, can the Royals afford to piss off the fans by doing something like that?

Thoughts?

2 recs  |  Comment 34 comments

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Soria is not getting dealt

It does make sense to move him, but no way he gets dealt. Dayton will make a few minor moves, maybe deal Teahen and/or DJ, but I don’t expect him to “blow this team up”. He’ll probably overpay for a shortstop this winter, maybe Marco Scuatro or Bobby Crosby, and give a two year deal to someone that has no business getting a two year deal – I’m gonna guess Ryan Freel.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 2, 2009 10:18 AM EDT reply actions   1 recs

I might finally have my dream of Russell Branyan in a Royals uniform fulfilled

Sadly, it will be become a nightmare when his 3/36 contract with a player option is announced.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jul 2, 2009 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

well how else is the FO going to Buy High, Sell Low?

by benfunke on Jul 2, 2009 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Teahan & DJ will be moved

my question is will it be for prospects or active players?

Are those guys worth upper level prospects?

by Your_Moms_Boyfriend on Jul 2, 2009 11:13 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

No

I like both guys, and they’re better than any other position players Dayton Moore has brought in so far (Callaspo might be as good as Teahen), but I wouldn’t trade an prospect I saw as being near-league-average potential for either guy.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jul 2, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But guess what, they aren't Dayton guys

Man, I can’t imagine how awful this team will be if they get prospects for those 2. Here’s the new OF lineup, assuming no MLB ready replacements for them and Gordon returns to 3B.

? LF
Mitch Maier CF
Jose Guillen RF

Who the hell would play LF every day? Bloomy? Maybe he could bat leadoff too.

by AxDxMx on Jul 2, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

THOR-MAN!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 2, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think you are underselling them a bit

Neither will bring back an elite prospect, or a great major-league-ready prospect, or any sort of young “proven” major leaguer starter under club control, but there are a lot valuable young players outside of those categories — think non-major league ready “B” prospects, near major league prospects who might project as regulars but not potential stars, former top prospects who have scuffled in transitioning the the majors, young cheap MLB bench players who project as regulars, or interesting relievers at any level.

Even with his struggles this year, teams smart enough to look beyond the first half of this season will see DDJ as an asset signed cheap through 2010 with a reasonable team option for 2011. Teahen does not have as much value as DDJ, but still has decent value and is affordable to most teams as an arbitration eligible for 2010 (just not the Royals unless he has a regular job).

Last summer’s Casey Blake deal, which brought back a good low minors prospect in the midst of a breakout (Carlos Santana) and a semi-interesting relief prospect (Jon Meloan), is probably a good template.

by Gopherballs on Jul 2, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I mention Jon Meloan and he promptly gets traded for another semi-interesting reliever

Yesterday, I randomly mentioned Karl Malden to someone (as the other guy in the Michael Douglas San Francisco cop show from the 1970s), and a few hours later he passes away.

Casey Blake and Carlos Santana (the catcher) should probably stay home tonight.

by Gopherballs on Jul 2, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So... DDJ for Blake it is!

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jul 2, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would bet

MLB ready low-ceiling AAA players.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 2, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I realize that the Royals aren't going to trade away Soria

but in the past two years, the Royals have traded away 3 potential young replacement closers:

2009 stats
Howell: 1.63 ERA 6 saves
Nunez: 3.86 ERA 4 saves
Ramirez: 1.80 ERA

by Top Ramen on Jul 2, 2009 11:18 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

we have Dayton Moore and he can build a bullpen using play-dough.

Yeah? From what I hear, you couldn't hit water if you fell out of a f@#%ing boat.

by BillyMojo on Jul 2, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

sadly, he spent lots of real dough

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jul 2, 2009 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I'll say it

JP Howell is not a potential closer. The Rays are getting by with him right now, and I know he’s done better since being moved to the ’pen, but I would not be comfortable watching him come in to pitch the 9th.

I am Billy Butler's Gold Glove.

by cbrett42 on Jul 2, 2009 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

getting by?

based on those numbers, you must cringe when you see Soria come in :-)

by marbotty on Jul 3, 2009 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

it's it's actual it must be possible

I guess the Rays don’t know the Bravest way

that’s what you get for firing a DMGM-level stud like Chuck LaMar

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on Jul 3, 2009 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good review for the most part

It’s tough to call the Nationals lowly, they hit much better than we do and actually scored more runs than us!!! If they had Zack they would be damn near a .500 ball club, and we would be the laughingstock of the league.

And no way should we deal Luke now. NO WAY

Hochevar has been OUR BEST PITCHER IN JUNE

Zack ERA 4.05, 1.32 WHIP
Hoch ERA 2.94, .92 WHIP

So we are going to trade a guy who can slide in behind Meche and be one of the best 3rd starters in MLB???

So what is the batting assessment? I need a good laugh. It seems like we are all finally giving up on this season. I was thinking that if we started a streak until the All Star break we could compete. Then we lose two games in a row right away.

Lets talk FA. How does Nick Johnson sound? He is what we need as an OBP guy. I say lets trade Butler (he’s having a good year and will only be 24) for a guy like Carlos Triunfel and promote Kila. Hey the Mariners traded Jones for Bedard and Triunfel isn’t the best SS prospect after breaking his leg

by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 2, 2009 1:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

it's a little early to jump on the hochevar bandwagon....

remember kyle davies?

I, however, dont want to trade luke right now…his value is not nearly what it could be.

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jul 2, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That may be true about it being early but......

I think that Hochevar has more potential and upside than Kyle Davies. Davies has started just over 100 MLB games and has essentially failed in my opinion. To my knowledge there was never a “Davies Bandwagon” as much as there was excitement to get quality innings out of a major risk player in Davies. Anybody that honestly felt that Davies was going to be a solid-avg #3 starter was absolutely fooling themselves or intoxicated in some form (alcohol, sniffing gas/paint, etc.). I think this guys best shot (assuming he can actually show some command and cajones) would be a weak #5/Bullpen mop up guy. Just My opinion though.

by 2LegittoShit on Jul 2, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

there was talk here and elsewhere about when would be the right time to extend kyle davies....

remember the MGD nickname that was going around everywhere…Meche, Greinke, Davies?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jul 2, 2009 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Meche, Greinke, Davies… and enter Hades?

…and pardon, ladies?

and push up daisies?

No, doesn’t ring a bell with me.

by 2X2L on Jul 3, 2009 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd prefer a trade of Meche before Hochevar.

However, as we have seen with the lineup this season. There are a lot of holes to fill and if we can get 2 everyday players for 1 young pitcher, I wouldn’t mind the deal at all.

If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?showforum=129

by Warden11 on Jul 2, 2009 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I see your point....

The truth is some moves must be made. Even some that we all may not like right out of the gates. From what I know it seems that strengthening the org with prospects ensures a brighter future than holding on to aging players and a team thats gonna win maybe 70-75 games this yr. Obviously. However, I get the sneaking feeling that zero or not many moves will be made. Maybe the new stadium and the fan base are gonna prevent moves from happening. Its really sad in my opinion cause this could set the team back a couple of more years because the “big guys” in the administration are feeling pressure to win with this product. A ever growing shitty product at that.

by 2LegittoShit on Jul 2, 2009 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why do we need to trade Butler?

Sure, promote Kila….and give him a shot at DH.

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on Jul 2, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed. And Bench Mike Tobacco

Its amazing how much is wasted in the meat of the order with a .225 hitter and Jose “GIDP” Guillen

by 2LegittoShit on Jul 2, 2009 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think out of all our young players Butler's trade value is the highest

Not that we would get all that much for him, but there is still a chance he that “potential to be a batting champ one day” label

by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 3, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah but September is a terrible guage for pitching performance

remember Luke in 2007??? He was awesome and terrible the next year. Same with Davies. I want to see it in early-mid summer while teams are positioning for the playoffs

by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 2, 2009 1:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Um, you forgot Ponson.

How on earth?

"Well, if we destroy Kansas the world may not hear about it for years." Blofeld

The General Theory of Royaltivity

by kabrink on Jul 2, 2009 6:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Damn it.

How could I forget him.

If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?showforum=129

by Warden11 on Jul 2, 2009 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Blue blood is particularly valuable too!

Trade Bait.

"Well, if we destroy Kansas the world may not hear about it for years." Blofeld

The General Theory of Royaltivity

by kabrink on Jul 2, 2009 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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