Some People Get It, Some Don't

by royalsreview on Jul 21, 2009 3:00 PM EDT in News Comment 36 comments

According to Fangraphs, Franklin Gutierrez is the second best centerfielder in baseball:

Matt Kemp: 4.5 WAR
Franklin Gutierrez: 3.5 WAR
Toriiiiiiii Hunter: 3.0 WAR
Nyjer Morgan: 2.9 WAR
Colby Rasums: 2.8 WAR

[...]

Not bad for a guy who couldn't get much playing time with Cleveland, and is making $455,000 this year.

Coco Crisp, by the way, was having a middling but decent season WAR-wise prior to his injury. Coco accumulated a 1.2 WAR before going down, and I think it's reasonable to assume he'd be in the 10th-20th best CF range if he'd stayed healthy.

But now we can rebuild around Freel and St. Willie in CF, so its all good.

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Is WAR per game a legit stat

Crisp has .0244897959 WAR per game

If he somehow played every day, he could have 2.2 WAR, right?

Enough is Enough - Fire Trey Hillman

by BHWick on Jul 21, 2009 3:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

hmm...

I guess you could do that

2.2 would put him around 10th-13th, the Fukudome, Hairston, Gardner area

I’m on record as thinking that Coco was actually playing a little over his head, which could be too pessimistic given that his BA was really low

by royalsreview on Jul 21, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But

Crisp had to have had his numbers deflated by playing with multiple arm injuries.

WAR is not a rate stat and part of it depends on playing time.

For example, if you gave TPJ 162 games with his numbers, he’d be -3.24. While Betancourt with 162 games is -2.21

Which means that we’ll win 1 more game with more S-Key

Enough is Enough - Fire Trey Hillman

by BHWick on Jul 21, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and, not to mention

that with each win worth about $5mm, this move, for 1/2 a season, provides about $2.5 million in value for 2009 alone.

Yuni’s net salary for 2009, you ask? A cool $1mm. So, DM has created a nifty $1.5 million in value.

Kansas City Royals - rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic since 1994.

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jul 21, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2009 is not the issue with this trade

being stuck with him for the next two seasons is

by royalsreview on Jul 21, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

betancourt salary obligations

10:$3M, 11:$4M, 12:$6M club option ($2M buyout)

by royalsreview on Jul 21, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you're ignoring the money we're getting back

look at the bottom of the spreadsheet. we get $1.375 back in ’10 and ’11

Kansas City Royals - rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic since 1994.

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jul 21, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

whopee

we still get to play a guy who sucks for two seasons

if we are going to assume Moore would have kept TPJ around til 2012, then I guess we can be somewhat happy

i just don’t see having the worst SS in baseball, at any salary, as a victory

by royalsreview on Jul 21, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i am not trumpeting any victory

but, if we’re going VORP it and MORP it, then let’s not ignore when the numbers say something we don’t like.

Betancourt is not the worst SS in baseball, Tony Pena was. Betancourt is a massive upgrade over Tony Pena.

If Betancourt is a 1.0 WAR player next year and 2011 (which is obviously very questionable), he will have been worth about 2x what we’re paying him, correct?

Ignore the fact that there may have been better options out there, that’s not the point I’m making. I’m simply making a point that if we’re going VORP it up, then we have to acknowledge that this deal actually could create positive value to the team.

Kansas City Royals - rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic since 1994.

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jul 21, 2009 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you're assigning

Yunie value based on his improvement over TPJ. That’s not how it works. He’s currently at -1 WAR, which means anything over the league minimum is a loss when comparing dollars-to-wins. Theoretically the Royals should have been able to find someone with 0 WAR for $400k. I know that seems impossible, but that’s probably b/c we’re used to the Royals personnel moves.

RR’s point (I’m guessing) is that Yunie was the worst everyday SS. TPJ was NOT playing every day.

by stuckinstl12 on Jul 21, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

for like two months this season... maybe...

even if you assume that TPJ was going to play every day in 2009, which I think is doubtful, there’s still no evidence that he was going to be around in 2010 or 2011

when you factor in Cortes and the opportunity cost involved for finding a better option at SS, I don’t see much positive value

by royalsreview on Jul 21, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

VORP does not account for defense

. . . and there’s your negative value.

by Gopherballs on Jul 22, 2009 2:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it was mostly meant as a joke

although we’re only paying him $2mm next year as well, so if he’s worth about .5 WAR then it’s an even deal (ignoring the prospects, of course).

Kansas City Royals - rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic since 1994.

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jul 21, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and... TPJ wasn't going to play full time the rest of the season, and didn't play full time prior to being DFA'ed

so we’d need to compare Yuni to St. Willie/TPJ combo

by royalsreview on Jul 21, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

from my mobile

So no easy access to data, but iirc, his BB% and ISO were way over his 3 year weghd average, too, I.e. Due for regression. Check his ZIPS RoS #s, his wOBAprojected might be a bit lower than it ended]t.

But, no, he wasn’t¥p going to be close to the best CF in the league.

Although you’d think a quick look at his AVG would have told Dayton that.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Jul 21, 2009 3:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

you are correct

his BB rate was at 13.9%, which he’d never remotely approached, he’d been at 8.8 and 8.7 the past two years
his ISO was at .150, which he’d not seen since his good Cleveland days

by royalsreview on Jul 21, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Teahen for Gutierrez was an absolute lie!!!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 21, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what did the M's give up?

by stuckinstl12 on Jul 21, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

threeway trade i believe...

by royalsreview on Jul 21, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

December 11, 2008: Traded as part of a 3-team trade by the Cleveland Indians to the Seattle Mariners. The Seattle Mariners sent Sean Green, J.J. Putz and Jeremy Reed to the New York Mets. The Seattle Mariners sent Luis Valbuena to the Cleveland Indians. The New York Mets sent Ezequiel Carrera (minors), Maikel Cleto (minors), Mike Carp (minors), Endy Chavez, Aaron Heilman and Jason Vargas to the Seattle Mariners. The New York Mets sent Joe Smith to the Cleveland Indians.

by royalsreview on Jul 21, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

M's best trade in 20 years - only the Langston for Randy Johnson and Buhner for Ken Phelps top it.

And we flipped Heilman for Ronny Cedeno and Garret Olson.

Dave Cameron on April 1:

I still think this deal has a ~20% chance of being the best trade in franchise history

Seriously. In terms of asset value:

Gutierrez is a +2 to +3 win player in his prime and making pre-arb money. That’s around a $20 million asset.
Carp has a decent chance to be a +2 win first baseman. He’s probably a $7 or $8 million asset right now.
Chavez is a +1.5 win player making $2 million. He’s a $1 or $2 million asset.
Vargas and Olson are both decent back-end starter options with a little upside. Probably $2 or $3 million apiece.
Cedeno is a +0.5 win player with a little upside. $1 or $2 million asset.
Carrera has a decent chance to be a +1 win outfielder. Another $1 or $2 million asset.
Cleto’s value has basically been wiped out since he can’t get a visa, but that wasn’t really predictable.

All told, the M’s got something like $35 to $40 million worth of value in return for a broken closer, a ROOGY who was easily replaced by waiver wire fodder, an outfielder who will probably be non-tendered after the season, and one good prospect. Valbuena would have to be the best prospect in baseball for this trade to not look good. .

Vargas has proven himself a legit #5 starter going forward – he’s just been in Tacoma for the past few weeks to keep his innnings down after he missed all of 2008 with a leg injury. He was a league average pitcher this June.

Endy Chavez was a league-average starting outfielder (killer d balancing out offensive suck) (or the perfect fourth outfielder) before getting hurt by Yuni!.

Ezequiel Carrera looks like a 22 year old Endy clone and is tearing up AA right now. And Carp is having a excellent year (in a pitcher’s park)

by Decatur on Jul 21, 2009 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

can we hire dave?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jul 22, 2009 1:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the best way to represent your strategy is WAR per 600 PAs

Kemp 7.1
Gutier 6.3
Hunter 5.6
Morgan 4.5
Rasmus 5.4

Crisp 3.3

not up with the best, but pretty solid. you could also do the stat per some number (140?) games or per a different number of PAs, however you think it is best to represent a full season.

on this note, i think it’s important to show both the rate stat (i.e., per/600) and the counting stat (accumulated WAR) together.

but that’s just me

"The life of a (Royals) fan must be lived forward but can only be understood backward" -- Kierkegaard (more or less)

by benfunke on Jul 21, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is WAR is the gnosis

by which restoration is achieved?

Or is it a pretty good indication of a players’ value?

I guess I don’t get it.

by 2X2L on Jul 21, 2009 3:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i don't think its perfect

but it combines offense & defense & positional adjustments

personally, I sometimes feel that it overrates defense a little, but i think its a good quick & dirty stat for overall value

by royalsreview on Jul 21, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That part I get. What I don’t get is the title of the post. Who doesn’t get what?

by 2X2L on Jul 21, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

fair question

I was mainly thinking of those who know Gutierrez is the bomb, and those who don’t… i just included the stuff on crisp for the hell of it, and it may have given off the impression that it was another anti-dayton post, which it wasn’t

at least not directly

by royalsreview on Jul 21, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OK, thanks for the explanation.

by 2X2L on Jul 21, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if WAR is quick and dirty, what more precise measure would you recommend?

Are the offensive linear weights off? If so, how?

How is defense overrated? This is a different question than how to take the unknown amount of error into account. Is it that you think a run saved isn’t the same as a run earned? Why not?

Do you not buy the conversion to runs? It’s done in a similar process by which offensive run values are derived.

No one claims WAR n general is precise. Fogs will hopefully add baserunnning (although wOBA already accounts for SB and CS) and hopefully they will also switch for different lg replacement levels.

But the individual components (offense, defense, pos. Adjustments) are based on the best available data and methods. And its eminently tweak able.

If WAR is quick and dirty, most other stats are compost.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Jul 21, 2009 4:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Well, now you've done it

This is what the Royals’ front office will get out of that comment:

most … stats are compost

by 2X2L on Jul 21, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

tremendous

my bad

sorry for the pedantry and the typos (even for me), all. I’m on the laptop for a bit now to regale you all with my “wisdom.”

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by devil_fingers on Jul 21, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm curious...

where would DDJ rank if he was being used as a CF?

Tension is the enemy. - Charlie Lau

by aHorseWithNoName on Jul 21, 2009 3:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

hard to say

because opinions vary pretty widely on how he is defensively in CF

considering he’s having one of the best seasons of any LF in the AL right now, I think he’d be, at the very least, OK

and his bat isn’t bad for a CF this year, just look at some of the guys on the list above

I think he’d be around where Coco was/would be… middle of the pack range

by royalsreview on Jul 21, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Coco is overrated...

I don’t think defensive metrics can account for how truly horrible his arm is.

Coco was fantastic the first month of the season but was absolutely terrible May-June. If he was hurt so be it, but there is no way we should pay more than 3 million dollars for him next year.

by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 21, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs