Mariners DFA Balentien

Maybe there's a Seattle reject Dayton can grab who actually might be a reasonable gamble.

over 2 years ago jsolo 29 comments 0 recs |

Comments

Advanced statistics are pretty interesting for Wladimir

His UZR/150 is 10.5 this year, which would be particular nice if he played LF and moved Dejesus to center. He did have a -9.5 UZR/150 last year though.

Hitting stats are all over the place. They are obviously terrible this year, but his minor league track record is promising.

I personally think he’s worth a gamble, even based on defensive numbers alone.

by jsolo on Jul 25, 2009 6:49 PM EDT reply actions

As I 'tweeted' (ugh)

I agree. He’s been bad, and shouldn’t be expected to be the next Nelson Cruz, to say the least. ZiPS RoS says he’s about a .310 wOBA guy. And the preseason projections agreed.

His UZR rating suggest an average defensive corner guy. Interestingly, CHONe’s preseason TotalZone projections had him at +7 on the corners, and average in CF. That’s seems high to me given the limited UZR data and the Fans Scouting Report, but I think it’s fair to say he’s an average defender.

Still, he’ll come practically free, at the minimum, and he onlly just turned 25. Why not take a chance on him at the minimum? He can always be cut after the season. He may not be a starter, but he’d be a cheap option as a 4th OF perhaps.

Better than dealing for Ryan Freel, fasho.

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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 25, 2009 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions

see below

this space reserved for something embarrassing nyroyal will have me say

by marbotty on Jul 25, 2009 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions

and better than MITCH

by BrRoyal on Jul 26, 2009 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Absolutely

These are exactly the kind of players we should be looking for – talented players who have had some struggles and are young enough to have upside.

And if Jose Guillen, Gil Meche and Willie Bloomquist can vouch for him, I’m sure he’s awesome!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 25, 2009 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Maier > Balentin < Freel

Duh….

by kansasjhawk044 on Jul 25, 2009 7:00 PM EDT reply actions

this was likely a (rare) mistake by seattle

Royals should jump on top of this. He’s struggled, but he’s only had 400 at bats. Give him a season’s worth in KC, and then make a determination.

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by marbotty on Jul 25, 2009 7:09 PM EDT reply actions

not sure why, but can't reply to D_F above -- but Nelson Cruz actually isn't a bad comparison

Balentein hit better than Cruz did at AAA at a younger level, and they were both terrible during their initial tryouts with their respective clubs, with each around .260-.270 OBP, .360-.380ish SLGs. Cruz still had better numbers, but he broke into the league at an older age, and was playing in a better hitters park.

Defensively, I can’t say how they match up.

this space reserved for something embarrassing nyroyal will have me say

by marbotty on Jul 25, 2009 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions

though should add Cruz demonstrated far superior plate discipline the first few years of their minor league careers

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by marbotty on Jul 25, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Heh - I'm sure plate discipline - or lack thereof

won’t deter DM from signing him. At least we have that going for us…

by jsolo on Jul 25, 2009 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

before i forget

At dinner now, but something came to me and I don’t want to forget.

Wlad’s projections all assume he’s playing in SAFECO, which is hard on RHH. I’ll look again when I get home, but CHONE’s neutral projections ate more generous. Not sure how that translates to the K.

More later.

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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 25, 2009 8:03 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

chone has quite the appetite

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by marbotty on Jul 25, 2009 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions

hey, you try motoring a post out on a BlackBerry in a restaurant with your "life partner!"

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Jul 25, 2009 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I would be pretty excited about getting this guy

I wanted him for Dotel and not Davies. But I think Moore probably made the right choice considering he was just DFA’d.

As a 4th OFer it wouldn’t take much to beat Maier, Freel, and Bloomquist. And the outfield would look a little better without Guillen.

LF – Balentien
CF – DDJ
RF – Teahen

DFA Jose Guillen this offseason or make him DH with Jacobs, or DFA them both and let Kila split time with Billy at 1B/DH. Or pay all but the minimum of Guillen’s salary and get a PTBNL in return. He’s lost so much, he should just retire. And after his “I suck” rant, I think there is a small possibility he could do that.

by AxDxMx on Jul 26, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions

This is obviously

Seattle’s way of making up for the Betancourt fleecing.

(My conspiratorial mind also recognizes the possibility that Seattle promised to expose Balentien to waivers at a later date — you know, at a later date when the Royals had fallen behind Cleveland in the standings — rather than expose him at a time when Cleveland could have soured the deal by claiming him.)

Of course, if that’s true, then Dayton has to claim him…

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by jonfmorse on Jul 26, 2009 12:16 AM EDT reply actions

I hope it's true, but why wouldn't they just include him in the deal then?

It doesn’t seem like there is any advantage to putting him on waivers for the Royals to claim when they could just trade him straight up. He shouldn’t have any weird stipulations in his contract with as young as he is.

by jsolo on Jul 26, 2009 2:23 AM EDT up reply actions

At the time the trade was made

Cleveland had the worst record in the league, and could have claimed Balentien when they designated him, thus botching the deal.

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by jonfmorse on Jul 26, 2009 2:58 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, but jsolo

is saying why not just include him in the deal? (IF they had mentioned that he was going to be available, which I highly doubt)

He can get 4, NOT 5.

by Warden11 on Jul 26, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions

I know

and I was explaining why they might not have included him in the deal.

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by jonfmorse on Jul 26, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Let me clarify my question

Is there any reason Seattle wouldn’t include Balentien in the deal to begin with? Before August, a team doesn’t have to put a player through waivers to trade him, so I don’t know of any reason why that would be the case here.

by jsolo on Jul 26, 2009 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh, crap

Yeah, now I see. I completely forgot about that.

Oh, well. So much for that opportunity to credit Moore with savvy, cleverness, and the heart of a bandit.

This space for rent.

by jonfmorse on Jul 26, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

That's what we get for giving Moore too much credit

I still hope he claims Wlad and maybe it will restore some faith in him

by jsolo on Jul 26, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Goodbye, Danny Duffy!

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 26, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions

it's okay, morse

you’re just a kind, gentle soul at heart

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 26, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Don't make me send those pictures

to Kyle.

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by jonfmorse on Jul 27, 2009 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Just messing around (experimentally) with CHONE's preseason

six-year projection, which doesn’t take into account this year’s performance, of course, but is in neutral figures. They are expressed in neutralized numbers. I took those neutralized numbers, then used Brian Cartwright’s component park factors and plugged Wlad’s six-year projection into Kaufman, starting with 2009… Maybe I messed it up. I assumed aveage defense and corner outfield, and full-time play (about 150 games/season). Here are the WAR numbers I got.

2009 1.6
2010 1.8
2011 2.1
2012 2.2
2013 2.2
2014 1.9

Very speculative, of course. If he’s a +7 defender like TotalZone projects, then he’s clearly average, but he’s semi-close here. Compared do Safeco, Kaufman actually depresses HRs for RHH even more, but increases all other kinds of hits, and decreases Ks.

Definitely worth a pickup.

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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 26, 2009 12:37 AM EDT reply actions

Oh, here are the "three slash" and wOBA's I generated from this

2009 .254/.326/.437 .334
2010 .255/.330/.441 .337
2011 .258/.336/.451 .343
2012 .259/.338/.452 .345
2013 .257/.338/.450 .345
2014 .253/.336.438 .340

Around an average player… Sorta like Teahen. Not a star by any stretch, but very valuable when cost-controlled.

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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 26, 2009 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions

If Dayton doesn't make this move, it wouldn't make sense

JoGui is likely gone for the year and Dayton is in “win now” mode, this is tailor made for the Royals. And like jonfmorse said above, if Balentien was actually part of the Yuniefi trade, that would make it a LOT easier to stomach. In fact, had he been included, I think the deal may even have been very acceptable.

by AxDxMx on Jul 26, 2009 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions

D'oh, F-d up the factors

gave ’em straight, forgot to account for only playing half his games in Kaufman, Not a huge difference. LOwer avg/obp, more HRs.

Year/AVG/OBP/SLG/wOBA/WAR

2009 0.249 0.321 0.442 0.332 1.5
2010 0.250 0.325 0.446 0.335 1.7
2011 0.253 0.330 0.456 0.342 2.0
2012 0.254 0.332 0.457 0.344 2.1
2013 0.252 0.332 0.455 0.344 2.1
2014 0.248 0.330 0.444 0.339 1.9

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Jul 26, 2009 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions