Shouldn't we be doing what the Pirates (the NL version of the Royals) are doing?
by GoBabies!! on Jul 29, 2009 11:27 PM EDT
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PrintBy my math, the Pirates have been involved in the following trades lately...
June 4: The Pirates traded Nate McClouth to the Braves (!) for Gorkys Hernandez, Charlie Morton & Jeff Locke.
June 30: The Pirates traded Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett to the Nationals for Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan.
July 22: The Pirates dealt Adam Laroche to the Red Sox for MiLB pitcher Hunter Strickland & SS Argenis Diaz.
July 29: The Pirates dealt Ian Snell, Jack Wilson and cash to the Mariners for Ronny Cedeno, Jeff Clement, Aaron Pribanic, Brett Lorin and Nathan Adcock.
July 29: The Pirates dealt Freddy Sanchez to the Giants for Tim Alderson.
In Summation, they basically gutted a shitty team in Exchange for comperable Major league talent in some instances and a bevy of Minor League prospects in others. In total (so far) they have dumped 7 Major league players (I'm considering Snell a MLB'er for sake of argument) and about $3M and received 4 Major League players and 9 Minor League players, including...
The Braves # 8 & #10 Prospect (Hernandez & Locke)
The Red Sox #16 Prospect (Diaz)
The Mariners # 18 Prospect (Adcock)
The Giants # 3 Prospect (Alderson)
- Prospect ratings via John Sickels MinorLeagueBall.com
The Pirates, no matter how well they drafted were NEVER going to win the World Series, let alone get to the playoffs with a nucleus of Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez, Nyjer Morgan, et all. It has been fascinating to see them get such high returns for players that as a whole, were as bad as, if not worse than our Royals.
The Royals, no matter how well we draft are NEVER going to win a World Series, let alone go to the playoffs with a nucleus of Mark Teahen, Alex Gordon, David Dejesus, et all. It has been fascinating to see them claiming to 'stick to the plan' while flat refusing, or flat UNABLE to find a trade partner for a group of players that were as bad as the Pirates, who haved effectively held 25% of another Major League Draft in the past 6 weeks by adding 9 players to their Minor Leagues.
What sickens me more & more as I write this, is just thinking about how barren OUR upper Minor Leagues are, and how a series of trades like this could have instantly re-stocked NW Ark & Omaha w/ real, honest to goodness prospects again. If we had traded (Royal listed with his Pirate comperable in parenthesis) Gordon or Butler (McClouth), Tejada? (Burnett), Teahen (LaRoche), Davies (Snell) & Callaspo (Sanchez) we might not have gotten the haul the Pirates have gotten in the past 6 weeks, but we would surely have a wave of potential players ready to come to KC next year, or 2010, right before the next wave of Hosmer, Moose, et all...
Stand Pat. It's the Kansas City way.
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I don't think that'll happen
Sure it’s nice to think what we could or should be doing, but DM is convinced that when everyone’s healthy and whatnot, we’ll be ready to “win now” in 2010. Because it’s obviously all the injuries fault. Our bullpen is fine, it’s just what Dayton wanted. 2010 AL Central Champs baby!
Phase 1: Assemble expensive, below average players
Phase 2: ?
Phase 3: CHAMPIONSHIP!
-RoyalsRetro
by ratherfantastic on Jul 29, 2009 11:39 PM EDT reply actions
Short answer: yes
we can argue about which players should come and go (I think Gordon and Butler should stick around for a while, especially Gordon’s value is low right now coming off the injury), but, yeah, well, I’ve been saying this for a while.
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Agreed
But I’d bet that if you polled educated Pirates fans, they would have said the same thing RE: McClouth.
Granted, the one major difference is Pittsburgh had McCutchen ready to step in McClouths spot, which simply highlights how weak we are from AA up in that we can’t trade ANYBODY on the roster, and have someone come up and replace (either now or in the near future) his production, save possibly Butler w/ KK, which just goes to prove my point further as to the need to pull off deals of this nature
BOOM! ROASTED!
yeah, it depends on the player, I'm just saying that the overall plan is the right one, then you debate on who is in or out
McLouth is already 28, and he had a lot of value coming off a really good season (not as good as people thought, because of his terrible CF defense, but whatever0, and also had additinoal value because of a very club-friendly contract. He’d already peaked, most likely.
Whereas Gordon and Butler don’t have that kind of value at this point, and (hopefully) haven’t peaked. I"m not saying either is going to be a star, but what the Pirates did was to sell high on McLouth. Certainly, in Gordon’s case, the Royals would be selling low.
A crude was of saying it is that there shouldn’t be anyone 29 or over on this team by the end of the year. Yeah, exceptions, etc, but the general point stands. Get what you can.
And for heaven’s sake, don’t trade or pay more than $1M/1 for guys over 29.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2009 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions
The question is though, who do we sell?
Gordon, Butler, greinke, soria, are off the table
Aviles, DDJ, Meche, Bannister, BPJ are all good enough to hold on to and could definately contribute to a winning team
which leaves us: Guillen, Bloomquist, Betancourt, Chen, Ponson, Davies, Jacobs, Olivo, Buck, Freel and the bullpen
and who would pick up ANY of those guys? The only possible trade bait I can see this team having is Davies and Olivo.
The Problem with this team, and something that I’ve advocated time and again, isnt that we dont have the player at the upper end to compete, most of the guys at the top would be enough to help this team to a post season berth, but the problem stems from a lack of league average guys
At the end of the day the biggest mark of a contending team, isnt neccesarily that you have superstars carrying you to the postseason, its that you don’t have an easy out in your lineup, or a pitcher in your rotation that could practically be a day off
This is why I am worried about the moore regime, not because I doubt their ability to develop superstars, Its that I’m worried that moore cannot find the savvy pickups that provide the extra 1-2 war at each position.
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True, but they could also bring multiple players that will help when the Royals are actually in a position to contend for a playoff spot.
Aviles, DDJ, Meche, Bannister, BPJ are all good enough to hold on to and could definately contribute to a winning team
I’m a big fan of Bannister, DDJ, and Teahen, I’m just not sure they will be around by the time the Royals are a winning team.
This all goes back to accepting the reality that the Royals aren’t winning this year and competing next year is a huge stretch, get guys that will contribute in 2011-12.
He can get 4, NOT 5.
you dont see Bannister, DDJ and teahen contributing in 2 years?
The biggest thing for me is where are you going to replace their production from?
Even in a couple of years DDJ will likely be a 3-4 WAR player, teahen gives the team a super backup that is worth 2-3 WAR
and even Banny is likely going to be a 3-4 WAR player.
Thats a LOT of production to be replacing, and equally importantly, none of these guys will be expensive.
Its not hard to see all of these guys being signed for $5 million apeice, meaning you’d be paying $15 million for almost $45 million in production…
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They could be solid players, but you also have to consider their cost in 2 more years.
DDJ- 2.7 WAR the last two years, on pace for a similar year this year. 4.7 M next year and 6 M the year after. Not overpaid, but not prospect cheap.
Teahen- 2.3 WAR in 2007, 0.1 in 2008, and 1.3 so far this year (so around 2). 3.8 M this year, so 4.5-5 next year in arbitration and it’s only going up.
Solid contributing pieces for a contending ball club, the Royals aren’t that. Trading these guys will save money and fill in the gaps at NW Arkansas and Omaha.
He can get 4, NOT 5.
Teahen and DDJ are ~2.5 WAR players
those aren’t “4th outfielder” or “super utility” types as some people seem to think, but they can’t carry a team either. They can start for good teams, but hte Royals aren’t a good team… these guys can’t be your foundations. By 2011 (let’s pretend the Royals have anything more than a 5% chance or whatever of contending that season), neither will be starting.
Almost every player is decling by 29 DDJ’s already there. Every player has the most value right after they’re peaking, not when they’re clearly in the midst of a decline. A team like the Royals has to get what they can while they can.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2009 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions
(Teahen is 2.5 WAR at best)
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2009 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I actually think Teahen is underrated by WAR simply because of his utility man status.
If we look at the last full season that Teahen spent at a position (2007) we see that he was actually much better in the field than he is now (+8 to -6) and now hes hitting better almost .015 points better on his wOBA and is on pace to create about 8 more runs, offsetting the decline in defense
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Yes, and in 2007 he was in right field
which is about 10 runs /1 win less valuable than 3B, which he plays in the same sense that Alberto Callaspo plays 2B.
And defense starts deciing much earlier than offense.
And once you regress UZR over the seasons, Teahen’s about average in the outfield. And really, Teahen hasn’t been a “utility” guy at all, that’s just were people think he should go. He played the outfield almost exclusively in 2007 and 2008 (only played 1B a few games, and 3B only when Gordon was hurt).
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2009 1:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, he's hitting better
But one year’s stats don’t mean anything. I think he’s a true talent .340-.350 hitter, but for an corner OF with average defesnse, that’s an average player.
Again, if the Royals were in contention, keep him around. They aren’t. And won’t be for a while.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2009 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Now you are starting to sound a bit like Neyer...
The simple fact is that these players dont grow on trees, you can’t just grab on from the minors for free, and if you want to at least try to contend you need a lineup with 4-5 of these guys in it
Just because the Royals aren’t contending this year, and probably not next year isn’t a reason not to hold on to a decent player. Especially if theres a chance of the team contending in 2 years.
Oh…and the diffrence between a COF and 3B defensively is about 9 runs…Mark was 14 Runs better in RF…its not a big stretch to suggest that if he hits like he has and plays D in RF that he could come close to 3 wins
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That's right, they don't grow on trees
but they do decline. That’s why you trade the 28 year-old, $5M version for a 22 year-old, $400,000 model
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2009 2:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I may be crazy, but I think Teahen is there. The .360's BABIP is scary.
Every player has the most value right after they’re peaking
He can get 4, NOT 5.
its scary...but not really out of line to much with Teahen
His Career Babip is .333 and hes touched .360 before in 2007.
Perhaps even more encouraging is that despite have a similar babip, his average and slugging are both higher than they were then
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yes, and following 2007 he crashed
Look, I think Teahen can match this year’s production offensively…
the thing is, even with this production, he’s a 2.5 WAR player at best. IT’s pretty unlikely he’s gong to be better th an that
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2009 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions
He crashed..in a year in which he had the worst BABIP of his career.
By far…more than a 60 point diffrence from the previous year, and more than 30 points off his career.
I’d say right now…that that season appears to be the anomaly…not the other way around.
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the are all part of a performance record
I spent all offseason defending TEahen from people who said that 2006 was an “outlier that should be thrown out” — a really silly way to think about player projection. And the same thing applies to 2007. BABIP is tough to project, and my thoughts on Teahen aren’t reliant on it. When you ignore it, and just regress hits, walks, Ks, power, etc. to the average, weight the past 3-4 years performance and apply a slightly aging adjustment, well, he projects as being a about as good or slightly worse than he is not. Most players start to decline around 28, just slightly.
Again -Teahen doesn’t suck, I defended him all winter, and my defense turned out to be right - Teahen is around an average player. The point is that the Royals need to turn that into resources for the future.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2009 2:13 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I guess the problem is whether or not you think the Royals can contend in 2011
Personally I think they can, I think it would take some corrections of mistakes by Moore and company, and some more growth from Gordon, butler, Hoch and Duffy making it to the big leagues..But I think this team is in a position to compete in 2 years.
and in order to compete you have to hold on to some talent, even at 2.5 WAR, these are guys that you can’t just go out and pick up off the scrap heap. and right now there is no one really in the minors to replace them.
and even then at $5-6 million apiece these are still a bargain.
and something to remember, players stop improving around 29, but many don’t really begin to decline until 32-33. There is a window, where players aren’t necessarily at their peak, but can continue to contribute at a level close to it.
If DeJesus can contribute offensively like he did last year for 3-4 more years and contribute defensively in LF like this year, then there really is no reason to replace him.
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SO all that has to happen
is that Gordon, Butler, and Hoch have to all become stars, Duffy becomes a #3, Greinke stays healthy and around the 6-7 WAR/season mark, Meche isn’t done , Banny stays good, TEahen and DDJ don’t decline at all,
and, most simply, Dayton Moore suddenly has to be not just competent at valuing and acquiring players (a miracle at this point), but above average.
It’s doable.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2009 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions
thats a bit fatalistic...
I think butler is already breaking out, I dont think its hard to imagine Greinke staying healthy and productive.
I’d give Meche a good chance to bounce back
I dont think Either Teahen or DDJ will decline appreciably
Honestly the only things I’d be worried about are Gordon gettiing power back, Banny maintaining his success and Duffy being a #3.
But even then, I dont think Duffy has to be a #3, I think if hes simply a good 4 (or Crowe if we get him signed and up in 2 years) then that could be one of the best rotations in the majors.
really the only out there thing would be GMDM becoming a good judge of a players value.
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Sure, Butler is playing well
I don’t know what “breaking out” is supposed to mean. You do realize that not counting tonight’s 0-fer, butler’s almost exactly average this season, right? I like Billy, but the chances of him being a 5 WAR monster are quite slim.
I’d like to hear why you don’t think DDJ will decline, when he’s already about two wins worse than he was in 2006. Why will he defy the agig curve that affects pretty much every player according to every good study ever done, that shows decline after 27-28?
I was messing around today, and off the top of my head, all things staying the same (i.e., DDJ and Teahen are just as good next season, Teahen in RF), If Greinke puts up a 6 WAR season next year (anyone who p rojects anything more for that than any pitcher based on one great season is… interesting)… if Butler and Gordon both somehow become 5 WAR players next season,t he Royals are still barely .500. That’s crude, but that tells you something about the rest of the team. And where’s the help coming from.
Do you really want to make a plan for a baseball team, or any b usiness, that depends on pretty much everything going perfectly?
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2009 2:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Is it really 28-29 that players begin to decline?
I’ve seen you quote that in a couple of places.I thought it was more like RoyalPug put it- players stop improving around 28/29 but they don’t really decline for another couple of years.
That said, I could be wrong- is it really true that players start going into decline that early? And is it minor decline or steep decline? If they “plateau” or even if they slightly decline, isn’t it best to keep them during those years to maximize your return and then trade them right before they exit that phase (tho, obviously, you cannot perfectly predict that)?
I'm guessing that's said because the "peak" is typically around age 27
And some players fall off a cliff at 32.
That's in general
generally speaking, with each year, as one would expect, a there’s not only a decline, but an increase in the r ate of decline. It’s different for every player, and each skill has a different aging curve, but everything and every study I’ve read generally agrees (with variations) that, on the average:
- Speed and and defense start to decline almost immediately — probably around 23-24 (“offensive speed” declines more quickly than defense)
- Contact and HR rate peak at 27, although contact usually declines more quickly, sometimes leading to more isolated power until about 31 (although not always, of course)
- While walk rate alone increases on average until about 37, strikeouts also increase after 27 (cf. contact)
- BABIP usually peaks in the mid-20s (to the extent we can measure the skill)
- health also declines for positoin players after their mid-20s
Moreover, just look at DDJ’s numbers for some specifics of a guy who is actually fairly athletic overall, and still has been declining since his age 25 and 26 seasons (2006 and 2007):
- not just his AVG, but also his ISO peaked in 2006. His speed score (based on steals, attempts, triples, and other stuff) has decreased form 2007 to 2008 to 2009.
- He was never a good basestealer, but he’s managed to get worse since then (as one would expect with age). Through 2007, Dan Fox had him as one of the best guys in the history of baseball at taking the extra base. In 2008 and 2009, he’s fallen off to being pretty bad at that.
- He’s still a good defender… but there’s a big difference between being a +18 LF and a +20 CF (just the raw, unregressed numbers)… more than one runs a season for DDJ there.
None of this is to say that DDJ is a bad player — he’s still probably above average overall true talen tthis season, but I’m just using him to point out how he confirms the general point that players decline much earlier that we sometimes think. Yes, it doesn’t apply to everyone, but betting on exceptions to the rule is what Dayton Moore’s Royals to where they are today. And DDJ’s own numbers confirm that he has declined. So why should we posit a platueau for him specifically?
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2009 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm just wondering if DM will jettison any of his obviously bad signings for next year
What are the chances they cut Guillen, Jacobs, Yuni, Farnsworth and just take the loss and move on?
I doubt it will happen but it needs to be the first thing to happen before this team can contend. The FO has to recognize what a sunk cost is.
(To be fair, I don’t expect DM to give up on Yuni after he traded two prospects for him. Maybe if Aviles or Bianchi is tearing up AAA next year someone else will get a shot and push Yuni to backup, but I doubt he’ll just get tossed anytime soon)
well if he keeps hitting like this DM will have to admit the mistake.
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Yes, he's been so good about that so far
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2009 2:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, yes, and yes
I really like what Pittsburgh is doing. All may not be lost there after all.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Too bad
Maybe if everything fell apart Huntington would get canned and take over the Royals
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I love what Huntington is doing with the Pirates
It’s bold, yet he’s being realistic.
If Teahen and DDJ are still with the Royals on Saturday, it will be a huge failure for DM. This season is over and we have Thorman and Lubanski that can play OF the rest of the season. We aren’t going to win many games either way. DFA Jacobs and call up KK asap.
And the Pirates just keep rebuilding...
ESPN Chicago says the Cubs sent pitchers Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio to Pittsburgh for Grabow and Gorzelanny. Ed Price, via Twitter, says the Cubs are also sending third baseman Josh Harrison.
Add the Cubs # 9 prospect to their list…
By my count, that is 8 ML’ers, 1 MiLer & $3MIL that the Pirates have culled in exchange for TWELVE MINOR LEAGUERS and 4 ML’ers!
Meanwhile, KC will surely sign Russ Ortiz sometime over the next 48 hours…
BOOM! ROASTED!
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