Royals Trade Deadline Open Thread: Brian Bannister, Mark Teahen, Ron Mahay, Willie Bloomquist and Others Await Their Fate
by Freneau on Jul 31, 2009 3:15 AM EDT
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PrintAnd now, will you please join me in prayer. I think you know what I'm whispering to folded hands, don't you?
July 31, is probably my favorite day of the sports year. Sure, it almost always ends up being a letdown, but don't most things really?
As we've done the last few years, post your deadline day comments here and if you see a good link... please share it. Together, we can religiously check the same six rumor sites constantly for the next twelve or so hours. And if you get really bored, don't forget to recap Dayton's past deadlines.
- Ethan Skolnick's Season Ticket | Sun-Sentinel Blogs: Florida Marlins: Serious about winning? Get a starting pitcher (like Brian Bannister, he proposes)
- Royals Fielding Calls For Brian Bannister - MLB Daily Dish
- DFA’d Player Update, Josh Anderson, and Royals Related Rumors | Kings of Kauffman | A Kansas City Royals Blog
- Bannister, Bloomquist, Teahen Drawing Interest: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com
- Cubs in search of lefty bat who can play right :: CHICAGO SUN-TIMES :: Cubs
- BaseballAmerica.com: Majors: Trade Central: 2009
- Shouldn't we be doing what the Pirates (the NL version of the Royals) are doing? - Royals Review
- Poll: Should Dayton Moore Be Fired Right Now? - Royals Review
- This is kinda cool. Victor Rojas of MLBN started following me on twitter about a week ago. I think he's a closet Royals fan. Victor Rojas (VR29) on Twitter
- MLB trade deadline buzz: Thursday's edition - MLB News - FOX Sports on MSN
- Here's a jam to listen to as we wait: YouTube - Steve Winwood - Don't You Know What The Night Can Do? (HQ available)
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Jesus Hector Christ
Anyone but Banny!! The only move involving Brian Bannister I would approve of would be having him replace Moore or Hillman.
Banny seems to be the only guy in the Royals organization that understands that his production can be numerically recorded to indicate his tendencies. He also realizes that he can use those numbers to evaluate and adjust those tendencies. If DM and Hillman could tear that page out of BB’s notebook we might have ourselves a contender in KC. Unfortunately, I think the only teams that recognize this sophisticated approach are the ones salivating at the opportunity to get him for nothing.
I predict Tampa Bay.
If Brian Bannister is dealt, it will be a sad day in Kansas City.
by FretFriendly on Jul 31, 2009 4:36 AM EDT reply actions 3 recs
+1
But, upon pondering it for a while, I realized I’m being a bit hippocritical by saying don’t trade Banny, and writing this…http://www.royalsreview.com/2009/7/29/968613/shouldnt-we-be-doing-what-the
If GMDM DOES trade away Banny, he better get a freaking haul for him. Obviously he won’t get anything comparable to what the Tribe got for Lee, but they better not settle for anything less than a guy that will immediately land in KC’s top 10 prospects and one other that will be fringe top-20 or more…
BOOM! ROASTED!
Banny?
Am I missing the sarcasm, or is this the same Brian Bannister who has a career WHIP of 1.36, a career K:BB under 2, a career ERA over 4.5, and a career FIP even higher?
by stlfan on Jul 31, 2009 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Same guy...
But he appears to be the first player to used “advanced stats” to change the type of pitcher he is. This year he is walking less players he has a slightly better than league average ERA and his FIP is greatly improved. Everyone knew that his 07 was a fluke and 08 proved that. There is no reason to think that the changes he has made to make him a “good” starter aren’t sustainable.
Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures
by averagegatsby on Jul 31, 2009 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for the info
Just found the article over at fangraphs. Awesome. I agree, keep him…unless you get something worthwhile. I’ll just have to disagree with what “worthwhile” might mean.
by stlfan on Jul 31, 2009 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
PLEASE KEEP BANNY, Mr. GMDM, PLEASE!!!!!!!
soon to change name to, "The Not So Curious Case of Benjamin Bratt"
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Jul 31, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
From http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9871032/MLB-trade-deadline-buzz:-Thursday's-edition
“Royals ready to get in the mix? — 8:38 p.m.
The Royals have been one of the quieter teams leading up to the trade deadline, but it remains possible that they will make a trade (possibly two) before Friday at 4 p.m. ET.
One source with close knowledge of their plans said a handful of clubs have remained in contact with the Royals about infielder/outfielder Mark Teahen and left-handed reliever Ron Mahay.
Despite acquiring Ryan Garko and Freddy Sanchez within the past week, the Giants are open to adding another hitter and still have some level of interest in Teahen, the source said."
Nothing we didn’t know I guess.
Basically if Pittsburgh, Tampa, or Boston trade for Teahen...
I will automatically assume that we have been under appreciating Teahen. Though I imagine Teahen is the type of player that is way more valuable on a good team than on a crappy team.
Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures
by averagegatsby on Jul 31, 2009 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
ESPN reported this morning...
….that Bannister was possibly going to the Yankees, but the trade broke down when the Yankees requested that KC pay the rest of his salary for the year.
Don’t look at me like that. I’m serious. New York wanted Kansas City to pay for him for the rest of this year. That’s so insane that there aren’t words to describe it.
that had been reported here too.
And if I were with the Yankees I would abuse us too, obviously GMDM has made bad moves and I assume he isn’t done making bad moves.
Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures
by averagegatsby on Jul 31, 2009 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions
It's still just $650,000 or whatever
if that’s what it takes to get a good prospect, that isn’t jack. Moore blows more cash than that every month or two on some crappy reliever or utiliityman.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
My first inclination was to be pissed at the Yankees for that, too
but then, I tried looking at it from NY’s point of view. The big markets have made substantially larger revenue sharing concessions to the small markets over the years, and I think they are sorta OK with that IF, AND ONLY IF, the small market teams use that money to improve their team.
I think NY probably thinks this is NOT what David Glass has used most of his for (although he seems to have changed recently, there is still the matter of the prior years before that when he basically pocketed the revenue sharing money as profit and didn’t even bother spending much on the draft)
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
you think they're pissed enough about it to kill the banny trade over 650k though?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 31, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
New Banny info - MLBTR
FRIDAY, 9:22am: Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel says the Royals rejected overtures from the Marlins on Bannister. He wonders whether the next best thing for Florida might be to bring Carl Pavano back. We’ve heard surprisingly little about Pavano lately. He projects to fall short of Type B status, so there’s no point in the Indians keeping him.
I'm wondering what the package from the Marlins was....
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
I'm pretty sure all the GMs are lining up to "help out" the Royals
anyone else terrified of the Marlins?
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d_f, what would you consider being a reasonable package for Bannister?
from the Marlins and the Yankess?
by The #1 Bockel on Jul 31, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
melky Cabrera.
Straight up.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
It's tough for me when it comes to valuing prospects against major league players
so I don’t know
I’m flattered that you care what I think… seriously… I’ll have to do a bit of thinking on that.
Banny looks again like he might be a #3 starter (he’s pitching better than that now, of course, but it’s just over half a season)…
I’m more terrified of the Marlins because 1) they’ve screwed the Royals before, and 2) even though they don’t have a rep as a number-crunching organization, the Marlins certainly value players like one and understand that it’s better to have a replacement-level guy at $400,000 than at $3M
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
i'm like you
i have no concept of value, but from the royals perspective it doesn’t seem like the deal would make sense unless you’re getting more than one player back OR they have a similar player that fills a need at a different position, like CF or SS (sorry Yuni).
i mean, take the yankees-i’m thinking that melky would be nowhere near what we would need back, but if there was a CF or SS that was cheap and good, would that be enough? that plus an A-ball prospect? I don’t know…I do like Banny, but not sure that we’re not overvaluing him a bit.
Kansas City Royals - rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic since 1994.
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jul 31, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
okay some rough thoughts: Yankees
I think Austin Jackson might be fair — he’s one of their top prospects, but he’s not a top 10 or even 20 overall. He might be one of the top 25 position players, but that’s fair if you think Banny’s a league average starter over the next couple-3 years (andhe’s in arb, so he’s cheap).
Melky’s better than people think, but by himself probably isn’t quite enough for Banny, given that he’s already in arb.
I’m going of Sickels’ lists.. .I can’t find BA’s top 100 hitters/pitchers lists. Lil’ help?
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Where does BA separate in to top 100 hitters and top 100 pitchers?
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe Kyle Skipworth from the Marlins?
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
A little terrified but without looking at their roster, I assume...
we’ve already taken their biggest OBP sinkholes off their hands…although I guess Miggy Olive-Oil was a FA.
Using a computer outside of my mother's basement since 1988.
by Royal Revival on Jul 31, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
If I was another GM and I saw the Yuni trade...
I’d have DM on speed dial and be calling him every day with a new “idea.”
Using a computer outside of my mother's basement since 1988.
Sportscenter just now:
Kurkjien(sp? oh i dont care) said, Yankees called royals said “we’re interested in Banny and Bloomquist.” GMDM “Who are you gunna give us?” Yanks – " No one."
"Does this furniture polish have alcohol in it?" ... "mmm, tastes like i might die."
what a bunch of assholes
Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures
by averagegatsby on Jul 31, 2009 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Hate Yankees so much !!!!!!!!!
soon to change name to, "The Not So Curious Case of Benjamin Bratt"
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Jul 31, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Were the Yankees
mooning in the direction of Kansas City when they said that?
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
New update on Banni
10:16am: Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports say the Brewers made an offer for Bannister but the Royals chose not to counter it. The Royals would have to be bowled over to move the 28 year-old righty.
good
Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures
by averagegatsby on Jul 31, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
well, that's encouraging...
unless he was “bowled over” when he dealt for Yuni too…
they have bowling alleys in Milwaukee, don't they?
maybe if they threw in a 6-pack of Pabst and a brat…
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
i think yuni
is better then TPJ
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
Maybe GMDM learned a little from the Esky Trade?
"Does this furniture polish have alcohol in it?" ... "mmm, tastes like i might die."
I like Bany
but let’s remember that he was flashing the saber skills after his lucky 2007, followed by him being one of hte worst startes in baseball in 2008. This season is just one season. He’ll be 29 next season. Remember that Banny being a #3 starter is a realistic possibility, it’s also his upside — and he’s likely as good (and thus as valuable) now as he’ll ever be.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
when do pitchers hit their prime?
is it 30?
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
I suppose
I’d guess the same age nonpitchers do — 25-29
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
"on average" of course
everyone’s different. Nonpitcher Honus Wagner hit his prime starting at 31… of course, that may have been because the team was too dumb to play him at SS or something. That or steroids.
He was just a George Brett-level of awesome until 31, then he turned into Bonds/Mantle/or, um, Honus Wagner. Pretty much had 4 Brett-in-1980 seaons in a row (relative to his time and positoin).
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, I wish I knew more about him
other than the New Baseball Historical stuff (which is great0
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
KEEP BANNY GMDMD
KEEP HIM!!!!!!!!!!
No Banny for you!!!
soon to change name to, "The Not So Curious Case of Benjamin Bratt"
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Jul 31, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
one too many D's right there oops
..or maybe not. General Manager Dayton Moore _ _ _ _ _ _ (rhymes with the sound you here when a vinegar truck and a water truck crash together)
soon to change name to, "The Not So Curious Case of Benjamin Bratt"
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Jul 31, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
What about if we called him GDGMDM? Of course, then I’d have to go to confession for taking the Lord’s name in vain….
by chiefstatnut on Jul 31, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions
poll:
When does everyone here think this team can contend? 2010? 2011?
Using a computer outside of my mother's basement since 1988.
In our division. I honestly think we could compete next year.
I like the blue kool aid:)
I had put 2011 as my target point.
After watching this years team and realizing how far away we are I’m thinking 2012-2013 because our prospects are so far away and I’m sure they won’t be able to come in and dominate right away. I’m not saying we won’t be average over the next couple of years but I don’t consider a .500 team to be contending.
by The #1 Bockel on Jul 31, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
I think a .500 team
would be a contending team next year…look at the Twins and White Sox this year. They are both contending. I don’t, at this point, see a huge change in the division. Cleveland is probably going to be dreadful next year, the White Sox are getting a year older.
I actually think that with a little luck, continued improvement from our young players, and improvement in the bullpen that we can be close to a .500 team. I do think we need to fire Trey, though.
Kansas City Royals - rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic since 1994.
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jul 31, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Needs more than a little luck
Greinke can’t repeat next season. Meche will bounce back for his injury, but I’m guessing 2008 was his peak (not too brave there). Hochevar, Butler, and Gordon could all improve considerably, but unless you think two of them are going to be 5 WAR players next season, .500 is a stretch.
Bullpens are fairly easy to improve, but keep in mind that the Royals are pretty much stuck with Farnsworth and Cruz next season due to their contracts and performance.
.500 would be thrilling next season. But seriously, it would take Greinke at 6, Hochevar, Gordon, and Butler getting at least 12-14 between them for it to be even possible… and that’s assuming that DDJ and Teahen stick around and are average starter the whole season , which means the Royal saren’t getting good value for them at this or next year’s deadline.
But that’s off the top of my head.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe I'm confused about something here...
but isn’t the concept of WAR that if all the players in a lineup have 0 WAR, that team will go .500? Isn’t the 100% average team .500? Now that I’m writing it out, I guess I’m describing a new stat “Wins Above Average” vs “Wins Above Replacement”. I guess my question is, what’s the record of a team with all 0 WAR players?
I believe it would be around
45 wins. Replacement is what you could scrounge around and get for free, as opposed to average.
Kansas City Royals - rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic since 1994.
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jul 31, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
so...
if all your guys are 1-3 WAR guys (average of 2), you’re a 95 win team? Is 1-3 WAR that difficult to acquire? Considering Zack’s going to be around 5-6, we can afford a lot of dead wood.
from what I've seen
averaging 2 WAR would be pretty difficult, pretty much because that includes relievers and bench players that, even if good, aren’t going to accumulate that much in value.
Kansas City Royals - rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic since 1994.
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jul 31, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Royals players by WAR
Zack Greinke 6.3
Brian Bannister 2
David DeJesus 1.9
Gil Meche 1.8
Joakim Soria 1.3
Alberto Callaspo 1.3
Mark Teahen 1.2
Coco Crisp 1.2
Billy Butler 1.2
Miguel Olivo 1.1
Luke Hochevar 1
Sidney Ponson 0.7
John Buck 0.5
Kyle Farnsworth 0.4
Alex Gordon 0.4
Robinson Tejeda 0.3
Willie Bloomquist 0.3
Brayan Pena 0.3
Mitch Maier 0.2
Kyle Davies 0.1
John Bale 0
Ron Mahay 0
Horacio Ramirez 0
Bruce Chen 0
Roman Colon 0
Doug Waechter -0.1
Jamey Wright -0.2
Juan Cruz -0.2
Luis Hernandez -0.3
Mike Jacobs -0.3
Tug Hulett -0.4
Tony Pena -0.8
Mike Aviles -1
Jose Guillen -1.7
Total 18.5
Yuni's at -1.6 for the season as well...
bringing our SS total to -5.8. Wow.
technically he didnt do that for us
so adding the numbers together isn’t quite fair
he still isn’t good tho
that's why I didn't put him in the total,
but the degree of suckitude is the same.
he's been 0.8 for the Royals
if you look on the “teams” page, click on the Royals, then go to values, you can get player values split to what they just gave to the team
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
yes, that's what I meant
truly impressive to make that sort of mark in such a short period of time.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
about 49 wins
assuming the leagues are equal (they aren’t), a replacement level team is a .300 team.. which is about 48.6 wins
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
True, but
I think Greinke could be nearly as good next year. He’s something special.
It’s going to take some good years, no doubt. The things that I think we can control/fix are the baserunning, defense (to some extent, mainly by fixing CF and C) and bullpen, both usage and composition.
I still think the team is pretty far away from being a “force”…we just don’t have enough offensive weapons.
Kansas City Royals - rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic since 1994.
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jul 31, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Am I the only one that doesn't care about going .500?
I know that means we will probably be contending in our division but I’m almost scared to go .500 with DM because I’m guessing he will trade away prospects for a one year run. I would rather try and build for 2012 and beyond hoping that we can sustain a team that will contend year after year with players from our system.
by The #1 Bockel on Jul 31, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't think I"m putting down Greinke
when I say that it’s just really, really unlikely that he’s going to repeat next season. I can’t seem him putting up less that 9 WAR this season, and 10 is pretty likely. 11 is a possibiity. We’re talking about hte best season by a pitcher since Pedro in 1999, and possibly better. Betting on a repeat is just crazy. Even Bonds and A-Rod regress to the mean.
Greinke mioght better than CC or Halladay in their primes, or Lincecum. When I averaged the projection systems this spring, those guys were the best pitchers in baseball… and none projected as over 6.2 WAR. No, they hadn’t had a season like Greinke’s having now, but they did have previous seasons better than Zack’s…
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
think I meant Pedro in 2000, sorry
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought about this this morning, but how bad were the Expos during Pedro's best seasons with them?
I was curious to see if we’re giving Zack more or less support than those teams did for Pedro back then…curious about run support, win-loss record, etc to see just how big of a laughingstock we are right now, pissing away the best arm in baseball.
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by Royal Revival on Jul 31, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
It would take some work
but could be done… you’d have to do a lot of adjustment for run environemnt
Did the Expos have Larry Walker back then?
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
taking an unscientific approach:
They were a decent team back in ‘97 when Pedro had his 1.90 ERA. Vlad was there. Pedro went 17-8 and the team averaged 3.67 runs per game for him. David Segui had an OPS+ of 131 that season and the rest of the offense was pretty solid (just eyeballing OPS+). They had a scrappy SS who didn’t carry his weight (someone named Grudz…something). They were 78-84 and finished 4th.
He was traded to the Sox after the season for Carl Pavano and Tony Armas. So…that went well for le Expos.
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by Royal Revival on Jul 31, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
This year if we wouldnt have lost Gordon/Aviles
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
... the Royals would have a shot at 75 again
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
lol.... then we'd break even with Detroit/Minnesota/Chicago
and their win levels would be around ours. This could be the worst division in the AL.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
it is
Toronto would have won this divisoni the past 2-3 years
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
What about all of baseball?
Are we worse that any NL divisions?
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or should I say, are any better than us?
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
I dunno... that's tougher
I don’ know that any NL divisions are clearly better than the Al Central.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
lol.
AL rocks. Try talking to one of my inlaws about that. They think the NL central is king of baseball. And they are all really stubborn so it’s a long day and I just retire knowing my league is better.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
It depends on what they keep today
I really think Banny, if not for a great hitter, should stay to at least anchor one area of the game the Rotation
If the Royals get fleeced, it’s gonna be awhile, if not, maybe next year
I am leaning towards 2012 though.
soon to change name to, "The Not So Curious Case of Benjamin Bratt"
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Jul 31, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
hitting prospects are much more valuable that pitching prospects
they just pan out more frequently
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
hhhhmmmmmmmmmm...
I see.
soon to change name to, "The Not So Curious Case of Benjamin Bratt"
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Jul 31, 2009 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
What year do Glass and his son pass away?
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
never
where i'm "day-to-day" but i won't play again happens!
by blue bandwagon on Jul 31, 2009 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions
So it sounds like Washburn has been traded to Detroit
the teams that missed out on him (Yankees) could stretch farther now for Bannister.
How could the Yankees possibly stretch farther?
Blow raspberries over the phone?
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
if we're not going to contend until say 2012, why aren't we advocating for the Pirates "Blow it Up" aprroach?
are we just resigned to the fact that DM is clueless/delusional that we can compete next year?
Using a computer outside of my mother's basement since 1988.
What part of "blow it up" don't you get? Anyone and everyone...Zack's a waste on a team that's going to be loser for another 2-3 years...
Using a computer outside of my mother's basement since 1988.
by Royal Revival on Jul 31, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Sorry, didn't realize how confrontational that sounded...but, yes, why not the supposed "untouchables?"
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by Royal Revival on Jul 31, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
so you don't think...
Zack, Billy, Gordon, or Soria are part of a winning team in KC?
I think they will be winners.
Next year! :)
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
You can't get too attached to players
Look what Beane has done….sure, they’ve sucked a bag of dongs the last two years, but he’s positioned the A’s to make another sustained run. They’ve got the best young pitching staff in the game. If Beane can trade Tejada, Mulder, Giambi, Swisher, Hudson, Street, etc……then surely it would make sense for GMDM to look at what he could get for a relatively unproven and possibly unstable guy like Greinke, and a possibly fragile closer like Soria. I freaking love both of those guys, but a forward thinking GM wouldn’t think twice about parting with them if the RIGHT offer came along.
by Nighthawk at the Diner on Jul 31, 2009 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Clearly, his shit don't work in the WS.....
But I’d think that any rational analysis would lead you to believe that their winning percentage, pennants, and play off appearances over the last 10 years are something the Royals should be looking at? How many WINNING SEASONS have our beloved Royals had by hanging on to our “stars?”
by Nighthawk at the Diner on Jul 31, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought Street played for the Rox?
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
yeah, I read his comment wrong. :)
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
Sure....
….if they resign once their contracts are up. What do you think the odds of that are?
They could be a part of a winning team in KC in 2012, or they could be used to accelerate a winning team in KC in 2010/2011
I don’t want to see my favorite players go but if we’re three years away from winning and we’ve got lights out players today going to waste and a million holes to fill, I say nobody should be untouchable.
But realistically, no “buyers” at the deadline are gunning for guys like Gordon who haven’t reached their upside potential…so we probably wouldn’t get enough to deal someone like him, he’s worth more letting him develop while we suck…
I don’t want to see any of them go, but look how much Zack’s talents have been wasted on this team…10-11 in his starts? Really? His performance this year has literally been historic.
All of this assumes 2012 is when we contend…if it’s 2010, then of course don’t deal them…“trust the process,” right?
Using a computer outside of my mother's basement since 1988.
by Royal Revival on Jul 31, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Completely OT...
I fear that my University may get shutdown in NCAA 10 for recruiting violations. 4 weeks left in the season I have 13 “5 Star” recruits, as well as 4 “4 Star” recruits. Of which 7 are the top recruit at their position, and i have a soft commit from the number 1 WR recruit.
This has to rival any recruiting class in the history of ever.
Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures
Notre Dame
Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures
by averagegatsby on Jul 31, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree... Im destined to love horrible teams
Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures
by averagegatsby on Jul 31, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
what?
Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures
by averagegatsby on Jul 31, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Responding to Royals Review's "USC?"
Sorry I’m sensitive.
yes and...
Football integrity is going out the…..it’s gone, yep that’s gone too.
soon to change name to, "The Not So Curious Case of Benjamin Bratt"
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Jul 31, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm hoping for a Maier, Anderson, Freel outfield tonight...
Speedy, white, and…horrible.
Using a computer outside of my mother's basement since 1988.
Any word on who's interested?
Using a computer outside of my mother's basement since 1988.
by Royal Revival on Jul 31, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
if they are willing to give nothing for Banny, imagine what they are offering for Bloomy
Desperately hoping for Desperate Measures
by averagegatsby on Jul 31, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Can't wait to see who totally robs us
its gonna be MAGICAL
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
If you see Royals trade with Red Sox, Mariners, or Marlins
scrolling across the ticker at the bottom of ESPN, I think it’s safe to assume the worst.
Unless I'm wrong...
My Twitter feed
you forgot 26 team names
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 31, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
seriously...I'm not sure why I'm sitting around in anticipation of something that, if it does happen, I probably won't be happy about.
Using a computer outside of my mother's basement since 1988.
by Royal Revival on Jul 31, 2009 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
should we start making stuff up?
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
i think bay had just landed in tampa
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 31, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
though...
one of the things I was going to write about yesterday, but didn’t…
part of the fun about being a hardcore fan is really getting into the minor moves your team makes, and following the process (no joke intended)… I don’t have to have the royals be 100% awesome all the time, but it’s getting really boring when literally EVERY move, large or small, sucks
we could list all the bad trades that "could" happen
and then celebrate when they don’t
"The life of a (Royals) fan must be lived forward but can only be understood backward" -- Kierkegaard (more or less)
what?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Twins apparently close to acquiring Orlando Cabrera.
Finally GMDM can go after N. Punto. Thank goodness.
I'm beginning to think Moore's version of "The Process" involves waiting for the rapture.
Using a computer outside of my mother's basement since 1988.
The Rapture = Jeff Francoeur finally hitting the F.A. market
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually the 4 riders of the OBP apocolypse. Gritty white dudes unite!
Scott Posednik
Brett Gardner
Ryan Theriot
Adam Kennedy
and the Jesus, himself, of gritty white dudes, the GMDM holy grail, David Eckstein. If only he wasn’t so Jewey.
ironically
Garnder and Kennedy are actually good this season
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
RR, I'm sorry to say you are prolly going to be disappointed again this year
Moore clearly is still in the mode of trying to win as many games as possible this year, and clearly sees the team as a contender in 2010. He has never really waivered from the belief that he can win now and win in the future, as opposed to the more normal small market approach of aiming to win in a definable “window” of time in the future. What else explains his continued reluctance to “blow it up” and arm the organization with a boatload of prospects who will all mature at the same time?
Look for this new stance from the organization once the year is over:
1) Cleveland will fade back to 5th, especially if they trade Martinez today, thus allowing Royals to finish 4th for the 2nd year in a row. With a little luck, the Royals will manage to finish closer to the division than they did last year.
2) Moore will then be able to point out that the team has continually improved under his reign, going from 5th to 4th, then from a distant 4th to a closer 4th.
3) TRUST THE PROCESS!
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
bring back gload!
bring back gathright! if we are going to suck, i at least want to be entertained.
where i'm "day-to-day" but i won't play again happens!
Hadn't you heard?
We already brought back a version of Gathright – Josh Anderson, aka Josh Gathwhite
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
By the way
I am a BIG believer in the Cleveland approach, which is more like the aiming for a “window” of opportunity.
I’d much rather suffer thru some last place finishes, combined with the pain of losing favorite players when a “blow up” is necessary, if the payoff is a division title every now and then. This is a completely WORKABLE model, IF you have a smart GM and flexible ownership. Too bad we have neither.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
Cf. Pittsburgh
without the smart owner
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
OT
So, I just moved to Des Moines last weekend and was treated to a Royals game on FSN as I was moving in. “Hurray”, thought I, “the rumors about the Royals not being on TV in Iowa must not be true!” Alas, it appears that my hasty joy was unwarranted. Apparently, Royals appearances on FSN here are rare.
There the Royals go again. They get my hopes up for a fleeting moment and then crush them just as quickly.
by Trey Hillman's Chin on Jul 31, 2009 1:45 PM EDT reply actions
we don't have the resources to wage a battle on two fronts at the same time
Grass Creek first, then we push to the east.
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
The Royals are on FSN Midwest when the Cardinals do not have a game.
In some areas, ie Springfield, Joplin, and Columbia Missouri, they show the Royals games on an alternate channel when the Cardinals are on FSN. On mediacom in Springfield, they are on some random local access channel. Maybe they are on one of those channels in your area.
Hmmn...
I will have to see. I have been browsing around the other channels looking for the Royals on digital cable, but I haven’t found anything yet. We have Mediacom here. If they do that in Springfield, I’m hoping they’d do it here.
On the plus side, I can get two different Royals affiliates on the radio (one here and one from Omaha). I can also find at least one Cubs affiliate. Surprisingly, I haven’t even been able to find even either a Cardinals or a Twins radio broadcast.
by Trey Hillman's Chin on Jul 31, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Columbia is also Mediacom and they do the same thing.
They are on some random local channel in Columbia too.
I just checked and you are out of luck.
Only games on in Iowa are when the Cards aren’t on. At least if you know the schedule, you can plan to watch the games you can watch.
Thanks
That is very very helpful. That is certainly a lot more games than I was expecting. They must not show up in the Mediacom programming guide because none of those upcoming games are listed.
by Trey Hillman's Chin on Jul 31, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
IOWA
is mostly cubs territory because of the minor league affiliate, and unfortunately i cant recieve cardinals coverage here in KC, its dominated(laughs histerically) by royals coverage. BUT!!! when i moved here i said i would root for the Royals as well since you there is that NL AL divide…
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
You live in a Cubs AAA town.
Iowa is unofficial Cubs territory except for small pockets of resistance.
Yeah...
I haven’t lived here a week yet, and I managed to get four free tickets to an upcoming I-Cubs game.
by Trey Hillman's Chin on Jul 31, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
This season has just been a total downer
Bad FA pickups, Top prospects injured or underperforming, Royals injuries and the Betancourt trade…GMDM has put this team back another 5 years.
At least BamBam is showing signs
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
Watching MLB
They were talking about Matt Holiday and the trade to the Cards. Reynolds mentioned that Holiday was from Oklahoma and said that Oklahoma was “Cardinal Country.” WTF?
Steve Balboni is Legen...Wait For It...Dary
true
statement, have alot of family down there and see more Cards gear down there then anything else
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
That sucks
I live near Dallas and thought bc the Rangers AAA team is in OKC that they might have a presence as well as a Royals one as well. Just kind of caught me off guard
Steve Balboni is Legen...Wait For It...Dary
Could the MLB-N blow St. Louis any more?
The thinkfactory chat room is 1,000,000x better.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 1:49 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
they dont get enough coverage...
Pujols takes out "I" in BIG and "A" in MAC, previously considered to be an unyielding, consonant threat
4th place is ours!
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
So you're saying there's a chance...
for the Royals to lock up 4th place again!!! FUCK YEAH!
Using a computer outside of my mother's basement since 1988.
by Royal Revival on Jul 31, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Are we not looking to move dejesus?
And if not, why? He has some value I think.
Yes, I'm still alive. Sorry to disappoint you.
by royaldaddy on Jul 31, 2009 2:07 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
and have him miss the 4th place parade?
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
he wants to be old school
and play his entire career for one team.
He should just waive his right to free agency. That would be even more old school.
He Has An
Agent?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jul 31, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Keep landing on this thought
He’s a fourth OF on a good team. The Royals don’t have a lot to offer and whatever they got back wouldn’t likely be close to ML ready, unless they traded Soria or maybe Banny.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
i disagree
He’s a fourth OF on a good team.
he’s been one of the better LFs in baseball this year, when you factor in defense
yea, if he’s your best player, you’re in trouble… but… he’s not a 4th OF
I agree he's not a 4th of, but
He’s nothing special. He’s average in every sense. I was just hoping some gm would overvalue him just not ours.
Yes, I'm still alive. Sorry to disappoint you.
by royaldaddy on Jul 31, 2009 2:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
"average" in the sense of being almost a win above average in 2007 and 2008 and probably this season?
in that sense?
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
wrong wrong wrong
I know why people think this… but think of it this way… there are 90 starting OF spots in the majors. DDJ has been one of the top ~30 OFs in baseball the 2007-2009, and in 2006 was one of the top 20. What makes him a 4th OF? That he doesn’t hit homeruns? That he can actually field his position, unlike Jason Bay, Adam Dunn, 2009 JOhnny Damon, etc?
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree to a point.
He’s not part of the problem and he’s definitely a starting MLB OF. I’m just not sure if it’s worth having guys like him and teahen if you have no one to compliment them. We’re just seriously lacking star position players and having a bunch of 2nd bananas doesn’t do you any good.
I agree
the Royals need to try to trade him and everyone else on the team over 27 for value. I just disagree with the idea that he wouldn’t start on a good team.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm slowly coming around to this way of thinking
I don’t want to blow the team up, but it seems pointless to have positions taken up be average old guys (Freel) when younger guys would do just as well and benefit more from playing. Let’s see what we have, and not wait until September to find out.
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
yea, but
part of the problem is that, for all of dayton’s supposed great drafting, it’s all very young
we have NOTHING at AAA (other than Kila and guys like Costa/Lubes who are no better than MM)
we have very little at AA that’s really ready for a promotion
on a side note
Lubanski played last night for the Omaha Royals. First game back off the DL
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
I'm guessing GMDM sees it this way-
Any trade pulled off with big league starters [DDJ, Teahen, Bloomie] needs to return AA or AAA players who can be up next summer or it’s a wasted deal.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
"below average" is generous to Freel
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
He's only a 4th OF
because damnit, he smiles too much.
Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!
More like
There are 90 OF in MLB. 30 of those are RF’s so aren’t part of the pool of comparison. His offense makes it tough to justify playing him in LF, especially when LF is position that you normally stick defensive stiffs in [see Bonds, Barry].
It appears that he peaked a batter last year [29 years old] and if you believe the defensive stats he is inconsistent in the field. He’s a good player he’s just not the type of guy that you’re gonna get a decent return for. On the plus side, he’s cheap and has the kind of body that makes you think he can sustain what he’s got for a few more years.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
a run saved = a run earned
DDJ has been an above average player every full season he’s played since he’s been up.
He’s outplayed Adam Dunn this season. Is Adam DUnn a 4th OF?
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't see the comparison
since a Dunn / DDJ swap isn’t in the cards and the Washington Nationals are not a good team.
I was trying to drive home the point that while it might be nice to trade DDJ there might not be much demand with teams likely to be buying.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
the issue is whether DDJ is a 4th OF
he isn’t.
He should be moved.
Although it’s true that teams may not vlaue hhim properly.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
No
the issue is whether DDJ would be a fourth OF on a likely contender. The answer is probably yes. For the current universe of likely trading partners, Teahen is much more likely to see significant playing time than DDJ, despite the fact that most of us see Teahen as a bench player and DDJ as a starter.
I made no definitive statement of DDJs value. That was inferred by others.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
the issue is whether DDJ would be a fourth OF on a likely contender. The answer is probably yes.
I’m with d_f on this, i just don’t think thats true.
A simple argument. An average or better team is probably a contender right now (maybe more than that). DDJ is above average in LF. DDJ would start for many (not all) contenders.
Why don't we name some contending teams?
Yankees: DDJ better than Damon, Melky, probably Gardner (who’s hurt)
Boston: Probably not, although he’s been about as good as Jason Bay
Tampa Bay — no
Detroit: Better than any OF they have other than Granderson
Chicago: could obvoiusly play CF there, maybe be as good as Quentin given Q’s defense and regression to the mean
Minnesota: currently better than Gomez, YOung, probably as good as Span, better than Kubel
Angels: probably not
Texas: He’s probably as good as Byrd or Murphy,
Dodgers: No
Giants: As good as Winn, better than Lewis, as good or better than Rowand
Cubs: Probably not, although he might be as good or better than Soriano at this point
St. Louis: probably not… although I think he’s a sgood or better than Ankiel in CF
Milwaukee: no
Philadelphia: no
Atlanta (?): He’s better than Church or Garrett Anderson
Florida(?): DDJ would be the best player on that team
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Answer:
He could be the best OF on a contending team, he could be a 4th on a contending team…
it simply depends on how the rest of the roster is constructed.
We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan
by Royal Kingdom on Jul 31, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Florida(?): DDJ would be the best player on that team
You mean outfielder, right?
Because, um, I know Hanley isn’t a world-beater on defense, but…
yikes!
yeah, I mean OF. D’oh
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm ready for the Alex Gordon shocker
we upgrade at third by shipping Gordon to the Mariners for Beltre, the Mariners send a minor league pitcher to the Nats, who send us Joe Beimel and Mike Mcdougal to shore up the pen for our stretch run.
Harold Reynolds just talked about Marco Scutaro and Willie Bloomquist as if they were similar players
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Scutaro vs. Bloomquist
shows just how much better J.P. is than Dayton Moore
and also why some people can’t see it
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
RR! he's one of our best players!
lol
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
how is it that the Twins can get a reasonable SS for just an A prospect?
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
Because O-Cab is only there for the rest of the season
has been absolutely horrible on both sides of the ball
and the A prospect, while limited in stats, was a 2nd round pick with tons of “upside potential”
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
are you saying that they manage their team the right way?
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
Hey the Dodgers got
Vinny Rottino….
well, that’s all I’ve got….
Willits and Quinlan are ours!
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions
well, he does have serious OBP issues and questions about his glove...
bye-bye, Alex!
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
You guys should really check the BBTF dealine thread
love that Dayton Moore is generally the “baseball bad GM” now
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"Would Tony Gwynn eat a telephone if it were dipped in gravy?"
77% say yes
Hillman's facial hair is inconsistent. I am anything but
by McClure 'stache on Jul 31, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
vic to bosox?
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
that's what I like to hear:
1:47pm: ESPN’s Jayson Stark says the price for Bannister is similar to that of Jarrod Washburn – “big league-ready starter, pitching prospect with upside.” He says the Yanks maintain mild interest.
As Long As
We have Chen and Ponson, Banny is expendable, no?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jul 31, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
they should definitely sell simply for a near=ready position player starter
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Either Dayton feels pretty strongly about his offense
or he’s scared of making it worse
Unless I'm wrong...
My Twitter feed
I dunno
I would say this has actually been quite an active trading season by comparison to years’ past
Cliff Lee
Matt Holliday
Victor Martinez
Ryan Garko
Jarrod Washburn
Orlando Cabrera
Pirates trading an entire infield and half a pitching staff
That’s quite a few deals in the last week or so
if garko gets a mention so do these
Jeff Francouer
Ryan Church
Nate McClouth
Nyjer Morgan
Lastings Milledge
Yunieski Betancourt!!
George Sherrill
and some others too im probably missing
Bloomquist. God? Or just an illusion? You be the judge.
Sickels and Dan Szymborski just said they would not trade Banny
by Soria's Unibrow on Jul 31, 2009 3:00 PM EDT reply actions
i'm stunned that Harold Reynolds doesn't like what the Pirates did
they had Aramis Ramirez 7 years ago! they could have kept all these guys from the last decade, had a $200 million dollar payroll and been winners
Kind of like how we should have that Damon, Beltran, Dye OF
by Soria's Unibrow on Jul 31, 2009 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
not as much this year as in other
but last year, almost completely
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
yea...
somehow his defensive numbers are getting better… maybe he’s made adjustments, worked harder, something
He's Been Watching
Hoagy.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jul 31, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
well, better this year
there’s a lot of “error bars” in defense. Performance always varies around true talent, as well
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah that "dream outfield" would have been a lot better a few years ago
I’m thinking like Dayton! Oh God!
by Soria's Unibrow on Jul 31, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
There is no one on this team that should be untouchable
by Soria's Unibrow on Jul 31, 2009 3:08 PM EDT reply actions
It would have to be a major haul...
I would hate to see him go, but he won’t be able to do anything with his career if he stays here, and he could bring several pieces to make this team less of a laughingstock.
by Soria's Unibrow on Jul 31, 2009 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
it would have to be texas
they are the only team with a stacked enough system to make it work.
you’d have to ask for smoak, holland, main, and kiker. Id do that.
I started doing a fanpost called "The Kansas City Royals have a time machine" and redo every draft since 2000
It is a completely pointless exercise, though… and it gave me a newfound respect for how much of a crapshoot the MLB draft really is.
by Soria's Unibrow on Jul 31, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh man, do not bring up Smoak
I wanted us to draft him so bad, I knew he was going to rake and he has done nothing but prove me right.
by Soria's Unibrow on Jul 31, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
i know
I was disappointed too, but then I trusted Dayton back then, so I got excited for Hosmer. Well, it feels like I was right.
ughhhhh. Wieters and Smoak. Thats basically Morneau/Mauer part two.
Who knows, Hosmer might end up the better player
But Smoak is really good RIGHT NOW. Who knows when Hosmer makes it up to the big club?
by Soria's Unibrow on Jul 31, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
exactly
I dont know why you would draft a HS player top 5 unless they are exceptionally elite.
If you are choosing between two comparable talents, don’t you take the one that is farther down the development path? It lowers the risk and you get a more immediate impact.
If Hosmer is about as good as Smoak then its a bad pick. We would be accepting more risk of failure than just taking the sure thing.