FanPost

Why Teahan Should Have Pulled the Ball: Lessons From Poker (Part 2)

[Part 1 of this series can be found here].

Average poker players will generally do well so long as they keep in mind the "expected value" (EV) of their plays.

EV is one of those poker terms that glazes the eyes, but I think it can be summed up in a simple example: assume you are playing No Limit Texas Hold em, and the river card gives you the absolute armor piercing nuts--there's no way you can lose, and the only question is how much to bet on the river to maximize value. Do you bet half the pot, 2/3 of the pot, or do you go "all in" and hope some schmuck will actually call? What is the EV of each of these moves? The easiest way to think about this is with the "all in" move. In order for that move to have EV over the long run, you will need somebody to call the bet once in a while, and thus make up for all the times that you went all in and everybody else folds. Otherwise, you are better off make a "value bet" of a smaller amount, with the hope that you will get called enough times (over time) to make up for the lost opportunity winning the big "all in" pot i.e., to make up for not going "all in".

This seems to be what sabermetrics is driving at: what is the EV of "swinging away" as opposed to "moving the runner over". On average, it would appear that "swinging away" is a better move than playing small ball in our Teahen scenario, to the tune of 15% or so. Never mind that Pudge is not likely to win any track meets any time soon, and will likely get gunned down by all but the most Girly of Girly arms out there: on average, the EV for swinging away is 15% better than conventional wisdom might indicate. Fair enough.

But let's go back to the poker table: what if you are decidely the worst poker player at the table? What if you have been the worst poker player at the table for about 15 years? More apt, what if you have lost 12 of the last 14 hands you played, some of which consisted of what you thought were "odds driven" all-in moves? Even more apt, what if you are flat ass broke from trying to play the "odds"? Finally, and most apt of all, what if instead of having the Stone Cold Nuts, you have third or fourth nuts, and you think you probably have the best hand? In other words, what if you are holding the poker equivelent of Billy Butler standing on second after a long fortnight of crappy play?

I'll tell you what you do in that situation: you make a value bet, you hope you have the best hand, you take the pot, you cash in your chips, you go home to Momma and peel her off a $100 bill for having granted you a Hall Pass, and you then live to fight another day.

In our poker situation, you certainly don't go all-in.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.