Zack Greinke is about half way through the 2009 MLB season and to date he has been worth 5.5 wins....

Zack Greinke is about half way through the 2009 MLB season and to date he has been worth 5.5 wins. He is roughly on pace to accumulate 11 wins. As a pitcher. In the last four years, no pitcher has broken past the eight win mark. Since 2002, the first year our win values start, the highest recorded mark is Randy Johnson's 9.9 wins in 2004.... Greinke's batted balls are not significantly different from past years, but his home run rate has unsustainably dipped to just 3.3%. All in all, Greinke is missing more bats this year, but he is also throwing fewer strikes overall. Somehow he has reduced both his walks and his home runs allowed to depress his FIP to 1.98, but going forward you would expect that to be a lot closer to his 3.56 from last season. Still, with half a season banked, Greinke has a serious shot at being FanGraphs' first 10 win pitcher.

Matthew Carruth, FanGraphs

almost 3 years ago Matt Klaassen 19 comments 2 recs |

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let's hope he can keep defying the HR/BB/K rates

by benfunke on Jul 8, 2009 12:29 PM EDT reply actions

STOP BEING SO NEGATIVE!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 8, 2009 12:35 PM EDT reply actions

man the royals have just been so unlucky this year with reliable guys underperforming

by Freneau on Jul 8, 2009 1:33 PM EDT reply actions

don't forget the previous regime leaving them nothing to work with

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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 8, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions

yea

dayton inherited an absolute disaster area

thankfully, he quickly snatched up teahen, ddj, greinke

by Freneau on Jul 8, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions

don't forget his daring move to insert MIke Aviles into the everyday lineup last season

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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 8, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Don't forget his bold step to grab Billy Butler and play him everyday at 1B

by Top Ramen on Jul 8, 2009 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Sad

that a team with an historically awesome starting pitcher can still manage to post the worst run differential in the entire American League.

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Jul 8, 2009 2:01 PM EDT reply actions

I blame John Buck

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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 8, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions

His catching or his pitch calling?

Both are worth 10 losses on their own.

by kcbottom9th on Jul 8, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions

when I was doing my work on this earlier in the season and was looking at other pitchers, I was thinking, “well, it’s still a long shot for him to replicate Pedro in ’99 or Clemens in ’97.” It’s seems more possible now, but’s still a bit of a fight.

My friends, when you are thinking “well, there’s a chance, but this season might not be quite as good as Pedro’s 1999,” you are seeing something awesome.

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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 8, 2009 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions

It's something to be greatful for

At the very least, every 5th day the Royals morph into a playoff team, essentially. He has actually pitched well enough to mask the horrendous deficiencies of the starting position players behind him, at least on most days.

Think about that – we have one of the worst teams in baseball, but 20% of the time, they are one of the best teams in baseball. Makes the team more interesting than watching a generic .400 team, who is basically a .400 team every day…

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Jul 8, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions