Defense Matters: The Case of Two Left-Fielders

by royalsreview on Jul 9, 2009 11:24 PM EDT in News Comment 55 comments

I think it was Rob Neyer who popularized the following way of making a point:

	Batting Runs	Fielding Runs	WAR
Player A	17.8	-7.8	1.8
Player B	-4.6	12.4	1.5

Both guys play left field in the American League.

Player A is Jason Bay, the beloved replacement for Manny Ramirez who supposedly brings an entirely different package to the Red Sox. A more well-rounded game, we heard. He also seems to be shown hitting a homer or a double off the Monster every time I happen to have ESPN on.

Player B is the increasingly maligned David DeJesus, the guy who doesn't hit enough, isn't enough of a fighter out there, and seems to get picked off every other game.

When you consider the likelihood that DeJesus will return to form at the plate -- he's hitting .293/.346/.463 in his last 133 plate appearances -- over the rest of the season, making up for a miserable start, it isn't hard to imagine that he emerges as one of the top left fielders in the AL for 2009 when it's all said and done. Not bad for a guy making $3.5 million and under team control for both 2010 and 2011.

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But DeJesus smiles too much

Not enough grit, fire or chutzpah.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jul 8, 2009 3:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bay is Canadian

its the maple syrup and canadian whiskey coursing through his veins.

Teahen isn’t really that canadian so he just has the spirit of hockey in his heart, basically worthless.

by wildthang on Jul 8, 2009 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yet,

Teahen is perceived to have more trade value.

Personally, I am in favor of keeping DDJ, as his poor season (thus far) with the bat most likely has undermined his trade value (fairly or not). We have 2 outfield spots to fill already – it may be better to keep the one historically good OF we have in the fold already.

As for getting thrown out stealing the last 2 days – those are on Trey, IMHO. There is AMPLE evidence that he is not a good basestealer, yet Hillman insists on either giving him the green light and/or trying a hit and run with Bloomquist.

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Jul 8, 2009 3:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

Teahen has more trade value because I am willing to bet few teams look at WAR or fielding runs. Teahen has nice batting average, which is the most important stat in baseball (although count DJ’s RBIzzzz!!!!)

I would like to hang onto DJ too because I think his perceived value on the trade market is diminished.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 8, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Teahen is younger though

not saying he’s more valuable than DDJ, but that does matter, as player’s DDJ’s age are usually declining, whereas Teahen is in his “prime”

in other words, over the next couple years, they may be of similar value, and Teahen may still seem some growth with his bat.

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by devil_fingers on Jul 8, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Teahen was on Petro

and said that DeJesus was sent by the manager on both occasions. One was a hit and run where Bloomquist, the man who does all the little things right, didn’t swing.

by The #1 Bockel on Jul 8, 2009 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm old and learning new tricks takes repetition so remind me again

+2.0 WAR is representative of ‘average player’ do I have that right?

Christ, you don't need a quadrophonic Blaupunkt! What you need is a curveball! In the show, everyone can hit heat.

by BillyMojo on Jul 8, 2009 3:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yep, pretty much

over a full season

So DDJ is 3/4s there halfway through the season (although you can go “down” in WAR, too)

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by devil_fingers on Jul 8, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

speaking of which

i’d really like to see WAR alongside WAR/150 more often, to put some perspective on the number of games played (or lack thereof). otherwise it can tend to act like a counting stat (and we all know how wonderful those are).

by benfunke on Jul 8, 2009 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah that would make it less easy for me to forget what it really is

and for what it’s worth in my humble opinion the way I see it

DDJ will play out the year and be as good as he always is.

Christ, you don't need a quadrophonic Blaupunkt! What you need is a curveball! In the show, everyone can hit heat.

by BillyMojo on Jul 8, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the counting stat part is important, though

because that allows us to see WAR as a players value even when he doesn’t play (this assumes that he has a replacement-level replacement because they are easy to locate… ahem).

Again, to get WAR/150 just get your calculator or go into excell. Take the “replacement” line, then do WAR * (20/replacement) to get WAR/600 PA

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by devil_fingers on Jul 8, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that’s why i want to see both. maybe i should be taking my issues straight to the source:

FANGRAPHS!!!! (angry voice, shaking fist)

by benfunke on Jul 8, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ROBOT HOUSE!!!!!!!!!!!

ehehehehheh

soon to change name to, "The Not So Curious Case of Benjamin Bratt"

by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Jul 8, 2009 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Ooh! I know this... whatcha call it?... Lite Brite! "

by sterlingice on Jul 8, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd love to keep DDJ

In right field, with his defense, if his batting continues to come back DDJ is a 5+Win player over the course of the season.
Thats not just good, or decent or “not part of the problem”. Thats All-Star level. Thats Matt “Holy crap I love this thin mountain air” Holliday level.

I never have and never will understand why people want to trade DDJ

I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT

by RoyalPug on Jul 8, 2009 3:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

wow

I’m a big DDJ fan, but he’s never een, or will be a +5 player. FanGraphs has him a around 4 a few years back, and Rally consistenlty has him around 4, but he’s at an age where he’s can be expected to decline

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by devil_fingers on Jul 8, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well the diffrence this year is the switch to RF from CF

His defense, which is average in CF is stellar in RF.
If he combined his defense from this year with his offense from last year DDJ would be around a 4.5-5 Win player.

Obviously thats cherry picking a bit, but hes already shown major improvement with the bat over the last 150 ABs and his defense, has gone from passable to already +1.2 wins.

I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT

by RoyalPug on Jul 8, 2009 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and in either case...

Lets say for the sake of argument that David ends up a 3.5 win player.
How many 3.5 wins players will be on the market this winter?
How many players do we have in the system could produce 3.5 wins?
How many could do it as cheaply as DDJ, who at 3.5 wins would be worth around $14 Million, and who is earning like $3 million?

I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT

by RoyalPug on Jul 8, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

but you can't cherry pick like that

that’s like Dayton Moore talking about Mike Jacobs April as his “accustomed level or performance.”

I also assume you mean LF, as DDJ’s arm doesn’t seem strong enough to play as well over there.

(I’ll assume fangraphs generic replacement level at 20 runs/600 for ease of translation) Just doing some regression to the mean with current stats, both an in-season Marcels and ZiPs. has DDJ’s true talent as just above a league average hitter at this point (about what he projected at before the season, oddly enough), or about +2 runs/600. Very few people are +17 defenders — and defensive stats require a lot of regression to the mean because of the error bars. Let’s be generous say he’s +12/150 out there. I guess the positional adjustment is more liike -7/600 (I prefer -7.5/700 or 162, but no biggie).

so +2 batting +12 defense -7 position +20 replacement = 27 RAR, or about 2.7 WAR.

Which, now that I think about it, is exactly what he was at in 2007 and 2008 at FanGraphs.

Note that fangraphs doesn’t

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by devil_fingers on Jul 8, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the last line should haved been deleted

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by devil_fingers on Jul 8, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

which is still awesome at the price

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by devil_fingers on Jul 8, 2009 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

is DDJ's arm as weak as Jose's?

note that I would vomit at the sight of JoGui in LF

Christ, you don't need a quadrophonic Blaupunkt! What you need is a curveball! In the show, everyone can hit heat.

by BillyMojo on Jul 8, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

oops forgot the sarc font

Christ, you don't need a quadrophonic Blaupunkt! What you need is a curveball! In the show, everyone can hit heat.

by BillyMojo on Jul 8, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd like to know how the hell Jason Bay is so bad at LF in FENWAY?

Seriously? -7.8?!?!

by AxDxMx on Jul 8, 2009 4:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Half of his games are on the road

Mr Glass, this is a pro sports team, not a retail store - run it like one!

by loyal2sdad on Jul 8, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes...

But then what is he?

0 at Fenway, -15 on the road? That’s horrible!

by AxDxMx on Jul 8, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i wonder if it’s some problem adjusting to the monster/strange fielding conditions in LF at Fenway. but then again, he’s at -7.2 for his career

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1717&position=OF#fielding

by benfunke on Jul 8, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i bet there are major problem measuring defense in fenway

how many hits off the wall is interpreted as poor range? is this corrected for in any metric?

by ZeppelinDZ on Jul 8, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

moreover...

for WAR calculating purposes, the relative value of defense in Fenway LF is less. in all honesty, i bet Bay’s value is under-stated (same with manny in the past)

by ZeppelinDZ on Jul 8, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

here is some info on UZR

by its creator, although it’s sort of old an I don’t know if he’s changed stuff

However the adjustments are done, they are converted to runs and that is what is used in WAR, which goes through a runs-to-wins converter…

Yes, runs have different values in different parks… but if runs saved at Fenway have less value, so to runs created.

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by devil_fingers on Jul 8, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

excellent, that answer's that

and look at that difference for Fenway LF, the other 28 parks vary by 3% tops, Coor’s is 7% and Fenway is 15%

by ZeppelinDZ on Jul 8, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, I compute park factors, in the same way that regular offensive and pitching park factors are calculated, using up to 13 years of park data and using a regression formula which includes the physical characteristics and ambient conditions of a park.

It is most important for certain parks and locations within a park, like all of Coors, and left field at Fenway and Minute Maid. Also, some parks have much faster infields than others. For example, the ARI infield is lightening fast, due to both the altitude and the fact that it is hard and the grass is short, and some of the newer breeds of artificial turf (like Nexturf) are just as fast as grass. BTW, it is true that traditional artificial surfaces are faster than grass, but it is not true that there are more ground ball singles on turf than grass (they are about the same). Why is that you ask? More infield singles and bunt singles on grass! But I digress.

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by devil_fingers on Jul 8, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

even more

from an exchange with Neyer, although it’s about RF in Fenway…, not LF

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by devil_fingers on Jul 8, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Does Anyone Else

Find it odd that LF’s that play in Fenway sem to do it forever? Since 1939 there have only been Williams, Yaz, Rice, Greenwell, a brief Troy O’Leary era (4 yrs), ManRam and now Bay. That’s 7 names over 70 years.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jul 8, 2009 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

W.A.R

What does that mean? I have no idea what 1.8 v 1.5 means.

by CaptainDT on Jul 8, 2009 4:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Wins Above Replacement

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on Jul 8, 2009 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A statistic

that I will have to investigate, as I do not know who the generic ‘replacement player’ is. A intriguguing concept – “wins above replacement” – but absolutely meaningless without context.

by CaptainDT on Jul 8, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

here's an introduction I wrote

with reference to the Royals earlier this season

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by devil_fingers on Jul 8, 2009 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm really starting to see how useful it is to compare players against each other at specific positions

and it’s not so tough to understand, but it does require some thought to grasp it.

Christ, you don't need a quadrophonic Blaupunkt! What you need is a curveball! In the show, everyone can hit heat.

by BillyMojo on Jul 8, 2009 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and even better, across positions

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by devil_fingers on Jul 8, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's a bad sad to me

how far it outstrips the BP stuff at this point.

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on Jul 8, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But do their transaction analysts have M.A.'s from Loyola Chicago?

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by devil_fingers on Jul 8, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't have either but I understand d_f's explanation of WAR

(do have a BSEE from University of Alabama)

Christ, you don't need a quadrophonic Blaupunkt! What you need is a curveball! In the show, everyone can hit heat.

by BillyMojo on Jul 8, 2009 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You should have asked

WAR? What is it good for?

by AxDxMx on Jul 9, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and to think, I had a pretty length blog post

about how the Red Sox weren’t losing much in the Bay-Ramirez trade, because Manny’s defense had always been awful and Bay’s was historically good.

Looks like he’s declined fast, though.

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on Jul 8, 2009 4:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

see my comment above

hard to believe he has been such a bad defender all this time. maybe you’re (we’re) thinking of 2006 since that was kind of his breakout year (2005 & 2006)

by benfunke on Jul 8, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1717&position=OF#fielding

by benfunke on Jul 8, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, that's pretty much why

if Bay could’ve approximated his 05-06 worth in the field, he would’ve been the upgrade I had envisioned. Instead, he began to tank in the field in 2007.

"Do they have people that tall in Mexico?"

by NHZ on Jul 8, 2009 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He comes from a really awesome hometown though

So it’s OK.

by kcbottom9th on Jul 8, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's strange, but then again maybe not tall that strange

looks like his Range rating really dropped in the past 2 or 3 years, which i suppose could be age, as he’s now 31. his arm has held stable at barely below replacement and his errors stable at barely above replacement (actually if anything his arm rating improved).

by benfunke on Jul 8, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

below average, you mean?

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by devil_fingers on Jul 8, 2009 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

apparently I do

from Fangraphs glossary:
RngR – Range Runs Above Average

by benfunke on Jul 8, 2009 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sorry, I shouldn't be so pendantic

I just want to make sure we keep the average/replacement level distinction clear

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by devil_fingers on Jul 8, 2009 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's not 31

Not sure if Dejesus and Bay are equivalent players. However, I do thnk Dejesus is a good fielder compared to Bay’s struggles in LF. WIthout all the fuzzy defensive metrics (which i’m not a huge proponent of) I’d go as far as saying if Dejesus’ was playing like he did in 2008 HE"S DEFINITELY BETTER THAN BAY. He’s clutch (I know you love that word) with RISP. What was he batting 372 or something?

by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 9, 2009 7:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've often wondered if there shouldn't be a defensive shift used in Fenway

where the LF comes in and plays a really shallow LF, almost a deep, deep SS. LIke where 2nd Base plays on a shift for Jim Thome. You’d need a pretty strong arm to get a guy out from there though, and likely would only get the slowest runners. However, with the SS moved over to DP depth, less balls would get up the middle. Just a thought.

by AxDxMx on Jul 9, 2009 2:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs