Royals Links and a Kids Day at the K Final Tally

by Freneau on Aug 10, 2009 5:47 PM EDT in Kansas City Royals News

After a crazy four days on the road, I'm back at the lavish RR World Headquarters. I spent about an hour total following the Royals during that time. To be honest, it did me good, though now I'm a little bummed that there's not a game tonight. Trust the process.

I would like to thank everyone who donated to our Send a Kid to the K project. According to Lee Warren, we ended up sending 109 kids to the Sunday game against the A's. Really cool. Thanks to Adam with the Royals for helping us and for Lee for getting the ball rolling.

Here are your Monday afternoon Royals links:

Billy Butler is hitting like an emerging superstar, so should the Royals try to lock him up long term? | Mellinger's Blog on the Royals and Baseball

Royally Speaking: The positive experiment - Yuni edition

Royals on Radio etc.: I'm so ticked off

The Pipeline: Royals on the Farm 8/8

Broken Bat Single: Omaha Royals Report for 8-9-2009

Big Donkeys: Have you ever been to the doctor with a Royals-related ailment?

Nick Sloan's Official Web Site: The '09 Royals' Points Of Light

Royals Kingdom: Reasons to stay a Royals Fan: Looking Ahead to 2010

Game Recaps (8/9/09) - Mariners Minors

Baseball Prospectus | Events | Chat with Marc Normandin

A look at the Braves one-for-one trades - Talking Chop

Top AL Rookie Hitters | FanGraphs Baseball

Four days in North Korea. - By Sarah Wang - Slate Magazine

YouTube - Help I'm Alive by Metric

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Comments

Sending over 100 kids to the game is tremendous.

But is 109 really the final tally? Just not sure how we managed to come up with an odd number, if the Royals are matching each ticket we buy.

Extremis malis extrema Soria.

by 2X2L on Aug 10, 2009 5:53 PM EDT reply actions

hmm...

yea… I’m not sure

by Freneau on Aug 10, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Had to pay one of the kids to go?

by Gopherballs on Aug 10, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions

my guess is the group involved may have had something to do with the odd number

and if there was an extra kid who showed up, the royals may have just tossed in another ticket

by Freneau on Aug 10, 2009 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions

OK, works for me

I’m glad the whole thing got off the ground, and I hope the kids had fun.

Extremis malis extrema Soria.

by 2X2L on Aug 10, 2009 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Rios to White Sox

by Freneau on Aug 10, 2009 6:36 PM EDT reply actions

That

is a serious case of buyer’s remorse. In 2008 the Blue Jays sign him for 7 years at $70 million. In 2009 they hand him to the White Sox — for nothing. Wow.

Extremis malis extrema Soria.

by 2X2L on Aug 10, 2009 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions

If Rios can play a league average CF for most of the remaining contract

the Sox might break even.

by Gopherballs on Aug 10, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions

cf. my earlier comments

If he’s a 3.5 War player true talent now, it’s a market deal in 2007 dollars assuming a 0.5 win a year decline.

I’d take Kenny over Dayton any day of the week.

The Sox want to win now, why not go balls to the wall.

I guess the jays got out from a problematic contract for them, but they are probably “selling” low.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Aug 10, 2009 7:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

He might be closer 3.0 WAR true talent than 3.5

His bat might be the type that peaks early and declines more rapidly than usual – few walks, good but not great contact hitter, good but not great power – his comps skew toward Gary Maddox, Roberto Kelly, and Al Cowens, with a few hitters with greater longevity like Jermaine Dye and Moises Alou down the list.

Kenny also knows that his ballpark can hide some offensive decline. It is an interesting gamble by Kenny.

by Gopherballs on Aug 10, 2009 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions

i can see it working out for the next few years

but I agree that rios scares me long term

by Freneau on Aug 10, 2009 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah

As I posted earlier, my estimate is somewhere between 3 and 3.5. That half win is a bigger deal than one might think, esp. on a long-term contract.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Aug 10, 2009 8:53 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

what's his WAR at right now for 2009?

he’s hitting like jacobs

by marbotty on Aug 11, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions

WAR

2006 3.3
2007 4.6
2008 5.5
2009 1.1 (so far)

One of those things is not like the other. Offensively, his walk and strikeout rates are the same, he has been a little unlucky on balls in play but not significantly so, and his contact rates are about the same too, so there is no obvious signs of immediate decline. Defensively, he has been one of the better corner outfielders in previous years, but this year has been merely average. Given the nature of defense stats allows for wide swings in the short-term (and half a season is the short-term with defense stats), the defense is not much of a worry.

by Gopherballs on Aug 11, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions

i'd venture to say

that rios’s value going forward will almost certainly be tied up in his ability to play defensively. in other words, he’ll only be as valuable as his defense

by marbotty on Aug 11, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Butler contract extension

After this last offseason, a contract extension for a 1B is a bit of a conundrum. Historically, 1B is one of the highest paid positions, both on the free agent market and in arbitration, but at the same time, DH/1B provide the least value in terms of defense and positional adjustments. This last offseason, however, there seemed to be a market correction for 1B/DH-types (including the ones who still “play” the outfield like Dunn and Abreu). The problem here is that the adjustments to arbitration awards are going to lag behind the free agent market adjustment due to the arbitration process of using service-time based player comparisons. In other words, Butler’s comparison for his first year of arbitration are going to be what Howard/Fielder (on the high side) and LaRoche/Overbay (on the low side) got as third-year players, even though those players might not get anywhere near that much if based on what free agents are now getting (discounted the usual 40/60/80% for service time).

Butler’s age as well as his scouting and statistical pedigree suggest that he is a really safe bet going forward to be at least a league average player – basically, the season he is having this year. If a win is worth $4-$5 million, a league average player over his last three years of arbitration would be in the $3-4m/$5-6m/$7-8m range, which is also right in line with LaRoche’s arbitration years ($3m/$5m/$7m). A guarantee of $15 million over the last three years of arbitration would be a pretty safe baseline for the Royals. So giving Butler an incentive to sign of $1 or $2 million for 2010 (in which he would otherwise make $400K or so near the league minimum), you are looking at 4 year/$16-$17 million contract as a baseline deal in which the Royals should recoup their investment assuming Butler at least maintains his current state of play.

And of course, as the Rays have demonstrated with Evan Longoria and others, the best value comes from adding team options to the end of contracts. Lots and lots of team options.

by Gopherballs on Aug 10, 2009 6:44 PM EDT reply actions

I think Butler's an interesting case

I’m sure the royals will try to offer him a “lockup” contract, but I think he’s in too strong of a position to take something that’s really miserly.

by Freneau on Aug 10, 2009 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, but he's also looking at an uncertain economic environment

especially for 1B/DH types as well as a body type that does not age well (although his hitting skill set does). And I am not saying that 4 years/ $17 million gets anything done, just that he should be worth that at a minimum going forward even if he does not get any better. What he actually could get depends on how you value his potential versus his risk.

by Gopherballs on Aug 10, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Here's how it works

If Butler is signed long term, he will automatically bust just like Berroa.

If Butler is not signed, he will become a huge star on the level of Beltran and leave the Royals for big money.

by AxDxMx on Aug 10, 2009 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions

It certainly seems that way, doesn't it?

At least Zack is busting the trend so far.

by Gopherballs on Aug 10, 2009 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions

He's on a different path though

He’s on the phenom bust, quit baseball to mow lawns, comeback player of the year trajectory. He’s a star, but will relapse like Josh Hamilton while the Royals suck so bad leading to a demand for a trade. Bye bye Greinke.

by AxDxMx on Aug 11, 2009 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions

maybe

Nobody should have ever bought into Berroa to begin with — his minor league numbers were atrocious, so had the Royals looked at him with an objective eye, they might have been able to deduce that his rookie season was probably an outlier. At the very least, they should have adopted a wait and see approach.

I was concerned about Butler until this month — I’m not fully on board with his being the real deal. Maybe he won’t be a world beater, but we should be able for him to continue to log .850 OPSs in future seasons. My one concern is that said number might not even be average for a DH or 1B. Still, he’s probably going to be our best hitter for a while, so it’s not like we can afford to dump him.

by marbotty on Aug 11, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

850 OPS from 1B is above average for the position

Average MLB 1B
2007 276/357/463 821 OPS
2008 272/353/464 817 OPS
2009 275/362/482 844 OPS

Factoring in positional adjustment and defense (Butler projects up to minus 5 runs over a full season), if he posts around an 850 OPS, he would be a roughly league average player (~2.0 WAR) and worth about $8-$10 million annually.

by Gopherballs on Aug 11, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions

that is excellent news

by marbotty on Aug 11, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions

wait, that is not necessarily excellent news

as you just suggested he’d merely be average. there’s still room for optimism with him, though — he could very easily post a handful of .900 OPS’s, and there’s still a chance for continued defensive improvement

by marbotty on Aug 11, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

even w/ average defense,

A +20 hitting B in the AL is only about a 3 WAR player

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Aug 11, 2009 3:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Maybe it's just news

And I am not saying that Butler will only be average, just showing what an average player is worth and that Butler is relatively safe bet to be at least around average going forward. Thus, signing him to a long-term deal does not carry the same risks as, say, giving Kyle Davies one.

by Gopherballs on Aug 11, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions

watch what happens

When you show that Gordon will be worth more than that even if he only returns to last season’s offensive levels.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Aug 11, 2009 3:52 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I'll wait until after your "let's give Adrian Beltre $10 million per year" post

Besides, Gordon spent over half this season hitting under .200. And this one time I went to a game and he totally did not show any emotion after striking out or after he hit the game winning double so who wants that on your team.

by Gopherballs on Aug 11, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Dayton's sabermetricians are so far ahead of the game

they’ve established aging curves for destroying coolers after a strikeout.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Aug 11, 2009 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions

butler has no leverage

He’s not even as valuable as Yuniesky Betancourt, remember?

Part of relishes the thought of him sticking it to Dayton and co. in negotiations, given the amount of “faith” they’ve shown in him.

As for “superstar” let’s not go nuts.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Aug 10, 2009 7:21 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

on this offense, he is the superstar

he can’t have very good feelings towards Dayton after the disrespect GMDM has shown the Bus.
imagine what we would have been thinking and blogging if the earlier proposed trade had gone thru. Yikes!

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Aug 10, 2009 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions

and thank god we burned through some BB's service time for absolutely no reason

I’d hate for this to be his rookie year

by Freneau on Aug 10, 2009 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions

PROCESS!

where i'm "day-to-day" but i won't play again happens!

by blue bandwagon on Aug 10, 2009 7:05 PM EDT reply actions

found this looking around

the depths of GMspin

“Angel Berroa is a gifted baseball player, From what I’ve observed, he has an above-average arm, above-average accuracy, above-average power. He has good hands and good fielding skills.” – GMDM, 9/28/2006, who traded that gifted player for a misc. minor leaguer less than 2 years later.

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Aug 11, 2009 3:18 AM EDT reply actions

Um

Moore’s changes can be seen in the details as much as they can Meche’s signing and the roster turnover. Minor-league guys can’t wear facial hair. Their stirrups need to show at least 6 inches. Black, low-top cleats only. Shane Costa, who spent this season’s first month at Class AAA Omaha, says the coaching is better now than before.

that’s from the 5/29/07 Star… we seriously put up a minor league facial hair ban?

Graduate with a B.S. from the Dayton Moore School of Stats Analysis

by BHWick on Aug 11, 2009 3:22 AM EDT up reply actions

"facial hair" is a euphemism

For “taking the slider low and away.”

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Aug 11, 2009 5:42 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

CUT THOSE SIDEBURNS

by marbotty on Aug 11, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions

It's the Bravest Way

Seriously. The Braves didn’t allow jewelry or weird hair. They wanted everyone to look the same and be part of a team. You can institute that in the minor leagues (they are basically slaves right?), and I would bet he starts it in MLB very soon, if he hasn’t already.

by AxDxMx on Aug 11, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions