Much has been made about the post-Moneyball era where the small-market teams are in the continuous struggle to find the next market inefficiency to exploit.  Most of us are familiar with the Royals idea and the process in place: dramatically increase funding for draft-picks (ignoring slotting, drafting on talent only, not money) and international scouting and signings.  On the surface, this seems like a good idea, mostly because the Allard Baird regime (David and Dan Glass included) practically ignored these areas as useful as far as building the organization as a whole.  But in reality all that is going on is high stakes gambling.  Further, it is not innovative; it is how baseball works.

via www.missourinet.com

 

 

 

 

The first pick post-Allard Baird was Luke Hochevar, first overall.  While Dayton Moore did not "pick" Luke, Luke's selection is not out of place in the string of drafts and signings since 2006.  Luke was represented by Scott Boras, had been drafted previously and not signed, played independently.  His contract demands were high, but so was his pedigree (Roger Clemens Award for College Pitcher of the Year while at Tennessee).  He signed for $5.3 million.  Lincecum, Longoria, and others were in this draft, and the full fruits of this draft have not risen to the majors yet.  But this is not the point, though it helps to understand it because a large portion of that first round draft class will not make the majors.  Luke, though a disappointment in some quarters, is a qualified success.

via mlb.mlb.com

OR

via blogs.tampabay.com

 

The MLB draft is unique in pro sports, mostly because it allows HS and College players to be drafted, though not international players in other leagues.  It is also unique in that it is mostly a crapshoot.  The draft is the start of a player's trackable development.  A player's career, once drafted, could begin in short season rookie ball or AA, hell even in the majors in the rare case.  From that point, the player could struggle to adapt, could perform as predicted and improve until ready for the majors, etc.  However, none of this is really predictable or controllable.  It is rare that there is the CAN'T MISS prospect, though every year there do seem to be several (one usually misses, destroying the can't miss label, but whatever...see Brian Bullington, Brien Taylor, Matt Anderson, and Paul Wilson among others).  For all the Josh Hamiltons out there that made it after seemingly being out of baseball, there is another that actually IS out of baseball.  Such is the odd nature of the MLB draft when it comes to the big money players.  Feast or famine, outhouse or mansion.

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International scouting is similar.  Those who spend the most money internationally seem to find and acquire the most talented youngsters there.  This is where many of the big money teams replenish their minor league systems.  The Royals neglected this area under Allard Baird as well, just as they did the draft.  But, just like in the draft, an international player's development, sometimes even his age, is not predictable.  A 16 year old shortstop from the Dominican touted as the next A-Rod might be that, but he also might be Tony Pena Jr. or Angel Berroa.  At 16, it's hard to say whether or not the kid will grow, turn awkward, even maybe put on weight and become fat, lose speed.  Further, he may actually have been 20, lied to get into an Academy, and increase his value before his signing.  (See below)  In general, the international scouting and signing process is just as much of a crapshoot as the draft is, though it seems to produce just as much top-end talent in the long run.   Again, Dayton Moore wants to increase spending in this area, and he has done so dramatically.  Optimistic?

via mlbfever.mlblogs.com

I really pulled one over on them then...but now I feel my age.  At least I'm not paying for it.

All that said, this is what our General Manager wants to gamble on.  He thinks that with the right scouting and the right drafting, not being shy about pricetags, he can fill the minors with talented players sufficient to develop and rise to the MLB level, enough to turn around the fortunes of our beloved Royals.  It is a noble task, but in my opinion, it is a more arrogant plan than an intelligent one.  To think that one scout, one GM, one person can have the intelligence to draft or sign wisely presumes too much about the draft  or the international scouting climate itself.  To say that it is possible to draft "correctly" is to say that one GM is smarter than the rest.  This does not hold true; how else do so many first round picks flop while 30th round guys somehow make it to the bigs and succeed?  Miguel Tejada or Angel Berroa?  Failure is part of the draft and international signings as much as scouting is.  And this is where our money should be going?  Sure, you can increase your chances of succeeding by signing the expensive guys like the big-spending teams do, but in reality you are not gaining any competitive advantage by doing so.  You are just competing normally.  The draft and the international free agent market are not market inefficiencies to be exploited.  Spending on them is simply different than the Allard Baird regime; spending in these areas is just what a franchise is expected and supposed to do.

via imagecache2.allposters.com

 

We have heard much of the fact that the Royals have spent record amounts on their drafting in the last three draft-classes, and this year will be no different.  After Aaron Crow signs, and I believe he will, we will break our own record again with money spent on the draft.  No doubt that we will have a better organization, depth-wise, afterwards.  However, spending $15 million on the draft is hardly what I would call wise spending.  To put us on a normal organizational path, it is only one necessary part.  For the Royals and for Dayton Moore, this draft spending has been talked about sometimes as an alternative to big free agent spending, as the way to actaully have long-term sustainable success instead of big contracts and big egos.  But what is more predictable?  Free agent production or a player's development?  Some balance is needed in the spending.

In Dayton's defense, he has argued that front-spending on the draft and scouting, COUPLED with WISE free agent signings will bring MLB success, but that only drafting and scouting well can produce organizational depth.  As for the wise free agent signings...yeah, you know. 

via redstatebluestate.mlblogs.com

2 years, $9.5 million

via theghostofmoonlightgraham.files.wordpress.com

3 years, $36 million

via pictopia.com

What is a walk?  Why would I want to not swing?

So all we have to be cheery about as Royals fans is the drafting, the process, the hope that the spending on the unpredictable development tracks of highly touted draftpicks and Latin American prospects will produce success for our franchise.  I don't buy it.  Other franchises have been doing this for years, and it is normal, not an innovative organizational strategy.  Failure and success are friends in the drafting and international signing game.  It is better now that we ARE spending this money in these areas, but it is not the solution to anything.  We are left to hope and trust that Dayton and his guys can be better at it than the others.  As Bad Santa said: shit in one hand, wish in the other...see which one shows up first.  While we may have a lot of money invested, the high likelihood is that most or all of these players recently drafted, internationally signed or touted won't be the ones to bring us out of the humongous hole our organization is in.  All we can do is wish.

via weblogs.baltimoresun.com

 

 

"Change is not a destination, just as hope is not a strategy."-Rudi Giuliani

Poll

What do you think of the process?

33%

I trust that it will work

14 votes

19%

I don't think it will work, but it's the best we can do

8 votes

7%

It's a waste to spend record amounts of money on the draft and in the international signing areas; average spending would be fine

3 votes

40%

Only Bryce Harper can save the process

17 votes

42 votes | Poll has closed